Saturday, August 31, 2013

The Dog Days are Over

I haven't written anything this summer, because a part of my past that I thought was cured forever has made a sudden reappearance in my life. After it came on strong in my early 20's, threatening every other aspect of my life, some very smart and hard-working people did their best to rid me of it back in 2004. I am grateful for that. After the events of that autumn I could not- would not- allow myself to imagine a future with it in my life. And for a few glorious years, I was free of it. I have to admit, as time passed I noticed some warning signs this day would come. Not full-on symptoms, just a twinge every now and then to remind me it was there, and in some ways it always will be. So it wasn't a total shock when the full recurrence set in. Sometime between January and March of 2013, I decided I was going to be a Magic: the Gathering player again. Not in a "I have a deck, we could play a few games for fun" kind of way. In a "Where am I supposed to find the Mutavaults to keep playing Standard next month? Man, my box of Theros better be all kinds of awesome or I'm gonna have to sell a kidney or something." kind of way. So that's where I've been. I've been having fun with it and it turns out that years of experience at something do make you better. If I can find a way to write about Magic that will make sense to people who didn't understand a word of this, I might do it. It's social and creative, and it's great practice for not being a jerk.

But for right now, 10 weeks of baseball passed and I haven't said a word. With just one month left in the regular season, it's time to start thinking about who's going to win it all. If you want to know who's going to make the playoffs, you can either wait a month, or you can read everyone else on the internet's guesses. I'm going to look at the four teams to take most seriously today.

Division I: The Favorites

1. Detroit Tigers. Everyone knows about Miggy, and the three guys who have each pitched like an ace at times this season. Let's not downplay the coolness (if meaninglessness) of Max Scherzer's shiny win-loss record. And let's recognize that Miggy does things with a bat that we've never seen in our lifetimes, and other than the lifetime of PED whispers he's in for, nothing sucks about that. But ever since they've moved Benoit to the ninth inning, they've been able to close out games and the biggest "Yeah, but..." about Detroit is gone. It barely seems worth it to mention how their huge division lead means the whole pitching staff will be rested going into the Division Series. But that too, anyway.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers. Two months ago, these guys were six games under .500 and thirteen games behind the best record in the NL- then the Pirates. Now they're 3 back of the league's best record, they're going to coast to an NL West crown, and they have the best possible game 1 starter in Clayton Kershaw. Maybe Puig shuts down against postseason pitching. Maybe Matt Kemp doesn't make it all the way back, but they have too many guys playing well for any of that to sink them. The people who run this team wanted to build an instant contender, and they actually got it done. Nice.

3. Boston Red Sox. I guess the other end of the Adrian Gonzalez trade worked out ok, too. I didn't think either the existing core nor Ben Cherington's free agent signings were anything to get excited about. Apparently, as a fan with no experience working in the game and only minimal experience writing about it, I still have things to learn. Every position player decision- Napoli, Victorino, keeping Ellsbury- they've all worked out perfectly, and the team scores runs like nobody's business. I still wouldn't put money on a team running out Peavy, Lester, and Lackey in a postseason series, but you never know who's going to randomly throw seven shutout innings in the playoffs.

4. St. Louis Cardinals. Of course Matt Carpenter shows up from the minors, plays second base every day, and leads the league in runs. And of course Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, and Shelby Miller are all good enough right now to fill out a major league rotation, even if Miller didn't have a great August and maybe he'll get Strasburged. It's not exciting, what the Cardinals do, unless you like winning. No matter how it looks on paper, this team's core players and reputation make any team playing them an underdog.