We're back with the latest set of five fucked-up films. I've arranged them from worst to best this time, because these five ran the gamut from "almost worthless" to "stunning cinematic achievement" with three stops in between. As always, I watch these so you don't have to.
Antichrist (2009): Lars Von Trier directed and wrote this quiet, dark story about a husband and wife whose young son dies, turning the wife into a basket case and the husband into a cold, condescending therapist. They decide to go out into the woods, to their one-time vacation spot, so she can explore and conquer her fears. This one is half slow burn and half shock piece, with some majorly disturbing visuals. It says a lot without a ton of dialogue about the lines between love and hate, pleasure and pain, innocence and guilt. On a more literal level, it's about people losing fights with their demons and pride coming before the fall. It's a hard line to walk when you try to be gross-out and thought-provoking at the same time, and for me, this missed the mark. I'll allow that it makes its points well and doesn't beat you over the head with them. It just tells a simple, sad story that touches on a lot of universal themes. I just can't recommend it- not because I was scarred, but because it was a predictable unpleasant slog apart from the occasional pornographic and/or extremely violent scene. Truth be told, those brief and intense moments are the only thing that landed this movie on "most disturbing" lists. It wasn't fun to watch or even interesting, but there was a commendable elegance to the story and its message that kept it from being a complete waste of time. I guess a D+ is where this one ends up.
13 Sins (2014): In this American remake of a Thai thriller, we follow the story of Elliot, who is little different from Craig in "Cheap Thrills": recently fired, drowning in debt, needs money to start a family. While Craig's ticket to the good life is a heavily intoxicated David Koechner, Elliot receives his escalating dares on a mysterious cellphone, with the late George Coe (RIP, Woodhouse) telling him he's on a game show and under constant surveillance. The payouts rise much faster in "13 Sins" than in "Cheap Thrills", but the tasks are also more gut-wrenchingly evil and difficult. Other than that, it's kind of the same movie only less funny, entirely unsexy, and more twisted. It's dark, but not haunting. It's clever, but not thought-provoking. It's got Ron Perlman, but in a role that encourages the viewer to take him seriously, which I'm pretty sure can't be done. And it does something I can't stand: a character says the (rather obvious) theme and message of the movie verbatim. It made me roll my eyes in "Martyrs", a film with much greater ambitions, and it doesn't work any better here. Mildly entertaining and occasionally cringe-inducing, but nothing original or special. C-.
Jacob's Ladder (1990): Tim Robbins stars in this reality-bending story as Jacob Singer, a Vietnam veteran who, like Billy Pilgrim, has become unstuck in time. Nobody from his battalion in Da Nang can remember anything about their last night in action, and many of them are regularly pursued by demons in their present-day lives. Unless those demons are hallucinations, or unless all of Jacob's fellow soldiers are all lying to him. Or unless any of a million other possibilities. For extra gut-wrench points, Jacob also has to deal with a divorce from a woman he still loves, a new girlfriend who is less than patient with his crazy, and the accidental death of his son, played by Macaulay Culkin. That brings me to the next notable thing about "Jacob's Ladder": check out this murderer's row of moderately famous people who were bit characters here before they went on to bigger things- Ving Rhames, S. Epatha Merkerson, Jason Alexander, Eriq La Salle, Kyle Gass, Lewis Black, and Culkin. Simply stunning. While the acting, cinematography, hair, and wardrobe is all very 1990 and embarrassingly so, the method of storytelling and (for lack of a better term) the mindfuckiness of this movie was well ahead of its time. I didn't think it was a keep-you-guessing movie. I thought it was just about Agent Orange, paranoia of the government, and PTSD, which was impressive in and of itself because PTSD wasn't really a thing in 1990. But it blindsided me and zoomed out my perspective multiple times, and I was always happy my predictions were wrong. Really good work, apart from the 1990 hair and 1990 stereotypes of blacks and Jews in New York City. I'll give it a B.
Kynodontas (or Dogtooth) (2009): Finally, we get to a film that delivers what I'm looking for. Instead of blood and gore, Greece's "Kynodontas" sets up a ludicrously insane premise, commits to it fully, and then just lets the characters live it. A mother and father of three have raised their now-grown children to believe that the world outside their fenced-in manor is uninhabitable, full of untold danger, and they aren't safe anywhere but home. It focuses on the beyond-naive, childlike personalities of a grown man and two grown women, raised in an alternate reality and never taught to question it- or, indeed, to think at all. The acting of the son and daughters is really quite remarkable in that the characters only have three emotions each, all of them in their most juvenile form: terror, glee, and puppy-like unconditional trust. Their faces remain guileless and without a trace of nuance for ninety minutes. They tussle and chase each other like toddlers one minute, then exchange pseudo-sexual favors for trinkets the next. It's like a prison movie, except the inmates don't know they're in prison and they love and adore their captors like gods. It goes to some shocking and taboo places- of course it does- but the movie's real accomplishment is establishing, then exploring, the set of conditions that allows the three main characters to grow to adult age without ever being close to truly human. Fascinating, compelling, original, and utterly alien. I give it a B+. It could have been an A, and one of the best movies this project has led me to, but I felt like the premise had potential to be infinitely twisted, and the twistiness was all too finite.
We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011): This one's been on my list since I started this series of posts, but I was saving it because everything I read had me convinced it would be one of the most disturbing movies I've ever seen. Having seen it, I now wish I'd saved it for last. "Kevin" works on a different emotional axis from the other highlights of this series, and on that axis, it's a goddamn masterpiece. It stars Tilda Swinton and John C. Reilly as Eva and Franklin, the parents of the titular character, and we see Kevin at three different phases of his life: a silent, defiant toddler, an increasingly vulgar and hateful young boy, and finally as the sometimes charming, sometimes casually violent adolescent. We know from the start that Kevin does something horrific, as the film isn't chronological. We see Eva driving toward flashing police lights. We see her trying to remove red paint that somebody splashed all over her house. We see total strangers curse her out in public. Interspersed with those scenes of the fallout, we watch Kevin grow up into a psychopath, his hate and rage focused almost entirely on Eva while Franklin remains convinced he's normal. Thanks largely to Jasper Newell, who plays 6-8 year old Kevin with a startling lack of humanity, you feel like you're in the room sharing an uncomfortable silence with the characters for most of the movie. Director Lynne Ramsey fills every setting with red at one point or another: with paint on the house, with police lights, in a grocery store in front of shelves of tomato sauce, or even in flashbacks to the Tomatina festival to show a pre-motherhood Eva as a happy, young, well-off world traveler. The red makes the film physically hard to watch; as the characters deal with their own internal trauma, the constant of the color burns your eyes as if to warn you away from watching through to the end. This boldness turns individual screenshots of the movie into works of art, even without context. After each interaction between Kevin and Eva you're more tense and less patient, wondering what form Kevin's hatred will take as it goes from a simmer to a boil. The climax and resolution are extraordinary, and like the other truly worthwhile films this project has shown me, it left me with one horrifically beautiful and indelible image. Marion hits bottom in "Requiem for a Dream". The final shot of "Inside". The kiss goodbye in "Funny Games". And now, Kevin's curtain call. It's these moments that I'm looking for whenever I start to watch a potential fucked-up film. It could have wound up anywhere from A to F given the content, but this movie is everything I hoped it would be. The plot structure, cinematography, casting, acting, and even the sound are all deserving of the highest praise. I'm giving it an A. Along with the aforementioned "Inside", "Requiem", and "Funny Games", we have a new entrant in the top tier of disturbing cinema.
Monday, August 10, 2015
Monday, August 3, 2015
State of the Franchises: AL East
We'll wrap up this series with my take on the outlook for the five AL East teams. Coming soon, another messed-up movies post and maybe something completely different.
Baltimore Orioles: The O's are one of the many average teams in the Wild Card scrum. Dan Duquette insisted they would buy at the deadline, and they did, but I don't think they did it right. Thanks in part to the continued injury problems of their best minor league arms, it seemed obvious to me that they needed a pitching upgrade. Instead they sent Zach Davies, a real pitching prospect, to Milwaukee in exchange for Gerardo Parra. Parra is essentially a fourth outfielder in the midst of a career year that makes him look like a viable starter. Now look, the O's' non-Adam Jones outfielders have been terrible this year, so if they wanted to give up Davies in a deal for Justin Upton or Carlos Gonzalez, I would have supported that. If they'd instead jumped into the seller's market of rental bats with pending free agents Matt Weiters and Chris Davis, that would have been entertaining and probably really opportunistic. Instead, the core of recent Baltimore playoff teams is about to have its last gasp. While any of these .500-ish teams could make the Wild Card game and it wouldn't shock me, I'm not optimistic about the short or long term future of this team. We're three months from it being Manny Machado and a bunch of whatever.
Boston Red Sox: Who would have thought that a season build around mediocre starting pitchers and aging sluggers forced to play out of position could have gone so badly? All that money saved in the Gonzalez-Crawford-Beckett trade, all the possibilities it opened up for the Red Sox, have come to this: $22.5M to Rick Porcello for four more years. $22M to Hanley Ramirez for three more years. $19M to Pablo Sandoval for four more years. Those contracts, all less than a year old, all of them apparent busts, define the state of the Red Sox franchise at this moment. Not even Wade Miley's smile can save them now. The stealth rebuild is on, and Bogaerts, Betts, the catching tandem, and the pitching prospects are nice pieces to have. There was simply no selling to be done at the deadline, since the value of their veterans to other teams has cratered in 2015. They'll have to clean up the mess while working around these sunk costs, and it's going to be awkward and difficult. Since Red Sox fans have become justifiably entitled- tied for the most World Series rings this century- it's a matter of knowledge, rather than belief, that these problems will be fixed. And they will be. But there's a real chance that Ben Cherington won't be the one to make the fixes.
New York Yankees: Going into the 2015 season, I couldn't find any compelling reasons to pick one team over another in the AL East. I ended up picking the Yankees to finish last because of their age and likely health issues. So of course, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez have combined for roughly 6 WAR so far- aka their entire division lead. A lot has gone right, but the Yankees aren't chasing the best record in the AL strictly due to luck. The bullpen has been Royals-esque, and the lineup that looked so suspect heading into the season is second in baseball in runs scored. Even though I still don't believe this is real (in the "not a fluke" sense, not the "actually happened" sense) I have to accept that over 100 games are in the books and the record is what it is. The odds of all these resurgent players missing significant time with injuries is now pretty low, and that's what I thought would sink this team. I thought an addition to the rotation or a usable outfielder would be a smart hedge, but instead they brought in Dustin Ackley. If I were a Yankees fan, I wouldn't be able to get over that rotation, especially with Michael Pineda out with a forearm strain, which usually means elbow problems. A shutdown bullpen doesn't mean as much when your starter can't hold a lead through five innings, and the Yankees aren't so dominant offensively that they're immune to good playoff pitching. I would hope like hell that they hold off the Blue Jays, celebrate one of the team's least likely AL East titles in my lifetime if it happens, and then take the playoffs as a bonus. It's simply amazing that this "best team money could buy five years ago" thing hasn't already crashed and burned. They've still got another year before the biggest contracts come off the books, and I would spend that year learning all I could about Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Jorge Mateo, and Luis Severino. They're just about as likely to be relevant to the next Yankees World Series as anyone on the current roster.
Tampa Bay Rays: If I were a Rays fan, I would be lonely and sad there aren't more of me. I also don't quite understand trading away a quality late-inning reliever when you're still in the Wild Card race. But hey, there's still a pretty good collection of pitchers both in Tampa and throughout the organization, as they've clawed their way back to an average farm system after years of picking late in the first round. All that said, I'd still have my doubts that this front office, minus Andrew Friedman, can keep the run of contention going. We're eight months removed from the first major deal of the Matt Silverman era: the Wil Myers trade. At this point their big get, Steven Souza Jr., is on the DL with an OPS around .700. Meanwhile, the players they passed on to Washington- Trea Turner and Joe Ross- are absolutely crushing it at their respective levels. What made Friedman special in Tampa was his ability to walk the razor's edge, giving up players at the peak of their value in order to add high-end, almost major-league-ready talent. It's just one trade, I know, but that looks like a huge missed opportunity and a very un-Friedman set of decisions. All they had to do was make it a two-team trade, take San Diego's guys, and they'd be looking really good. Instead, Washington got more elite talent. As I expressed in my season preview posts, I would be worried as a Rays fan that I've already seen my last playoff game in Tampa.
Toronto Blue Jays: That lineup is so shiny and pretty, I just want to stare at it until my eyes water. All these average teams in the AL Wild Card picture, and only one of them has the ability to score six billion runs per game. What does Alex Anthopolous care about Jeff Hoffman, Daniel Norris, and the rest when he knows he just gave his city the best team in the Wild Card race? And it's not like this is a one-year thing, either. This lineup still has prime years left, and some of them will be under contract in Toronto. This is like someone recreating the 1999 Indians with nothing but the brass ones necessary to trade for Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki. And the presence of David Price, the final head-exploder in this trilogy of mad genius, just means the one-game playoff is something the Jays are actually looking forward to- assuming they don't just blow past the Yankees, that is. There's risk and downside, as always, but remember, everyone said Anthopolous strip mined his farm system when he acquired Jose Reyes, Mark Buerhle, Josh Johnson, and R.A. Dickey after the 2012 season. And he did- Henderson Alvarez, Travis D'Arnaud, and Noah Syndergaard all look pretty good today, and that isn't half of what he gave up. But the point is, in less than three years' time, he managed to regenerate enough prospect depth to acquire the greatest left side of the infield in recent memory without ever trading from the major league roster. If this falls short, there's no reason to think he can't do it again. Right now, I'm more jealous of Blue Jays fans than I am of any other fanbase. The presence of Toronto in the playoffs opens up the possibility of some of the most insane, unlikely, unprecedented playoff games ever. As soon as my Sox fall out of this ugly race, I will be rooting every day for a Jays-Royals ALCS. The baseball world needs this kind of chaos.
That's my state of MLB, early August, 2015. We'll check back in in two months to make playoff predictions, then I'll be sure to make fun of myself for all the wrong things I've said this year once it's all over.
Baltimore Orioles: The O's are one of the many average teams in the Wild Card scrum. Dan Duquette insisted they would buy at the deadline, and they did, but I don't think they did it right. Thanks in part to the continued injury problems of their best minor league arms, it seemed obvious to me that they needed a pitching upgrade. Instead they sent Zach Davies, a real pitching prospect, to Milwaukee in exchange for Gerardo Parra. Parra is essentially a fourth outfielder in the midst of a career year that makes him look like a viable starter. Now look, the O's' non-Adam Jones outfielders have been terrible this year, so if they wanted to give up Davies in a deal for Justin Upton or Carlos Gonzalez, I would have supported that. If they'd instead jumped into the seller's market of rental bats with pending free agents Matt Weiters and Chris Davis, that would have been entertaining and probably really opportunistic. Instead, the core of recent Baltimore playoff teams is about to have its last gasp. While any of these .500-ish teams could make the Wild Card game and it wouldn't shock me, I'm not optimistic about the short or long term future of this team. We're three months from it being Manny Machado and a bunch of whatever.
Boston Red Sox: Who would have thought that a season build around mediocre starting pitchers and aging sluggers forced to play out of position could have gone so badly? All that money saved in the Gonzalez-Crawford-Beckett trade, all the possibilities it opened up for the Red Sox, have come to this: $22.5M to Rick Porcello for four more years. $22M to Hanley Ramirez for three more years. $19M to Pablo Sandoval for four more years. Those contracts, all less than a year old, all of them apparent busts, define the state of the Red Sox franchise at this moment. Not even Wade Miley's smile can save them now. The stealth rebuild is on, and Bogaerts, Betts, the catching tandem, and the pitching prospects are nice pieces to have. There was simply no selling to be done at the deadline, since the value of their veterans to other teams has cratered in 2015. They'll have to clean up the mess while working around these sunk costs, and it's going to be awkward and difficult. Since Red Sox fans have become justifiably entitled- tied for the most World Series rings this century- it's a matter of knowledge, rather than belief, that these problems will be fixed. And they will be. But there's a real chance that Ben Cherington won't be the one to make the fixes.
New York Yankees: Going into the 2015 season, I couldn't find any compelling reasons to pick one team over another in the AL East. I ended up picking the Yankees to finish last because of their age and likely health issues. So of course, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez have combined for roughly 6 WAR so far- aka their entire division lead. A lot has gone right, but the Yankees aren't chasing the best record in the AL strictly due to luck. The bullpen has been Royals-esque, and the lineup that looked so suspect heading into the season is second in baseball in runs scored. Even though I still don't believe this is real (in the "not a fluke" sense, not the "actually happened" sense) I have to accept that over 100 games are in the books and the record is what it is. The odds of all these resurgent players missing significant time with injuries is now pretty low, and that's what I thought would sink this team. I thought an addition to the rotation or a usable outfielder would be a smart hedge, but instead they brought in Dustin Ackley. If I were a Yankees fan, I wouldn't be able to get over that rotation, especially with Michael Pineda out with a forearm strain, which usually means elbow problems. A shutdown bullpen doesn't mean as much when your starter can't hold a lead through five innings, and the Yankees aren't so dominant offensively that they're immune to good playoff pitching. I would hope like hell that they hold off the Blue Jays, celebrate one of the team's least likely AL East titles in my lifetime if it happens, and then take the playoffs as a bonus. It's simply amazing that this "best team money could buy five years ago" thing hasn't already crashed and burned. They've still got another year before the biggest contracts come off the books, and I would spend that year learning all I could about Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Jorge Mateo, and Luis Severino. They're just about as likely to be relevant to the next Yankees World Series as anyone on the current roster.
Tampa Bay Rays: If I were a Rays fan, I would be lonely and sad there aren't more of me. I also don't quite understand trading away a quality late-inning reliever when you're still in the Wild Card race. But hey, there's still a pretty good collection of pitchers both in Tampa and throughout the organization, as they've clawed their way back to an average farm system after years of picking late in the first round. All that said, I'd still have my doubts that this front office, minus Andrew Friedman, can keep the run of contention going. We're eight months removed from the first major deal of the Matt Silverman era: the Wil Myers trade. At this point their big get, Steven Souza Jr., is on the DL with an OPS around .700. Meanwhile, the players they passed on to Washington- Trea Turner and Joe Ross- are absolutely crushing it at their respective levels. What made Friedman special in Tampa was his ability to walk the razor's edge, giving up players at the peak of their value in order to add high-end, almost major-league-ready talent. It's just one trade, I know, but that looks like a huge missed opportunity and a very un-Friedman set of decisions. All they had to do was make it a two-team trade, take San Diego's guys, and they'd be looking really good. Instead, Washington got more elite talent. As I expressed in my season preview posts, I would be worried as a Rays fan that I've already seen my last playoff game in Tampa.
Toronto Blue Jays: That lineup is so shiny and pretty, I just want to stare at it until my eyes water. All these average teams in the AL Wild Card picture, and only one of them has the ability to score six billion runs per game. What does Alex Anthopolous care about Jeff Hoffman, Daniel Norris, and the rest when he knows he just gave his city the best team in the Wild Card race? And it's not like this is a one-year thing, either. This lineup still has prime years left, and some of them will be under contract in Toronto. This is like someone recreating the 1999 Indians with nothing but the brass ones necessary to trade for Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki. And the presence of David Price, the final head-exploder in this trilogy of mad genius, just means the one-game playoff is something the Jays are actually looking forward to- assuming they don't just blow past the Yankees, that is. There's risk and downside, as always, but remember, everyone said Anthopolous strip mined his farm system when he acquired Jose Reyes, Mark Buerhle, Josh Johnson, and R.A. Dickey after the 2012 season. And he did- Henderson Alvarez, Travis D'Arnaud, and Noah Syndergaard all look pretty good today, and that isn't half of what he gave up. But the point is, in less than three years' time, he managed to regenerate enough prospect depth to acquire the greatest left side of the infield in recent memory without ever trading from the major league roster. If this falls short, there's no reason to think he can't do it again. Right now, I'm more jealous of Blue Jays fans than I am of any other fanbase. The presence of Toronto in the playoffs opens up the possibility of some of the most insane, unlikely, unprecedented playoff games ever. As soon as my Sox fall out of this ugly race, I will be rooting every day for a Jays-Royals ALCS. The baseball world needs this kind of chaos.
That's my state of MLB, early August, 2015. We'll check back in in two months to make playoff predictions, then I'll be sure to make fun of myself for all the wrong things I've said this year once it's all over.
State of the Franchises: AL Central
Chicago White Sox: Well, at least they didn't give players away like the Marlins. The whole AL Wild Card race is a morass of flawed teams, and it intrigues me that the Sox are part of it. Not a big part, though, because the offense is nonexistent. One could hope for Jose Abreu to catch fire for two months, and for guys like Alexei and Melky to get some positive regression. One could hope for their front four starters to lock in like the 2005 group. But with all the teams they'd have to pass to make it into the one-game series, as bad as those teams are, two of them are bound to have hot streaks that give them some separation. I think the Sox already had their streak, and they peaked at .500. So I'm disappointed, because I thought this was a good team in March, but I didn't want or expect a major selloff at the deadline. I'm sure Shark could have gotten more than a draft pick's worth of talent in a trade, but then we wouldn't have this ridiculous, laughable, but not completely stupid hope that he could start a playoff game. I still trust Rick Hahn to make good decisions, and when we end this season with somewhere between 77-81 wins, he'll get to work and I'll still care. But this whole season has been a big ball of meh.
Cleveland Indians: They decided against making the big move, trading away someone like the slumping Carlos Santana or the amazing Carlos Carrasco, and parted with a couple other minor pieces for minor returns. Rob Kaminsky, acquired from the Cardinals for Brandon Moss, looks like the big prize. It's worth noting, however, that a number of the Indians' best players were acquired as minor returns in minor trades. Finding the Yan Gomeses and Corey Klubers of the world is this front office's best skill. This year has sucked out loud for Cleveland, but for all we know Eric Stamets, the double-A shortstop the Angels gave up for David Murphy, is going to become a star. And with controllable, quality pitching depth, bona fide guys like Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley in the lineup, and the arrival of top prospect Francisco Lindor, it never feels like this team is more than a mid-level upgrade away from contending. Once the Bourn and Swisher contracts stop smothering this small-market franchise after the 2016 season, they might even be able to make that upgrade.
Detroit Tigers: Remember what I said about the morass of flawed teams going for the Wild Card? The Tigers were probably the best of those teams even if they did absolutely nothing, and they decided to White Flag it instead, cashing in David Price, Joakim Soria, and Yoenis Cespedes for prospects. To be fair, every one of those deals returned more prospect value than should have been expected, and few teams needed a farm system rejuvenation as much as the Tigers. On a personal level, I'm delighted, because it means I got one team out of five right in my AL Central predictions and I always like to see titans fall. And standing pat or trading for more help could definitely have been a waste, as the upside was making it to a one-game playoff. So yes, there's a strong argument to be made that this was the right call. It's just not an argument I would give half a crap about if I were a Tigers fan. The one-game playoff would be against an inferior team. And more importantly, the Tigers had already pushed almost all their chips into the pot. They'd bet, raised, and called until there was a huge pile of money in the middle, then they folded instead of putting their last five bucks in. If the rest of the team could manage to stay afloat while Miguel Cabrera healed up, they'd be looking at a stretch run with an ace, a solid closer, a still-fearsome middle of the lineup, and they'd be chasing some just-barely-better-than-average teams in Baltimore, Toronto, Anaheim, and Minnesota. The Detroit Tigers, four-time defending champions of the AL Central, property of Mike "Win me a World Series before I die" Ilitch, looked up at the Twins and the Angels and decided to pack it in. If I were a Tigers fan, I don't think I'd be able to talk about this, much less write about it.
Kansas City Royals: With the Royals, we might be facing the most important three months of baseball for any team in my lifetime. Think I'm exaggerating? I'm not. By trading for Cueto and Zobrist- both costly additions, but also perfect fits for the team- this is the real definition of all-in. They were going to win the division anyway, but now, rings are the thing. Maybe a return to the World Series will be enough. If they succeed, maybe the fans will come back en masse, maybe the Glass family will spend some pittance of their enormous wealth to keep the team's payroll and roster respectable, and maybe Dayton Moore will preside over the most complete and lasting franchise turnaround since Andrew Friedman fixed the Rays. IF they succeed. If they fail, there are no maybes, there are just truths. The Glass family will enact some version of the Jeffrey Loria doctrine: "We spent $100M and didn't win, so we might as well spend $40M and not win." Moore will spin this as "We were overextended with our payroll and we needed to get it back in line with our market size." The Process, as it used to be derisively referred to and is now respected as a real thing, will have to start all over again. The Royals will lose free agent Alex Gordon along with Zobrist and Cueto. Their aging roster and depleted farm system will require a trade of one or more of their core position players to make payroll and undo some of the damage the system sustained this July. In short, Kansas City's renaissance as a baseball town could last a mere 15 months. No pressure, Johnny. And remember, kids, it doesn't matter if the billionaire behind Wal-Mart owns your team. It doesn't matter that revenue sharing and bloated TV deals mean that every owner is making money. The amount of money spent on your team is all about how many people live in your town. For Royals fans, I offer the same advice I give myself every day I wake up cancer-free and moderately sane: Enjoy it while it lasts.
Minnesota Twins: They traded a couple young pitching prospects for Kevin Jepsen, a quality setup man and potential insurance against a Glen Perkins injury. OK, fine. Terry Ryan addressed one of the Twins' weaknesses without committing to the team's tenuous hold on a Wild Card spot. Obviously any fanbase would get fired up over an unexpected playoff berth, but I think Twins fans know that next year isn't here. Staying in the Wild Card race and getting above .500 in 2015 is enough to build some positive momentum for 2016, which should be the first full seasons for superstars-in-waiting Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. The organization still lacks high-ceiling arms, and settling for cheaper, non-strikeout-oriented pitchers is a bad habit that will only make it harder for this team to ascend. If they do find a way to pick up an ace this winter, they could definitely contend again, but next time it won't be a mirage. The only way I would have bought into the 2015 Twins is if they'd jumped the gun a little and brought in someone from the Price/Hamels/Cueto class, but those blockbuster buys have never been the Twins' DNA. It's for the best, anyway. The less emphasis you put on this year's stretch run, the happier you'll be as a Twins fan.
Cleveland Indians: They decided against making the big move, trading away someone like the slumping Carlos Santana or the amazing Carlos Carrasco, and parted with a couple other minor pieces for minor returns. Rob Kaminsky, acquired from the Cardinals for Brandon Moss, looks like the big prize. It's worth noting, however, that a number of the Indians' best players were acquired as minor returns in minor trades. Finding the Yan Gomeses and Corey Klubers of the world is this front office's best skill. This year has sucked out loud for Cleveland, but for all we know Eric Stamets, the double-A shortstop the Angels gave up for David Murphy, is going to become a star. And with controllable, quality pitching depth, bona fide guys like Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley in the lineup, and the arrival of top prospect Francisco Lindor, it never feels like this team is more than a mid-level upgrade away from contending. Once the Bourn and Swisher contracts stop smothering this small-market franchise after the 2016 season, they might even be able to make that upgrade.
Detroit Tigers: Remember what I said about the morass of flawed teams going for the Wild Card? The Tigers were probably the best of those teams even if they did absolutely nothing, and they decided to White Flag it instead, cashing in David Price, Joakim Soria, and Yoenis Cespedes for prospects. To be fair, every one of those deals returned more prospect value than should have been expected, and few teams needed a farm system rejuvenation as much as the Tigers. On a personal level, I'm delighted, because it means I got one team out of five right in my AL Central predictions and I always like to see titans fall. And standing pat or trading for more help could definitely have been a waste, as the upside was making it to a one-game playoff. So yes, there's a strong argument to be made that this was the right call. It's just not an argument I would give half a crap about if I were a Tigers fan. The one-game playoff would be against an inferior team. And more importantly, the Tigers had already pushed almost all their chips into the pot. They'd bet, raised, and called until there was a huge pile of money in the middle, then they folded instead of putting their last five bucks in. If the rest of the team could manage to stay afloat while Miguel Cabrera healed up, they'd be looking at a stretch run with an ace, a solid closer, a still-fearsome middle of the lineup, and they'd be chasing some just-barely-better-than-average teams in Baltimore, Toronto, Anaheim, and Minnesota. The Detroit Tigers, four-time defending champions of the AL Central, property of Mike "Win me a World Series before I die" Ilitch, looked up at the Twins and the Angels and decided to pack it in. If I were a Tigers fan, I don't think I'd be able to talk about this, much less write about it.
Kansas City Royals: With the Royals, we might be facing the most important three months of baseball for any team in my lifetime. Think I'm exaggerating? I'm not. By trading for Cueto and Zobrist- both costly additions, but also perfect fits for the team- this is the real definition of all-in. They were going to win the division anyway, but now, rings are the thing. Maybe a return to the World Series will be enough. If they succeed, maybe the fans will come back en masse, maybe the Glass family will spend some pittance of their enormous wealth to keep the team's payroll and roster respectable, and maybe Dayton Moore will preside over the most complete and lasting franchise turnaround since Andrew Friedman fixed the Rays. IF they succeed. If they fail, there are no maybes, there are just truths. The Glass family will enact some version of the Jeffrey Loria doctrine: "We spent $100M and didn't win, so we might as well spend $40M and not win." Moore will spin this as "We were overextended with our payroll and we needed to get it back in line with our market size." The Process, as it used to be derisively referred to and is now respected as a real thing, will have to start all over again. The Royals will lose free agent Alex Gordon along with Zobrist and Cueto. Their aging roster and depleted farm system will require a trade of one or more of their core position players to make payroll and undo some of the damage the system sustained this July. In short, Kansas City's renaissance as a baseball town could last a mere 15 months. No pressure, Johnny. And remember, kids, it doesn't matter if the billionaire behind Wal-Mart owns your team. It doesn't matter that revenue sharing and bloated TV deals mean that every owner is making money. The amount of money spent on your team is all about how many people live in your town. For Royals fans, I offer the same advice I give myself every day I wake up cancer-free and moderately sane: Enjoy it while it lasts.
Minnesota Twins: They traded a couple young pitching prospects for Kevin Jepsen, a quality setup man and potential insurance against a Glen Perkins injury. OK, fine. Terry Ryan addressed one of the Twins' weaknesses without committing to the team's tenuous hold on a Wild Card spot. Obviously any fanbase would get fired up over an unexpected playoff berth, but I think Twins fans know that next year isn't here. Staying in the Wild Card race and getting above .500 in 2015 is enough to build some positive momentum for 2016, which should be the first full seasons for superstars-in-waiting Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. The organization still lacks high-ceiling arms, and settling for cheaper, non-strikeout-oriented pitchers is a bad habit that will only make it harder for this team to ascend. If they do find a way to pick up an ace this winter, they could definitely contend again, but next time it won't be a mirage. The only way I would have bought into the 2015 Twins is if they'd jumped the gun a little and brought in someone from the Price/Hamels/Cueto class, but those blockbuster buys have never been the Twins' DNA. It's for the best, anyway. The less emphasis you put on this year's stretch run, the happier you'll be as a Twins fan.
Sunday, August 2, 2015
State of the Franchises: AL West
Houston Astros: The most important thing I can note about the Astros is that it's 2015 and they have the second-best record in the American League. They're well ahead of schedule on the rebuild in both lineup depth and pitching adequacy, so they're basically a World Series contender right now. That's going to be enough for a lot of Astros fans. If we're looking for downsides, here's one: Was Jeff Luhnow too aggressive at the deadline? Brett Phillips, Jacob Nottingham, and Domingo Santana were some of the highlights of their deep reserves of minor league talent, and now they're gone. As always with prospects, we won't know for years, but the team's top-heavy and talent-heavy 2015 draft might have replenished the system before it was even depleted. Back to the present, Scott Kazmir and Carlos Gomez make the Astros one of the short-term winners of the deadline, and nobody should be surprised if they run away and hide in the West. Even if they lose these trades with years of hindsight, they look pretty tough right now and there's still a lot of talent in the minors. I'd take that deal.
Los Angeles Angels of The Red Team: Bill Stoneman picked up three spare-part outfielders to replace the ones who helped drag the Angels toward the bottom of the AL in offense, despite the presence of Mike Trout and a surprisingly dangerous Albert Pujols. Mike Scioscia has more options now than he did a couple weeks ago. It's just far from a sure thing that David Murphy, David DeJesus, and Shane Victorino are actually upgrades on the Matt Joyce/C.J. Cron Krappenfest Angels fans have been treated to for 100 games. They're just the outfielders who were available to bargain shoppers. Also, it's not Stoneman's fault that C.J. Wilson might miss the rest of the season, but since he didn't add any pitching it's now essential that Hector Santiago continues his stellar breakout year and Jered Weaver contributes. There are plenty of teams in the Wild Card race, and the Angels (and Twins, but we'll get to that) have to look vulnerable to any of the six teams clustered around .500. However, they still have Mike Trout and a pretty nice collection of young arms, so this isn't really a do-or-die year for them.
Oakland Athletics: They didn't look good going into 2015, they met only the lowest expectations, and now Billy Beane is talking about going the way of the Astros and Cubs. That's a pretty big bummer. I guess their deadline haul, scoring the aforementioned Nottingham along with Sean Manaea and Casey Meisner, is a silver lining. But if Beane is willing to take a step back, we need to do the same. The highwire act of simultaneously contending and rebuilding ended the moment Josh Donaldson was traded. Maybe even before that- was it the Samardzija trade that broke the cycle? No matter. Now they're just another low-payroll team with other teams gearing up for the Sonny Gray sweepstakes to begin. Sorry about that, A's fans. But you know what, you've had it pretty good for a while now. So I'm not that sorry.
Seattle Mariners: The M's are going nowhere fast, and didn't trade anybody good enough to bring back a notable return. Is this the new most boring team in baseball? With Felix, Cano, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz all locked up for at least another few years, the M's have been sending signals of contention for a while, but the rest of the major league roster begs to differ. At least being bad means they've had high draft picks and a deep minor league system, right? Um, nope, not so much. Last year's apparently legit run at the postseason masked all kinds of flaws and made people much smarter than me buy in, but a year later, those predictions look incredibly off base. I even said in my season preview I wasn't crazy about Seattle and there were infinite ways it could all go wrong, and I STILL picked them for a Wild Card. Now I don't remember what any of us were thinking. It's not my call, nor should it be, but GMs have been fired for less than what Jack Zduriencik's perpetrated here. The coming years aren't likely to be a whole lot better than this one.
Texas Rangers: Can a team trade away three high-end prospects in July, miss the playoffs, and still have the season be a success? That's what we're looking at with the Rangers. The Cole Hamels acquisition could help them sneak into a Wild Card game this year but the trade was really about 2016 and beyond, when the Rangers hope Yu Darvish will be back atop the rotation and Jurickson Profar will resume his long-delayed ascent to stardom. It's a fascinating trade for that reason alone: we can't even begin to evaluate it until Hamels's contract is up in three or four years. I have my doubts about the value he brings to this team. Even with Philadelphia paying down Hamels' salary, we have to wonder how much money will be available to augment a core of position players that is more salary and reputation than production these days. If you believe in the Rangers, it means you believe in guys like Josh Hamilton, Shin-Soo Choo, and Prince Fielder. It means you believe giving Darvish a 1-A in Hamels was the missing piece of the puzzle. I'm always happy to be surprised, but I don't believe in any of that. Even though the Hamels trade was great value in a vacuum, it might not end up as more than a waste of minor league talent.
Oakland Athletics: They didn't look good going into 2015, they met only the lowest expectations, and now Billy Beane is talking about going the way of the Astros and Cubs. That's a pretty big bummer. I guess their deadline haul, scoring the aforementioned Nottingham along with Sean Manaea and Casey Meisner, is a silver lining. But if Beane is willing to take a step back, we need to do the same. The highwire act of simultaneously contending and rebuilding ended the moment Josh Donaldson was traded. Maybe even before that- was it the Samardzija trade that broke the cycle? No matter. Now they're just another low-payroll team with other teams gearing up for the Sonny Gray sweepstakes to begin. Sorry about that, A's fans. But you know what, you've had it pretty good for a while now. So I'm not that sorry.
Seattle Mariners: The M's are going nowhere fast, and didn't trade anybody good enough to bring back a notable return. Is this the new most boring team in baseball? With Felix, Cano, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz all locked up for at least another few years, the M's have been sending signals of contention for a while, but the rest of the major league roster begs to differ. At least being bad means they've had high draft picks and a deep minor league system, right? Um, nope, not so much. Last year's apparently legit run at the postseason masked all kinds of flaws and made people much smarter than me buy in, but a year later, those predictions look incredibly off base. I even said in my season preview I wasn't crazy about Seattle and there were infinite ways it could all go wrong, and I STILL picked them for a Wild Card. Now I don't remember what any of us were thinking. It's not my call, nor should it be, but GMs have been fired for less than what Jack Zduriencik's perpetrated here. The coming years aren't likely to be a whole lot better than this one.
Texas Rangers: Can a team trade away three high-end prospects in July, miss the playoffs, and still have the season be a success? That's what we're looking at with the Rangers. The Cole Hamels acquisition could help them sneak into a Wild Card game this year but the trade was really about 2016 and beyond, when the Rangers hope Yu Darvish will be back atop the rotation and Jurickson Profar will resume his long-delayed ascent to stardom. It's a fascinating trade for that reason alone: we can't even begin to evaluate it until Hamels's contract is up in three or four years. I have my doubts about the value he brings to this team. Even with Philadelphia paying down Hamels' salary, we have to wonder how much money will be available to augment a core of position players that is more salary and reputation than production these days. If you believe in the Rangers, it means you believe in guys like Josh Hamilton, Shin-Soo Choo, and Prince Fielder. It means you believe giving Darvish a 1-A in Hamels was the missing piece of the puzzle. I'm always happy to be surprised, but I don't believe in any of that. Even though the Hamels trade was great value in a vacuum, it might not end up as more than a waste of minor league talent.
Saturday, August 1, 2015
State of the Franchises: NL East
Atlanta Braves: Trading useful short-term assets Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson for two interesting arms is in keeping with the John Hart plan of making sure nobody but the Braves has any pitching in five years. That's fine. But their role in the Dodgers/Marlins megatrade makes even less sense today than it did yesterday, as it's been reported that Atlanta is still paying the nearly $10M owed to Bronson Arroyo. So Hart must really, really like Hector Olivera, because he essentially gave up Alex Wood, Jose Peraza, and Jim Johnson for Olivera, prospect Zach Bird, and a draft pick from Miami. I've sung Hart's praises in this space before, but I don't get this one at all on a short or long term level. If I rooted for the Braves this would confuse and disappoint me, but Hart would have the benefit of my doubt. He's made so many great moves, maybe this one turns out fine. No idea how, but there's always a chance.
Miami Marlins: One of my favorite fantasies is to pretend I own the Marlins. And every time they make a signature Jeffrey Loria move- like giving away Mat Latos just to dump Michael Morse's contract- I say to myself, "OK, I'll take over the team tomorrow." The reality of the Marlins and their owner is nothing less than the opposite of my fondest dreams. Their other deadline trades weren't so bad: Ivan Pineyro, the pitching prospect acquired in exchange for Dan Haren, has some upside. Catcher Tomas Telis was a surprisingly strong return for reliever Sam Dyson. And I have no real problem with dumping Steve Cishek on the Cardinals. But the yo-yo of building and tearing down in Miami is the same embarrassment it's always been. Sell the team, Jeffrey Loria. Please. I want my team of choice- as opposed to my White Sox fandom, which is an inherited trait- to act like a real major league franchise and not a fantasy team run by a guy who sucks at fantasy. If I owned the team, I would pick a direction and stick with it instead of these half-assed attempts to contend that undo all the work of building a farm system. I would also bring back the teal and black. I would use the current uniform design, but replace the "technicolor barfbag" palette with the old colors. I might add a little gold accent in place of the silver in the following picture, but that's all. The team would win and look good doing it. I'm the Everlasting Dave, and I approve this message.
New York Mets: As I said in my trade suggestions post, one big bat wasn't going to solve the Mets' offensive woes. But two league-average players in Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe, plus dynamic outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, fit the bill quite nicely. Hit with the year-long Jenrry Mejia suspension, they also went out and got reliever Tyler Clippard to fill the void. They gave up some prospect depth in each deal, but not from the very top of the system. Just fair prices for necessary upgrades. Am I crazy to think they're lucky the Carlos Gomez trade was scuttled? Zach Wheeler is such a big piece, and they added some lineup depth while keeping their injured, controllable number 2 starter in their back pocket for 2016. Among the three rebuilt teams who found success a year early, I think the Mets hit a sweet spot in supporting a playoff run without compromising the future. The Astros moved much more aggressively, giving up high-end guys as well as depth to push for the division title, while the Cubs did little more than sit on their hands. If I were a Mets fan, I don't think I would have wanted anything more or less than what they did this July. I also think my faith in Sandy Alderson would be at an all-time high.
Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies finally caught up to rebuilding expectations this July. It started with clearing Jonathan Papelbon's salary while bringing back an OK prospect. Then the long-awaited Cole Hamels blockbuster finally went down, with both quantity (Six players) and quality (Three of them top 100 prospects) coming back from Texas. Finally, they snagged two relief prospects from the Jays for slap-hitting outfielder Ben Revere. With this influx of young talent joining the fruits of three consecutive good drafts, the Phillies skipped right over the "signs of life in the minors" stage of rebuilding to the "collection of promising young talent" phase, with a solid six players in MLB.com's current top 100 prospects list. The major league team will be bad for at least another couple years, but that just means more high draft picks like the ones that netted J.P. Crawford, Aaron Nola, and Cornelius Randolph and more international bonus pool money they can use to find more Maikel Francos. And once enough of them make it to the show, there's no doubt the Phillies will swing the money hammer, just as they have over the past eight years. This renewed commitment to player development is the corpse reviver every Phillies fan needs after the 2013-14 hangover. It doesn't measure up to being a great team for five years, as they so recently were, but watching the pieces fall into place is its own kind of exciting. Just as long as you trust the architects.
Washington Nationals: The Nationals have had some bad injury luck this season, but they're still leading the division and approaching full health as we head into the home stretch. Joe Ross has been outstanding as Stephen Strasburg's replacement, and Clint Robinson has racked up a .349 OBP filling in for Denard Span and Jayson Werth. Tough to complain about that. They also added Jonathan Papelbon, possibly the best reliever traded at the deadline, moving Drew Storen back to his old setup man job. Nats fans can only hope that health and luck are on their side come October, because there's not much more Mike Rizzo and the Lerner family can do. This is a win-now team that's going to have to answer some tough questions after the season, but if Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer can bring this franchise its first title in October that'll take the edge off. High expectations come with this much talent, and Harper of all people sets a fine example for how to handle them. If I were a Nationals fan I would be supremely confident in my team's ability to hold off the Mets in the regular season, and I would just have to wait and hope they can get lucky against the Cardinals, Dodgers, or any Wild Card upstarts in the playoffs. Harper the likely MVP, Max Scherzer and an outstanding bullpen tandem are pretty good guys on whom to pin your hopes.
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