2017 MLB Predictions

And so, it was at 1:34 AM after a typical Friday night that The Everlasting Dave attempted to write a sentence or two about every baseball team, before they had played too many games. Then he passed out and finished this on Sunday. Unfortunately, this all occurred a week later than it should have, but tradition is tradition.

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs. I wonder about how a player like Schwarber fits in on a versatile roster, and it would be amazing if their pitching stayed as healthy as they did last year. Still.

2. St. Louis Cardinals. Dexter Fowler is a really good player, and the rest of the division mostly got worse. Too much uncertainty with the starting pitching though.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates. Glasnow, Taillon, and even Ivan Nova will all be pitchers to watch for various reasons.

4. Cincinnati Reds. I know lineup protection is a myth, and I know he makes a ton of money for a mid-market team, but having Joey Votto around as new position players break into the majors seems good for a lot of reasons.

5. Milwaukee Brewers. David Stearns has already filled out the lineup with players other teams didn't value. If he can do the same thing with the pitching staff, maybe there's something here.

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers. Hill and Kazmir start the year on the DL, and they're like, whatever. We have 8 starting pitchers for a reason. I'm not going to underrate Kershaw, Seager, and this depth.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks. This is so simple: Jeff Mathis is catching Zack Greinke, Taijuan Walker, and Shelby Miller. And A.J. Pollock is back.

3. San Francisco Giants. The offense needs a lot of help. They would still line up well in a playoff series with two aces and a couple shutdown relievers, but I don't think they get there.

4. Colorado Rockies. I get why some people think this is a sleeper team, but so much has to go right. With young starting pitchers. At Coors.

5. San Diego Padres. Three Rule 5 picks. Three!

NL East

1. Washington Nationals. Let's not forget Mike Rizzo got Trea Turner and Joe Ross for Steven Souza. There's no shortage of reasons to pick the Nats for first, but that's the one I'm going with.

2. New York Mets. I don't love this team, but they're probably good enough to beat up on the rest of their division. As always it comes down to health, so who knows. They could crater.

3. Atlanta Braves. Is it so unreasonable to think R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon have one more great run, Matt Kemp hits a ton of homers, and this weird team takes a Wild Card? Yes. Yes it is.

4. Philadelphia Phillies. Some Proven Veteran pitchers, some already-promoted guys and successful Rule 5 guys, and a bunch of players we'll see in September.

5. Miami Marlins. I guess. Let's get the Derek Jeter ownership group in there. Yeah Jeets.

Playoffs: Diamondbacks over Mets, Dodgers over Diamondbacks, Cubs over Nationals, Dodgers over Cubs

AL West

1. Seattle Mariners. This could be an ugly division, but this time around I'm going with Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, and Robinson Cano. I think they have some other players too.l

2. Texas Rangers. Of course it could just be Darvish, Hamels, and a deep bullpen that winds up on top. As long as Beltre's there, there's no discounting them.

3. Houston Astros. I don't get the air of inevitability about this team. Bregman, Correa, and Springer might yet do unprecedented things, but who else on the roster will?

4. The Red Team. There's a weird Dorian Grey thing going on here. Mike Trout keeps getting better, the rest of the Angels keep getting worse.

5. Oakland Athletics. Did I overlook the A's when I named the Rockies baseball's most boring team? Or is this group of pitchers just much better than I think they are?

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians. A lot went right for the Indians last year, but there's some room to improve when it comes to health. Hard to see them falling back to this particular pack.

2. Detroit Tigers. Some teams trade for tons of prospects. The Tigers traded for a handful of them two years ago, and are now leaning on those same players to keep their window open. It'll be tough.

3. Kansas City Royals. Serious question: what happens when Ned Yost has to find new 7th and 8th inning guys?

4. Chicago White Sox. If they keep selling off players and tank further, I'm cool with that. The higher the draft pick the better.

5. Minnesota Twins. Organizational garbage fires are a rarity in this day and age, so before the new guys have a chance to fix it, let's continue to enjoy the pitching staff "we don't care about strikeouts" gets you.

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox. As funny as it would be to watch this team collapse, there's just too many awesome players.

2. Baltimore Orioles. Every year I look at the O's roster and I'm like "oh, Wade Miley/Ubaldo Jimenez/other bad pitcher. They'll be horrible." Not this year. I'm getting ahead of the game and Wade Miley is the new market inefficiency.

3. Toronto Blue Jays. As much as I love Josh Donaldson and the rotation, I'm worried that Tulo, Martin, and Bautista will be liabilities big enough to sink even a big-payroll team.

4. Tampa Bay Rays. The pitching is there to make a run, as usual. And as usual there are some unexpected starters. Derek Norris? Still with Logan Morrison? Meh.

5. New York Yankees. Unless Greg Bird and Aaron Judge are really good, right away, and they can also pitch.

Playoffs: Blue Jays over Orioles, Indians over Blue Jays, Red Sox over Mariners, Red Sox over Indians

World Series: Dodgers over Red Sox

2016 Music: A Belated 2-for-1 Post

Maybe this blog is just for baseball predictions and year-end music lists from now on. That's alright.

I: The Albums

A bunch of bands I've loved for decades put out new music in 2016, but for the most part, they were replacement level. So from 10 to 4, I don't have much to say. If you like these bands, you will probably at least be ok with these albums.

10. Sum 41- 13 Voices
9. Weezer- Weezer (White)
8. The Pixies- Head Carrier
7. Blink 182- California
6. Green Day- Revolution Radio
5. Soul Asylum- Change of Fortune
4. NoFX- First Ditch Effort

And now, on to the ones worth talking about.

3. Wheeler Walker, Jr. - Redneck Shit


When Birdcloud came to Chicago in June they were opening for one Wheeler Walker, Jr., who is basically a male version of Birdcloud. The title track is breathtaking in just how much profanity one can fit into three minutes, and it just gets nastier from there. "Family Tree" is similarly impressive, but more creative in its disgustingness. And then there's "Drop 'em Out", an ode to boobs that Walker says "is an Oak Ridge Boys song in my head". It's amazing to me that albums like this exist at all, but two years running, dirty country is a genre I've gotten myself into.

2. Against Me! - Shape Shift With Me


I was prepared to wait another year or two for a follow-up to 2014's "Transgender Dysphoria Blues", one of my all-time favorite albums, but I got one in less than three years. "Shape Shift With Me" occasionally dips into the brutally honest space that TGDB inhabited on tracks like "Norse Truth" ("How am I gonna look you in the eyes when I've known you so very intimately?"), but it's generally just an energized punk rock record. The best songs on it are great not because Laura Jane Grace has opened up even further, but because she doesn't HAVE to anymore. TGDB is a prerequisite for this album in that it charted the path for Against Me!'s future, but SSWM sets the velocity for that path. Still personal, still political, but supercharged with brand new confidence.

1. Brian Fallon - Painkillers


All year- except for that month where I was randomly in love with Erasure- "Painkillers" was my soundtrack. While Fallon's music with The Gaslight Anthem took emo-honest lyrics and threw loud punk-grunge-alternative guitars on top, this solo effort is more folk-rock or roots-rock than anything. It still sounds vaguely Springsteen-ish (Fallon likes to roar about cars sometimes), but I'm over that, because I'm obsessed with his lyrics. When I feel like he feels on songs like "Nobody Wins" ("I must have lived a lifetime without you/ You must have ended up somebody's angel") or "Among Other Foolish Things" ("The lights in this town they don't brighten up anything"), I stay in bed all day. When Brian Fallon feels that way, he makes brilliant music.

II. The Songs

As seen above, lyrics were a big thing for me this year. So instead of watching myself type, I'm just gonna put up the Youtubes for my ten favorite 2016 songs and my favorite lyric from each.

10. "Meet me at the station, let's pretend to go somewhere."

9. "Don't let her catch you in the act of throwing in the towel."

8. "You'll probably get hurt in heels and a skirt when you're in the middle of a circle pit."

7. "So sorry but I need your wife I'm breaking in my brand new scythe."

6. "There was this one time when I painted a masterpiece."

5. "I love a lie just like anybody else."

4. "For every Demerol-tercation, they'll have a good Xanax-planation"

3. "They talk boots while they're laughing at you-ou."

2. "A study in sophisticated nuances of putting holes in your lungs."

1. "Maybe someday they're gonna love me back to life."