Saturday, March 28, 2015

MLB 2015 Season Preview Part IV: NL Central

And we roll on with the NL Central, which could be the most tightly bunched division of them all in 2015. Will the Pirates continue their rise? Will the Cubs make their long-awaited run? Will anyone outside of the Midwest pay any attention to the Brewers or the Reds? Maybe, but I'm guessing no. Read on.

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2014 record: 90-72 (First place. Beat Los Angeles in NLDS. Lost to San Francisco in NLCS.)
Offseason grade: C

The Cardinals' winter started on the worst possible note with the death of top outfield prospect Oscar Taveres, and nothing baseball-related has any significance compared to that. That said, these posts are about talking baseball, so I'm going to do so. Jason Heyward was probably the second-best player traded this winter, and his addition will take some pressure off a lineup that struggled throughout 2014. It's a stretch to think he'll hit for enough power to make this a good offensive unit, though. I'm also little concerned about the pitching, but people who know their stuff think that Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzalez are both ready to fill rotation spots if Michael Wacha or Jaime Garcia (Or John Lackey, or Lance Lynn, or Adam Wainwright- they all have question marks) falter. This is the same "imported stars surrounded by a deep homegrown cast" formula that's treated the Cardinals so well for so long. While I'm not confident this team is any better than the one that just barely won the division last year, I don't think they have to be to win this year's Central.

How it could all go right: Adam Wainwright remains ace-like, Michael Wacha comes back strong, John Lackey pitches like he wants another contract, the offense does just enough, and the Cards continue alternating NL Pennants with the Giants.

How it could all go wrong: Lackey, Wainwright, Yadi Molina, and Matt Holliday finally get old. Kolten Wong's bat fails to develop. The Cardinals are suddenly a team made up entirely of average players and finish around .500, out of the playoffs.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates
2014 record: 88-74 (Second place. Lost Wild Card game to San Francisco.)
Offseason grade: C

The Pirates are coming off consecutive playoff appearances, which is a victory in itself for the former doormat. The payroll is starting to grow along with the expectations, as we saw with the Liriano extension, but not by enough to keep Russell Martin around. This is still a pretty good team without him, and I have no problems with the players they brought in this winter. I get that the team couldn't afford the contract Toronto gave Martin and they probably shouldn't have tried, but that's a significant player to lose for just a draft pick. They could win 88 games again, and maybe that'll be enough for another Wild Card slot, but I can't pick them to pass the Cardinals. Not when the Cards added an excellent player and the Pirates lost one.

How it could all go right: Francisco Cervelli proves adept at handling a pitching staff. Gerrit Cole becomes a short-list number 1 starter. A.J. Burnett's return is triumphant. Gregory Polanco breaks out in a big way. Jung-Ho Kang wrestles shortstop away from Jordy Mercer and wins Rookie of the Year. The Pirates take another step forward and win the division.

How it could all go wrong: Liriano looks more like his old self than his Pirates self, and the rotation is Cole and a bunch of back end guys. Polanco's major league struggles aren't over just yet. Josh Harrison's 2014 was a fluke. The Pirates disappoint everybody by finding their way back to the basement in a very competitive division.

3. Chicago Cubs
2014 record: 73-89 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: A

The Cubs got a double writeup in my winter wrap posts, so I'll just sum it up here: The offseason was smart and aggressive, the supply of prospects is still better than any other team's both in terms of depth and superstar upside, and they need a few of those guys to produce this year if they're going to contend. They'll be better than they were last year, and there's a chance they'll be a lot better, but I'll believe it when I see it. Remember Corey Patterson.

How it could all go right: Kris Bryant is as good as everyone says. Javier Baez looks like he belongs in the majors. The bullpen is better than it looks on paper. The Wrigley Field construction gets done at some point, and they get to host a playoff game or three.

How it could all go wrong: Baez is a total bust, and the rest of the top prospects are blocked (Russell) or inconsistent (Bryant). The pitching staff behind Lester and Arrieta falls apart. 2015 winds up being a treading water year, and the Cubs finish with a win total in the 70's.

4. Milwaukee Brewers
2014 record: 82-80 (Third place)
Offseason grade: B-

The Brew Crew quietly had a solid winter, re-signing Francisco Rodriguez and Aramis Ramirez, adding a playable first baseman in Adam Lind, and trading erstwhile staff ace Yovanni Gallardo to Texas for three prospects. For them to improve on last year's mildly surprising winning season, they're going to have to get big years out of Jimmy Nelson, Wily Peralta, and Mike Fiers in the rotation and continued excellence from their offensive core of Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Gomez, and Ryan Braun. This group could conceivably win the division, but they lack the growth potential of the two teams I've ranked directly above them and they lack the pitching depth of St. Louis.

How it could all go right: Peralta and Nelson turn into a 1-2 punch while the other guys pitch like 3s. Lucroy and Gomez put together strong cases for MVP and Braun hits for power. K-Rod keeps it together. The Brewers are healthier and luckier than the more talented teams in their division and end up in first.

How it could all go wrong: Jean Segura really is as bad as he looked in 2014. Kyle Lohse falls off the age cliff. Scooter Gennett and Khris Davis fail to turn into productive bats. Ryan Braun is either injured or unproductive. The team has a mini-fire sale and finishes in the basement.

5. Cincinnati Reds
2014 record: 76-86 (Fourth place)
Offseason grade: C-

I was on board with the Reds' winter through the Simon and Latos trades, as they acquired present-day value as well as future value. When they turned around and traded prospect Ben Lively to the Phillies for one year of 37-year-old Marlon Byrd, it gave back some of that depth and made the team look rudderless. The Reds still enter the season with one of the best pitchers and (maybe) one of the best hitters in the NL, so we can't write them off entirely. But I think the window is closed.

How it could all go right: Joey Votto rediscovers his MVP form. Billy Hamilton makes enough adjustments to become an asset at the top of the order. Raisel Iglesias and somebody else step up to prevent a Maholm/Marquis back of the rotation. Devin Mesoraco continues to develop, joining the Posey/Lucroy/Molina tier of elite catchers by season's end. The Reds sneak into a Wild Card spot.

How it could all go wrong: Brandon Phillips does more talking than doing when it comes to what makes hitters valuable. Votto and Bruce are hobbled yet again. Cueto isn't healthy or effective enough to make the kind of trade the Reds need to make. Paul Maholm and Jason Marquis combine for 30 or more starts. The Reds lose 95 games.

Thursday, March 26, 2015

MLB 2015 Season Preview Part III: NL East

The first two sets of predictions were probably the most difficult of this spring, involving hair-splitting, tough calls, and guesswork. So in a way it's a relief that the D6 of baseball justice has sent me to the stratified and apparently predictable land of the NL East for the third part in this series. I racked my brain trying to find a way to pick these teams in anything other than the most obvious order- maybe move the Mets or the Braves up or down- but if there are five tiers of baseball teams, then these teams hit all five tiers.

1. Washington Nationals
2014 record: 96-66 (First place. Lost NLDS to San Francisco.)
Offseason grade: B+

The Nats return most of the important players from their 2014 regular season juggernaut, they added one of baseball's best pitchers in Max Scherzer, and expectations are higher than ever. This has been a World Series-or-Bust team for a few years now, and with a long list of impending free agents, the "bust" might be coming. That's a concern for eight months from now, though. For now, this is as much a superteam as anything the Dodgers have put together in recent years- and more impressive than anything else we've seen in at least a decade. Their number 6 starter would be a 2 on a lot of teams, and their lineup has a blend of young superstars (plural), stars in their prime years, and just a couple guys who are merely solid starters.

How it could all go right: Rings.

How it could all go wrong: Another first-round playoff exit at the hands of a hotter team. I like to find the widest range of outcomes possible at this time of year, but realistically, the rest of the division is fighting for second.

2. Miami Marlins
2014 record: 77-85 (Fourth place)
Offseason grade: B

Just as the White Sox methodically addressed one weakness after another this winter, the Marlins did the same in finally assembling a major league infield. The cost in young talent in doing so was the separator that kept the Marlins out of my best offseasons post. The future is sketchy at best, but for 2015, this is a team worth watching. The only valid criticism is a lack of depth, and yeah, if anyone gets hurt it's a problem. But that's true about most teams. When healthy, it's the deepest lineup the team has had since Fire Sale One, and the rotation goes five deep too- six, if Jose Fernandez comes back strong. There is every reason to expect a good year from the Marlins.

How it could all go right: The pitchers get healthy and stay that way. Giancarlo Stanton gets his MVP. The Marlins win 90-plus and host a playoff game, and then a few more.

How it could all go wrong: So much depends on Stanton, the easiest way for this to collapse would be an early injury to him. If Jeffrey Loria decides to bail after two months of .500 ball, that's another possibility. Jarred Cosart could get busted for betting on baseball. Mat Latos might not make 30 starts. Dan Haren might be done. Dee Gordon isn't the second base solution the team's brass seems to think he is.

3. New York Mets
2014 record: 79-83 (T-second place)
Offseason grade: D

The Mets will welcome Matt Harvey back to the rotation and add Michael Cuddyer to the outfield mix in 2015. As impressive as the young arms are, and as lucky as they've been to see breakouts from Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda, one would think the Mets would have added something more significant than a 36-year-old injury prone corner bat if this is really supposed to be the year they make the leap. As it stands, this is a high-floor, low-ceiling team. There's enough talent across the roster that it's hard to see them being much worse than they were in 2014, but there's nobody from whom we can expect much improvement- apart from Harvey, of course, and his return is mitigated by Zack Wheeler's absence. This is a recipe for a .500 team.

How it could all go right: Matt Harvey is Matt Harvey. Noah Syndergaard forces his way into the rotation and is dominant. It turns out Wilmer Flores was pretty decent all along, David Wright and the old men of the outfield have resurgences, and the lineup goes from just okay to scary. The Mets win 90+, and with Harvey in line to start the Wild Card game, belief starts to happen.

How it could all go wrong: It turns out Lucas Duda's 2014 was a fluke. Cuddyer can't stay healthy. Granderson doesn't have a bounce-back in him. Harvey is something less than the dominant presence he was in 2013. The team struggles to make it to 70 wins.

4. Atlanta Braves
2014 record: 79-83 (T-second place)
Offseason grade: A

I'm going into 2015 a little more bullish on Atlanta than most. Here's what their offseason was: Trading away two impending free agents and one inexpensive, flawed player from one of the worst offenses in baseball. The haul of minor leaguers they got in exchange vaulted the team from near the bottom into the top ten farm systems in the game. The pitching is decent, barring further injuries, and with the prospects on the verge it could look like a dominant staff a year from now. I can't put them higher than fourth, though, because the lineup is only halfway there on a good day. Fixing it will be a multi-year project.

How it could all go right: I thought I could come up with some circumstance where the Braves win 90 games 1-0, but the pitching just isn't good enough yet to be that kind of team. Big steps by the likes of Christian Bethancourt and Jose Peraza in the majors, Rio Ruiz and Braxton Davidson in the minors, a good draft and a smartly aggressive international signing period is what Braves fans should be hoping for.

How it could all go wrong: The Tommy John plague that already claimed Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, and Shae Simmons continues with Craig Kimbrel before John Hart has a chance to cash him in. All the prospects listed above have underwhelming years. Perversely, the offense is good enough to push the team near the .500 mark, denying them a high and protected draft pick in 2016.

5. Philadelphia Phillies
2014 record: 73-89 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: C+

There was a lot to like in what Ruben Amaro did this offseason. Getting a decent prospect for Marlon Byrd, getting two for Jimmy Rollins, not giving in and taking a bad offer for Cole Hamels. So they're in a better position now than they were six months ago, in that they have a few minor league pitchers who could be in the rotation of the next good Phillies team. But Cliff Lee's health issues and Ryan Howard's continued existence mean this is still an old, expensive team without much in the way of long-term solutions.

How it could all go right: Some AL team, desperate for a left handed bat, takes on a little bit of Howard's contract. Hamels jumps out to a fast start and nets the return Amaro (and I) believe he warrants. Cliff Lee retires, freeing up some absurd sum of money. Chad Billingsley gets healthy and becomes an asset, either in trade or as a veteran rotation piece. The Phillies end the calendar year with a cheaper major league roster and a much improved minor league system.

How it could all go wrong: Hamels snaps a ligament and everything else stays the same.

Sunday, March 22, 2015

MLB 2015 Season Preview Part II: AL West

Today, the D6 of baseball justice has decreed that we move on to the division of Mike Trout, Felix Hernandez, and Marcus Semien: The AL West.

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2014 record: 98-64 (First place. Lost to Kansas City in ALDS.)
Offseason grade: B

Last year, I wrote how Mike Trout can't carry an entire team of underachieving veterans. Not only was that wrong- Mike Trout can do anything he wants- but Albert Pujols and the rest of this expensive veteran club shook off some rust and ran away with the division. They'll look to repeat without second baseman Howie Kendrick, leaving the position up to waiver wire bingo. The emergence of Matt Shoemaker and Garrett Richards in 2014, plus the addition of two more good young arms this winter, means the pitching looks better and deeper than it has in a long time.

How it could all go right: Basically a repeat of the 2014 regular season, with Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano playing the roles of Shoemaker and Richards. They also find an answer at second base from among Josh Rutledge, Taylor Featherston, and the trade market. The Angels beat up on their division rivals and again make a run at 100 wins.

How it could all go wrong: Trout gets kidnapped by Russian mobsters, and Shoemaker and Heaney miss the season attempting an elaborate rescue. Pujols runs out of gas for good. Richards struggles to return from knee surgery. Josh Hamilton remains a story all season. The bullpen combusts, costing the young starting pitchers both wins and confidence.

2. Seattle Mariners
2014 record: 87-75 (Third place)
Offseason grade: C-

Seattle's one of the hottest picks for 2015, and I get it. You add a serviceable DH and right field platoon to a team that nearly made the playoffs in 2014 and it's easy to get optimistic. Still, there's too many weak points in every area for me to expect the M's to make their long-awaited return to October baseball. Logan Morrison, Austin Jackson, and Dustin Ackley are all slated to be everyday players, J.A. Happ is in the rotation, and the bullpen is subject to the same volatility as every other team. I barely see a .500 team here, but as the rest of the division looks even worse, I have no choice but to pick Seattle to finish second.

How it could all go right: Jackson remembers he used to be good at baseball. The Paxton/Walker/Hultzen troika of young pitchers do good work behind Felix and Iwakuma. The addition of veteran hitters has a positive effect on Mike Zunino, Brad Miller, and Ackley. The Mariners ride their dominant starting pitching to a division title.

How it could all go wrong: Ackley and Morrison are so bad the team cuts bait on them by the All-Star break. Iwakuma shows his age. Walker and Paxton aren't ready for the show, and Hultzen gets injured again. Jack Z gives up too much in a trade for a rent-a-pitcher. Nelson Cruz's power doesn't play at Safeco. Really, every player on this team has a bleak and realistic worst case. That's part of why I don't love them this year.

3. Houston Astros
2014 record: 70-92 (Fourth place)
Offseason grade: B

The Astros are still in the midst of their rebuild, but this winter gave us our first look at Jeff Luhnow's plan for the major league team: Strikeouts are fine as long as when you hit the ball, it goes far. Newcomers Evan Gattis and Colby Rasmus join Chris Carter, George Springer, and maybe eventually Jonathan Singleton in a lineup that could be devastating one day and hopeless the next. With 2014 breakout stars Colin McHugh and Dallas Keuchel fronting the rotation, there's reason to think the 'Stros won't have to win every game 10-8. For the moment, the biggest variable is if Dan Straily, Sam Deduno, and Brad Peacock are good enough to win on those days when the offense isn't quite there.

How it could all go right: Gattis and Springer learn a little plate discipline, adding a non-hacker element to the offense. Last year's best pitchers follow up on their 2014 success, enough of the mid-20's fringe prospect options make good in the rotation, and Houston slugs its way to a 90-win season and a Wild Card appearance.

How it could all go wrong: The offense is a joke, with enough swing-and-miss to make average opponents look like peak Pedro. This has a negative effect on George Springer's development and he starts to look more like Javier Baez than Giancarlo Stanton. Mark Appel has another frustrating year of stalled development. McHugh and/or Keuchel prove to be one-year wonders. Despite the cost, both in money and minor league talent, the team fails to capitalize on the previous year's improvements and Jeff Luhnow finds himself on the wobbly chair.

4. Oakland Athletics
2014 record: 88-74 (Second place. Lost Wild Card game to Kansas City.)
Offseason grade: Incomplete

People like me love to make a big deal out of Billy Beane, as if he's cracked the code on building baseball teams. Something about this offseason felt different in that respect. In a blistering series of trades, he got rid of big names like Samardzija and Donaldson, but also brought back a Zobrist here and a Butler there along with the usual supply of prospects. Prospects to replace the well-regarded ones Beane traded to Chicago and Tampa Bay. The whole thing makes me feel like if there was an extra month of winter, the roster could have easily been shuffled once again. But when the music stopped, we were looking at some really surprising names on this A's roster. As many times as we've seen this, you'd think I would have learned my lesson by now, but I haven't: I don't see it happening in Oakland this year.

How it could all go right: Ben Zobrist redefines the term "super-utility man" and has a season that literally defies quantification. Bob Melvin finds three reliable arms from amongst the recently promoted and the injury comebacks to join Gray and Kazmir. The defense improves all over the diamond. The offense finds a way to recover from losing Cespedes and Donaldson in the span of a year and the A's snag a Wild Card spot.

How it could all go wrong: There's a nonzero chance that this team won't do anything well. Offense, defense, starting pitching, relief, it could all blow up. That's the risk you take when you turn over half your roster in the span of three months. It's either a magnificent, awe-inspiring experiment, or the random flailings of a justifiably frustrated baseball boss. Beane knows his business better than I ever will, and I don't know for sure that he made a mistake, but the combination of the Donaldson trade and the Zobrist trade has me utterly baffled. The offseason makes a lot more sense if only one of those trades happens, doesn't it?

5. Texas Rangers
2014 record: 67-95 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: D

The Rangers entered the winter uncertain of how good their team really was, and it showed. That Jon Daniels didn't move Beltre or Darvish suggests he thought they were good enough to win, but that his big additions were Ross Detwiler and Yovani Gallardo suggests there wasn't a ton of leeway in terms of money or farm system depth. It's a tough situation, and it's not really any one person's fault that the entire Rangers roster got seriously injured in 2014. But when you bring back the same group for another go-round and Darvish blows out his elbow in spring training, it just isn't as surprising as it should be.

How it could all go right: The onslaught of "out for season"s ends with Darvish and Profar. Choo and Fielder make up for their absence in 2014 by getting on base and hitting baseballs a long way. Somebody trades them some elite young pitching for Beltre at the deadline. The win-loss record is merely bad, and not horrific.

How it could all go wrong: A total redux of last season, except with Gallardo and Detwiler, there's two more pitching careers to ruin.

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

MLB 2015 Season Preview Part I: AL East

The snow is almost entirely gone, and that means it's spring. A time for fans of every baseball team to think, just for a month or two, that this will be the year that their team will be the one who stays healthy, gets lucky, and plays their best ball in October. I'm here to say how that can happen, and why it probably won't. I'm doing the divisions in random order, followed by an awards and playoff picks post, and I'm going to try to knock these out pretty quick. I've spent five months thinking about this, so the hard part's over. And now, your American League East predictions.

First place: Toronto Blue Jays
2014 record: 83-79 (Third place)
Offseason grade: A

Everyone knows that winning the winter doesn't mean you win the next season. But in this division, where every team has a pretty good best-case scenario and a rough worst-case, over-analysis can lead to rotating five teams through five spots ad nauseam. So this is Occam's Razor's prediction: The Jays had a winning record last year, they traded for a top-10 player in Josh Donaldson, and they signed a top-20 player in Russell Martin. They're gonna be good. If any team runs away and hides in this division, it'll be them.

How it could all go right: The Martin acquisition means Mark Buerhle and R.A. Dickey have throwback years while Daniel Norris and/or Aaron Sanchez make a smooth transition to the major league rotation. The lineup meets expectations led by MVP-caliber years from Joey Bats, Donaldson, and Martin. The AL East is wrapped up by Labor Day.

How it could all go wrong: The old starters are done and the young starters aren't ready, taxing depth that isn't really there. Multiple position players have major injuries. No money is left to patch holes either this summer or next winter. The Jays finish in fourth place, refuse to bail on any of their tradeable big contracts for one year too many, and get stuck in expensive-mediocre limbo.

Second place: Baltimore Orioles
2014 record: 96-66 (First place; won ALDS vs. Detroit, lost ALCS vs. Kansas City)
Offseason grade: C

The O's bring back most of the team that confounded the stats and cruised to an AL East crown in 2014. They got there without big contributions from a few injured core players- Manny Machado, Matt Wieters, and Dylan Bundy- all of whom are expected back for 2015. The big question is how those players rebound, as well as Chris Davis, who went from slashing .286/.370/.634 in 2013 to .196/.300/.404 in 2014. Without 2014 home run champ Nelson Cruz around, all of those players will need to contribute.

How it could all go right: Machado stays healthy, Davis looks more like an MVP than a scrub, Bundy and Kevin Gausman take the majors by storm, and the O's repeat as AL East champs. Dan Duquette's winter of hand-sitting and job-waffling is vindicated.

How it could all go wrong: Davis proves to be washed up. Machado gets seriously injured for the third year in a row. Ubaldo Jimenez's services are required in the rotation. Even then, I think the O's have the highest floor of any team in the division. Let's say 76 wins and fourth place.

Third place: Boston Red Sox
2014 record: 71-91 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: D

I'm so consistently wrong on the Red Sox, I'm putting them right in the middle so I won't be too far off. Like the Jays, the Red Sox come into 2015 with a murderer's row lineup and a pitching staff that asks more questions than it answers. Unlike the Jays, the Sox 's lineup relies on both the old (Ortiz, Napoli) and the young (Betts, Bogaerts, Vazquez) while nobody in the rotation seems like a good bet to provide both innings and quality.

How it could all go right: Betts lives up to the incredible hype. Ortiz refuses to age. They get the good Panda and the good Hanley. The rotation turns out to be a bunch of twos and threes instead of fours and fives. They manage to get a true ace via trade over the summer. Boston pulls off the incredibly awesome worst-first-worst-first feat and we accept that we're living in an era where the Red Sox and the Giants are the only teams allowed to win the World Series.

How it could all go wrong: Ortiz finally falls off the age cliff. Bogaerts fails to develop, moving Hanley to shortstop and ruining the defense. Betts doesn't adjust after the league got to watch tape of him all winter. Masterson, Miley, Buchholz, and Kelly pitch like their track records suggest they will. The Sox are more expensive than they were in 2014, but no better.

Fourth place: Tampa Bay Rays
2014 record: 77-85 (Fourth place)
Offseason grade: C+

The Rays went for it in 2014 and fell apart, but when you're the Rays, "going for it" just means keeping your team together. They didn't make the same mistake heading into this year: In addition to losing manager Joe Maddon and front office boss Andrew Friedman to free agency, they traded away half their starting lineup, with much of the value coming back their way in the form of prospects. Factor in last July's David Price trade, and the Rays are in the midst of their biggest rebuild since their 2008 ascension.

How it could all go right: Matt Moore returns to join Chris Archer and Alex Cobb at the head of the AL's best starting rotation. The bullpen's Jep-in-the-Box is every bit as good as Jake-in-the-Box was in 2014. Asdrubal Cabrera and Steven Souza defy the scouts while Nick Franklin justifies the hype, and the Rays have a lineup of MVP-level Longoria and eight unexciting but capable players. Things don't go well in Toronto, Baltimore, or Boston and Tampa Bay takes the division with something like 87 wins.

How it could all go wrong: Longoria gets hurt and the team suffers a season-long power outage. Injuries to Cobb and Archer expose a minor league system that is still in the early stages of its recovery. The Rays flirt with 100 losses.

Fifth place: New York Yankees
2014 record: 83-79 (Third place)
Offseason grade: B-

With massive untradeable contracts to the likes of Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and Alex Rodriguez tying his hands, I'd say GM Brian Cashman did well to add two young, talented pieces to the roster in Nate Eovaldi and Didi Gregorius while also replenishing the bullpen with three good arms. Some might say it's an impossible task to contend with three $20M+ players contributing little to nothing, and as this ranking attests, I'm one of those some.

How it could all go right: Sabathia, A-Rod, and Teixeira have three of the most unlikely comebacks of all time, with A-Rod reinvented as a part-time DH, part-time third baseman, full-time extra hitting coach and great teammate. Chase Headley recalls his 2012 brush with greatness and makes a run at the MVP award. Michael Pineda's arm is functional for 32 starts. Masahiro Tanaka becomes the poster boy for rest and rehab over Tommy John surgery and wins the Cy Young. Every other team in the division craters and the Yankees win the AL East with a win total in the high 80's.

How it could all go wrong: "Everybody still hates A-Rod" is the only Yankees news all year, except for the day Tanaka fully tears his ligament and the day Pineda's arm literally falls off. The pitching staff is one of the worst in history. The Yanks go wire to wire in the basement and the Phillies are no longer the only choice for "biggest mess of a major league franchise".

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Winning the Winter 2014-15: The Bigger Picture

Last time, I did the easy job of picking the teams that improved the most- and the least- for the coming season. It was an exercise in objectivity, mostly using WAR and a standard age curve to figure out who addressed their weaknesses and who created new ones. Today's post is more opinion than fact. Still using my posts from over the winter as a baseline, I'm going to pick five teams who look like they're on a good path for 2015 and beyond, and five that don't. Let's do it.

The Big-Picture Winners

1. Atlanta Braves. The award for best performance by an executive in the 2014-15 offseason goes to John Hart, Atlanta Braves. With two very good outfielders approaching free agency, with an offense that never clicked in 2014, and with the division rival Nationals building a superteam, Hart chose to restock the farm system rather than patch holes and chase a wild-card berth. At some point he'll have to trade pitching for hitting, because the 2015 Braves project to have a terrible offense and most of the top prospects he acquired were pitchers. But in the long run, it's far better to have the farm system than getting one more year out of Jason Heyward and Justin Upton on a .500-ish team. My favorite move: the 4-for-2 trade that sent Upton to the Padres and top pitching prospect Max Fried to Atlanta along with three potentially useful position players.

2. Chicago Cubs. This is an easy choice, but it's also a correct one. The Cubs still have their near-infinite supply of talented young infielders intact, and Lester and Montero are the first proof that the organization is again a big-market, first division bully. There's no reason to think Theo won't do exactly what he did in Boston: create a player development pipeline that ranks among the best in baseball, and throw huge free agent signings and marquee trades on top of it to create a juggernaut. I'm not the type to get carried away with a highly-rated farm system, as every one of these players could bust. But I read and listen to a lot of people, and I haven't heard an unkind word about Kris Bryant or Addison Russell. This might really happen- not in 2015, but I could see 2016 being a good year for Cub fans. My favorite move by the Cubs was really all the non-moves that kept Russell, Bryant, and the rest in the organization. My favorite thing they did act on was probably the Hammel contract.

3. Toronto Blue Jays. While the two previous entries on this list have their focus on the future to some extent, Toronto is in a fascinatingly aggressive win-now mode. Ownership and the front office are going hard in trying to end the longest playoff drought in baseball. They didn't really have a choice after the 2012-13 trades took big bites out of their farm system and left them with a team that wasn't quite good enough, but for 2015, only one team can say they added two of the 20 best players in baseball this winter. Donaldson and Martin really are that good.  The pitching is dicey, especially after the Stroman injury, but Martin might help some with that. Every team in the AL East has big questions, and at least the Jays go into the season knowing they'll be able to outscore anybody. Other than the two teams to which I have emotional attachments, Toronto is the team that excites me the most for 2015. It's hard to choose between the two major additions as my favorite, but the Donaldson trade is higher on the list of hottest Hot Stove moves of the winter, so I'll go with that.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers. Nothing like being the rich team that poaches front-office talent from the smart teams. In a post about franchise direction, I don't think you can get any better than going from Ned Coletti to Andrew Friedman. Picking up a shiny new middle infield was costly, but great for 2015. Finding a taker for Matt Kemp's contract seems good, and getting a player of Yasmani Grandal's caliber in return seems even better. The trade with the Marlins, my pick for best Dodgers move and possibly the best move all winter, was a sweet purchase of controllable talent. Instead of taking on the unwieldy contracts of fading players as they did three years ago, they're getting rid of those contracts and making room for promotions from an elite farm system. It's a great time to be a Dodgers fan.

5. Chicago White Sox. I've gushed over Rick Hahn enough for one winter. Suffice to say the Sox were heading into the winter on an upswing and Hahn pressed fast-forward on the rebuild. The most striking aspect of their offseason, to me, was that every move seemed like the exact right player at the exact right time. Adam LaRoche? An improvement on the Dunn/Konerko mess of 2014. Melky Cabrera? A reason to stop talking about Dayan Viciedo forever. Robertson and Duke? Well, a good team needs relievers who don't come in and set fires every night. And finally, my favorite move, trading for Jeff Samardzija without giving up a single player most Sox fans will miss. I'm not yet sure what my predictions are, but if you wanted to tell me the Sox are the best team in the four-team AL Central scrum, I wouldn't argue too hard.

The Big-Picture Losers

1. Kansas City Royals. That old Myers-for-Shields trade worked out better than anyone could have predicted, but it also shifted the Royals' focus from future to present, hence the signing of players like Alex Rios and Edinson Volquez. Maybe they'll pull a Pirates and become a sustainable winner. I don't know. But they weren't Pittsburgh good in 2014, they don't have a Gerrit Cole and a Gregory Polanco to call up, and they haven't snagged a fringe MVP candidate on a laughable bargain of a free-agent deal. Going downhill feels a lot more likely than the opposite. That's not to say it wasn't worth it for one incredible run, as any Royals fan will tell you, but the question of "What happens next?" is a tough one to answer. Maybe nothing Dayton Moore did this winter could have prevented this, but losing Nori Aoki at a bargain price and cutting Billy Butler sure didn't help.

2. Detroit Tigers. When the Tigers started this run atop the AL Central, they had enough of a minor league system to get Miguel Cabrera in trade. Nine years and two AL Pennants later, the same scorched-earth tactics have them settling for Alfredo Simon, Shane Greene, and Yoenis Cespedes as reinforcements. The team's future as a Phillies-esque mess looks inevitable; the only question is if they get another year or two out of this group before the returns diminish to zero and Mike Ilitch finds his spending limit. None of their winter moves inspire a ton of confidence, the trade for Simon being the worst of the lot.

3. San Francisco Giants. The Giants are once again on their way from World Series champs to missing the playoffs, but this time we have an explanation: They're losing half their power and sticking with old and/or injured starting pitchers, while not drafting well enough to promote or trade for replacements. Seeing as something like this happens every winter in San Francisco, explaining three titles in five years is not a task I'm up to. The non-moves are worse than the moves in this case, but picking up Casey McGehee as Pablo Sandoval's replacement seems the most certain to fail.

4. Boston Red Sox. Boston did a little bit of the same thing San Diego did this winter- getting good hitters whether they have a place for them or not. There are problems with both of those moves: Sandoval is on the downside of his career and will be overpaid immediately, and Hanley Ramirez isn't a left fielder. That's not what puts Boston on this list, though. It's that they needed pitchers to replace Lester and Lackey and they came up with a collection of guys with low ceilings and low floors. Both the Jays and the Sox are trying to win with offense this year, and yet the pitching staff I like better is the one that wasn't revamped via trades and free agency this winter. As evidence, I submit trading two young starting pitchers with upside to Arizona for one young starting pitcher without upside.

5. Colorado Rockies. Meet the new boss (Jeff Bridich), same as the old boss (Dan O'Dowd). I could have picked a lot of teams that failed to move the needle this winter- the Mets and the Rangers come to mind- but Rockies hopelessness is deeper and more pervasive than any other team because everything except the guy in charge stayed exactly the same. The Daniel Descalso contract was the only obvious misstep in an otherwise too-quiet offseason.

And with that, we'll close the book on the winter and look forward to some spring predictions coming soon.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Winning the Winter 2014-15: So Who Won?

What's the point in declaring over 100 minor winners and losers over the course of the winter if you don't tally it all up at the end? I'm going to do two separate posts for two categories here. Post one is the teams that did the most and the least to improve their 2015 chances regardless of the long-term effects. Post two will be the teams whose fans should be happiest and the saddest with the past five months, taking into account everything from major league performance, to farm system health, to overall organizational direction. Let's name some winners and losers!

Most Improved Teams for 2015

1. Chicago White Sox. I really enjoyed watching Rick Hahn work this winter. He needed to improve at a number of positions, and he got around to nearly all of them, turning question marks like Andre Rienzo, Jake Petricka, and Dayan Viciedo into exclamation points named Samardzija, Robertson, and Cabrera. Nearly every player Sox fans were sick of is gone now, and the Kenny Williams days of barging ahead in win-now mode are back. It's good to not give up in March. Really good.

2. San Diego Padres. Easy pick, and they're really a 1B to the Sox' 1A. When you can go to perennial contenders like the Braves, the Rays, and the A's, ask each of those teams for one of their best players, and come away with what you wanted, that's incredibly impressive. Perspective and bias plays a role here, of course, in that the Padres were so forgettable for so long, nobody but A.J. Preller could have imagined this six months ago. But now their rotation stacks up well against every team other than the NL's Big Two, and the lineup should be average with a chance to be better than that. Fascinating winter that will be a fun story to follow all year long, whether or not the moves work.

3. Miami Marlins. The Marlins' situation heading into the winter was much like the White Sox': a young superstar position player and a young number one starting pitcher, both locked up to below-market deals, and not enough around them to chase the big bully in their division. While the Sox leaned heavily on free agency to fill their holes, the Marlins went the trade route, beefing up their rotation and infield around their elite outfield at a heavy cost of young talent. I made it clear several times throughout the winter that it made me nervous watching the Marlins deplete the farm system they had spent two and a half years building up, but this list is about 2015 only, and I like Prado, Morse, and Latos for 2015.

4. Chicago Cubs. Everyone knows by now that this was supposed to be the Cubs' winter, and they got their man in Jon Lester. They also got Dexter Fowler, Miguel Montero, and Jason Hammel and they didn't touch the best collection of position player prospects in the game. I'm going to be pessimistic about said prospects until they prove me wrong, and I still have my doubts about everyone on the roster except for Anthony Rizzo and Fowler. But they should be .500-ish with a real chance to take over the division by 2016.

5. Boston Red Sox. They still have too many outfielders, too many question marks in their rotation, and other than Betts, their best players are all in the decline phase. Like the teams above them on this list, Boston has a long climb ahead of them to get back to October and at least two of these teams will fall short in 2015. But the Red Sox could improve by ten or fifteen games, get a sniff of the wild card race, and that would put them among the most improved teams. They did acquire three starting pitchers and two bats this winter, and while I'm not bullish on them as a whole, that should limit how far the 2015 Red Sox can sink.

Least Improved Teams for 2015

1. Atlanta Braves. This can't be a surprise to anyone. While I think the Braves' front office did a lot of good foundation work this winter, we can't pretend they'll be anything close to contention in 2015. This is what happens when you trade 3 of your 4 good hitters and the best replacement you bring in is Nick Markakis.

2. Oakland A's. I really didn't like the latest installment of Billy Beane's Roster Shuffle. They couldn't do a thing about losing Jon Lester, but tearing it all down seems like an overreaction. Their 2014 win total of 88 was possibly misleading, as Pythagoras had them as the best team in baseball. So even losing Lester's production they probably would have been right in the middle of the AL West race again had they brought back Donaldson, Samardzija, Norris, and the rest. Instead they got rid of everybody in exchange for Ben Zobrist, Jesse Hahn, and a plethora of underwhelming infielders. I know there are financial realities in place that keep Oakland from contending every year, but I don't think they're even going to be close in 2015.

3. Baltimore Orioles. We know Angelos has money. We know Duquette, if he's actually focused on doing his job, is pretty darn good at it. But they lost a lot of thunder in Cruz and didn't even really try to replace it. Was it Duquette's plan to count on rebounds from Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Matt Wieters? Or was it to go become the Blue Jays' president, and by the time that fell through it was too late to do anything? Either way, it was a pretty crummy job that might end up sabotaging a shot at back-to-back AL East crowns.

4. Tampa Bay Rays. It looks like the run that began in 2008 ended when the Red Sox beat them in the 2013 Divisional round. When you lose Price, Zobrist, and Myers in the span of seven months, you can't really hope to replace any of them. The step back was due, but I think when all the predictions and projections are out, this will be the first time in six years that nobody has the Rays winning it all. As a fan of worst-to-firsting and a large amount of year-to-year turnover in the standings, I'm bummed to think that we might never see another playoff game in Tampa under the current ownership and stadium situation.

5. Philadelphia Phillies. I'm sure Phillies fans would rather be higher on this list, but they couldn't trade Cliff Lee, Chase Utley, or Ryan Howard, and they're holding out for a massive Godfather offer on Cole Hamels. That means there was no veteran-for-prospect trade to make, outside of moving Marlon Byrd and Antonio Bastardo. Those were fine trades, and I really don't blame Ruben Amaro for holding on to Hamels for now, but all that means the team is stuck in neutral. I said a year ago that the Phillies were further from contention than any other team, and I don't see how they're any closer today. Baseball purgatory is an ugly place.

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Winning the Winter 2014-15: Part 10

A whole Hot Stove season in ten posts. Sounds about right. Coming soon: The post where I declare the winter's winners and losers, and then, the seven-part season preview. It's almost back, people. We're almost there.

1/17/15: Diamondbacks sign Cuban RHP Yoan Lopez to an $8.27M signing bonus. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs did a good job of breaking down the cost behind the cost here. Like the Angels after signing Baldoquin, Arizona won't be able to participate on any meaningful level in the next two years of international free agency. Since the D-Backs finished 2014 with the worst record in baseball and 2015 is also likely to be a bad year for them, they're forfeiting two consecutive years of big bonus pools- more than any other team would give up in making this deal. So can the Snakes still win this? Sure, if two things happen. One, they need to sign at least one more significant Latin American prospect before July, doubling down on the strategy and mitigating the cost of the two year penalty. Two, Lopez needs to turn into a major league starting pitcher sooner than later. Opinions are split, but the prevailing one is that Lopez is about as talented and projectable as a mid-first-round draft pick. Since all the best Latin American prospects end up commanding budget-busting bonuses and teams have no choice but to play by the current rules, maybe it's best to just zero in on the one their scouts really like. Then when the team can't play in that sandbox next year and the year after that, at least they got their guy. So if Lopez is better than anybody who comes out of Latin America in the next two winters, this was a win. I don't know that. Nobody does.

1/19/15: Brewers trade RHP Yovani Gallardo to Rangers for three prospects: RHP Cory Knebel, IF Luis Sardinas, and RHP Marcos Diplan. Gallardo is entering the last year of his contract and his age-29 season. He's been a healthy and consistent staple in the Brewers' rotation since 2009, with ERAs and FIPs consistently in the high 3's. So one year of a solid-ish number 3 starter got the Brewers a former first round pick and future closer in Knebel, a glove-first shortstop who cracked the majors in 2014 at age 21 in Sardinas, and a teenage lottery ticket in Diplan. There's at least a late-inning reliever and backup infielder there, and it's easy to imagine Gallardo falling apart completely, switching leagues and facing better lineups in the AL West. The cost in depth of losing Sardinas and Knebel probably cancels out whatever Gallardo brings, and that's just for 2015. So I like the Brewers' side.

1/19/15: Astros trade OF Dexter Fowler to Cubs for 3B Luis Valbuena and RHP Dan Straily. The other moves the Cubs have made this winter- the trade for Miguel Montero, the Lester and Hammel signings- say that the Cubs will contend again in the near future. This trade says they're serious about 2015 specifically. Fowler is a fine player, a better leadoff hitter and center fielder than most teams have, but since the Cubs only have him for one year I think this trade was premature. When you look at the rest of their lineup, Fowler wasn't the last piece of the puzzle. They still need to find out what they have in Alcantara, Baez, Bryant, Soler, and so on, and most of them need to succeed immediately if the Cubs are going to pull this off. Meanwhile, Houston adds a viable league-average third baseman to deploy until Colin Moran is ready, although Valbuena won't do much to help the Astros' strikeout problem. Absent context I think Chicago did well here, but as I don't like the timing of it I have no choice to declare both teams losers. The Cubs don't need a rent-a-CF and the Astros shouldn't be trading studs for middling major league parts.

1/19/15: Giants sign OF Nori Aoki, 1 year, $4.7M. There's a couple signings every winter where a player somehow manages to avoid getting overpaid, and this is one that really jumps out at me. So maybe Aoki wasn't as big a deal as playoff commentators made him out to be. And maybe he's lost a step in the outfield. But healthy players with .350 OBPs and the ability to play passable defense don't usually have to settle for one-year deals. Just ask Melky Cabrera. There's no way for the Giants to lose this deal. The only question I have for them is, how do the pieces fit this year? They lost Sandoval and Morse and replaced them with Aoki and Casey McGehee, two of the worst power hitters in the game today. Are Posey, Pence, and Belt really good enough to be the heart of the order, or is Royalball the new market inefficiency?

1/20/15: Astros sign OF Colby Rasmus, 1 year, $8M. Home runs are as rare and valuable as they've ever been these days, but doesn't there still have to be a limit of how many shortcomings you'll put up with in order to add a few dingers to the lineup? Rasmus looked like a potential stud coming up with the Cardinals, but his batting average and walk rate keep dropping. Some day soon, all that's gonna be left is the 25 at bats a year where the ball leaves the yard. Maybe in June or July I'll see Jeff Luhnow's vision, but it isn't working for me just yet. This is an oddly constructed team, and if it works, the offense will be the first successful one of its kind.

1/21/15: Nationals sign RHP Max Scherzer, 7 years, $210M. Scherzer's one of the game's best pitchers at the moment, but I'm still struggling to come up with a way this changes the outlook for Washington. It doesn't affect the Nats' profile as a franchise. They were already a first-division club. It might add one or two regular season wins to a team that was already projected to win its division handily. It doesn't hurt anything come October, but the upgrade from Gonzalez, Roark, or Fister to Scherzer for one to five starts is not significant. All that said, if you're going to give a 31-year-old pitcher a downright ridiculous contract, you could do worse than giving it to Scherzer. He's got a long track record of health and dominance and it's reasonable to expect another couple of years of ace-level pitching before things go downhill. But every pitcher eventually breaks. If and when it happens, losing a year of Max Scherzer, along with the financial cost, along with the uncertainty of a pitcher in his 30's coming back from Tommy John is almost enough to make you worried for Nats fans. Almost. For now, the Lerners can breathe easy about Fister and Zimmermann approaching free agency, Tanner Roark can wait his turn in the bullpen even though he was arguably the team's best pitcher in 2014, and Washington can throw aces every day this October. Which they would have been able to do even if they hadn't signed Scherzer. All that for the low low price of $15M a year for the next 14 years. Must. Be. Nice.

1/26/15: Reds extend C Devin Mesoraco, 4 years, $28M. Locking up a mid-20's catcher who just had a massive breakout year (50 extra-base hits), buying his arbitration years and one free agent year at $7M per? Nothing sucks about this. If the 2014 Mesoraco is what he really is, the Reds might be equipped to better absorb the declines of Votto and Bruce. If he's not a borderline MVP candidate and is instead 'just' an all-star catcher, this is still a bargain. The Reds have guessed wrong a lot in recent years- signing Bailey instead of Latos, locking up Votto to a contract that was one of the worst in the game before the ink was dry- but this looks like a good decision.

1/27/15: Marlins sign Ichiro Suzuki, 1 year, $2M. As a fan of baseball and greatness, I'm a little bummed that Ichiro probably won't get an honest shot at 3,000 hits as Miami's fourth outfielder. But as someone who roots for the Marlins, I'm liking the thought of countless triples into the huge outfield gaps at Marlins Park. Any shot Miami has at contention this year lies in the health and productivity of the best outfield in baseball, Giancarlo in particular. But if one of them misses significant time and Ichiro is the fallback, that isn't the worst thing in the world. For a team whose biggest weakness was and is position player depth, this insurance policy looms large.

1/28/15: Pirates trade OF Travis Snider to Orioles for RHP prospects Stephen Tarpley and Steven Brault. For the second year in a row, Baltimore waited till spring training was almost here to get their shopping done. It's probably fair to say that Snider won't match the production of last year's last-minute addition, home run champ Nelson Cruz, but Snider is one of those guys who seems older than he is because baseball nerds have been hearing his name for a long time. He's about to enter his age-27 season and put up a strong slash line in a part-time role in 2014, so a Pearce/Jones/Snider outfield might be better than it sounds. On Pittsburgh's side, they got a pair of A-ball righties who ranked somewhere between 10 and 20 on Baltimore's prospect list, but the more immediate result is that 23-year-old Gregory Polanco now has right field all to himself. If he can make good on a fraction of the promise he's shown in the minors, the Pirates will have three stud outfielders. A fine deal for both sides.

2/6/15: Cubs sign LHP Francisley Bueno to a minor league contract. I told you I'd have this covered. Maybe it's time I start believing in the Cubs. The man's last name means good. And his first name means Francisley. He's the good Francisley. What more do you want!?

2/11/15: Padres sign RHP James Shields, 4 years, $75M. This winter must have been tough on Shields- I mean, as tough as a few months can be when you know you're going to make close to $100M in the end. But when the Royals picked him up two years ago, he was billed as an ace, the guy who could lead a young Royals team deep into October. And in 2014, the Royals went as deep into October as a team can go. But somewhere along the way, people realized Shields is really more of an archetypal #2 starter than an ace. He gives you innings and lots of 'em, with good peripherals and results all around, but he doesn't ever quite give you the dominance. So that 5 year, $100M number one starter contract never materialized. But when you look at what the real ace (Scherzer) got, and you look at what the other pitcher in Shields' class (Lester) got, it's pretty clear that A.J. Preller got opportunistic again, bought low, and possibly won the winter because of it. I can't yet say whether this deal puts San Diego in that 90-win range, but I do think it's about more than legitimacy. It's about trying to sneak up behind the Giants and Dodgers and jack them with a sock full of pennies. It's about completing the most drastic one-winter franchise makeover we have ever seen. It's about adding talent on top of talent until on-field success goes from impossible to probable. I can't wait to get to my predictions posts this month. That lunatic in San Diego's gonna make things real interesting.