Most of baseball took this past week off, so I did the same. Time to start making up for it with a lightning round.
12/7: Marlins sign IF Rafael Furcal, 1 year, $3.5M. Any new position players the Marlins bring in can't hurt. While Furcal no longer gets enough extra-base hits to be considered an upgrade for most teams, and while it remains to be seen if he can handle a position change this late in his career, he's probably better than Donovan Solano. Maybe only by a little.
12/7: Astros sign RP Chad Qualls, 2 years, $5.95M. The 'stros have made a few additions to the big league club this winter, but I'm not sure any of them are really upgrades. Signing a replaceable right-handed reliever like Qualls is one such move. Maybe his presence lifts them from a 60-win season to a 61-win season.
12/7: Red Sox sign RP Edward Mujica, 2 years, $9.5M. Mujica is a step up from replaceable reliever, but his home run and K rates are cause for concern going to the AL East and Fenway Park. Could be another misstep from the GM who brought you Andrew Bailey, Joel Hanrahan, and others. Then again, none of those guys had an awesome nickname like "Chief". Also, said GM presided over the 2013 World Series champions. So, again, there's a nonzero chance he knows his business better than I do.
12/8: Mets sign Curtis Granderson, 4 years, $60M. This is one of my favorite moves of the winter. Not an overly long contract (Granderson will play next year at age 33) at about the going rate for a power hitter, and it fills a position where the Mets had a real need. Consistent power and durability mean there's every reason to believe Granderson is going to be an asset in the field and at the plate for at least half this contract. Also- you're saved, Mets fans. No more Jordanny Valdespin. Granderson and Chris Young are a murderer's row compared to what they've been running out there in recent years.
12/10: Marlins sign 1B/OF Garrett Jones, 2 years, $7.75M. He's got some power, but he strikes out too much and he's not regarded as a good defensive player anywhere. The Marlins already had a guy just like that, except Logan Morrison is still young enough to hope for some improvement. Whoops. The Marlins' whole first baseman shuffle got them nowhere in their quest for a major league-caliber offense.
12/10: Rockies acquire SP Brett Anderson from A's for SP Drew Pomeranz and SP prospect Chris Jensen. A salary dump by Oakland, but with some upside coming back. Jensen was old for his league in 2013 and may not even be a prospect, but his peripherals were nice last season. Pomeranz, 25, found himself demoted to AA last year but injuries haven't completely ruined his promise. Anderson is also 25 and injury-prone, but he's got a major league track record and a contract that was reasonable when the A's gave it to him. This could be nothing-for-nothing, but I'll always take the upside on strikeout pitchers leaving the Rockies organization.
12/10: White Sox trade SP Hector Santiago to Diamondbacks for OF Adam Eaton. Diamondbacks trade Santiago and SP Tyler Skaggs to Angels for IF/OF Mark Trumbo. This is going to be a fun one to look back on in five years. Just to make a snap judgement, I like it for the Angels the most, because they got two pre-arbitration arms that could quite easily make their rotation. The Sox also did well, because Santiago's sub-4 ERA in 2013 had some fluky indicators and they potentially solved their perennial CF hole with Eaton. The Diamondback paid through the nose for power hitting, simple as that. Trumbo looks to be heading into Adam Dunn territory when it comes to swinging and missing, and it's going to take a lot of homers to make up for poor OBP's and bad defense. It's not Myers-for-Shields bad, but unless Kevin Towers hits upon the magical combination of grit and clubhouse chemistry that leads to the postseason, moves like this one should threaten his job security.
12/11: Mariners sign 1B/OF Corey Hart, 1 year, $6M. Hart's coming off two knee surgeries and heads to a place where 1B/DH types are plentiful and home runs go to die. I recommend nihilism for any Mariners fans who happen to read this. It'll make everything that's yet to come so much easier.
12/11: Pirates sign SP Edinson Volquez, 1 year, $5M. If Pirates fans are hoping this works out like the Liriano signing, well, I hope they continue to hope. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. Even if I find it sorely misplaced in this situation. Unless ownership's ready to give the payroll a permanent boost- and I don't see it happening- deals like this represent all kinds of missed opportunities. Someone else could be taking those starts and making that money, and whoever those someone elses could be, they're probably better at baseball than Volquez.
12/11: Pirates re-sign SP Charlie Morton, 3 years, $27M. Morton, for example, is better than Volquez. It's an unexciting sign for the Pirates, and given that 2013 was a career year for Morton in almost all categories, it's reasonable to expect a backslide. But he's only getting paid to be average, and while that's his ceiling, it's not an unrealistic one.
12/11: A's trade RP Jerry Blevins to Nationals for OF prospect Billy Burns. The A's get a speedy outfield prospect with plate discipline, and the Nats get a 30-year-old lefty reliever. I like it for the A's, but as a win-now move it's okay for the Nats. They're going to have Harper, Span, and Werth until half past forever anyway.
12/11: Tigers sign OF Rajai Davis, 2 years, $10M. This was not the move Tigers fans were anticipating when Dave Dombrowski traded away Fielder and Fister and cleared payroll space. Nothing wrong with having a decent defensive fourth outfielder, but it's hard to believe the Tigers are done making moves.
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Nothing's Gonna Ruin My Holiday
I've been participating in a mental illness support group for the past two years-plus. A lot of my fellow bipolar sufferers have problems around this time of year. Trying to put on a happy face to match the people you share a holiday with, coming to the end of a year uncertain what the next twelve months will bring, that sort of thing. I am not one of those people. Christmas is and always has been my favorite day of the year. I have a generally cool family, we really do care about each other, and that's always come first on Christmas. I know a lot of people who can't say the same for themselves, so I'm always grateful that when the year comes to a close I've got good people in my life. Here's my Christmas timeline, as we count down the hours to Christmas #32 in the life of The Everlasting Dave. Some dates may be off, but I kept it as close as I could.
1982-88: No clear memories of any of this, just establishing the traditions we kept for years. Reading "'Twas The Night Before Christmas" on Christmas Eve. Decorating the tree with ornaments we still have to this day. Hanging the stockings. Christmas morning at home, always getting pretty great gifts, especially considering that my parents never had tons of money. Going to my grandparents' house for Christmas night, with big extended family and a big dinner. Even with just a couple gifts per person, the pile of presents spilled out across the living room and by the end of the night wrapping paper was everywhere.
1989: This is an estimate- it may have been '90 or '91- but a friend of my grandparents gave me my first Walkman on Christmas, along with a cassingle of a Chicago Cubs rally song. I started borrowing my sister's REM and Jesus Jones tapes, and within a few years my collection of radio mixtapes and store-bought albums on tape were my most prized possessions. Maybe the same year, maybe a year or two later, my aunt gave my parents the first CD player we ever had and a copy of "A Very Special Christmas", the pop-stars-doing-Christmas-Carols album. I still love the U2 and Run-DMC songs (Christmas in Hollis is my favorite non-punk Christmas song), and I'm pretty sure Bruce Springsteen's "Merry Christmas Baby" is the reason I cannot stand The Boss to this day.
1992: The Christmas of Super Nintendo. First kid on my block- maybe my whole school- to have one. I beat my dad in John Madden Football (the first one) on a last-second field goal to break the system in, and my sister and I spent most of the next week trying to beat Super Mario World, then beating it again and again.
1994: My grandparents had moved to Florida, so we went down there for Christmas. I was 12 years old and completely geeked out over this alternative rock thing, so my gifts included copies of Nirvana's Unplugged in New York, Stone Temple Pilots' Purple, and (I believe) Offspring's Smash. I still have the first two tapes. I also remember swimming in December, which was mind-blowing to me at the time. My sister tried to get me to have some of my grandparents' booze while we stayed up late watching a Green Day concert on MTV. I said no.
1995: We went to my aunt's house in Virginia this year. I have three clear memories of this: My dad being strongly affected by a Christmas mass in a big beautiful church, my sister being jealous that I got Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness (still on cassette!) and she was stuck with Presidents of the United States of America, and receiving from my aunt some amount of internet time via dialup on her laptop. I was entranced and spent the whole time on MTV.com. In retrospect, this Christmas was a blowout win for me.
1996: I got my first CD player, a Jeep boombox, and my first CD: Beck's Odelay. This year, New Year's was a bigger deal than Christmas for me, because I had a Magic: the Gathering night with a bunch of friends on New Year's Eve. A few weeks later, we would get our first PC and I could go on MTV.com in the comfort of my own home. Score.
1998: Back to Florida to spend Christmas with my grandparents, but the big gift was a trip a bit further south to Miami to meet in person with my internet girlfriend. That was probably the best Christmas present ever, and for at least a couple years, those few days in Miami were the best days of my life.
2003: Christmas in chemo. That pretty much says it all. I'm not sure who was there on which days that winter, but I know most of my family made some effort to get there and help out with transportation, medication, whatever was necessary. I like to say I've never had a bad Christmas, and if someone brings this one up, I say "Everyone else might have been worried, but have you ever been on IV Ativan? This was a merry Christmas." This is true, but more seriously, I remain humbled to this day that my family rallied around me the way they did. All the Magic cards and Pearl Jam bootlegs in the world don't compare to that level of suiting up and showing up. Magic cards and Pearl Jam bootlegs are still awesome, though.
2004: My first Christmas without any family. Good friends, my then-almost-inlaws, and the joy of no longer being hooked on pain meds and benzos. A literal and symbolic end to the nightmare that was my late 2004.
2008: Our first Christmas after the passing of my then-girlfriend's father, we split the day between my family and hers. A lot of time in transit, but also lot of good time spent with good people. There was a really good picture taken of us toward the end of the day, where you can see so much exhaustion and contentment and, I think, some hope.
2010: I consider this the first Christmas of the rest of my life. I was in a mental hospital until just a few days before Christmas, and I spent much of the day at my uncle's house, drinking beer and trying not to say much of anything. The big upside to this Christmas was that it was the first one I feel I was truly selfless, spending most of my money on gifts for others instead of worrying about myself. It felt good and I try to do at least a little of that every year now.
2012: The best Christmas ever. My terminally-ill sister, both my parents, and I spent the day together at my dad's place. Gifts weren't the point- a couple jokey things, some gestures, whatever- but getting to marathon Simpsons and Family Guy one last time with my sister is one of the best Christmas memories I'll ever have.
Sunday, December 22, 2013
2013: The Year in Music
I'm the kind of guy who's crazy about top ten lists. Counted among the silly things I've ranked in this way are Magic: the Gathering cards (Might of Oaks #1!) and Simpsons episodes (Stonecutters, baby.). But the most important of these is the annual top ten songs list. Please remember, music is a completely subjective thing, so the songs that hit me right are no doubt completely different from the songs you liked. I'm not a music critic because I don't believe in telling others to agree with me because I'm somehow better educated or gifted with better taste. Also, I'm heavily biased toward what used to be called alternative rock- you know, punk, grunge, sometimes a little bit of industrial or pop-rock. The bands I loved the most at age 12 are mostly still around today, and they've all inspired waves of imitators, some of whom are pretty good in their own right. 2013 was a good year for this kind of music. 2012's year-end list was clogged with Local H, Green Day, and Fiona Apple because there weren't that many albums I was interested in. 2013 was the complete opposite, thanks to a number of year-end lists that were pretty well aligned with my tastes and exposed me to some new bands, and I had no trouble picking ten different artists for ten spots. So without further ado, here they are: The Everlasting Dave's ten favorite songs of 2013.
10. Drenge- I Wanna Break You In Half. If Glenn Danzig hooked up with Jack and Meg White to make a grunge-punk garage rock album, I think it would sound a lot like these two British brothers. Thrashing rock riffs, bellowing vocals, and slightly disturbing lyrics made their self-titled debut one of my favorite albums of the year.
9. The Orwells- Other Voices. These teenagers from Elmhurst, IL never cease to amaze and give me hope that rock and roll has a future. "Other Voices" is a rocker that fills the void left when The Strokes suddenly and inexplicably became terrible.
8. Pearl Jam- Mind Your Manners. There was a time when the existence of a new Pearl Jam album would lead to two questions: Which four songs would make my top ten, and which one would be number one overall. (Light Years, Love Boat Captain, Wasted Reprise, and Force of Nature were all either my top song for their year or serious contenders for the spot.) "Lightning Bolt", though, was an album I couldn't fully embrace. Too much boring slow stuff, and most of the rockers bordered on self-plagiarism. The lead single was the exception, a worthy addition to the pantheon of great Pearl Jam songs.
7. CHVRCHES- The Mother We Share. It can't all be hard rock. I have a weakness for guilty pleasure pop songs, and "The Mother We Share" is one I don't feel guilty about. It's got the brightness of a good Postal Service song, and Lauren Mayberry's pristine, often autotune-free vocals are pure sugar. It's also not lyrically vacant, which is the main thing that sets CHVRCHES apart from all the other (terrible) electropop acts for me.
6. The National- Demons. I love a good navelgaze as much as the next guy, and nobody since Robert Smith navelgazes quite like The National's Matt Berninger. A whole album of this mopey droning is a bit much, so I don't entirely buy into the hype for "Trouble Will Find Me", but the album has its highlights. "Demons" is a beautiful, ambiguous meditation on alienation. I really wish there was a less pretentious-sounding way to say that, but that's what it is.
5. Alkaline Trio- Pocket Knife. The Trio's blend of dark, violent emo lyrics and bright peppy punk-ish rock have always worked for me. In fact, 2001's "From Here to Infirmary" is my favorite album of all time. There's so much cynicism and dark humor in each Alkaline Trio song, it would take all day to unpack it all. I prefer to just rock out to it. "Pocket Knife" is from "Broken Wing", a companion EP to the 2013 LP "My Shame is True". Combined, the two are a contender for Album of the Year.
4. The Fratellis- Until She Saves My Soul. I think, at this point in time, The Fratellis are the most reliable band in garage rock. They've put out three albums since 2006, each one with a few throwaway songs, a few great singalong choruses, and a lot of fun rock and roll. 2013's "We Need Medicine" featured a little more effort on lyrical and musical complexity. Their gleeful idiocy collides with attempts at profundity with occasional hilarious misfires and a few really brilliant tracks. "Until She Saves My Soul", the album's closing number, delivers everything the band does well and nothing they don't.
3. Cage the Elephant- Black Widow. There's no emotional, intellectual, or technical reason for this song's high placement. It's all visceral. It's that if I were ever to say "That's my jam!" about a song from 2013, I would say it about Black Widow. It's big, brassy, funky, and totes magotes amazeballs.
2. Roddy Woomble- Trouble Your Door. Roddy Woomble is the Scottish frontman of the dormant rock band Idlewild, who are in the discussion for my favorite band of all time. Woomble's solo career is more alt-folk than anything, but 2013's "Listen to Keep" is a new side of him: the happy, optimistic side. "Trouble Your Door" is a country-tinged strummer with some of the jaw-dropping lyrical poetry that makes Woomble my favorite vocalist of all time.
1. The Wonder Years- The Devil In My Bloodstream. This is my easiest pick for "song of the year" since Green Day's "Letterbomb" grabbed me by the throat and refused to let go in 2004. I picked the other nine songs on this list, but this song picked me. I can't put into words what it is, exactly. It's the colorful imagery that resonates with me. It's songs that can sound either despaired and hopeless or boundlessly hopeful, depending on your mood. It's songs that go from quiet and contemplative to loud and defiant at a moment's notice. I wasn't asking for another one of these- Alkaline Trio's "Trucks and Trains", my all time favorite song, covers the same bases and does it better- but I'm always happy to discover another song that makes me go O_O. The Wonder Years do this very well, and while I've currently got a three-way tie atop my Album of the Year race, "The Devil In My Bloodstream" gives the tiniest of edges to a band that, a month ago, I only knew for their work doing punk covers of pop songs.
That's mine. What's yours?
10. Drenge- I Wanna Break You In Half. If Glenn Danzig hooked up with Jack and Meg White to make a grunge-punk garage rock album, I think it would sound a lot like these two British brothers. Thrashing rock riffs, bellowing vocals, and slightly disturbing lyrics made their self-titled debut one of my favorite albums of the year.
9. The Orwells- Other Voices. These teenagers from Elmhurst, IL never cease to amaze and give me hope that rock and roll has a future. "Other Voices" is a rocker that fills the void left when The Strokes suddenly and inexplicably became terrible.
8. Pearl Jam- Mind Your Manners. There was a time when the existence of a new Pearl Jam album would lead to two questions: Which four songs would make my top ten, and which one would be number one overall. (Light Years, Love Boat Captain, Wasted Reprise, and Force of Nature were all either my top song for their year or serious contenders for the spot.) "Lightning Bolt", though, was an album I couldn't fully embrace. Too much boring slow stuff, and most of the rockers bordered on self-plagiarism. The lead single was the exception, a worthy addition to the pantheon of great Pearl Jam songs.
7. CHVRCHES- The Mother We Share. It can't all be hard rock. I have a weakness for guilty pleasure pop songs, and "The Mother We Share" is one I don't feel guilty about. It's got the brightness of a good Postal Service song, and Lauren Mayberry's pristine, often autotune-free vocals are pure sugar. It's also not lyrically vacant, which is the main thing that sets CHVRCHES apart from all the other (terrible) electropop acts for me.
6. The National- Demons. I love a good navelgaze as much as the next guy, and nobody since Robert Smith navelgazes quite like The National's Matt Berninger. A whole album of this mopey droning is a bit much, so I don't entirely buy into the hype for "Trouble Will Find Me", but the album has its highlights. "Demons" is a beautiful, ambiguous meditation on alienation. I really wish there was a less pretentious-sounding way to say that, but that's what it is.
5. Alkaline Trio- Pocket Knife. The Trio's blend of dark, violent emo lyrics and bright peppy punk-ish rock have always worked for me. In fact, 2001's "From Here to Infirmary" is my favorite album of all time. There's so much cynicism and dark humor in each Alkaline Trio song, it would take all day to unpack it all. I prefer to just rock out to it. "Pocket Knife" is from "Broken Wing", a companion EP to the 2013 LP "My Shame is True". Combined, the two are a contender for Album of the Year.
4. The Fratellis- Until She Saves My Soul. I think, at this point in time, The Fratellis are the most reliable band in garage rock. They've put out three albums since 2006, each one with a few throwaway songs, a few great singalong choruses, and a lot of fun rock and roll. 2013's "We Need Medicine" featured a little more effort on lyrical and musical complexity. Their gleeful idiocy collides with attempts at profundity with occasional hilarious misfires and a few really brilliant tracks. "Until She Saves My Soul", the album's closing number, delivers everything the band does well and nothing they don't.
3. Cage the Elephant- Black Widow. There's no emotional, intellectual, or technical reason for this song's high placement. It's all visceral. It's that if I were ever to say "That's my jam!" about a song from 2013, I would say it about Black Widow. It's big, brassy, funky, and totes magotes amazeballs.
2. Roddy Woomble- Trouble Your Door. Roddy Woomble is the Scottish frontman of the dormant rock band Idlewild, who are in the discussion for my favorite band of all time. Woomble's solo career is more alt-folk than anything, but 2013's "Listen to Keep" is a new side of him: the happy, optimistic side. "Trouble Your Door" is a country-tinged strummer with some of the jaw-dropping lyrical poetry that makes Woomble my favorite vocalist of all time.
1. The Wonder Years- The Devil In My Bloodstream. This is my easiest pick for "song of the year" since Green Day's "Letterbomb" grabbed me by the throat and refused to let go in 2004. I picked the other nine songs on this list, but this song picked me. I can't put into words what it is, exactly. It's the colorful imagery that resonates with me. It's songs that can sound either despaired and hopeless or boundlessly hopeful, depending on your mood. It's songs that go from quiet and contemplative to loud and defiant at a moment's notice. I wasn't asking for another one of these- Alkaline Trio's "Trucks and Trains", my all time favorite song, covers the same bases and does it better- but I'm always happy to discover another song that makes me go O_O. The Wonder Years do this very well, and while I've currently got a three-way tie atop my Album of the Year race, "The Devil In My Bloodstream" gives the tiniest of edges to a band that, a month ago, I only knew for their work doing punk covers of pop songs.
That's mine. What's yours?
Saturday, December 21, 2013
Winning the Winter, part 7
Teams keep making moves, so I have to keep saying stuff about them. That's how it works.
12/6: Marlins sign C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 3 years, $21M. In an offseason where most free agents are exceeding their expected contracts, this one stands out as a team-friendly deal. Poor OBP's and strikeout rates have nearly canceled out Salty's power throughout his career, but he can hit better than most catchers. His defensive numbers are mixed, but he ranked second in the AL last year in throwing out baserunners. To Marlins fans, the addition of any above-average position player should feel like a huge win, and that's how I see this one. Unless Marlins Park completely robs him of his offensive value, he'll more than earn his contract.
12/6: Astros sign SP Scott Feldman, 3 years, $30M. This is the opposite of the Salty deal. Feldman is a well below-average pitcher, and there's no reason to believe he's about to turn a corner. The argument of "someone has to throw those innings" only flies when you're defending cheap, short-term contracts like the kind Feldman should have been offered. He won't even be an appealing piece of July trade bait unless he stays healthy and adequate till July 2016. On the other hand, if the goal is to make it 4 first-overall draft picks in 4 years, then the Astros win this deal.
12/6: Red Sox re-sign 1B Mike Napoli, 2 years, $32M. Napoli was in line for a three year deal last winter before his physical revealed a hip issue and the Red Sox lowered their offer to $5M with incentives for one year. After he hit all the incentives in that contract, the Sox chose to keep him around for two more years. Had they just kept the original contract, they would have saved something in the $12M range. Still, these are the World Series champions we're talking about, and keeping their second-best power hitter and first-best beard seems like a good call. There's risk, but power is expensive and hard to find. I think the Red Sox did well to keep what they had.
12/7: Yankees sign CF Jacoby Ellsbury, 7 years, $153M. I'll admit it, I enjoyed reading the news of this signing. While everyone was waiting for the Yankees to "get serious" about negotiating with Robinson Cano, they go out and steal one of the best players from their biggest rival instead. That was a sick burn on both Cano and the Red Sox, who I count as losers here. That doesn't necessarily make the Yankees winners, though. Once you go up over $20M a year on a player, it makes it difficult for the player to produce enough to justify the cost. Right now, Ellsbury's an asset whose combination of up-the-middle defense, speed, and on-base ability enable him to deliver that kind of value. There's little question that he'll be worth it in 2014, and little question that he'll be an albatross by 2020. It's just a matter of when he stops being a borderline MVP candidate, and how far this winter's spending spree takes the Yankees. One World Series ring, especially on the heels of Boston's third title of the century, would make all kinds of negative consequences palatable to the Steinbrenners and Yankee fans. But since "I guess we'll see" is a copout, I'll say I think Cano will come closer to living up to his contract than Ellsbury. And who knows, if the Yankees had just gone to $200M early in November, maybe that gets it done with Cano.
12/7: Yankees re-sign SP Hiroki Kuroda, 1 year, $16M. With the Yankees so starved for pitching, this deal was practically a necessity. Kuroda's been outstanding in his two years in New York, and although he'll be 39 before the start of the season, he'll still likely be the Yankees' best or second-best starting pitcher. I think the people of Japan are losers here since Kuroda's pitching career will now likely end stateside. The Yankees are winners in the sense that had Kuroda chosen Japan or retirement, it wouldn't have been realistic for them to build a decent pitching staff without blowing past the luxury tax threshold. It might not be realistic anyway.
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Walkin' slowly down the Hall of Fame
In the midst of the frenzy of relief pitcher signings and trades of average catchers, I wanted to take the opportunity to take some kind of unnoticed, unheard stand. If you know baseball at all, you know the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) has been derelict in their Hall of Fame election duties ever since the BALCO scandal broke. Their argument, repeated en masse by voting results, is "Nobody who played in the 90's is a Hall of Famer because steroids maybe!" I'd like to put aside the conceit of using baseball players as moral actors, because that isn't what they are, but we're not allowed to do that these days. Instead, I'll just ask for consistency. If it's OK that Hank Aaron used amphetamines, then it's OK that Mark McGwire used steroids. You can go on down the line with this- whether it was cocaine, amphetamines, steroids, or just being a terrible person, there is no 'clean' period in baseball history. You can tell me half this year's ballot doesn't deserve enshrinement because they maybe, probably, or definitely used performance-enhancing drugs. To that I say, welcome to baseball. Guys do bad stuff. Get over it. I believe great players are marked by great numbers, great consistency, and usually both. If they achieve it, they're Hall of Famers. Let our children and grandchildren decide if the transgressions of the 90's and 00's were really that much worse than the cocaine 80's, the amphetamine 60's, or the segregated first half of the 20th century. And the members of the BBWAA who no longer follow baseball but engage in blanket refusals to vote for anyone because they're too lazy to find the facts to match their moralizing and really just want the kids to get offa their lawn- they can fuck off and forfeit their ballot, in whichever order they choose. Till that day, here's my (Sadly limited to ten players) hypothetical Hall of Fame Ballot.
(Apologies to Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina, who would be easy ins if the ballot wasn't clogged. But if the ballot wasn't clogged, then there would be no BBWAA intransigence to write about and I wouldn't have to bother with this post.)
1. Greg Maddux. 4 straight Cy Youngs (92-95). 5 more seasons finishing in the top 5 of Cy voting. 8-time All Star. Best pitcher of the 90's, and I don't think there's really a discussion to be had here, given that Pedro wasn't Pedro until 1997 and The Big Unit took till the mid-90's to put it all together. Maddux represents a litmus test of sorts: he is so clearly one of the best of all time, there is no rationale that leads to not voting for him. I think Hall of Fame voters who pass on Mad Dog- even if the rest of their ballot is blank- should be shown the door and never welcomed back in. The Hall of Fame is for great ballplayers. If you consider yourself important enough to allow your problems with the era to prevent you from doing your job as a judge of greatness.... Well, I already said it.
2. Tom Glavine. He was never as dominant as his long-time Braves teammate, but his peak actually lasted quite a bit longer. Glavine's final truly great season was probably his 1998 Cy Young year, but he managed 4 All-Star appearances after that and his decline wasn't quite as sharp as Maddux's. And if you're into counting stats, hey, 300 wins. That Glavine is such a clear HOFer and still so clearly inferior to Maddux should remind us how important the Braves were to 90's baseball. There's always a team that's always in it, but Atlanta was that team for an ungodly length of time.
3. Frank Thomas. Dude had a .454 OBP as a rookie. His OBP didn't dip below .400 until 1998, the year where Jerry Reinsdorf decided to scrap the team and go with the Big Hurt, Ray Durham, and 7 rookies in the lineup. In 1994, he lapped the league in offensive production. He had seven effing years with an OPS over 1.000. I'm hopeful Thomas actually has a chance, because he was vocally anti-PED throughout his career and mopped the floor with the league anyway.
4. Craig Biggio. Played catcher and second base while turning in season after season of high average, high OPB, high doubles offense. Won 4 straight Gold Gloves at second base. 7-time All Star. An excellent base thief, with a career success rate of just under 80%. Durable. Led the league in runs, doubles, steals, and hit-by-pitch at various times. 2nd all time in hit-by-pitch. Crossed the magic 3,000 hit mark in his final season.
5. Barry Bonds. Your position on this player determines whether or not you and I can have a conversation about baseball. In a just world, he'd be a clear first-ballot Hall of Famer and we would get to relive the two five-year spans in which he was the most dominant offensive player on the planet. In the world where we live, he may never get in. Because OMG STEROIDS YOU GUYS. Look, if your position forces you to deem one of the three greatest hitters of all time unworthy of the Hall of Fame, your position is stupid and so are you. I wish I could be nicer about this. I really do. But more than that, I wish you could be smarter about this.
6. Roger Clemens. See above. I hate this guy, and I believe every nasty scandalous story about him. Doesn't matter. He's a clear Hall of Famer and among the best baseball players of all time. If you have a vote and you don't vote for Bonds or Clemens, you are saying that baseball from 1990-2008 has no credibility. And if you're saying that, well, first of all, congrats on wasting your life. Secondly, let's apply the same standards to baseball before 1990. I think the game falls short of your purity edict there too, but writers of the day were comfortable with it. That says more about you than it does the players under consideration. And you're not interesting enough for that "Why I don't want anyone to be a Hall of Famer" column you've already written to make up for another summer without an induction ceremony.
7. Alan Trammell. The first of two 80's guys on my ballot, I give Trammell a vote because 1) he's running out of chances, and 2) his career would be much more appreciated if he were having it now. Shortstops who play the position acceptably and draw plenty of walks just aren't something we see all the time. He was overshadowed by Cal Ripken throughout his prime, but a better comparison is Barry Larkin, a contemporary who earned election by virtue of playing in the National League while Ripken and Trammell were in the AL. Trammell (and his keystone partner Lou Whitaker) had a hell of a lot more to do with Detroit's good 80's teams than Jack Morris did.
8. Tim Raines. As Trammell was overshadowed by Ripken, so too was Raines overshadowed by Rickey Henderson in the "greatest leadoff hitter of all time"-off. I'm hopeful that the trend of Raines' growing vote totals continues and he gets in, but he may have another year or two to wait. He shouldn't. His steal success rate of 84.7% is 13th all time... And nobody above him is even close to his number of steal attempts. His longevity and his consistency in doing leadoff hitter things for most of his career make "Rock" an obvious Hall of Famer from my point of view.
9. Jeff Bagwell. Had seasons of 34, 39, and 43 homers while playing half his games in the Astrodome. Had 4 seasons of 39 or more homers after the move to Enron Field. Stole 202 bases. Remarkably durable up until his career-ending shoulder injury. Never had an OBP under .358, and that was in his final, injury-ridden season. Career OBP of .408. Had the misfortune of playing between 1990-2008, so probably won't get in.
10. Mike Piazza. He got more than 50% of the vote last year, and he should get in eventually. I could run down the numbers, but anyone who watched baseball when Piazza was at his peak knows this guy's a Hall of Famer. We knew when he retired. Hell, we knew when he was halfway through his career, answering questions about his sexuality in front of the New York media. He's not a maybe HOFer, he's not borderline. He's an all-time great. Obscene power from the catcher position. His defense was regularly derided, but the numbers suggest he was at least passable behind the plate. The 4 players with careers most similar to Piazza? Bench. Berra. Carter. Fisk. I've got him in that same class, and- like every other player in this post- the hall ain't worth a damn without him.
(Apologies to Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina, who would be easy ins if the ballot wasn't clogged. But if the ballot wasn't clogged, then there would be no BBWAA intransigence to write about and I wouldn't have to bother with this post.)
1. Greg Maddux. 4 straight Cy Youngs (92-95). 5 more seasons finishing in the top 5 of Cy voting. 8-time All Star. Best pitcher of the 90's, and I don't think there's really a discussion to be had here, given that Pedro wasn't Pedro until 1997 and The Big Unit took till the mid-90's to put it all together. Maddux represents a litmus test of sorts: he is so clearly one of the best of all time, there is no rationale that leads to not voting for him. I think Hall of Fame voters who pass on Mad Dog- even if the rest of their ballot is blank- should be shown the door and never welcomed back in. The Hall of Fame is for great ballplayers. If you consider yourself important enough to allow your problems with the era to prevent you from doing your job as a judge of greatness.... Well, I already said it.
2. Tom Glavine. He was never as dominant as his long-time Braves teammate, but his peak actually lasted quite a bit longer. Glavine's final truly great season was probably his 1998 Cy Young year, but he managed 4 All-Star appearances after that and his decline wasn't quite as sharp as Maddux's. And if you're into counting stats, hey, 300 wins. That Glavine is such a clear HOFer and still so clearly inferior to Maddux should remind us how important the Braves were to 90's baseball. There's always a team that's always in it, but Atlanta was that team for an ungodly length of time.
3. Frank Thomas. Dude had a .454 OBP as a rookie. His OBP didn't dip below .400 until 1998, the year where Jerry Reinsdorf decided to scrap the team and go with the Big Hurt, Ray Durham, and 7 rookies in the lineup. In 1994, he lapped the league in offensive production. He had seven effing years with an OPS over 1.000. I'm hopeful Thomas actually has a chance, because he was vocally anti-PED throughout his career and mopped the floor with the league anyway.
4. Craig Biggio. Played catcher and second base while turning in season after season of high average, high OPB, high doubles offense. Won 4 straight Gold Gloves at second base. 7-time All Star. An excellent base thief, with a career success rate of just under 80%. Durable. Led the league in runs, doubles, steals, and hit-by-pitch at various times. 2nd all time in hit-by-pitch. Crossed the magic 3,000 hit mark in his final season.
5. Barry Bonds. Your position on this player determines whether or not you and I can have a conversation about baseball. In a just world, he'd be a clear first-ballot Hall of Famer and we would get to relive the two five-year spans in which he was the most dominant offensive player on the planet. In the world where we live, he may never get in. Because OMG STEROIDS YOU GUYS. Look, if your position forces you to deem one of the three greatest hitters of all time unworthy of the Hall of Fame, your position is stupid and so are you. I wish I could be nicer about this. I really do. But more than that, I wish you could be smarter about this.
6. Roger Clemens. See above. I hate this guy, and I believe every nasty scandalous story about him. Doesn't matter. He's a clear Hall of Famer and among the best baseball players of all time. If you have a vote and you don't vote for Bonds or Clemens, you are saying that baseball from 1990-2008 has no credibility. And if you're saying that, well, first of all, congrats on wasting your life. Secondly, let's apply the same standards to baseball before 1990. I think the game falls short of your purity edict there too, but writers of the day were comfortable with it. That says more about you than it does the players under consideration. And you're not interesting enough for that "Why I don't want anyone to be a Hall of Famer" column you've already written to make up for another summer without an induction ceremony.
7. Alan Trammell. The first of two 80's guys on my ballot, I give Trammell a vote because 1) he's running out of chances, and 2) his career would be much more appreciated if he were having it now. Shortstops who play the position acceptably and draw plenty of walks just aren't something we see all the time. He was overshadowed by Cal Ripken throughout his prime, but a better comparison is Barry Larkin, a contemporary who earned election by virtue of playing in the National League while Ripken and Trammell were in the AL. Trammell (and his keystone partner Lou Whitaker) had a hell of a lot more to do with Detroit's good 80's teams than Jack Morris did.
8. Tim Raines. As Trammell was overshadowed by Ripken, so too was Raines overshadowed by Rickey Henderson in the "greatest leadoff hitter of all time"-off. I'm hopeful that the trend of Raines' growing vote totals continues and he gets in, but he may have another year or two to wait. He shouldn't. His steal success rate of 84.7% is 13th all time... And nobody above him is even close to his number of steal attempts. His longevity and his consistency in doing leadoff hitter things for most of his career make "Rock" an obvious Hall of Famer from my point of view.
9. Jeff Bagwell. Had seasons of 34, 39, and 43 homers while playing half his games in the Astrodome. Had 4 seasons of 39 or more homers after the move to Enron Field. Stole 202 bases. Remarkably durable up until his career-ending shoulder injury. Never had an OBP under .358, and that was in his final, injury-ridden season. Career OBP of .408. Had the misfortune of playing between 1990-2008, so probably won't get in.
10. Mike Piazza. He got more than 50% of the vote last year, and he should get in eventually. I could run down the numbers, but anyone who watched baseball when Piazza was at his peak knows this guy's a Hall of Famer. We knew when he retired. Hell, we knew when he was halfway through his career, answering questions about his sexuality in front of the New York media. He's not a maybe HOFer, he's not borderline. He's an all-time great. Obscene power from the catcher position. His defense was regularly derided, but the numbers suggest he was at least passable behind the plate. The 4 players with careers most similar to Piazza? Bench. Berra. Carter. Fisk. I've got him in that same class, and- like every other player in this post- the hall ain't worth a damn without him.
Winning the Winter, part 6
More thoughts about baseball while I try to process Bad Religion's Christmas album. This is going to be one fine year to be writing a "year in music" post.
12/4: A's sign SP Scott Kazmir, 2 years, $22M. As of now, the bigger-name starting pitchers are all still on the board, but the run on second-tier starters continues here. Kazmir showed better control in 2013 than he ever did before, and the health and command issues that seemingly ended his career in 2011 appear solved. This is still more risk than Oakland typically takes on. The upside is significant, but is there another player who signed an 8-figure deal this winter and could realistically contribute nothing at all? If I'm an A's fan, I'm bummed they didn't get Tim Hudson instead. If I'm Scott Kazmir, I'm doing the happy prospector dance all day every day till spring training.
12/4: Tigers sign RP Joe Nathan, 2 years, $20M. While the huge number of potential closers on the market depressed offers for everyone else, Nathan still snagged a crazy-good deal for a 39-year-old reliever thanks to his status as probably the best one available. His walk rate jumped last year, but an unreal opponents' batting average meant his overall value was around his career peak. From Detroit's standpoint, this is just insurance against a repeat of the 2013 Bruce Rondon/ Jose Valverde shenanigans, and it's an expensive way to go. Even if we assume Nathan remains an elite 9th-inning option, the Tigers could probably have gotten more value out of signing two lesser relievers- keeping Jose Veras and Joaquin Benoit, just to name the obvious- for about the same cost. The blueprint of "Scherzer/Verlander/Sanchez throws 8 innings, Nathan throws 1" won't hold up all that often, so Dave Dombrowski better figure out where his depth's coming from right quick. Nathan wins for being an 8-figure closer, and the Tigers could potentially win if they make the postseason again. I'm not sure they will.
12/4: White Sox sign 1B Paul Konerko, 1 year, $2.25M. Ol' Paulie might be done, but good on the White Sox for letting him end his career on his terms. We've been lucky to watch him for these past 14 years and I'll miss him when he's gone. That said, Rick Hahn did the right thing in finding a new long-term solution (hopefully) in Jose Dariel Abreu. If Konerko hits well and earns a lineup spot over Abreu/Dunn, cool. If he doesn't and this is a farewell tour, that's ok too. Even though $2,250,000 is more money than I'm likely to see in my lifetime, I still feel like Paulie deserves credit for taking a massive pay cut that reflects his current value as a player. It's the kind of thing a player with more accomplishment than ego would do. And yet, we still live in a world where Derek Jeter is the poster-boy for classy baseballing.
12/4: Red Sox sign C A.J. Pierzynski, 1 year, $8.25M. Speaking of aging members of the 2005 White Sox, I love me some A.J. The advanced stats don't agree; they've got him somewhere between below-average and average regular for every year. But for 12 years running, he's been a durable starting catcher, supplied some power, and become as beloved by his teammates as he is behated by the rest of the league. He fits well with the post-Manny Red Sox plan of bringing in guys who are good baseball players and great teammates. I don't see any way this doesn't end with Boston becoming the fifth city to fall for A.J. They'll take a downgrade in production from Saltalamacchia, but a strong upgrade in Idiotness.
12/5: Mariners sign UT Willie Bloomquist, 2 years, $5.8M. Sigh. Stupid Mariners. Let's do a couple more so I don't end this post feeling bad for Dave Schoenfield.
12/5: Twins sign SP Phil Hughes, 3 years, $24M. As bad as the Nolasco signing is and will be, I think this one's got a chance to provide real value. $8M is what a number 4 or 5 starter makes these days, and getting out of Yankee Stadium might just let Hughes, age 27, come into his own as something a little better than that. A look at his home/road splits supports this to a degree, in that his road ERA is close to a full run lower than his home ERA and he's allowed more than twice as many home runs at home.
12/5: Brewers trade OF Norichika Aoki to Royals for RP Will Smith. The Brewers add a good lefty reliever who hasn't hit arbitration yet. Homers are a concern, but he boasts a shiny strikeout rate. In Aoki, the Royals get a good defensive right fielder who draws walks, and is also pre-arb for another year. The anti-Jeff Francoeur, basically. I see this as a steal for the Royals, because Smith would have to cut his homers allowed in half, maintain his strikeout rate, and pitch in the rotation to match Aoki's value. Weird trade for the Brewers to make. Clearing a space for Khris Davis might work out, but they should have been able to get more.
12/4: A's sign SP Scott Kazmir, 2 years, $22M. As of now, the bigger-name starting pitchers are all still on the board, but the run on second-tier starters continues here. Kazmir showed better control in 2013 than he ever did before, and the health and command issues that seemingly ended his career in 2011 appear solved. This is still more risk than Oakland typically takes on. The upside is significant, but is there another player who signed an 8-figure deal this winter and could realistically contribute nothing at all? If I'm an A's fan, I'm bummed they didn't get Tim Hudson instead. If I'm Scott Kazmir, I'm doing the happy prospector dance all day every day till spring training.
12/4: Tigers sign RP Joe Nathan, 2 years, $20M. While the huge number of potential closers on the market depressed offers for everyone else, Nathan still snagged a crazy-good deal for a 39-year-old reliever thanks to his status as probably the best one available. His walk rate jumped last year, but an unreal opponents' batting average meant his overall value was around his career peak. From Detroit's standpoint, this is just insurance against a repeat of the 2013 Bruce Rondon/ Jose Valverde shenanigans, and it's an expensive way to go. Even if we assume Nathan remains an elite 9th-inning option, the Tigers could probably have gotten more value out of signing two lesser relievers- keeping Jose Veras and Joaquin Benoit, just to name the obvious- for about the same cost. The blueprint of "Scherzer/Verlander/Sanchez throws 8 innings, Nathan throws 1" won't hold up all that often, so Dave Dombrowski better figure out where his depth's coming from right quick. Nathan wins for being an 8-figure closer, and the Tigers could potentially win if they make the postseason again. I'm not sure they will.
12/4: White Sox sign 1B Paul Konerko, 1 year, $2.25M. Ol' Paulie might be done, but good on the White Sox for letting him end his career on his terms. We've been lucky to watch him for these past 14 years and I'll miss him when he's gone. That said, Rick Hahn did the right thing in finding a new long-term solution (hopefully) in Jose Dariel Abreu. If Konerko hits well and earns a lineup spot over Abreu/Dunn, cool. If he doesn't and this is a farewell tour, that's ok too. Even though $2,250,000 is more money than I'm likely to see in my lifetime, I still feel like Paulie deserves credit for taking a massive pay cut that reflects his current value as a player. It's the kind of thing a player with more accomplishment than ego would do. And yet, we still live in a world where Derek Jeter is the poster-boy for classy baseballing.
12/4: Red Sox sign C A.J. Pierzynski, 1 year, $8.25M. Speaking of aging members of the 2005 White Sox, I love me some A.J. The advanced stats don't agree; they've got him somewhere between below-average and average regular for every year. But for 12 years running, he's been a durable starting catcher, supplied some power, and become as beloved by his teammates as he is behated by the rest of the league. He fits well with the post-Manny Red Sox plan of bringing in guys who are good baseball players and great teammates. I don't see any way this doesn't end with Boston becoming the fifth city to fall for A.J. They'll take a downgrade in production from Saltalamacchia, but a strong upgrade in Idiotness.
12/5: Mariners sign UT Willie Bloomquist, 2 years, $5.8M. Sigh. Stupid Mariners. Let's do a couple more so I don't end this post feeling bad for Dave Schoenfield.
12/5: Twins sign SP Phil Hughes, 3 years, $24M. As bad as the Nolasco signing is and will be, I think this one's got a chance to provide real value. $8M is what a number 4 or 5 starter makes these days, and getting out of Yankee Stadium might just let Hughes, age 27, come into his own as something a little better than that. A look at his home/road splits supports this to a degree, in that his road ERA is close to a full run lower than his home ERA and he's allowed more than twice as many home runs at home.
12/5: Brewers trade OF Norichika Aoki to Royals for RP Will Smith. The Brewers add a good lefty reliever who hasn't hit arbitration yet. Homers are a concern, but he boasts a shiny strikeout rate. In Aoki, the Royals get a good defensive right fielder who draws walks, and is also pre-arb for another year. The anti-Jeff Francoeur, basically. I see this as a steal for the Royals, because Smith would have to cut his homers allowed in half, maintain his strikeout rate, and pitch in the rotation to match Aoki's value. Weird trade for the Brewers to make. Clearing a space for Khris Davis might work out, but they should have been able to get more.
Monday, December 16, 2013
Winning the Winter, part 5
Magic tournament cancelled, nothing on TV, and I'm out of beer. I guess that means it's time to hit the most active December day in baseball history.
12/3: Reds trade C Ryan Hanigan to Diamondbacks for SP prospect David Holmberg. Diamondbacks trade Hanigan and RP Heath Bell to Rays for P Justin Choate and a player to be named later. Rays sign Hanigan, 3 years, $10.75M. I love three-way trades, whether they're ridiculously one-sided or they make sense from all sides. This is one of the latter. After signing Jose Molina to an extension, the Rays wanted more offense out of the catcher position. Even in a down year with part-time play, Hanigan walked more times than he struck out, and thanks to a perennially high walk rate he's regarded as a good offensive catcher. The Rays also added Bell, who might be almost finished, but might also provide the Rays with one of their signature out-of-nowhere great relief seasons. Remember, Fernando Rodney was a middle reliever with control issues before going to Tampa Bay and getting MVP votes. The Rays essentially acquired Bell and Hanigan for free by assuming half of Bell's 2013 salary. The Reds were going to give the bulk of catcher at-bats to 25-year-old former prospect Devin Mesoraco anyway, and they managed to get a low-ceiling, high-probability pitching prospect in Holmberg. Arizona was willing to give up that prospect just for the right to relieve themselves of Bell's salary. I think I like the Reds' side the most due to the value of young starting pitching, but if you wanted to argue that Hanigan is going to produce the most value of any of the players, that's fair. And while Arizona soon showed poor judgment in how they spent the money they saved, saving the money to begin with was a fine move. Three winners!
12/3: A's trade OF Seth Smith to Padres for RP Luke Gregerson. Billy Beane followed up his surprise acquisition of Jim Johnson by nabbing a strong setup man. With the exception of 2011, Gregerson has put up strong strikeout numbers and doesn't walk too many guys. Going from one pitcher's park to another should give him a strong platform year before he hits free agency. Smith should be a platoon outfielder, also one year from free agency. This move doesn't increase San Diego's chances of contending any time soon, but it should help Oakland some. A's get an easy win.
12/3: A's trade OF Michael Choice and IF Chris Bostick to Rangers for OF Craig Gentry and P Josh Lindblom. Choice has stuck in center field and shown good offensive ability through 4 years in the A's farm system. Gentry, formerly the Rangers' 4th outfielder, is a slightly above-average offensive player on the strength of good OBPs and baserunning. Lindblom is a quad-A throw-in, and Bostick is a 20 year old second baseman who played in A-ball last year. This might be a push, but I'll give the edge to the Rangers for getting the extra years of team control.
12/3: Yankees sign C Brian McCann, 5 years, $85M. It's good to have the old Yankees back- going all in on free agency to prop up a team that could be described as "aging" for fourteen years running. It could be that there just isn't enough there to get New York back to the postseason, but this is a legitimate difference-making addition. It also seemed like a foregone conclusion: the Yankees had as much interest in going forward with Francisco Cervelli as McCann did in not getting obscenely paid. Five years may not be too long for him- he'll play next season at 30- and we might see some incredible offensive numbers that deliver on a $17M salary. Nonethesame, 2014 is likely to be his best year in pinstripes and the Yankees' best shot to win with him. I'll call this a win for McCann no matter how the next five years in the Bronx shake down.
12/3: Twins sign SP Ricky Nolasco, 4 years, $47M. The Twins had plenty of space in their rotation after an abysmal 2013, and they've already acted decisively to address it. Aside from a career year at age 25, Nolasco has bounced between 0.7 and 1.8 WAR his entire career- an average pitcher, give or take. Market value for this kind of performance would be something like $28-30M over the same 4 years, so it's hard to say Nolasco didn't win this winter. The Twins are paying a ridiculous premium for health and consistent kind-of-adequacy. Oh, and this is the largest free agent contract the team has ever handed out. It's times like this I'm grateful I'm a White Sox fan.
12/3: Rockies trade OF Dexter Fowler to Astros for OF Brandon Barnes and SP Jordan Lyles. First, the bad news for Houston: Fowler is a Coors Field product, as witnessed by five seasons of OPS's 200 points higher at home. He's also a below-average defensive center fielder. Now, the good news: Barnes is a replacement player, and while Lyles is young enough to improve, three years of declining strikeout rates and climbing walk rates do not bode well for that. So this trade is probably nothing for nothing, with odds of Fowler or Lyles returning value cancelling out. Maybe there's symbolic value in Houston trading for an established Major League outfielder? Sure. Let's give Houston the win. Whatever.
12/3: Reds trade C Ryan Hanigan to Diamondbacks for SP prospect David Holmberg. Diamondbacks trade Hanigan and RP Heath Bell to Rays for P Justin Choate and a player to be named later. Rays sign Hanigan, 3 years, $10.75M. I love three-way trades, whether they're ridiculously one-sided or they make sense from all sides. This is one of the latter. After signing Jose Molina to an extension, the Rays wanted more offense out of the catcher position. Even in a down year with part-time play, Hanigan walked more times than he struck out, and thanks to a perennially high walk rate he's regarded as a good offensive catcher. The Rays also added Bell, who might be almost finished, but might also provide the Rays with one of their signature out-of-nowhere great relief seasons. Remember, Fernando Rodney was a middle reliever with control issues before going to Tampa Bay and getting MVP votes. The Rays essentially acquired Bell and Hanigan for free by assuming half of Bell's 2013 salary. The Reds were going to give the bulk of catcher at-bats to 25-year-old former prospect Devin Mesoraco anyway, and they managed to get a low-ceiling, high-probability pitching prospect in Holmberg. Arizona was willing to give up that prospect just for the right to relieve themselves of Bell's salary. I think I like the Reds' side the most due to the value of young starting pitching, but if you wanted to argue that Hanigan is going to produce the most value of any of the players, that's fair. And while Arizona soon showed poor judgment in how they spent the money they saved, saving the money to begin with was a fine move. Three winners!
12/3: A's trade OF Seth Smith to Padres for RP Luke Gregerson. Billy Beane followed up his surprise acquisition of Jim Johnson by nabbing a strong setup man. With the exception of 2011, Gregerson has put up strong strikeout numbers and doesn't walk too many guys. Going from one pitcher's park to another should give him a strong platform year before he hits free agency. Smith should be a platoon outfielder, also one year from free agency. This move doesn't increase San Diego's chances of contending any time soon, but it should help Oakland some. A's get an easy win.
12/3: A's trade OF Michael Choice and IF Chris Bostick to Rangers for OF Craig Gentry and P Josh Lindblom. Choice has stuck in center field and shown good offensive ability through 4 years in the A's farm system. Gentry, formerly the Rangers' 4th outfielder, is a slightly above-average offensive player on the strength of good OBPs and baserunning. Lindblom is a quad-A throw-in, and Bostick is a 20 year old second baseman who played in A-ball last year. This might be a push, but I'll give the edge to the Rangers for getting the extra years of team control.
12/3: Yankees sign C Brian McCann, 5 years, $85M. It's good to have the old Yankees back- going all in on free agency to prop up a team that could be described as "aging" for fourteen years running. It could be that there just isn't enough there to get New York back to the postseason, but this is a legitimate difference-making addition. It also seemed like a foregone conclusion: the Yankees had as much interest in going forward with Francisco Cervelli as McCann did in not getting obscenely paid. Five years may not be too long for him- he'll play next season at 30- and we might see some incredible offensive numbers that deliver on a $17M salary. Nonethesame, 2014 is likely to be his best year in pinstripes and the Yankees' best shot to win with him. I'll call this a win for McCann no matter how the next five years in the Bronx shake down.
12/3: Twins sign SP Ricky Nolasco, 4 years, $47M. The Twins had plenty of space in their rotation after an abysmal 2013, and they've already acted decisively to address it. Aside from a career year at age 25, Nolasco has bounced between 0.7 and 1.8 WAR his entire career- an average pitcher, give or take. Market value for this kind of performance would be something like $28-30M over the same 4 years, so it's hard to say Nolasco didn't win this winter. The Twins are paying a ridiculous premium for health and consistent kind-of-adequacy. Oh, and this is the largest free agent contract the team has ever handed out. It's times like this I'm grateful I'm a White Sox fan.
12/3: Rockies trade OF Dexter Fowler to Astros for OF Brandon Barnes and SP Jordan Lyles. First, the bad news for Houston: Fowler is a Coors Field product, as witnessed by five seasons of OPS's 200 points higher at home. He's also a below-average defensive center fielder. Now, the good news: Barnes is a replacement player, and while Lyles is young enough to improve, three years of declining strikeout rates and climbing walk rates do not bode well for that. So this trade is probably nothing for nothing, with odds of Fowler or Lyles returning value cancelling out. Maybe there's symbolic value in Houston trading for an established Major League outfielder? Sure. Let's give Houston the win. Whatever.
Friday, December 13, 2013
Winning the Winter, part 4
A baseball transaction lightning round for all the other baseball fans who stay up all night listening to Alkaline Trio.
11/26: Giants sign RP Javier Lopez, 3 years, $13M. 4 mil a year for a lefty specialist? This is just like Pence and Lincecum, signs that Brian Sabean would rather overpay to keep his own than put some thought into finding a better solution. Oh, and he's 36 years old. Good luck with that.
11/26: Mets sign OF Chris Young, 1 year, $7.25M. He's never been much for walks or not striking out, but the numbers say he's say he's a strong defensive outfielder and he's got some power. I'm not sure the Mets are in a place where marginal wins make a difference, but plugging Young into left field will make them a better team. Maybe a lot better, given his defensive prowess. With this and his upcoming moves, Sandy Alderson will force me to ask a question I thought I had a year to answer: Are the Mets sneaky contenders?
11/26: Reds sign UT Skip Schumaker, 2 years, $5M. The perfect Dusty Baker player: he can play almost anywhere, he swings at everything, he doesn't hit for power, he hustles like nobody's business. Too bad the Reds fired Baker after the season. This is actually a fair deal for what Schumaker brings, but what he brings approaches zero value.
11/27: Angels sign RP Joe Smith, 3 years, $15.75M. Smith did good work for the Indians the past few years, but as I said before, good organizations don't give 5 million dollars to relief pitchers these days. They develop them and get them for league-minimum deals. I guess since the Angels are in full go-for-it mode, they could have done worse than signing Smith. There's more good news coming in this series for Angels fans, so I won't totally dismiss this move. It does make them better, albeit at a high price.
11/29: Giants sign SP Ryan Vogelsong, 1 year, $5M. The delightful "Back from Japan" comeback story is over. Vogelsong is just another righthanded pitcher on the wrong side of the age curve now. Lucky for him, he's a Giant. We know what that means. Have some money, Ryan Vogelsong!
12/2: Blue Jays sign C Dioner Navarro, 2 years, $8M. I give props to Toronto's front office for recognizing a need and addressing it, but I'm still skeptical that Navarro can replicate his .856 OPS from last year's part time play with the Cubs. He's not that old, and he's hit at least reasonably well everywhere he's gone. So I guess it's fine. Someone has to catch when Dickey isn't on the mound, after all. Might as well be a decent hitter.
12/2: Rays sign C Jose Molina, 2 years, $4.5M. Jose's middle name is Benjamin, and his brother Benjamin's middle name is Jose. I officially do not understand this world. Anyway, the Rays got a good deal here. Jose brings a lot of value on pitch framing and defense, and he should split time evenly with their new acquisition. (Analysis coming soon!)
12/2: A's trade IF Jemile Weeks and a player to be named to Orioles for RP Jim Johnson. So the sabermetric mecca that is Oakland is going to pay 10 mil for a closer this year? Looks that way. This is a good pitcher they've added, but it's a big chunk of change for a team like the A's. But they won the division in 2013, this makes them better, I won't question it. Maybe Lew Wolff realized what he's got in Billy Beane and decided to support him a little. For Baltimore, it's a good move as long as they turn around and use that money to sign/trade for a good player. I have my doubts.
12/2: Tigers trade SP Doug Fister to Nationals for RP Ian Krol, UT Steve Lombardozzi, and minor league SP Robbie Ray. Here's another one for the WTF file. Fister's a valuable starting pitcher whose value will only rise with the move to the NL, and he's got a couple years of team control left. Krol and Lombardozzi are replaceable players, and Ray's a bit of a wild card. Supposedly, Tigers honcho Dave Dombrowski knew what he wanted to acquire for Fister and didn't really solicit competing offers. The whole thing is kind of a head-scratcher. As this was Detroit's first follow-up move to the Fielder trade, suffice to say I would not be a happy Dave if I were a Tigers fan.
That's it for this time around. Next time we'll start to get into the real December craziness that the Hot Stove League has brought us.
11/26: Giants sign RP Javier Lopez, 3 years, $13M. 4 mil a year for a lefty specialist? This is just like Pence and Lincecum, signs that Brian Sabean would rather overpay to keep his own than put some thought into finding a better solution. Oh, and he's 36 years old. Good luck with that.
11/26: Mets sign OF Chris Young, 1 year, $7.25M. He's never been much for walks or not striking out, but the numbers say he's say he's a strong defensive outfielder and he's got some power. I'm not sure the Mets are in a place where marginal wins make a difference, but plugging Young into left field will make them a better team. Maybe a lot better, given his defensive prowess. With this and his upcoming moves, Sandy Alderson will force me to ask a question I thought I had a year to answer: Are the Mets sneaky contenders?
11/26: Reds sign UT Skip Schumaker, 2 years, $5M. The perfect Dusty Baker player: he can play almost anywhere, he swings at everything, he doesn't hit for power, he hustles like nobody's business. Too bad the Reds fired Baker after the season. This is actually a fair deal for what Schumaker brings, but what he brings approaches zero value.
11/27: Angels sign RP Joe Smith, 3 years, $15.75M. Smith did good work for the Indians the past few years, but as I said before, good organizations don't give 5 million dollars to relief pitchers these days. They develop them and get them for league-minimum deals. I guess since the Angels are in full go-for-it mode, they could have done worse than signing Smith. There's more good news coming in this series for Angels fans, so I won't totally dismiss this move. It does make them better, albeit at a high price.
11/29: Giants sign SP Ryan Vogelsong, 1 year, $5M. The delightful "Back from Japan" comeback story is over. Vogelsong is just another righthanded pitcher on the wrong side of the age curve now. Lucky for him, he's a Giant. We know what that means. Have some money, Ryan Vogelsong!
12/2: Blue Jays sign C Dioner Navarro, 2 years, $8M. I give props to Toronto's front office for recognizing a need and addressing it, but I'm still skeptical that Navarro can replicate his .856 OPS from last year's part time play with the Cubs. He's not that old, and he's hit at least reasonably well everywhere he's gone. So I guess it's fine. Someone has to catch when Dickey isn't on the mound, after all. Might as well be a decent hitter.
12/2: Rays sign C Jose Molina, 2 years, $4.5M. Jose's middle name is Benjamin, and his brother Benjamin's middle name is Jose. I officially do not understand this world. Anyway, the Rays got a good deal here. Jose brings a lot of value on pitch framing and defense, and he should split time evenly with their new acquisition. (Analysis coming soon!)
12/2: A's trade IF Jemile Weeks and a player to be named to Orioles for RP Jim Johnson. So the sabermetric mecca that is Oakland is going to pay 10 mil for a closer this year? Looks that way. This is a good pitcher they've added, but it's a big chunk of change for a team like the A's. But they won the division in 2013, this makes them better, I won't question it. Maybe Lew Wolff realized what he's got in Billy Beane and decided to support him a little. For Baltimore, it's a good move as long as they turn around and use that money to sign/trade for a good player. I have my doubts.
12/2: Tigers trade SP Doug Fister to Nationals for RP Ian Krol, UT Steve Lombardozzi, and minor league SP Robbie Ray. Here's another one for the WTF file. Fister's a valuable starting pitcher whose value will only rise with the move to the NL, and he's got a couple years of team control left. Krol and Lombardozzi are replaceable players, and Ray's a bit of a wild card. Supposedly, Tigers honcho Dave Dombrowski knew what he wanted to acquire for Fister and didn't really solicit competing offers. The whole thing is kind of a head-scratcher. As this was Detroit's first follow-up move to the Fielder trade, suffice to say I would not be a happy Dave if I were a Tigers fan.
That's it for this time around. Next time we'll start to get into the real December craziness that the Hot Stove League has brought us.
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Winning the Winter, part 3
Last time, we made it almost to Thanksgiving and covered what will probably be the winter's biggest trade. Let's keep on rollin', baby. You know what time it is.
11/22: Angels trade OF Peter Bourjos and minor league OF Randal Grichuk to the Cardinals for 3B David Freese and RP Fernando Salas. Third base was a need for the Angels after their trade of Alberto Callaspo to Oakland, and in Freese they get two years of a solution. How good will Freese be? Well, according to Baseball Reference, he collapsed not just offensively but defensively in 2013. At age 30, it's possible he's out of his peak years, but 2013 was the first time in his career that he failed to post an OBP over .350. I think Freese will be fine and I would have liked this as a buy-low move for the Angels. But is this really the buy-low price? Given Cards GM John Mozeliak's track record, most just assume that any trade he makes with a less-heralded GM is a win for the Cardinals. Whether you think the return of Bourjos (a good glove, mediocre bat CF) and Grichuk (A pretty good outfield prospect) is good depends mainly on what you think Bourjos will do in a full season's worth of at-bats. In Jerry Dipoto's defense, he traded Bourjos while he still had some value and improved the lineup for at least one year. Also, let's take into account that both teams were dealing from depth. Matt Carpenter will move to 3B and rookie Kolten Wong takes over at second in St. Louis, while Bourjos was blocked by some dudes named Trout and Hamilton in Anaheim. This doesn't look like a franchise-altering deal, but I think the Angels got the best player and aren't taking as many risks with young players. The Angels, therefore, are the winners. Whether or not they win more winter and make a real run at the AL West crown remains to be seen.
11/22: Rockies sign RP Latroy Hawkins, 1 year, $2.5M. Because 41 year old closers in Coors Field always work out. It's not a ton of money, but Colorado runs on a pretty tight budget. Since relievers are all failed starters, and the Rockies churn out failed starters at an alarming rate, there's almost certainly a cheaper, better option already in the organization. Low-risk, yes, but the reward is practically zero. Latroy's the loser here. It's nice to have a closer job, and people like saves, but at a certain point the gas is going to run out. Pitching at Coors will only make it happen faster.
11/25: Cardinals sign SS Jhonny Peralta, 4 years, $53M. Here's the signing that set the stage for all the rampant WTFery that follows. Here's a shortstop who's going to play next year at 32, who served a PED suspension last year (I'm not moralizing, just saying, he missed 50 games), who's had 2 All-Star years and 4 mediocre ones in what should have been his prime. And he's worth that contract? I get wanting to be proactive so as not to start next year with Pete Kozma in the lineup. But signing Peralta this early in the offseason suggests that the Cardinals really think he was the best value they could get at short. I'm almost positive he wasn't. Why not go after one of Seattle's middle infielders? Why not wait and see if the draft pick signing cost deflated the Stephen Drew market? How about Alexei Ramirez? I mean, I guess the 2014 Cardinals are improved by this addition, but maybe not by much, and avoiding long-term costs like this for non-elite players is part of what's made St. Louis so successful in the past decade. This won't turn into a loss for the Cardinals for a year or two, but I think it will eventually. Peralta wins big, probably even bigger than he thought he would at season's end.
11/25: Dodgers sign SP Dan Haren, 1 year, $10M (Vesting option for 2015). For most of the aughts, Haren was secretly one of the best pitchers in the game. He made three straight All-Star teams, leading the league in WHIP in 2009 and leading three times in K/BB ratio. Unfortunately for him, 2012 was among his worst years as a starter and his attempt to rebuild value with Washington in 2013 went just about the same. So he gets another one year deal, with a higher guarantee than I expected. Most "prove it" contracts come with a low base salary and significant incentives, but even if Haren goes out and pitches like a replacement pitcher again he'll still cash in. The Dodgers are more concerned about the long term financial picture, of course, and they can take an eight-figure short term gamble on anyone they want. If Haren is indeed healthy and effective, the Dodgers will look good for a second straight NL West title and again they'll head into October with as good a rotation as any team in the game. I'm not super-sanguine about that, though. It's just a guess, but I think the last two years are an indication of how the rest of Haren's career is going to look. The Dodgers will lose this deal, but it's a loss they can easily afford.
11/25: Indians sign OF David Murphy, 2 years, $12M. He's 32 and coming off a down year in Texas, which should be concerning to Indians fans. On the other hand, he's replacing the offensively challenged Drew Stubbs in the lineup. Outside of last year, Murphy's been running a career .800 OPS, which is better than what Stubbs brings. Cleveland is paying for a slight upgrade and that's what they're getting, but it's kind of hard to imagine the Indians repeating their 2013 Wild Card appearance without some kind of significant addition.
11/22: Angels trade OF Peter Bourjos and minor league OF Randal Grichuk to the Cardinals for 3B David Freese and RP Fernando Salas. Third base was a need for the Angels after their trade of Alberto Callaspo to Oakland, and in Freese they get two years of a solution. How good will Freese be? Well, according to Baseball Reference, he collapsed not just offensively but defensively in 2013. At age 30, it's possible he's out of his peak years, but 2013 was the first time in his career that he failed to post an OBP over .350. I think Freese will be fine and I would have liked this as a buy-low move for the Angels. But is this really the buy-low price? Given Cards GM John Mozeliak's track record, most just assume that any trade he makes with a less-heralded GM is a win for the Cardinals. Whether you think the return of Bourjos (a good glove, mediocre bat CF) and Grichuk (A pretty good outfield prospect) is good depends mainly on what you think Bourjos will do in a full season's worth of at-bats. In Jerry Dipoto's defense, he traded Bourjos while he still had some value and improved the lineup for at least one year. Also, let's take into account that both teams were dealing from depth. Matt Carpenter will move to 3B and rookie Kolten Wong takes over at second in St. Louis, while Bourjos was blocked by some dudes named Trout and Hamilton in Anaheim. This doesn't look like a franchise-altering deal, but I think the Angels got the best player and aren't taking as many risks with young players. The Angels, therefore, are the winners. Whether or not they win more winter and make a real run at the AL West crown remains to be seen.
11/22: Rockies sign RP Latroy Hawkins, 1 year, $2.5M. Because 41 year old closers in Coors Field always work out. It's not a ton of money, but Colorado runs on a pretty tight budget. Since relievers are all failed starters, and the Rockies churn out failed starters at an alarming rate, there's almost certainly a cheaper, better option already in the organization. Low-risk, yes, but the reward is practically zero. Latroy's the loser here. It's nice to have a closer job, and people like saves, but at a certain point the gas is going to run out. Pitching at Coors will only make it happen faster.
11/25: Cardinals sign SS Jhonny Peralta, 4 years, $53M. Here's the signing that set the stage for all the rampant WTFery that follows. Here's a shortstop who's going to play next year at 32, who served a PED suspension last year (I'm not moralizing, just saying, he missed 50 games), who's had 2 All-Star years and 4 mediocre ones in what should have been his prime. And he's worth that contract? I get wanting to be proactive so as not to start next year with Pete Kozma in the lineup. But signing Peralta this early in the offseason suggests that the Cardinals really think he was the best value they could get at short. I'm almost positive he wasn't. Why not go after one of Seattle's middle infielders? Why not wait and see if the draft pick signing cost deflated the Stephen Drew market? How about Alexei Ramirez? I mean, I guess the 2014 Cardinals are improved by this addition, but maybe not by much, and avoiding long-term costs like this for non-elite players is part of what's made St. Louis so successful in the past decade. This won't turn into a loss for the Cardinals for a year or two, but I think it will eventually. Peralta wins big, probably even bigger than he thought he would at season's end.
11/25: Dodgers sign SP Dan Haren, 1 year, $10M (Vesting option for 2015). For most of the aughts, Haren was secretly one of the best pitchers in the game. He made three straight All-Star teams, leading the league in WHIP in 2009 and leading three times in K/BB ratio. Unfortunately for him, 2012 was among his worst years as a starter and his attempt to rebuild value with Washington in 2013 went just about the same. So he gets another one year deal, with a higher guarantee than I expected. Most "prove it" contracts come with a low base salary and significant incentives, but even if Haren goes out and pitches like a replacement pitcher again he'll still cash in. The Dodgers are more concerned about the long term financial picture, of course, and they can take an eight-figure short term gamble on anyone they want. If Haren is indeed healthy and effective, the Dodgers will look good for a second straight NL West title and again they'll head into October with as good a rotation as any team in the game. I'm not super-sanguine about that, though. It's just a guess, but I think the last two years are an indication of how the rest of Haren's career is going to look. The Dodgers will lose this deal, but it's a loss they can easily afford.
11/25: Indians sign OF David Murphy, 2 years, $12M. He's 32 and coming off a down year in Texas, which should be concerning to Indians fans. On the other hand, he's replacing the offensively challenged Drew Stubbs in the lineup. Outside of last year, Murphy's been running a career .800 OPS, which is better than what Stubbs brings. Cleveland is paying for a slight upgrade and that's what they're getting, but it's kind of hard to imagine the Indians repeating their 2013 Wild Card appearance without some kind of significant addition.
Monday, December 9, 2013
Winning the Winter, part 2
Let's take a big bite of November baseball tonight, while I consider writing a "Losing the Winter" post about Jack Zduriencik...
11/6: Rays re-sign OF David DeJesus, 2 years, $10.5M. On a wins-per-dollar basis, this is fine. Not a great bargain, but the Rays are likely to get more than their money's worth. The question is, given that the Rays operate among the lowest Major League payrolls, was this a place that needed a 2 WAR player? Given that they already have Wil Myers and Desmond Jennings, and Matt Joyce (a lefty hitting left fielder four years younger than DeJesus and roughly as productive) I say no. Maybe the Rays will be one of the teams that take their TV contract money and put it right back into Major League payroll, in which case, this isn't anything. But if they don't, and they have to cut corners elsewhere to keep four good outfielders, this is a misstep. Your winner in this deal is nobody, really. Barring injuries elsewhere, DeJesus won't play every day, the Rays won't get maximum value in a trade for Joyce, and they'll have $5M less to work with when they hit the July trade market.
11/12: Phillies sign OF Marlon Byrd, 2 years, $16M. At least the Rays didn't give 2 years to a 36 year old outfielder coming off a career year. Last spring, I thought maybe Rollins, Howard, Utley, and two ace pitchers could give Philly fans one last run. They didn't, and while it's still technically possible, the odds get worse every year. Marlon Byrd is more likely to provide no value than he is to repeat his impressive 2013, and the Phillies already had a couple guys on the roster who could probably deliver similar value. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. has made a habit of ignoring the age creep on his roster, and this is just the latest symptom of the problem. Byrd is a big time winner for getting this much cake, when it's hard to imagine any other team would have offered more than half the contract.
11/18: Giants sign SP Tim Hudson, 2 years, $23M. Everyone's optimistic about this signing, and I have to admit Hudson's probably going to deliver more than $23M in value over the next two years. In fact, I'll go ahead and say this will be the best free agent pitcher signing of the winter in a vacuum. It's a straight upgrade on whoever else they would have plugged into the back of the rotation and they didn't break the bank to do it. I'll save the (significant and far-reaching) downside for my March prediction series. I'm gonna say Hudson loses this deal because he probably gave away his last shot at a World Series ring, and he didn't even get overpaid to do it.
11/19: Padres sign SP Josh Johnson, 1 year, $8M. The Padres have built a passable rotation between their trade for Ian Kennedy and this signing. If Johnson rebounds from a nightmare 2013 and puts up elite numbers again, maybe he's a good July trade candidate. That's probably what the Padres are banking on, because their lineup doesn't yet instill playoff-level confidence. The Cubs won big with their Scott Feldman signing last winter, and this could be the same thing but better. We'll have to wait and see, but I think this was a good long-term play for the Padres as long as fans don't necessarily take it as a win-now move.
11/20: Tigers trade 1B Prince Fielder and cash to the Rangers for 2B Ian Kinsler. And now we get to the real meat of the offseason. As a jumping-off point, I'll refer to a quasi-quote about Fielder from Texas front office man Jon Daniels: "If he was coming off [the] best year of [his] career, he's not available [in a trade this offseason]." Every year between 2007 and 2012, Fielder hit at least 30 homers, had an OBP of at least .372, and an OPS that bottomed out at .871. This is the Webster definition of a "middle-of-the-order bat". Now, the big question: was Fielder's noticeable drop in power in 2013 the start of the decline or just an off year? Given that he'll play next year at age 30, I'm going to guess he's got two, maybe three more elite seasons left in him. Texas found out last year that no ballpark in baseball can make up for the absence of a real cleanup hitter, but the move from Comerica to Arlington should mask any decline Fielder suffers- at first, anyway. I should also note that Texas cleared second base to give a full time job to one of MLB's top prospects, IF Jurickson Profar. If I'm a Rangers fan, I love everything about this deal. From Detroit's perspective, this can only be graded as an incomplete. Their defense gets better, they've opened up payroll to either re-sign Max Scherzer or sign someone like Shin-Soo Choo, and they've cleared a spot for their own top prospect, 3B Nick Castellanos. It doesn't necessarily have to be a loss for Detroit, but there is a whole lot of work to be done before we know for sure. If they traded Fielder (and a future salary dump to be analyzed soon) just to keep Scherzer, I don't like it. Taken at present-day value, I give the win to Texas. Secondary win to Castellanos, who probably could have gotten a chance a year ago if Miguel Cabrera hadn't been in the way.
11/21: Royals sign SP Jason Vargas, 4 years, $32M. I always go to Rany on the Royals for my KC Royals info, and the first word in his Vargas analysis is "Meh." I can't put it any better myself. They're losing Ervin Santana, who put up a better season in 2013 than anyone other than Dayton Moore predicted. And their plan to replace him is essentially the definition of league-average. Vargas has always been three things: Healthy, consistent, and adequate. The Royals had their first winning season in a decade in 2013, and they might repeat the feat. But if they get any better in 2014, it's going to be because of internal improvements or further splashy moves- not because they signed Jason Vargas. This is probably a move without real losers- league average pitching has its price, after all- but Vargas should thank his lucky stars any team was willing to give him 4 years.
11/6: Rays re-sign OF David DeJesus, 2 years, $10.5M. On a wins-per-dollar basis, this is fine. Not a great bargain, but the Rays are likely to get more than their money's worth. The question is, given that the Rays operate among the lowest Major League payrolls, was this a place that needed a 2 WAR player? Given that they already have Wil Myers and Desmond Jennings, and Matt Joyce (a lefty hitting left fielder four years younger than DeJesus and roughly as productive) I say no. Maybe the Rays will be one of the teams that take their TV contract money and put it right back into Major League payroll, in which case, this isn't anything. But if they don't, and they have to cut corners elsewhere to keep four good outfielders, this is a misstep. Your winner in this deal is nobody, really. Barring injuries elsewhere, DeJesus won't play every day, the Rays won't get maximum value in a trade for Joyce, and they'll have $5M less to work with when they hit the July trade market.
11/12: Phillies sign OF Marlon Byrd, 2 years, $16M. At least the Rays didn't give 2 years to a 36 year old outfielder coming off a career year. Last spring, I thought maybe Rollins, Howard, Utley, and two ace pitchers could give Philly fans one last run. They didn't, and while it's still technically possible, the odds get worse every year. Marlon Byrd is more likely to provide no value than he is to repeat his impressive 2013, and the Phillies already had a couple guys on the roster who could probably deliver similar value. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. has made a habit of ignoring the age creep on his roster, and this is just the latest symptom of the problem. Byrd is a big time winner for getting this much cake, when it's hard to imagine any other team would have offered more than half the contract.
11/18: Giants sign SP Tim Hudson, 2 years, $23M. Everyone's optimistic about this signing, and I have to admit Hudson's probably going to deliver more than $23M in value over the next two years. In fact, I'll go ahead and say this will be the best free agent pitcher signing of the winter in a vacuum. It's a straight upgrade on whoever else they would have plugged into the back of the rotation and they didn't break the bank to do it. I'll save the (significant and far-reaching) downside for my March prediction series. I'm gonna say Hudson loses this deal because he probably gave away his last shot at a World Series ring, and he didn't even get overpaid to do it.
11/19: Padres sign SP Josh Johnson, 1 year, $8M. The Padres have built a passable rotation between their trade for Ian Kennedy and this signing. If Johnson rebounds from a nightmare 2013 and puts up elite numbers again, maybe he's a good July trade candidate. That's probably what the Padres are banking on, because their lineup doesn't yet instill playoff-level confidence. The Cubs won big with their Scott Feldman signing last winter, and this could be the same thing but better. We'll have to wait and see, but I think this was a good long-term play for the Padres as long as fans don't necessarily take it as a win-now move.
11/20: Tigers trade 1B Prince Fielder and cash to the Rangers for 2B Ian Kinsler. And now we get to the real meat of the offseason. As a jumping-off point, I'll refer to a quasi-quote about Fielder from Texas front office man Jon Daniels: "If he was coming off [the] best year of [his] career, he's not available [in a trade this offseason]." Every year between 2007 and 2012, Fielder hit at least 30 homers, had an OBP of at least .372, and an OPS that bottomed out at .871. This is the Webster definition of a "middle-of-the-order bat". Now, the big question: was Fielder's noticeable drop in power in 2013 the start of the decline or just an off year? Given that he'll play next year at age 30, I'm going to guess he's got two, maybe three more elite seasons left in him. Texas found out last year that no ballpark in baseball can make up for the absence of a real cleanup hitter, but the move from Comerica to Arlington should mask any decline Fielder suffers- at first, anyway. I should also note that Texas cleared second base to give a full time job to one of MLB's top prospects, IF Jurickson Profar. If I'm a Rangers fan, I love everything about this deal. From Detroit's perspective, this can only be graded as an incomplete. Their defense gets better, they've opened up payroll to either re-sign Max Scherzer or sign someone like Shin-Soo Choo, and they've cleared a spot for their own top prospect, 3B Nick Castellanos. It doesn't necessarily have to be a loss for Detroit, but there is a whole lot of work to be done before we know for sure. If they traded Fielder (and a future salary dump to be analyzed soon) just to keep Scherzer, I don't like it. Taken at present-day value, I give the win to Texas. Secondary win to Castellanos, who probably could have gotten a chance a year ago if Miguel Cabrera hadn't been in the way.
11/21: Royals sign SP Jason Vargas, 4 years, $32M. I always go to Rany on the Royals for my KC Royals info, and the first word in his Vargas analysis is "Meh." I can't put it any better myself. They're losing Ervin Santana, who put up a better season in 2013 than anyone other than Dayton Moore predicted. And their plan to replace him is essentially the definition of league-average. Vargas has always been three things: Healthy, consistent, and adequate. The Royals had their first winning season in a decade in 2013, and they might repeat the feat. But if they get any better in 2014, it's going to be because of internal improvements or further splashy moves- not because they signed Jason Vargas. This is probably a move without real losers- league average pitching has its price, after all- but Vargas should thank his lucky stars any team was willing to give him 4 years.
Saturday, December 7, 2013
Winning the Winter, part 1
Every single winter, some MLB team makes like an attention-deficit poker player and pushes all-in on the next season. It pretty much never works, but those of us who follow these things are dreamers, and it's fun to imagine what could be. "Of course Toronto's gonna be good in 2013! Did you see who they added?" Yeah, they added the expensive core of a 93-loss Marlins team and proceeded to lose 88 games. The year before that it was Albert Pujols to the Angels, and if you want to go back any further, just look at any Mets or Cubs free agent signing ever. These future albatrosses are translated into Wins Above Replacement per dollar, a team that's about to lose 90 games is declared the winner of the winter, and the Francisco Lirianos and Shane Victorinos of the world are the additions that wind up mattering. (Nailed it on Liriano, BTW. Fist pump.) With that in mind... Who's up for an MLB offseason analysis series? I'm going to try to catch up to real-time at some point during the Winter Meetings, but the past 5 weeks have given us plenty to chew on already so I'll crank out a short post every day or three. My way of embracing the silliness of this exercise is to assign to each transaction either a winner, a loser, or both well before any games are played. Let's do this!
10/22: Giants re-sign SP Tim Lincecum, 2 years, $35M. In 2009, Big Time Timmy Jim won his second consecutive Cy Young Award while still pitching on pre-arbitration (read: comparatively cheap) salary. The next year, he got an $8.3M raise, threw fewer innings, gave up more hits, and started what has become a clear and unrelenting decline. Whether you like advanced stats or traditional ones, there is no argument to be made that Lincecum is the same pitcher he was 5 years ago. So the Giants cut his pay by $4.5M a year because they really want to see how bad it gets, I guess? Look, he's just 29 (Next year is officially his age 30 season) so there's a chance he's still got some gas left in the tank. And a two year commitment isn't like, I dunno, giving a 10 year, $240M contract to a 31-year-old Robinson Cano. But over the past 2 years he's made $40M to essentially pitch like a waiver claim. GM Brian Sabean's got two rings that say he's better at running a team than most, but this move is high on risk and vanishingly low on reward. Why not throw that money at a Matt Garza or Masahiro Tanaka instead? The Giants are clear losers on opportunity cost alone, and Lincecum wins big. Now watch him snap out of it and rattle off two more Cy Young seasons.
Dodgers sign Cuban 2B Alexander Guerrero, 4 years, $28M. I have no insight into this deal, other than to say I hope Ned Colletti knows not every Cuban is Yasiel Puig. Guerrero has nice numbers for a middle infielder, including walks and power, but he hasn't played since the 2011-2012 Serie Nacional (Cuban League) season. The range of possible outcomes here is vast and I'm not even going to try throwing a duck at this particular balloon. I'm going to give the win to Guerrero's family.
10/29: White Sox sign Cuban 1B Jose Dariel Abreu, 6 years, $68M. Again, not a Cuban or a professional scout, so I can't say I know what's going to happen. But Abreu's numbers in Serie Nacional look like he found a way to hack the scorekeepers. OBPs over .500. SLGs over .800. A temporary holder of the Cuban home run record. And he's only 26 years old. This is a gamble in the sense that the Sox really don't need another defensively useless ex-slugger wasting at-bats, and also in the sense that Abreu's ABs will by necessity come at the expense of Paul Konerko, one of the most popular White Sox of all time. But every number I can access suggests that this is likely not only a good signing, it could be a great one. I'm beyond cautiously optimistic on this one, so I'll just take a page from M.I.A. and say everyone's a winner.
11/1: Yankees re-sign "SS" Derek Jeter, 1 year, $12M. Only the Yankees could give up $12M and a roster spot as a golden parachute. In the absence of their beloved leader, the 2013 Yankees failed to make the postseason for only the second time since the Strike. Wait, that's not right. In the absence of suitable back-of-rotation starters and productive hitters not named Robinson, the Yankees missed the playoffs. There, that's better. Cap'n Jetes has earned the right to leave the game on his terms, and when he was healthy in 2012 he was a good enough player to be worth something like $12M. But while his offensive production seems to bounce between "barely anything" and "All-Star level" from year to year, he hasn't been a capable defensive shortstop in... well, ever. This is probably the contract for his farewell tour, and he'll get so many props it'll be like every announcer is Tim McCarver for a whole season. He's been a great player- honestly, he was much better than I ever gave him credit for when he was in his prime- but in baseball terms, this is a sunk cost. Be prepared to see a lot of Brendan Ryan, Yankee fans. Baseball wins this deal because of what Jeter symbolizes- you know, the whole myth of good clean cut all-American boys playing for the love of the game. Once Jetes retires, everyone in the game will be on steroids, greenies, uppers, downers, ludes, benzos, psilocybin, and aborted fetus extract ALL THE TIME.
10/22: Giants re-sign SP Tim Lincecum, 2 years, $35M. In 2009, Big Time Timmy Jim won his second consecutive Cy Young Award while still pitching on pre-arbitration (read: comparatively cheap) salary. The next year, he got an $8.3M raise, threw fewer innings, gave up more hits, and started what has become a clear and unrelenting decline. Whether you like advanced stats or traditional ones, there is no argument to be made that Lincecum is the same pitcher he was 5 years ago. So the Giants cut his pay by $4.5M a year because they really want to see how bad it gets, I guess? Look, he's just 29 (Next year is officially his age 30 season) so there's a chance he's still got some gas left in the tank. And a two year commitment isn't like, I dunno, giving a 10 year, $240M contract to a 31-year-old Robinson Cano. But over the past 2 years he's made $40M to essentially pitch like a waiver claim. GM Brian Sabean's got two rings that say he's better at running a team than most, but this move is high on risk and vanishingly low on reward. Why not throw that money at a Matt Garza or Masahiro Tanaka instead? The Giants are clear losers on opportunity cost alone, and Lincecum wins big. Now watch him snap out of it and rattle off two more Cy Young seasons.
Dodgers sign Cuban 2B Alexander Guerrero, 4 years, $28M. I have no insight into this deal, other than to say I hope Ned Colletti knows not every Cuban is Yasiel Puig. Guerrero has nice numbers for a middle infielder, including walks and power, but he hasn't played since the 2011-2012 Serie Nacional (Cuban League) season. The range of possible outcomes here is vast and I'm not even going to try throwing a duck at this particular balloon. I'm going to give the win to Guerrero's family.
10/29: White Sox sign Cuban 1B Jose Dariel Abreu, 6 years, $68M. Again, not a Cuban or a professional scout, so I can't say I know what's going to happen. But Abreu's numbers in Serie Nacional look like he found a way to hack the scorekeepers. OBPs over .500. SLGs over .800. A temporary holder of the Cuban home run record. And he's only 26 years old. This is a gamble in the sense that the Sox really don't need another defensively useless ex-slugger wasting at-bats, and also in the sense that Abreu's ABs will by necessity come at the expense of Paul Konerko, one of the most popular White Sox of all time. But every number I can access suggests that this is likely not only a good signing, it could be a great one. I'm beyond cautiously optimistic on this one, so I'll just take a page from M.I.A. and say everyone's a winner.
11/1: Yankees re-sign "SS" Derek Jeter, 1 year, $12M. Only the Yankees could give up $12M and a roster spot as a golden parachute. In the absence of their beloved leader, the 2013 Yankees failed to make the postseason for only the second time since the Strike. Wait, that's not right. In the absence of suitable back-of-rotation starters and productive hitters not named Robinson, the Yankees missed the playoffs. There, that's better. Cap'n Jetes has earned the right to leave the game on his terms, and when he was healthy in 2012 he was a good enough player to be worth something like $12M. But while his offensive production seems to bounce between "barely anything" and "All-Star level" from year to year, he hasn't been a capable defensive shortstop in... well, ever. This is probably the contract for his farewell tour, and he'll get so many props it'll be like every announcer is Tim McCarver for a whole season. He's been a great player- honestly, he was much better than I ever gave him credit for when he was in his prime- but in baseball terms, this is a sunk cost. Be prepared to see a lot of Brendan Ryan, Yankee fans. Baseball wins this deal because of what Jeter symbolizes- you know, the whole myth of good clean cut all-American boys playing for the love of the game. Once Jetes retires, everyone in the game will be on steroids, greenies, uppers, downers, ludes, benzos, psilocybin, and aborted fetus extract ALL THE TIME.
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