1. Detroit Tigers
2013 record: 93-69 (First place. Won ALDS vs. Oakland, lost ALCS vs. Boston.)
Offseason grade: D
Other than the bullpen, the Tigers took a hit in every aspect this winter. The deep rotation is a little less deep; the powerful lineup quite a bit less powerful. Even their defense suffered when Jose Iglesias went down in spring training. Still, they have two of the best pitchers in baseball, they have the best hitter in the game, and they get to play the White Sox and Twins a bunch of times. They'll be OK.
2. Kansas City Royals
2013 record: 86-76 (Third place)
Offseason grade: B
The Royals were just a couple good players away from being a playoff team last year. This winter they picked up Omar Infante, Nori Aoki, and Danny Valencia- no superstars, but good players who will replace bad ones. Of course they're replacing Ervin Santana with Jason Vargas, so they'll need a young guy or two to step up in the rotation. We'll have to wait till part 7 of this series to see how it shakes out, but I can say right now it wouldn't shock me to see the Royals take a Wild Card spot. If everything breaks right, they could even win the division.
3. Cleveland Indians
2013 record: 92-70 (Second place. Lost Wild Card game to Tampa Bay.)
Offseason grade: F-
It was a good year for Cleveland last year as they made the playoffs for the first time since 2007. Apparently the additions of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn a year ago were the last parts of the plan, because it was a quiet winter. Now the plan is for young stud Danny Salazar and former prospect Carlos Carrasco to take the places of departed free agent pitchers Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir. If Cleveland can repeat last year's success after that, it'll be Terry Francona's greatest accomplishment. I doubt they'll be much better than .500.
4. Chicago White Sox
2013 record: 63-99 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: A
Rick Hahn has begun the difficult task of assembling the core of the next good White Sox team from the remnants of Kenny Williams's all-in-every-year reign. In Adam Eaton, Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu, and Matt Davidson, Hahn's added some significant major league-ready talent. The lineup should be better, younger, and cheaper than it's been in quite some time. The pitching staff after Chris Sale is a tire fire that seems likely to drag this team to another dismal season, but I still love the long-overdue youthanizing. And hey, if everything goes wrong, back-to-back top five picks!
5. Minnesota Twins
2013 record: 66-96 (Fourth place)
Offseason grade: B-
The lineup is Joe Mauer and a bunch of whatever, and the rotation needed the additions of Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes just to get to mediocre. Everyone knows there's lots of help coming from the minors, but it's not getting here in 2014 (Thanks for getting injured, Miguel Sano!). The majors will remain a total mess for another year.
Sunday, March 30, 2014
2014 MLB Predictions, Part I: AL East
Seven baseball posts in one day? Hell yeah we can do this!
AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2013 record: 92-71 (Second place. Won tiebreaker game vs. Texas and Wild Card game vs. Cleveland. Lost ALDS vs. Boston.)
Offseason grade: A
Two things have been constant since the Rays Renaissance of 2008: winning records and offseason trades or free agent losses of prominent players. The rest of the league should be very concerned that this winter, they said "Know what? We like our team and we're gonna keep it." Hell, they even added a high-OBP catcher and another bullpen power arm. There will be stiff competition, but the Rays could hardly have had a better winter.
2. Boston Red Sox
2013 record: 97-65 (First place. Won ALDS vs. Tampa Bay, ALCS vs. Detroit, and World Series vs. St. Louis.)
Offseason grade: D+
I'm trying my best not to overreact to the Sox' dominant 2013, nor their underwhelming winter. Picking between Boston and Tampa Bay might be the hardest call in my divisional posts. The deciding factor for me was that I don't trust Will Middlebrooks or Jackie Bradley, Jr. Boston also got verrrrry lucky with their pitching last year, and Lackey/Okajima/et al will give back a few games in 2014.
New York Yankees
2013 record: 85-77 (Tied for third/fourth place)
Offseason grade: B
Am I the only one who loves it when the Yankees buy a new lineup every winter? And does anyone else love looking forward to 2019, when Brian McCann is the new Mark Teixeira, Tanaka is A.J. Burnett times two, and Ellsbury can't play center anymore but is doing so anyway? Fun times are ahead. I can't count the Yankees out of the Wild Card race this year, but I pretty much can for the entire second half of this decade.
4. Baltimore Orioles
2013 record: 85-77 (Tied for third/fourth place.)
Offseason grade: C+
Dan Duquette's winter strategy of waiting until the market sagged was a good one. I just don't think Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz are enough help to push this team back into the playoffs. I'm happy they're relevant again, and if Bundy and Machado had just managed to stay healthy, they'd be part of the discussion. But they haven't, so they aren't.
5. Toronto Blue Jays
2013 record: 74-88 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: F
I don't understand how the Jays' front office decided to give the 2013 team another crack at it. Your team is full of injury-prone players. That is why they got injured and will likely continue to do so. That rotation just makes me sad. You're really going with Hutchinson, Morrow, AND McGowan? Do you expect them to combine for the starts of one normal pitcher, or...? The lineup makes me happy until I see the red X next to Jose Reyes's name and realize it's already begun again.
AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2013 record: 92-71 (Second place. Won tiebreaker game vs. Texas and Wild Card game vs. Cleveland. Lost ALDS vs. Boston.)
Offseason grade: A
Two things have been constant since the Rays Renaissance of 2008: winning records and offseason trades or free agent losses of prominent players. The rest of the league should be very concerned that this winter, they said "Know what? We like our team and we're gonna keep it." Hell, they even added a high-OBP catcher and another bullpen power arm. There will be stiff competition, but the Rays could hardly have had a better winter.
2. Boston Red Sox
2013 record: 97-65 (First place. Won ALDS vs. Tampa Bay, ALCS vs. Detroit, and World Series vs. St. Louis.)
Offseason grade: D+
I'm trying my best not to overreact to the Sox' dominant 2013, nor their underwhelming winter. Picking between Boston and Tampa Bay might be the hardest call in my divisional posts. The deciding factor for me was that I don't trust Will Middlebrooks or Jackie Bradley, Jr. Boston also got verrrrry lucky with their pitching last year, and Lackey/Okajima/et al will give back a few games in 2014.
New York Yankees
2013 record: 85-77 (Tied for third/fourth place)
Offseason grade: B
Am I the only one who loves it when the Yankees buy a new lineup every winter? And does anyone else love looking forward to 2019, when Brian McCann is the new Mark Teixeira, Tanaka is A.J. Burnett times two, and Ellsbury can't play center anymore but is doing so anyway? Fun times are ahead. I can't count the Yankees out of the Wild Card race this year, but I pretty much can for the entire second half of this decade.
4. Baltimore Orioles
2013 record: 85-77 (Tied for third/fourth place.)
Offseason grade: C+
Dan Duquette's winter strategy of waiting until the market sagged was a good one. I just don't think Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz are enough help to push this team back into the playoffs. I'm happy they're relevant again, and if Bundy and Machado had just managed to stay healthy, they'd be part of the discussion. But they haven't, so they aren't.
5. Toronto Blue Jays
2013 record: 74-88 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: F
I don't understand how the Jays' front office decided to give the 2013 team another crack at it. Your team is full of injury-prone players. That is why they got injured and will likely continue to do so. That rotation just makes me sad. You're really going with Hutchinson, Morrow, AND McGowan? Do you expect them to combine for the starts of one normal pitcher, or...? The lineup makes me happy until I see the red X next to Jose Reyes's name and realize it's already begun again.
Saturday, March 29, 2014
Winning the Winter, part 12
It's going to be a photo finish as I try to get my 2014 MLB prediction series out before my team starts their season this coming Monday. Cool if I skip the under-the-radar transactions and just hit the big difference makers in one winter-abolishing megapost? Cool. Predictions hopefully coming tomorrow.
12/27: Rangers sign OF Shin-Soo Choo, 7 years, $130M. Choo's been a consistently good player with a few very good years mixed in. He draws walks, hits for a little power, and steals the occasional base, although his steal success rate isn't great. That package of skills has twice gotten him some MVP votes, including a 2013 season where he played most of the year out of position in center field but put up a monster .423 OBP. Given the Rangers' losses of Hamilton, Cruz, and others over the past two years, Choo fills a need. At some point the seven years and $18-19M salary will look ridiculous, but there could be a few good years at the beginning of the deal.
1/03: Rays re-sign 1B James Loney,3 years, $21M. Loney rebounded from a disastrous 2012 with a solid 2013, highlighted by a .348 OBP. He's not the traditional slugging first baseman, but few are anymore. I'm surprised the Rays chose to spend their limited resources on Loney's early thirties. That said, it's not a huge contract, and keeping last year's roster together for another run is a pleasant surprise from Tampa Bay. I neither love nor hate the signing, but like everyone else, I do like the Rays.
1/16: Dodgers sign SP Clayton Kershaw to a 7 year, $215M extension. This is what the best pitcher in baseball costs. Now we know. It was a foregone conclusion that the Dodgers were going to go way over the line to keep Kershaw around. I don't have a problem with this one absent context, but I do have a problem with Kershaw, Greinke, Gonzalez, Kemp, Ethier, and Crawford all making massive salaries for the next several years. This core might have a World Series or two in it, but it's also got a future that looks a lot ike the present-day Yankees.
1/22: Yankees sign SP Masahiro Tanaka, 7 years, $155M (plus $20M posting fee). And the Yankees went ahead and bought the Japanese version of Kershaw. Even though his numbers from NPB call to mind a peak Bob Gibson or Pedro Martinez, MLB is a different game and nobody seems to think Tanaka is as good as the last next big thing from Japan, Yu Darvish. Comments from Yankees brass that they expect Tanaka to be "a good number 3 starter" seem realistic, but for that, they gave a contract not that far off from what they gave C.C. Sabathia. 2013 was the first object lesson of paying prime value for a roster full of players past their prime. Tanaka is neither good enough nor Benjamin Button enough to reverse that trend.
2/4: Braves sign OF Jason Heyward to a 2 year, $13.3M extension. Once the Braves got their new stadium deal finalized, they went right to work signing their core. While other guys got four to eight years, they only bought out Heyward's arbitration years. Heyward's always looked like an MVP waiting to happen in my opinion and more years would have been better, but the cost would have been prohibitive and the player isn't without risk. This extension changes very little for the Braves- in two years, they'll probably be letting Heyward leave as a free agent so they can afford everyone else they signed.
2/5: Braves sign 1B Freddie Freeman to an 8 year, $135M extension. Signing a breakout star through age 32? OK, that's fine. Good OBP, possibly great if 2013 wasn't a fluke? Gotta like that. Home run totals in the 20's? Not terrible, as long as he's got help in the lineup. This deal looked astronomical at first glance, but the more I look at it, the more I think there's a chance Freeman's fifth-place MVP showing last year will be the norm for a while. I'll call it fair.
2/7: Diamondbacks sign SP Bronson Arroyo, 2 years, $23.5M. The Diamondbacks are an average team, and they've signed an average pitcher for good-pitcher money. He's also old enough that that durable arm could run out of mid-80's gas at any minute. Either add a couple years to the guarantee and get Matt Garza, or let a young guy have a crack at it. Add this one to the "Kevin Towers is a dope" file.
2/14: Braves sign SP Julio Teheran to a 6 year, $32.4M extension (option for 7th year). Atlanta followed up the Freeman and Heyward signings with a typical contract for a good pre-arb pitcher. Atlanta buys out at least one free agent year on the only one of their major league-proven young arms who won't start this season on the DL. Other than the standard caveats about young pitchers, there's nothing not to like here.
2/16: Phillies sign SP A.J. Burnett, 1 year, $16M. This doesn't change the Phillies' fortunes in any meaningful way, so it's a good place to talk about the qualifying offer system. In hindsight, Pittsburgh lost a draft pick by not tendering the one-year offer to Burnett, but at the time the choice was made, Burnett had said it was either Pittsburgh or retirement. Making the offer would have set the price, and it may have been too rich for the Pirates had he decided to accept. The argument against the current system is that it hurts the market value of good free agents, but let's not forget they had a choice in this. When someone turns down a $14M guarantee, that's the point where I lose sympathy if things don't go their way. The elite free agents aren't even affected by this; it's the Kendrys Moraleses and Nelson Cruzes of the world who lose out because of choices they made. This offseason produced some wacky outcomes- seriously, Stephen Drew is still unsigned?- but the players will learn from it. Teams are already pretty good at picking which players to extend the offer to, and in the 2014-15 winter some one-dimensional slugger is going to look at the contract staring him in the face, think of Kendry Morales, and accept it.
2/16: Braves sign RP Craig Kimbrel to a 4 year, $42M extension. The rule for reliever contracts: Keep it short-term and low AAV. The question: Is Kimbrel the exception to the rule? He's the best reliever in the game by a wide margin. WAR says he provides as much value as an above-average starting pitcher despite throwing a third of the innings. The contract only takes him through his age 29 season. The back of his baseball card is a total anomaly, one that likely would have broken the arbitration pay scale. That means the Braves saved at least a little money, assuming no major drop in production. So right now, yes, he appears to be worth it. For me, it's just hard to accept that an organization as well-run as the Braves gave out this contract. It's harder still to accept that it might have been the right move. The baseball world has learned from the B.J. Ryans and Jonathan Papelbons of the world over the past decade. It's hard to picture right now, but what if Craig Kimbrel's name gets added to that list?
2/19: Orioles sign SP Ubaldo Jimenez, 4 years, $50M. On the subject of qualifying offers, if Ubaldo can get a $50M guarantee even with a draft pick attached, the players are doing just fine. Jimenez has never had good control, but 2013 was a rebound year of sorts thanks to a shiny strikeout rate. Even the modest expectations of the league-average pitcher Jimenez was last year may be out of reach in Baltimore. All those walks don't bode well when you're facing the sick lineups of the AL East. I don't know if Matt Garza or Ervin Santana would have been a whole lot better here, but I know I don't like this fit.
2/19: Reds sign SP Homer Bailey to a 6-year, $105M extension. Unless the Reds are planning on spending a LOT more money, they aren't going to be able to keep their entire rotation together. With Jay Bruce and Joey Votto already eating up a sizable hunk of their upper-middle-class payroll, it's possible that they just won't be able to keep more than one of their top three pitchers. If that's the case, I have no problem in principle with signing Bailey. He's arrived as a good pitcher, and his health issues aren't as recent as Latos's or Cueto's. The problem is the staggering overpay. Bailey's maybe a $12M pitcher, $15M if he keeps improving. In a couple years, three guys will be making as much as the rest of the team combined and only one of them will be a bona fide superstar. I was enjoying the Reds' recent relevance as I root for three things: The White Sox in the AL Central, the Marlins in the NL East, and standings chaos in the other four divisions. Now that Reds relevance looks like it's got one, maybe two years left.
2/20: Braves sign SS Andrelton Simmons to a 7-year, $58M extension. Simmons is already known as the best defensive player in baseball, but let's not ignore his 50 extra-base hits last year, or the fact that his walk total wasn't too far from his strikeout total. If he can improve his offensive production even a little, he could be the best player in the NL before this contract is up. It's a lot of money for a guy with this little service time, but so was the first Evan Longoria contract. I'm calling this one a steal for the Braves, and by far my favorite deal from their late-winter spendphase.
2/23: Yankees sign OF Brett Gardner to a 4-year, $52M extension (beginning in 2015). I guess when you only produce one home-grown player every five years, you best sign him, right? If he plays the outfield and you've already got 3 other expensive, older outfielders, even better. This won't be a mess at all. In terms of value, it's not that bad. Gardner's a pretty good player and he'll get paid like it.
2/24: Orioles sign OF Nelson Cruz, 1 year, $8M. Other than Kendrys Morales, this was the one guy who definitely should have accepted the qualifying offer. The Ballpark at Arlington agreed with Cruz, and his all-or-nothing production became progressively more important to Texas's offense over the years. The Rangers should be fine with their new additions, and Camden Yards should be kind to Cruz. Health is always a question with him, but it's reasonable to expect 20-25 homers in 100 games, give or take. Pretty good value signing.
3/12: Braves sign SP Ervin Santana, 1 year, $14.1M. This was a strictly necessary move after the Braves learned both Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy would miss the entire season with torn ligaments. The Braves needed a good starting pitcher, Santana needed to sign somewhere, the Royals needed their free draft pick. Maybe this is a win for everyone. But still... I don't usually like to bury a team because they start the season with bad injury luck, but two Tommy Johns is a seriously rough way to start off. Neither Santana's presence nor the theoretical young pitching depth makes me think "That's OK, they didn't need those 60 starts from Medlen and Beachy."
12/27: Rangers sign OF Shin-Soo Choo, 7 years, $130M. Choo's been a consistently good player with a few very good years mixed in. He draws walks, hits for a little power, and steals the occasional base, although his steal success rate isn't great. That package of skills has twice gotten him some MVP votes, including a 2013 season where he played most of the year out of position in center field but put up a monster .423 OBP. Given the Rangers' losses of Hamilton, Cruz, and others over the past two years, Choo fills a need. At some point the seven years and $18-19M salary will look ridiculous, but there could be a few good years at the beginning of the deal.
1/03: Rays re-sign 1B James Loney,3 years, $21M. Loney rebounded from a disastrous 2012 with a solid 2013, highlighted by a .348 OBP. He's not the traditional slugging first baseman, but few are anymore. I'm surprised the Rays chose to spend their limited resources on Loney's early thirties. That said, it's not a huge contract, and keeping last year's roster together for another run is a pleasant surprise from Tampa Bay. I neither love nor hate the signing, but like everyone else, I do like the Rays.
1/16: Dodgers sign SP Clayton Kershaw to a 7 year, $215M extension. This is what the best pitcher in baseball costs. Now we know. It was a foregone conclusion that the Dodgers were going to go way over the line to keep Kershaw around. I don't have a problem with this one absent context, but I do have a problem with Kershaw, Greinke, Gonzalez, Kemp, Ethier, and Crawford all making massive salaries for the next several years. This core might have a World Series or two in it, but it's also got a future that looks a lot ike the present-day Yankees.
1/22: Yankees sign SP Masahiro Tanaka, 7 years, $155M (plus $20M posting fee). And the Yankees went ahead and bought the Japanese version of Kershaw. Even though his numbers from NPB call to mind a peak Bob Gibson or Pedro Martinez, MLB is a different game and nobody seems to think Tanaka is as good as the last next big thing from Japan, Yu Darvish. Comments from Yankees brass that they expect Tanaka to be "a good number 3 starter" seem realistic, but for that, they gave a contract not that far off from what they gave C.C. Sabathia. 2013 was the first object lesson of paying prime value for a roster full of players past their prime. Tanaka is neither good enough nor Benjamin Button enough to reverse that trend.
2/4: Braves sign OF Jason Heyward to a 2 year, $13.3M extension. Once the Braves got their new stadium deal finalized, they went right to work signing their core. While other guys got four to eight years, they only bought out Heyward's arbitration years. Heyward's always looked like an MVP waiting to happen in my opinion and more years would have been better, but the cost would have been prohibitive and the player isn't without risk. This extension changes very little for the Braves- in two years, they'll probably be letting Heyward leave as a free agent so they can afford everyone else they signed.
2/5: Braves sign 1B Freddie Freeman to an 8 year, $135M extension. Signing a breakout star through age 32? OK, that's fine. Good OBP, possibly great if 2013 wasn't a fluke? Gotta like that. Home run totals in the 20's? Not terrible, as long as he's got help in the lineup. This deal looked astronomical at first glance, but the more I look at it, the more I think there's a chance Freeman's fifth-place MVP showing last year will be the norm for a while. I'll call it fair.
2/7: Diamondbacks sign SP Bronson Arroyo, 2 years, $23.5M. The Diamondbacks are an average team, and they've signed an average pitcher for good-pitcher money. He's also old enough that that durable arm could run out of mid-80's gas at any minute. Either add a couple years to the guarantee and get Matt Garza, or let a young guy have a crack at it. Add this one to the "Kevin Towers is a dope" file.
2/14: Braves sign SP Julio Teheran to a 6 year, $32.4M extension (option for 7th year). Atlanta followed up the Freeman and Heyward signings with a typical contract for a good pre-arb pitcher. Atlanta buys out at least one free agent year on the only one of their major league-proven young arms who won't start this season on the DL. Other than the standard caveats about young pitchers, there's nothing not to like here.
2/16: Phillies sign SP A.J. Burnett, 1 year, $16M. This doesn't change the Phillies' fortunes in any meaningful way, so it's a good place to talk about the qualifying offer system. In hindsight, Pittsburgh lost a draft pick by not tendering the one-year offer to Burnett, but at the time the choice was made, Burnett had said it was either Pittsburgh or retirement. Making the offer would have set the price, and it may have been too rich for the Pirates had he decided to accept. The argument against the current system is that it hurts the market value of good free agents, but let's not forget they had a choice in this. When someone turns down a $14M guarantee, that's the point where I lose sympathy if things don't go their way. The elite free agents aren't even affected by this; it's the Kendrys Moraleses and Nelson Cruzes of the world who lose out because of choices they made. This offseason produced some wacky outcomes- seriously, Stephen Drew is still unsigned?- but the players will learn from it. Teams are already pretty good at picking which players to extend the offer to, and in the 2014-15 winter some one-dimensional slugger is going to look at the contract staring him in the face, think of Kendry Morales, and accept it.
2/16: Braves sign RP Craig Kimbrel to a 4 year, $42M extension. The rule for reliever contracts: Keep it short-term and low AAV. The question: Is Kimbrel the exception to the rule? He's the best reliever in the game by a wide margin. WAR says he provides as much value as an above-average starting pitcher despite throwing a third of the innings. The contract only takes him through his age 29 season. The back of his baseball card is a total anomaly, one that likely would have broken the arbitration pay scale. That means the Braves saved at least a little money, assuming no major drop in production. So right now, yes, he appears to be worth it. For me, it's just hard to accept that an organization as well-run as the Braves gave out this contract. It's harder still to accept that it might have been the right move. The baseball world has learned from the B.J. Ryans and Jonathan Papelbons of the world over the past decade. It's hard to picture right now, but what if Craig Kimbrel's name gets added to that list?
2/19: Orioles sign SP Ubaldo Jimenez, 4 years, $50M. On the subject of qualifying offers, if Ubaldo can get a $50M guarantee even with a draft pick attached, the players are doing just fine. Jimenez has never had good control, but 2013 was a rebound year of sorts thanks to a shiny strikeout rate. Even the modest expectations of the league-average pitcher Jimenez was last year may be out of reach in Baltimore. All those walks don't bode well when you're facing the sick lineups of the AL East. I don't know if Matt Garza or Ervin Santana would have been a whole lot better here, but I know I don't like this fit.
2/19: Reds sign SP Homer Bailey to a 6-year, $105M extension. Unless the Reds are planning on spending a LOT more money, they aren't going to be able to keep their entire rotation together. With Jay Bruce and Joey Votto already eating up a sizable hunk of their upper-middle-class payroll, it's possible that they just won't be able to keep more than one of their top three pitchers. If that's the case, I have no problem in principle with signing Bailey. He's arrived as a good pitcher, and his health issues aren't as recent as Latos's or Cueto's. The problem is the staggering overpay. Bailey's maybe a $12M pitcher, $15M if he keeps improving. In a couple years, three guys will be making as much as the rest of the team combined and only one of them will be a bona fide superstar. I was enjoying the Reds' recent relevance as I root for three things: The White Sox in the AL Central, the Marlins in the NL East, and standings chaos in the other four divisions. Now that Reds relevance looks like it's got one, maybe two years left.
2/20: Braves sign SS Andrelton Simmons to a 7-year, $58M extension. Simmons is already known as the best defensive player in baseball, but let's not ignore his 50 extra-base hits last year, or the fact that his walk total wasn't too far from his strikeout total. If he can improve his offensive production even a little, he could be the best player in the NL before this contract is up. It's a lot of money for a guy with this little service time, but so was the first Evan Longoria contract. I'm calling this one a steal for the Braves, and by far my favorite deal from their late-winter spendphase.
2/23: Yankees sign OF Brett Gardner to a 4-year, $52M extension (beginning in 2015). I guess when you only produce one home-grown player every five years, you best sign him, right? If he plays the outfield and you've already got 3 other expensive, older outfielders, even better. This won't be a mess at all. In terms of value, it's not that bad. Gardner's a pretty good player and he'll get paid like it.
2/24: Orioles sign OF Nelson Cruz, 1 year, $8M. Other than Kendrys Morales, this was the one guy who definitely should have accepted the qualifying offer. The Ballpark at Arlington agreed with Cruz, and his all-or-nothing production became progressively more important to Texas's offense over the years. The Rangers should be fine with their new additions, and Camden Yards should be kind to Cruz. Health is always a question with him, but it's reasonable to expect 20-25 homers in 100 games, give or take. Pretty good value signing.
3/12: Braves sign SP Ervin Santana, 1 year, $14.1M. This was a strictly necessary move after the Braves learned both Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy would miss the entire season with torn ligaments. The Braves needed a good starting pitcher, Santana needed to sign somewhere, the Royals needed their free draft pick. Maybe this is a win for everyone. But still... I don't usually like to bury a team because they start the season with bad injury luck, but two Tommy Johns is a seriously rough way to start off. Neither Santana's presence nor the theoretical young pitching depth makes me think "That's OK, they didn't need those 60 starts from Medlen and Beachy."
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Winning the Winter, part 11
In the interest of getting this done before Opening Day, here's another lightning round of MLB transactions. I'm going to try to pick up the pace on this so I can use it in my 2014 prediction series.
12/18: Marlins sign IF Casey McGehee. The third baseman put up big numbers in NPB (Japanese pro ball) last year, and does have a couple of quality seasons with Milwaukee on his resume. He's not going to win any MVP awards and he may not even win the starting 3B job, but there's nothing wrong with a cheap depth signing.
12/18: Indians trade OF Drew Stubbs to Rockies for RP Josh Outman. It's addition by subtraction in Cleveland. Stubbs would only take AB's away from David Murphy or Michael Bourne, and Colorado always needs spare outfielders for when Carlos Gonzalez gets hurt. Slight edge to Cleveland for getting a usable lefty reliever in Outman and saving a couple million bucks.
12/18: Royals trade OF David Lough to Orioles for IF Danny Valencia. Lough's defensive numbers were eye-popping, off-the-charts, nobody-is-really-this-good in 2013. He's likely to regress and it might be a stretch to expect him to be an everyday player. Valencia showed some power in limited action last year and seems like a good fit as Mike Moustakas's backup/platoon partner in KC. Assuming Valencia is used properly, this should be a win for the Royals.
12/19: Yankees sign OF Carlos Beltran, 3 years, $45M. The Yankees kind of played the "sign everybody" game this winter, and as a result of the additions of Ellsbury and Beltran, Ichiro is going to be an expensive bench player most of the time. They're paying for Beltran's late 30s and the wheels could come off at any moment, but these are the kinds of risks Brian Cashman has to take since he's failed to build a farm system. Beltran's offense hasn't aged yet, so I'm an optimist, at least for this year. He'd be a lot more useful if he could throw 200 innings of 3.50 ERA ball, though.
12/20: Diamonbacks re-sign IF Eric Chavez, 1 year, $3.5M. Who knew Eric Chavez would still be a useful Major Leaguer in 2013? He doesn't walk or hit homers as much as he used to, but he puts the ball in play more and amazingly put up OPS+'s in 2012-13 that rival his peak years. For all the blunders I think Kevin Towers has made this winter, this signing is better than sneaky-good. It's covertly awesome. I really don't understand how the Yankees didn't step in and snag him; he's a perfect player for their needs.
12/24: Dodgers sign RP Chris Perez, 1 year, $2.3M. I'd really like to be in the Dodgers' bullpen this year, just to see what kind of conversations Perez would have with Brian Wilson. They're either going to attempt to murder each other or become BFFs and invent a secret twin language, and that's before you factor in California's marijuana availability advantage over Cleveland (That is a stat on which Baseball-Reference needs to get busy immediately.) The signing is low-risk and high-reward, but there's no way to read anything into Perez's numbers thus far in his career. He could have a 1 ERA or he could throw batting practice.
12/25: Dodgers sign IF Juan Uribe, 2 years, $15M. Uribe's first two seasons in LA were worse than worthless at the plate, but he had arguably his best year at age 33 in 2013. While he might be barely worth this contract, he might be unplayable instead. An all-in team like the Dodgers should probably aim a little higher than this.
12/18: Marlins sign IF Casey McGehee. The third baseman put up big numbers in NPB (Japanese pro ball) last year, and does have a couple of quality seasons with Milwaukee on his resume. He's not going to win any MVP awards and he may not even win the starting 3B job, but there's nothing wrong with a cheap depth signing.
12/18: Indians trade OF Drew Stubbs to Rockies for RP Josh Outman. It's addition by subtraction in Cleveland. Stubbs would only take AB's away from David Murphy or Michael Bourne, and Colorado always needs spare outfielders for when Carlos Gonzalez gets hurt. Slight edge to Cleveland for getting a usable lefty reliever in Outman and saving a couple million bucks.
12/18: Royals trade OF David Lough to Orioles for IF Danny Valencia. Lough's defensive numbers were eye-popping, off-the-charts, nobody-is-really-this-good in 2013. He's likely to regress and it might be a stretch to expect him to be an everyday player. Valencia showed some power in limited action last year and seems like a good fit as Mike Moustakas's backup/platoon partner in KC. Assuming Valencia is used properly, this should be a win for the Royals.
12/19: Yankees sign OF Carlos Beltran, 3 years, $45M. The Yankees kind of played the "sign everybody" game this winter, and as a result of the additions of Ellsbury and Beltran, Ichiro is going to be an expensive bench player most of the time. They're paying for Beltran's late 30s and the wheels could come off at any moment, but these are the kinds of risks Brian Cashman has to take since he's failed to build a farm system. Beltran's offense hasn't aged yet, so I'm an optimist, at least for this year. He'd be a lot more useful if he could throw 200 innings of 3.50 ERA ball, though.
12/20: Diamonbacks re-sign IF Eric Chavez, 1 year, $3.5M. Who knew Eric Chavez would still be a useful Major Leaguer in 2013? He doesn't walk or hit homers as much as he used to, but he puts the ball in play more and amazingly put up OPS+'s in 2012-13 that rival his peak years. For all the blunders I think Kevin Towers has made this winter, this signing is better than sneaky-good. It's covertly awesome. I really don't understand how the Yankees didn't step in and snag him; he's a perfect player for their needs.
12/24: Dodgers sign RP Chris Perez, 1 year, $2.3M. I'd really like to be in the Dodgers' bullpen this year, just to see what kind of conversations Perez would have with Brian Wilson. They're either going to attempt to murder each other or become BFFs and invent a secret twin language, and that's before you factor in California's marijuana availability advantage over Cleveland (That is a stat on which Baseball-Reference needs to get busy immediately.) The signing is low-risk and high-reward, but there's no way to read anything into Perez's numbers thus far in his career. He could have a 1 ERA or he could throw batting practice.
12/25: Dodgers sign IF Juan Uribe, 2 years, $15M. Uribe's first two seasons in LA were worse than worthless at the plate, but he had arguably his best year at age 33 in 2013. While he might be barely worth this contract, he might be unplayable instead. An all-in team like the Dodgers should probably aim a little higher than this.
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
I'm Finding it Harder to be a Gentleman
I guess I've established to myself and the internet that I give at least one shit about the treatment of LGBTQ's. That's cool; it was bound to happen eventually. It just means I have to write about Michael Sam now, even though it feels like an obligation instead of an opportunity for self-improvement.
I had the misfortune of reading the comment thread on ESPN.com's story about Michael Sam's coming out. This was a mistake. The scariest thing is that you need a Facebook account to comment there, and there were many people who didn't see a problem with being vocally homophobic UNDER THEIR OWN NAME. This falls under the same "common sense" category as Christina Kahrl's column from the Dr. V. uproar, but some people just don't get it. And what I say won't convince them. But I still have some thoughts, gained through no authority other than trying to be a decent human being.
-Part of this is publicity-based. Michael Sam knows exactly what he's doing and name recognition is a part of that. My own opinion is that the positives of fame and trailblazing were probably very difficult for him to see, and to him, it was a choice between several bad options. He chose the immediate pain of being a minority of one over the gradual suffering of a closeted life. Given the same opportunity, I would probably make the same choice. Soon he'll be used to his status as a public figure, and there's a chance his appearances will change public perception of homosexuals. That would be a good thing. If his fame bothers you, then be one of the people who shrugs and says "Whatever. I'ma go play Battletoads." whenever someone comes out. If your response is "I don't care, but grrrr I'm still pissed he's getting publicity out of this", you're doing it wrong. Of course the first openly gay NFL player is going to be a big deal. People care. Let's all of us- you, me, Michael Sam, Skip Bayless, Glenn Beck, Jesus over there- rip this band-aid off already. I'm grateful it's happening now, so next time it happens we can all shrug and go play Battletoads.
-I wonder if the inherent homophobia in the NFL community is overstated. I know most of the players are black, and the black community is not as accepting of homosexuality as American society as a whole. Niners CB Chris Culliver made headlines before last year's Super Bowl by saying "Can't be with that sweet stuff, man... Can't be in the locker room, man, nah." But these guys are all gen-X or later, and the world they grew up in made it a point to accept people as they are. I hope the majority of NFL players would react more like baseball's Tom Glavine and Preston Wilson. When asked if they would ever play with a gay teammate, both answered "I probably already have". Veteran reliever Mike Timlin said he had done so knowingly, and it wasn't a problem. Maybe NFLers will transcend the narcissistic "Ewww, he's gonna be checkin' out my junk in the shower" attitude. Maybe not. We'll find out soon enough.
-This is something I'm amazed I have to say, but apparently I do: If your opinion is based in ignorance rather than understanding and you take pride in said ignorance, nobody owes your opinion any respect. You get no cookies for being protective of your lack of understanding. It is not valid as an appeal to emotion nor as a rational argument. Take it somewhere else, preferably off my goddamn internet. If you were worthy of my attention, you would sicken me. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, and free speech even covers most instances of what would objectively be called "hate speech". However, it has its limits. You are not protected from the reactions of others when you say something particularly offensive or ignorant. People's impression of you is conditional on what you say. If you are vocally ignorant, being told as much should be par for the course and is not persecution.
-The following is considered middle ground in some circles, but it's as insidious as outright bigotry: "I don't have a problem with people being gay. I just think it's wrong." If you say something like that, you're a liar. You do have a problem with people being gay. Let's try it with a couple words changed and see how it sounds. "I don't have a problem with black people. I just think their existence is wrong." "I don't have a problem with women. I just think it's wrong to be a woman." Seriously, it reeks of "Homosexuality is a choice". Nobody chose their orientation any more than I chose to be born with a penis or Trayvon Martin chose to be born black. And if you say you remember the day you "chose" to be straight- as some luminaries of the ESPN thread did- you intentionally misunderstand the word "choose" and your argument is a false equivalency. I do believe people can have "awakenings", but that is not exactly a choice. It is living life one way, in the darkness of ignorance, because it's what you think you're supposed to do. Then one day you change and start living your life another way because you realize it feels fucking phenomenal and takes you to places your old life never could. It doesn't mean you chose to be the new way. It means you never fully knew or accepted yourself, and once you did, there was no turning back. I believe we can choose what we do, and we can choose how we express our feelings, but there's no controlling what we feel. The best we can do is act on our emotions in a way that helps, heals, and does no harm.
-This goes back to what I said about Dr. V. Being born with your appropriate physiology and a socially acceptable set of sexual preferences to grow into is a privilege, probably the easiest of all privileges to take for granted. I try to empathize with people who can't fathom homosexual feelings, but they make it very difficult by refusing to accept that some people don't have heterosexual feelings. Homosexuality and gender dysphoria don't come from childhood abuse or inappropriate exposure to sex as a child. They aren't diseases or defects or repercussions of trauma. They're things that just exist. I'm a believer in the genetics argument myself, and the science is pretty clear that nurture cannot undo what nature has done. But shit, if science swayed these people, this wouldn't be a discussion we'd need to have, because then Leviticus would just be a bad story instead of a central tenet of American Christianity. Besides, the focus on that one verse is really unique to American Evangelicalism (I think). There's all sorts of batshit rules and regulations in the Old Testament, but as is their wont, thumpers pick the one that doesn't affect them personally and enforce the crap out of it like Jihadists. Maybe it's just my status as an outsider of the church, but the whole thing seems completely out of step with stuff like "love thy neighbor" and all the other awesome stuff Jesus said. Maybe that's the point.
tl;dr: Mizzou DE projected to be drafted in the 3rd or 4th round.
I had the misfortune of reading the comment thread on ESPN.com's story about Michael Sam's coming out. This was a mistake. The scariest thing is that you need a Facebook account to comment there, and there were many people who didn't see a problem with being vocally homophobic UNDER THEIR OWN NAME. This falls under the same "common sense" category as Christina Kahrl's column from the Dr. V. uproar, but some people just don't get it. And what I say won't convince them. But I still have some thoughts, gained through no authority other than trying to be a decent human being.
-Part of this is publicity-based. Michael Sam knows exactly what he's doing and name recognition is a part of that. My own opinion is that the positives of fame and trailblazing were probably very difficult for him to see, and to him, it was a choice between several bad options. He chose the immediate pain of being a minority of one over the gradual suffering of a closeted life. Given the same opportunity, I would probably make the same choice. Soon he'll be used to his status as a public figure, and there's a chance his appearances will change public perception of homosexuals. That would be a good thing. If his fame bothers you, then be one of the people who shrugs and says "Whatever. I'ma go play Battletoads." whenever someone comes out. If your response is "I don't care, but grrrr I'm still pissed he's getting publicity out of this", you're doing it wrong. Of course the first openly gay NFL player is going to be a big deal. People care. Let's all of us- you, me, Michael Sam, Skip Bayless, Glenn Beck, Jesus over there- rip this band-aid off already. I'm grateful it's happening now, so next time it happens we can all shrug and go play Battletoads.
-I wonder if the inherent homophobia in the NFL community is overstated. I know most of the players are black, and the black community is not as accepting of homosexuality as American society as a whole. Niners CB Chris Culliver made headlines before last year's Super Bowl by saying "Can't be with that sweet stuff, man... Can't be in the locker room, man, nah." But these guys are all gen-X or later, and the world they grew up in made it a point to accept people as they are. I hope the majority of NFL players would react more like baseball's Tom Glavine and Preston Wilson. When asked if they would ever play with a gay teammate, both answered "I probably already have". Veteran reliever Mike Timlin said he had done so knowingly, and it wasn't a problem. Maybe NFLers will transcend the narcissistic "Ewww, he's gonna be checkin' out my junk in the shower" attitude. Maybe not. We'll find out soon enough.
-This is something I'm amazed I have to say, but apparently I do: If your opinion is based in ignorance rather than understanding and you take pride in said ignorance, nobody owes your opinion any respect. You get no cookies for being protective of your lack of understanding. It is not valid as an appeal to emotion nor as a rational argument. Take it somewhere else, preferably off my goddamn internet. If you were worthy of my attention, you would sicken me. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, and free speech even covers most instances of what would objectively be called "hate speech". However, it has its limits. You are not protected from the reactions of others when you say something particularly offensive or ignorant. People's impression of you is conditional on what you say. If you are vocally ignorant, being told as much should be par for the course and is not persecution.
-The following is considered middle ground in some circles, but it's as insidious as outright bigotry: "I don't have a problem with people being gay. I just think it's wrong." If you say something like that, you're a liar. You do have a problem with people being gay. Let's try it with a couple words changed and see how it sounds. "I don't have a problem with black people. I just think their existence is wrong." "I don't have a problem with women. I just think it's wrong to be a woman." Seriously, it reeks of "Homosexuality is a choice". Nobody chose their orientation any more than I chose to be born with a penis or Trayvon Martin chose to be born black. And if you say you remember the day you "chose" to be straight- as some luminaries of the ESPN thread did- you intentionally misunderstand the word "choose" and your argument is a false equivalency. I do believe people can have "awakenings", but that is not exactly a choice. It is living life one way, in the darkness of ignorance, because it's what you think you're supposed to do. Then one day you change and start living your life another way because you realize it feels fucking phenomenal and takes you to places your old life never could. It doesn't mean you chose to be the new way. It means you never fully knew or accepted yourself, and once you did, there was no turning back. I believe we can choose what we do, and we can choose how we express our feelings, but there's no controlling what we feel. The best we can do is act on our emotions in a way that helps, heals, and does no harm.
-This goes back to what I said about Dr. V. Being born with your appropriate physiology and a socially acceptable set of sexual preferences to grow into is a privilege, probably the easiest of all privileges to take for granted. I try to empathize with people who can't fathom homosexual feelings, but they make it very difficult by refusing to accept that some people don't have heterosexual feelings. Homosexuality and gender dysphoria don't come from childhood abuse or inappropriate exposure to sex as a child. They aren't diseases or defects or repercussions of trauma. They're things that just exist. I'm a believer in the genetics argument myself, and the science is pretty clear that nurture cannot undo what nature has done. But shit, if science swayed these people, this wouldn't be a discussion we'd need to have, because then Leviticus would just be a bad story instead of a central tenet of American Christianity. Besides, the focus on that one verse is really unique to American Evangelicalism (I think). There's all sorts of batshit rules and regulations in the Old Testament, but as is their wont, thumpers pick the one that doesn't affect them personally and enforce the crap out of it like Jihadists. Maybe it's just my status as an outsider of the church, but the whole thing seems completely out of step with stuff like "love thy neighbor" and all the other awesome stuff Jesus said. Maybe that's the point.
tl;dr: Mizzou DE projected to be drafted in the 3rd or 4th round.
Friday, February 7, 2014
I'm Too White to Have the Blues
I miss the 3 years I spent in a Seroquel-induced emotional flatline. Caring sucks. It really does. I mean, I can still drink my face off and while away the hours with cartoons and card games, but I'm not used to doing so while dealing with emotions and other such nonsense. I'm used to being laconic, impassive, occasionally happy-go-lucky. I was of the opinion that the worst had already happened so having hopes, fears, or feelings was pretty much a waste of energy. This too shall pass, all things are fleeting, etc. I was all set to enjoy being alive until the day I died, and I was largely indifferent as to when that day should come. But now I have a new imaginary friend: righteous indignation. It's like a demon that chews on the back of my head all day reminding me that for all the setbacks I've had, most people have it worse. I'm angry and I get to thinking it's for no good reason, but then I remember that there are thousands of good reasons.
Here's one of them. Please do click, read, and watch. And this is up to you and your own viewing preferences, but I would prefer it if you didn't watch the Olympics. I'll admit I'm also angry that they preempt Community and Saturday Night Live, but my lacking in entertainment options is pretty far down the outrage list from a nation that shares my dad's views on LGBTQs getting all the money from hosting an Olympics. My entertainment options are usually pretty close to the top of my priorities list, so I guess this is a big fucking deal to me. Since the big hand slapped me "White Male American", I know I tend to overestimate my own problems and it's easy to forget that my life is pretty damn good compared to people in some other places. Like, being L, G, or B in Russia is horrific. Being T is probably worse, because you know, that's something they can choose and they're all just choosing wrong (If you failed to recognize that as sarcasm, you just lost the Rehabbing the Hoodie home edition. Time to eat the stick).
Maybe I have some big primal-scream type post coming up on this subject. It might be a week, a month, or ten years from now. Something's brewing and I have no idea what it is. I've been feeling the need to write, to stand on my roof and rant at 3 AM, to start fights, ever since the Dr. V. story broke. I have been waiting eagerly- if I were the praying type, I would be praying- for someone to use a gay or effeminate slur in my presence so I could let it all out through violence (I'm not a big guy, but I'm crazy and that's the equivalent of an extra 20 pounds of muscle in a fight. Also, most people aren't prepared for the suckerpunch). But when I sit down to express it I have nothing to say. I'm just pissed. If you are too, good. Let's hang out sometime. And that's all I got for now. Time to go to sleep and have another unnecessarily long and painful stress dream*.
*Last night's was fun. I got to taste the world's best frozen custard, but since I didn't have the $1200 to pay for my serving, I had to work off my debt by helping to make it. The only ingredient was human suffering. That's a lot of suffering when you're working it off at minimum wage. Come to find out, nobody who worked in the factory got paid. Everyone was working off a debt.
Here's one of them. Please do click, read, and watch. And this is up to you and your own viewing preferences, but I would prefer it if you didn't watch the Olympics. I'll admit I'm also angry that they preempt Community and Saturday Night Live, but my lacking in entertainment options is pretty far down the outrage list from a nation that shares my dad's views on LGBTQs getting all the money from hosting an Olympics. My entertainment options are usually pretty close to the top of my priorities list, so I guess this is a big fucking deal to me. Since the big hand slapped me "White Male American", I know I tend to overestimate my own problems and it's easy to forget that my life is pretty damn good compared to people in some other places. Like, being L, G, or B in Russia is horrific. Being T is probably worse, because you know, that's something they can choose and they're all just choosing wrong (If you failed to recognize that as sarcasm, you just lost the Rehabbing the Hoodie home edition. Time to eat the stick).
Maybe I have some big primal-scream type post coming up on this subject. It might be a week, a month, or ten years from now. Something's brewing and I have no idea what it is. I've been feeling the need to write, to stand on my roof and rant at 3 AM, to start fights, ever since the Dr. V. story broke. I have been waiting eagerly- if I were the praying type, I would be praying- for someone to use a gay or effeminate slur in my presence so I could let it all out through violence (I'm not a big guy, but I'm crazy and that's the equivalent of an extra 20 pounds of muscle in a fight. Also, most people aren't prepared for the suckerpunch). But when I sit down to express it I have nothing to say. I'm just pissed. If you are too, good. Let's hang out sometime. And that's all I got for now. Time to go to sleep and have another unnecessarily long and painful stress dream*.
*Last night's was fun. I got to taste the world's best frozen custard, but since I didn't have the $1200 to pay for my serving, I had to work off my debt by helping to make it. The only ingredient was human suffering. That's a lot of suffering when you're working it off at minimum wage. Come to find out, nobody who worked in the factory got paid. Everyone was working off a debt.
Sunday, February 2, 2014
I Came Here Lookin' For a Fight
Whenever I walk into a room full of Magic players, I can usually pick out two or three people who are just better at the game than I am. I didn't feel that way today. Mostly because it was a sealed-deck prerelease, and I got to watch the guy I feared the most build his deck. After assuring myself that it was not good, I looked at my own card pool and- somehow- managed not to have paroxysms of glee. I didn't have to be a good Magic player to do well with the card pool I opened at the Born of the Gods prerelease, but being good probably didn't hurt. A little-known (and certainly not Standard-dominant) pairing of Gray Merchant of Asphodel and Whip of Erebos came up a few times. Doubling up on my seed-pack rare was pretty cool. I had enough removal that I left a Pharika's Cure and other kill spells on the bench and didn't regret it once. The worst cards in my deck were the Fellhide Minotaurs I played to have something resembling a curve, and those are fine too once you pants 'em up with Cavern Lampad or Eerebos's Emissary and get Whippy. I ended up taking 2nd out of 42 people, walking away with 16 packs and the playmat I've wanted to win for months. And as always, my victory song was playing as we drove away...
2/3 is my birthday, but 2/2 was the day for The Everlasting Dave.
My BNG prerelease Sealed Deck, in full (I'm only putting this on here to show what can happen if you get all the luck when you open your packs. Also, I will be coming back to look at this list before every limited event I play, to see what "doing it right" looks like.):
2 Arbiter of the Ideal
1 Deepwater Hypnotist
1 Flitterstep Eidolon
1 Omenspeaker
1 Siren of the Fanged Coast
1 Vaporkin
1 Divination
1 Griptide
1 Ordeal of Thassa
1 Cavern Lampad
1 Erebos's Emissary
2 Fellhide Minotaur
1 Gray Merchant of Asphodel
1 Mogis's Marauder
1 Tormented Hero
2 Asphyxiate
1 Bile Blight
1 Read the Bones
1 Whip of Erebos
1 Siren of the Silent Song
1 Temple of Mystery
9 Swamp
7 Island
I'm aware that this post will mean nothing to most people. Don't care. I'm happy and it's my blog, so it's going up. If it bothers you, learn to play Magic.
....Super Bowl? What's that?
2/3 is my birthday, but 2/2 was the day for The Everlasting Dave.
My BNG prerelease Sealed Deck, in full (I'm only putting this on here to show what can happen if you get all the luck when you open your packs. Also, I will be coming back to look at this list before every limited event I play, to see what "doing it right" looks like.):
2 Arbiter of the Ideal
1 Deepwater Hypnotist
1 Flitterstep Eidolon
1 Omenspeaker
1 Siren of the Fanged Coast
1 Vaporkin
1 Divination
1 Griptide
1 Ordeal of Thassa
1 Cavern Lampad
1 Erebos's Emissary
2 Fellhide Minotaur
1 Gray Merchant of Asphodel
1 Mogis's Marauder
1 Tormented Hero
2 Asphyxiate
1 Bile Blight
1 Read the Bones
1 Whip of Erebos
1 Siren of the Silent Song
1 Temple of Mystery
9 Swamp
7 Island
I'm aware that this post will mean nothing to most people. Don't care. I'm happy and it's my blog, so it's going up. If it bothers you, learn to play Magic.
....Super Bowl? What's that?
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