While we wait for the 3:00 Standard Daily Event and my next chance to kill people with Anafenza, why not get closer to wrapping up the winter? Here goes.
1/6/15: Angels sign Cuban 3B/OF Roberto Baldoquin to an $8M signing bonus. Steve Adams of MLBTR covered the international signing rules in detail here, but essentially, any amount that goes over the team's allowed spending cap costs double, thanks to league taxes, and prevents the team from spending more than $300K on a player for the next two signing periods. So the Angels spent more like $14M on Baldoquin. He's 20 years old with a good line-drive swing, and low to moderate power potential. If the Angels double down and sign another high-end Cuban prospect before July 2, they could make a dent in their poor farm system rankings (28th on BP). If they don't, then we'll just know when we know.
1/7/15: Padres re-sign RHP Josh Johnson, 1 year, $1M (with incentives for games started up to $6.25M). Johnson was one of baseball's best pitchers in 2009-10 for the Marlins, but that was the only time in his career he's managed to string two healthy seasons together. Now he's 31, coming of Tommy John, and sunk so low the Padres declined their $4M club option for 2015 that they put in the contract for exactly this circumstance. As much as I love to support players who were great for the teams I like, I'd have to be high to expect anything from Johnson anymore. Good thing for the Padres that, even if he does get healthy, he won't be higher than seventh on the depth chart.
1/7/15: Braves sign RHP Jason Grilli, 2 years, $8M. Grilli was once traded from San Francisco to Florida, along with Nate Bump, for Livan Hernandez. That was almost 16 years ago and I assure you it came from my memory, not research. Grilli and Bump were and are cool names. Anyway, he still strikes guys out, and got the job done in Anaheim in the second half last year. But he's also a 38 year old reliever heading to a team that already has the best closer in baseball and doesn't project to have that many leads to protect in 2015. Lose-lose for now, but maybe this is just insurance for if Kimbrel gets traded. That would make a lot of sense.
1/7/15: Braves sign C A.J. Pierzynski, 1 year, $2M. It seems A.J. has lost the only skills he ever had- the offensive ones. This might be his last year in the show, so let me say, directly to A.J., open letter style: thanks for the best strikeout ever.
1/8/15: White Sox sign IF/OH Emilio Bonifacio, 1 year, $4M. He's fast, can play a lot of positions, and heads to a team that needs options at second and third. Cross another item off Rick Hahn's shopping list.
1/10/15: Rays trade IF/OF Ben Zobrist and SS Yunel Escobar to A's for C John Jaso, IF prospect Daniel Robertson, OF prospect Boog Powell, and cash. A's then trade Escobar to Nationals for RHP Tyler Clippard. Oh, that wacky Billy Beane. Spends the whole winter maxing out his team's minor league depth and major league versatility, and then boom, he acquires the posterboy for versatility, Ben Zobrist. As the final stroke of an often chaotic offseason, I have to say, I'm not super whelmed. Don't get me wrong, Oakland got good value on both ends of this deal- trading their top prospect for a year of a shutdown reliever and a year of baseball's secret MVP- but they already had a non-secret MVP in Josh Donaldson before all this nonsense started. This leaves a lineup of Zobrist, Josh Reddick, and Coco Crisp surrounded by a bunch of buy-low players who will have to (re)establish their value for the A's to be any good. For the Rays, Robertson brings back some future value in exchange for their 2015 chances. Maybe it was time, and no team can win forever, but we all believe Andrew Friedman could build a team. We don't know if Matt Silverman can. The Nationals are just moving parts around. The bullpen looks okay- if not dominant- without Clippard, and Escobar is a playable second baseman, which is not something they had on the roster. I guess I'll declare Oakland the winner of this trade. Ben Zobrist's skill set combined with Bob Melvin's lineup alchemy could lead to a season that breaks WAR.
1/11/15: Rays sign SS Asdrubal Cabrera, 1 year, $7.5M. Let's compare Cabrera to the guy he's replacing, Yunel Escobar. They're basically the same at the plate: below league-average, little pop, some walks. Acceptable shortstop profile. Both are worse than average defensively at the position, which is why Escobar is playing second base now and the league's general opinion is that Cabrera should be too. Cabrera is four years younger, and will make $7.5M this year before hitting free agency again whereas Escobar's contract is 2/$13M. It's hard to imagine a pair of transactions that add up so perfectly to treading water. You know, except they don't have BenZo anymore.
1/14/15: Braves trade C/OF Evan Gattis to Astros for RHP prospects Mike Foltynewicz and Andrew Thurman and 3B prospect Rio Ruiz. And Atlanta's quest to field a team without a quality bat continues. Gattis goes from one K-happy lineup in Atlanta to another in Houston, but 20+ homers two years running, while only playing about two thirds of his team's games, cannot be ignored. Make him the DH and run him out there every day, he might put up some gaudy numbers. He won't even be arb eligible until next winter, so he's got the magic combination of power and team control. Foltynewicz is a big name prospect with a bigger fastball, but you never know if a guy with control problems is going to figure it out. On the plus side, he's only 23, already has a full season at Triple-A under his belt, and guys with triple digit heat always get chances. The ceiling is very high. Ruiz will turn 21 this season, and has an advanced approach at the plate. His ceiling is limited by his speed and athleticism, but scouts think he can figure out how to play third base. While I think Atlanta's still had a good offseason altogether, El Oso Blanco is a big get for an Astros team hoping to turn the corner this year- kind of like Wil Myers, but with production instead of potential. Win to the Astros.
1/15/15: Cardinals sign RHP Lance Lynn, 3 years, $22M. The Cardinals buy out all of Lynn's arbitration years without going crazy on AAV. He's coming off a 15-win, sub-3 ERA, 3.7 WAR season, but the peripheral stats looked the same in 2013, when he was worth 1.8 WAR. He's a number 3 starter with health and good, not great, K-rates as his best attributes. That's just about what the Cardinals are paying for. If he can repeat last year's somewhat fluky run prevention, or improve as he moves through his late 20's, then this is a steal.
1/16/15: Pirates sign IF Jung-Ho Kang, 4 years, $11M. The Pirates have a team option for the fifth year at $5.5M, and they paid Kang's KBO team $5M in a posting fee. They're getting the middle and end of Kang's prime, and while opinions vary on how his power will translate at the major league level, even a 15-homer bat that can play an acceptable shortstop is worth considerably more than Pittsburgh is paying. They got him for so little that even if he's a complete bust it won't ruin things for the Pirates, and if his bat plays at the big league level, they got a borderline star. Yet another smart upside play by Neal Huntington and company.
Thursday, February 19, 2015
Friday, February 13, 2015
Winning the Winter 2014-15: Part 8
And we're back! It's amazing how long you can play Magic Online for free when you 3-1 every event. But I'd rather not cut it close with my 2015 baseball predictions, so instead of cracking packs of Khans and Fate Reforged, here's some more transaction reaction. I think I still have one or two more of these to go before we get to the winter wrapup and season preview posts
12/22/14: Giants re-sign RHP Sergio Romo, 2 years, $15M. A weak strand rate and a jump in home run rate left Romo with a worse-than-average ERA for the first time in his career in 2014, but his other numbers were consistent with his previous excellence. I love to mock Brian Sabean for keeping his own players instead of shopping for upgrades, but I don't think you upgrade on Romo in this price range. I like this for the Giants. In a world where Andrew Miller makes $36M, Romo likely had significantly bigger offers to play elsewhere.
12/22/14: Twins extend RHP Phil Hughes, (effectively) 3 years, $42M. The Twins scored one of last winter's biggest bargains when they got Hughes for 3/$24M and he proceeded to post a league-leading K/BB rate and a seventh place Cy Young finish. Now he's basically got a new contract at 5/$58M. Quite a reward for one great year, but if Hughes's improvement is for real the Twins have their first ace since Johan left town. Given his age and the huge drop in walk rate, I'll stay optimistic. If they can just get four more guys to pitch in their rotation, the Twins'll be right back in this thing.
12/23/14: Giants re-sign RHP Jake Peavy, 2 years, $24M. Is this where I get to mock Brian Sabean for keeping his own players? It is? Hooray! Bringing back the same rotation as last year in hopes that Cain will bounce back from injury, Lincecum will be usable, and Hudson and Peavy won't start to show their age takes some brass ones, I'll give Sabean that. And to play devil's advocate, Peavy looked better in his two months in San Francisco than he has since his Cy Young 2007. But still, this can't work out, can it? He's had all of two healthy seasons since that Cy Young and he's turning 34 this year. History does not bode well.
12/23/14: Cubs sign C David Ross, 2 years, $5M. The Cubs already have two starting-caliber catchers, and Ross's pitch framing doesn't make up for his weak bat and questionable other defensive skills. I think the plan was to trade Wellington Castillo, but that hasn't happened yet. As of now, this might just be a case of "Theo Epstein and Jon Lester like the guy". Doesn't seem likely to help the Cubs win games.
12/29/14: Royals sign RHP Edinson Volquez, 2 years, $20M. This is not the James Shields replacement Royals fans were hoping for. The more I look into Volquez, the more this looks like a disaster. So he outperformed his peripherals and looked average for a whole season with Pittsburgh? Doesn't matter. The vaunted Royals defense can't help him if he walks the ballpark, which he's had a career-long tendency to do. Could he get lucky two years in a row and look like a major-league starter, hiding behind Ventura, Duffy, Vargas, and Guthrie? Yeah, I mean, nothing's impossible. But someone from the Kris Medlen/ Brian Flynn/ Joe Blanton tier of KC pitching depth is a good bet to be a better option at a fraction of the cost in 2015. This is something like the fifth Royals move I've written up, and as a group they don't inspire confidence.
12/30/14: Padres trade OF Seth Smith to Mariners for RHP Brandon Maurer. Maurer is not yet arbitration eligible and projects to be a useful bullpen arm. There's a chance the Friars could try him as a starter, but the Mariners didn't get good results with that and there's enough depth in San Diego that they probably don't have to try it. Smith is a quality lefty bat who was out of a job after A.J. Preller's binge on corner outfielders, and he now projects to platoon with Justin Ruggiano in Seattle. Both teams filled a need. Smith will be more valuable in 2015, but Maurer's extra years of team control, along with the teams' current roster compositions, make it look a little better for the Padres.
12/31/14: Phillies trade OF Marlon Byrd and cash to Reds for RHP prospect Ben Lively. As with Jimmy Rollins, Ruben Amaro managed to trade an old player for a prospect with some real value. Great for Philadelphia. As for the Reds, they're in that dead zone between legitimate contention and full-scale rebuild that leads teams to do silly things like trade a prospect for one year of Marlon Byrd. We can't write the Reds off as a wild card possibility this year, but the window is just barely open. One more year of decline from Joey Votto probably means they miss the playoffs, they lose Johnny Cueto to free agency, and they are going to be in really bad shape.
12/31/14: Dodgers sign LHP Brett Anderson, 1 year, $10M. Anderson's been really good, when healthy- which is almost never. I think the Dodgers are basically starting 2015 with four starting pitchers. Juan Nicasio or Joe Weiland (Or Erik Bedard- ugh) are the insurance policies. That's not the kind of depth we've come to expect from Yankees West. If McCarthy and Anderson are healthy all year, then yeah, the Dodgers are still one of the best teams in baseball. But this is a bigger Achilles' heel than they've had in recent years.
1/5/15: Phillies sign RHP Aaron Harang, 1 year, $5M. If you don't have someone around to pitch a game, they don't let you call yourself a major league team. That's the motivation for this signing. Harang is a guy who will pitch in games, and he was surprisingly adequate for the Braves last year at age 36. So he'll fill a rotation slot for the worst team in baseball, and if he isn't completely out of gas, maybe he even fetches some value in a trade this July. Nothing wrong with any of this.
1/5/15: Rockies sign C Nick Hundley, 2 years, $6.25M. We haven't seen enough action out of Colorado to evaluate new GM Jeff Bridich yet, but this looks a lot like a Dan O'Dowd move. Like all Dan O'Dowd moves, it raises more questions than it answers. Do they know Willin Rosario is not a catcher? If so, why don't they have an open spot to keep his bat in the lineup? Also, why did they sign a bad catcher in Hundley to replace him? More likely, they plan to keep Rosario behind the plate. If that's the case, the question becomes what does Hundley bring that Michael McKenry- who has actually shown some offensive ability- doesn't? Makes no sense either way, but the sad thing is that this might be the most significant move Bridich made this winter. Let's hope Tulo and Cargo are healthy for once and maybe this summer we can see some decisive action. Until then, the only thing keeping the Rockies from the "least interesting team" title is their gorgeous uniforms.
12/22/14: Giants re-sign RHP Sergio Romo, 2 years, $15M. A weak strand rate and a jump in home run rate left Romo with a worse-than-average ERA for the first time in his career in 2014, but his other numbers were consistent with his previous excellence. I love to mock Brian Sabean for keeping his own players instead of shopping for upgrades, but I don't think you upgrade on Romo in this price range. I like this for the Giants. In a world where Andrew Miller makes $36M, Romo likely had significantly bigger offers to play elsewhere.
12/22/14: Twins extend RHP Phil Hughes, (effectively) 3 years, $42M. The Twins scored one of last winter's biggest bargains when they got Hughes for 3/$24M and he proceeded to post a league-leading K/BB rate and a seventh place Cy Young finish. Now he's basically got a new contract at 5/$58M. Quite a reward for one great year, but if Hughes's improvement is for real the Twins have their first ace since Johan left town. Given his age and the huge drop in walk rate, I'll stay optimistic. If they can just get four more guys to pitch in their rotation, the Twins'll be right back in this thing.
12/23/14: Giants re-sign RHP Jake Peavy, 2 years, $24M. Is this where I get to mock Brian Sabean for keeping his own players? It is? Hooray! Bringing back the same rotation as last year in hopes that Cain will bounce back from injury, Lincecum will be usable, and Hudson and Peavy won't start to show their age takes some brass ones, I'll give Sabean that. And to play devil's advocate, Peavy looked better in his two months in San Francisco than he has since his Cy Young 2007. But still, this can't work out, can it? He's had all of two healthy seasons since that Cy Young and he's turning 34 this year. History does not bode well.
12/23/14: Cubs sign C David Ross, 2 years, $5M. The Cubs already have two starting-caliber catchers, and Ross's pitch framing doesn't make up for his weak bat and questionable other defensive skills. I think the plan was to trade Wellington Castillo, but that hasn't happened yet. As of now, this might just be a case of "Theo Epstein and Jon Lester like the guy". Doesn't seem likely to help the Cubs win games.
12/29/14: Royals sign RHP Edinson Volquez, 2 years, $20M. This is not the James Shields replacement Royals fans were hoping for. The more I look into Volquez, the more this looks like a disaster. So he outperformed his peripherals and looked average for a whole season with Pittsburgh? Doesn't matter. The vaunted Royals defense can't help him if he walks the ballpark, which he's had a career-long tendency to do. Could he get lucky two years in a row and look like a major-league starter, hiding behind Ventura, Duffy, Vargas, and Guthrie? Yeah, I mean, nothing's impossible. But someone from the Kris Medlen/ Brian Flynn/ Joe Blanton tier of KC pitching depth is a good bet to be a better option at a fraction of the cost in 2015. This is something like the fifth Royals move I've written up, and as a group they don't inspire confidence.
12/30/14: Padres trade OF Seth Smith to Mariners for RHP Brandon Maurer. Maurer is not yet arbitration eligible and projects to be a useful bullpen arm. There's a chance the Friars could try him as a starter, but the Mariners didn't get good results with that and there's enough depth in San Diego that they probably don't have to try it. Smith is a quality lefty bat who was out of a job after A.J. Preller's binge on corner outfielders, and he now projects to platoon with Justin Ruggiano in Seattle. Both teams filled a need. Smith will be more valuable in 2015, but Maurer's extra years of team control, along with the teams' current roster compositions, make it look a little better for the Padres.
12/31/14: Phillies trade OF Marlon Byrd and cash to Reds for RHP prospect Ben Lively. As with Jimmy Rollins, Ruben Amaro managed to trade an old player for a prospect with some real value. Great for Philadelphia. As for the Reds, they're in that dead zone between legitimate contention and full-scale rebuild that leads teams to do silly things like trade a prospect for one year of Marlon Byrd. We can't write the Reds off as a wild card possibility this year, but the window is just barely open. One more year of decline from Joey Votto probably means they miss the playoffs, they lose Johnny Cueto to free agency, and they are going to be in really bad shape.
12/31/14: Dodgers sign LHP Brett Anderson, 1 year, $10M. Anderson's been really good, when healthy- which is almost never. I think the Dodgers are basically starting 2015 with four starting pitchers. Juan Nicasio or Joe Weiland (Or Erik Bedard- ugh) are the insurance policies. That's not the kind of depth we've come to expect from Yankees West. If McCarthy and Anderson are healthy all year, then yeah, the Dodgers are still one of the best teams in baseball. But this is a bigger Achilles' heel than they've had in recent years.
1/5/15: Phillies sign RHP Aaron Harang, 1 year, $5M. If you don't have someone around to pitch a game, they don't let you call yourself a major league team. That's the motivation for this signing. Harang is a guy who will pitch in games, and he was surprisingly adequate for the Braves last year at age 36. So he'll fill a rotation slot for the worst team in baseball, and if he isn't completely out of gas, maybe he even fetches some value in a trade this July. Nothing wrong with any of this.
1/5/15: Rockies sign C Nick Hundley, 2 years, $6.25M. We haven't seen enough action out of Colorado to evaluate new GM Jeff Bridich yet, but this looks a lot like a Dan O'Dowd move. Like all Dan O'Dowd moves, it raises more questions than it answers. Do they know Willin Rosario is not a catcher? If so, why don't they have an open spot to keep his bat in the lineup? Also, why did they sign a bad catcher in Hundley to replace him? More likely, they plan to keep Rosario behind the plate. If that's the case, the question becomes what does Hundley bring that Michael McKenry- who has actually shown some offensive ability- doesn't? Makes no sense either way, but the sad thing is that this might be the most significant move Bridich made this winter. Let's hope Tulo and Cargo are healthy for once and maybe this summer we can see some decisive action. Until then, the only thing keeping the Rockies from the "least interesting team" title is their gorgeous uniforms.
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Winning the Winter 2014-15: Part 7
I've fallen down the Magic Online rabbit hole, but I decided to come up for air today and we're gonna do baseball. Before we get back to transactions, I wanted to put my personal Hall of Fame ballot out. Better late than never, right? I covered my basic position on Hall voting here, and my point of view hasn't changed in the past year. So for the 2015 class, I would have voted for:
1. Barry Bonds. Most dominant offensive player since Babe Ruth. Maybe ever. Covered this adequately last year.
2. Roger Clemens. The best pitcher of the last generation is either Maddux, Clemens, or the next guy.
3. Randy Johnson. All hail Mr. Snappy.
4. Pedro Martinez. 1999 ALDS Game 5. Find it. Watch it. Relive it. You'll never see a better pitcher.
5. Mike Piazza. As I said last year, the catcher list goes Bench, Piazza, Berra, Fisk, Carter. You can shuffle the order any way you want and I won't argue. It's a joke that backne is keeping him out.
6. Craig Biggio. He's got the compiler numbers, plus he was one of the best five players in the game for a five-year period. That's career and peak value. He doesn't pass the sniff test for me the way my #11-13 do, but I can't argue with the facts.
7. Jeff Bagwell. Frank Thomas got in easily last year. Bagwell should get the same treatment as they're pretty much the same player. Maybe Bagwell had backne too.
8. Tim Raines. Second-best leadoff hitter of all time. Played at the same time as the first-best and therefore doesn't get in. Seems fair.
9. Alan Trammel. Probably a lost cause, but basically the same player as Barry Larkin. Like Raines suffers in comparison to Rickey, Trammel will never be Cal Ripken. That means nothing.
10. Mike Mussina. If an active pitcher approaches Mussina's 270 wins, he'll be a shoo-in. Moose was also really good for a really long time at pitching stats that actually matter. And for all the John Smoltz/Curt Schilling postseason mythology, Mussina stepped up his game in 23 playoff appearances, too.
Submitted with apologies to Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, and Edgar Martinez, who were a close 11th, 12th, and 13th. In an unlimited votes world, I would have voted for all of the above plus Gary Sheffield, Mark McGwire, and Larry Walker.
So that's that. On with the chlorophyll- Um, I mean, transaction reaction. This is Winning the Winter Part 7, aka A.J. Preller has lost his gat dang mind, aka the most anyone has ever written about the Padres without getting paid for it. This'll be a long one, because holy crap why did every team announce everything on December 19th.
12/17/14: Padres sign RHP Brandon Morrow, 1 year, $2.5M. A good risk-reward signing. If Morrow gets healthy, the switch to the NL and Petco Park could lead to a big year. Or he provides nothing, and the Padres have to find another guy to be their number 5.
12/17/14: Marlins sign 1B Mike Morse, 2 years, $16M. First base was one of a few positions where the Marlins got no production at all in 2014, so anyone with a pulse would have been an upgrade. The good news is, Morse had a fine year in a different cavernous ballpark in 2014. The bad news: he's going to be 33 when the 2015 season starts and he's always had bad K/BB rates. That's acceptable when you hit .300, something he's only done once in his career. But for that price, you're going to get a flawed player. For all his shortcomings, Morse should add some homers to the middle of the Marlins' lineup, which is what they needed. I think the Marlins did well enough here.
12/18/14: Athletics trade C Derek Norris, RHP Seth Streich, and an international bonus slot to Padres for RHPs Jesse Hahn and R.J. Alvarez. Now that the work-in-progress appears to be coming to an end in Oakland, we have some idea of what Billy Beane was up to here. I still don't get trading Norris, a pre-arb All-Star catcher who will be 26 in 2015, when your fallback options are Stephen Vogt and Josh Phegley. Yes, Oakland needed starting pitching badly and Hahn is a quality arm, but there are more Jesse Hahns in the world than there are Derek Norrises. For San Diego, this is just more selective aggression from A.J. Preller. He's aimed high in so many moves this offseason, and his success rate is kind of amazing. If this is where the Padres catcher shuffle winds up, it's a fine place to be. I don't know if the Padres look like a playoff team yet, but that it's now worth considering is a feat in and of itself.
12/18/14: Royals sign RHP Kris Medlen, 2 years, $8.5M. If Kansas City is to keep things rolling after their great 2014 run, they're going to have to add value from two sources. Improvement from their homegrown core is paramount, but striking gold on low-cost acquisitions like this one is also key. Medlen looked like a budding ace in 2012 and 2013 with the Braves before he was swept up in the Tommy John epidemic (for the second time) before the 2014 season. There's always bust potential in these cases, but I think Medlen's going to turn into an asset for the Royals. He probably won't be ready to make the rotation out of spring training this year, which is fine since he's sixth on the depth chart. Think of it as a depth signing and the Royals start to look like a solid team once again.
12/19/14: Marlins trade RHP Nate Eovaldi, RHP Domingo German, and 1B Garrett Jones to Yankees for IF Martin Prado, RHP David Phelps, and $6M. When the Marlins sell, they sell well. The transaction tree from their 2012-13 fire sale built an entire average team from nothing but Giancarlo and Jose Fernandez. But when they buy, it always looks like they throw in one too many good players. Prado's a worthwhile bat and he plays an acceptable third base, but two years of him vs. three years of Eovaldi seems almost even to me, given that those three years are likely to be Eovaldi's best and Prado won't do anything better than stay the same. Jones and Phelps- whatever, they aren't a big deal. Jones was included as a salary dump and Phelps is the guy you give a spot start to when you have nobody else. So where's the part where the Marlins said "You know what, it's so important we get this deal done, we're going to throw in a kid with a mid-90's fastball and good control."? I like the Yankees' end for that reason, and while I'm still doing my best to be optimistic about this latest episode of "Jeffrey Loria briefly decides he wants to win", I cringe a little every time I see them trade a guy like German. So I've cringed a few times over the past 12 months. Heaney hurt the most because I think that's a trade that makes both the present and the future worse. This is the second worst because it feels like they just tipped the Yankees a prospect for the right to trade with them. Marisnick and Moran I understood- at least I know Cosart is close to worth it- but Moran's one of the guys I think you keep. As with everything the Marlins do, the construction of the 2015 team is highly suspect. Almost like they expect to break it all apart again in ten months.
12/19/14: Marlins trade 3B Casey McGehee to Giants for RHPs Kendry Flores and Luis Castillo. McGehee rode a fluky BABiP to a strong OBP in 2014, and the Marlins got someone to bite after they acquired Prado. The pitchers Miami got aren't making prospect lists but they both look decent enough to me, per K rate. Flores is a 23 year old starter, Castillo two years younger and a reliever. Both pitched in A-ball in 2014. Maybe McGehee is the latest in a long line of mediocre players who Bruce Bochy gets a good year out of, or maybe the Marlins got something for nothing. I think it's the second one.
12/19/14: In a three-way trade, Rays send OF Wil Myers, C Ryan Hanigan, LHP Jose Castillo, and RHP Gerardo Reyes to Padres. Padres send C Rene Rivera, RHP Burch Smith, and 1B Jake Bauers to Rays and RHP Joe Ross and SS Trea Turner to Nationals. Nationals send OF Steven Souza and LHP Travis Ott to Rays. OK, this is a head-exploder, so I'll break it down completely for funsies. Let's look at the Padres' end first because it's got the most names people know. Myers is a former top prospect and a pretty big get for a team that's suddenly in win-now mode. In barely over a season's worth of ABs over two years, Myers has been a slightly above league-average hitter at ages 22 and 23 and people think he's got much more ability than he's showed so far. Hanigan looked like a Rivera replacement, but he got spun to the Red Sox pretty quick so we'll worry about that next. Castillo and Reyes are young lottery ticket types. For this, San Diego gave up Smith, Ross and Turner (three highly-rated prospects), Rene Rivera (an asset both at the plate and behind it, though at 31 his shelf life is limited), and Bauers (a wild card). The Nats turned Souza (a 25-year-old who crushed triple-A pitching last year before scuffling in the bigs) and Ott (a 20-year-old lefty) into Joe Ross and Trea Turner. Whew. OK. Both Turner and Ross have a pretty good chance of being better than either of the guys the Nats gave up. Why the Rays felt the need to involve Washington at all, I don't know. If this was just a 4-for-5 two team deal, it'd be a total crapshoot on which group of young players is going to pan out better. But it looks like Tampa Bay gave up a significant chunk of that future value in exchange for Souza, who I guess will replace Myers and maybe play like crap? I think the Rays lose and the Nats win outright, but it's hard to evaluate San Diego's end yet. Way too many moving parts. I think they did okay, because I think Wil Myers is a real player. Myers' development and the Padres' record in 2015 are going to be the deciders, because if you look at what they gave up in total, it's a significant hit to their farm system. If people refer to this as the Wil Myers trade in five years, it was good for San Diego. But we might be calling it the Trea Turner trade. If we're calling it the Steven Souza trade, I'll laugh pretty hard.
12/19/14: Padres trade C Ryan Hanigan to Red Sox for 3B Will Middlebrooks. Hanigan will be the wise veteran mentor for Christian Vazquez and, soon enough, Blake Swihart. Middlebrooks hasn't managed to capture the magic he showed in a brilliant half-season in 2012, and now he'll have to try to do it in Petco. His prospect pedigree is good, and Hanigan wasn't essential after the Norris deal, so I like this as an upside play for the Padres. If you told me two years ago that Middlebrooks and Myers were both going to be on the Padres in 2015, it would have sounded a lot more impressive than it does now. But it's still kind of impressive.
12/19/14: Dodgers trade OF Matt Kemp, C Tim Federowicz and $32M to Padres for C Yasmani Grandal, RHP Joe Wieland, and RHP Zach Eflin. And this is how a GM announces his presence with authority. Kemp is coming off his first healthy season since 2011's should-have-been-MVP year, and it was an unexpected return to form- good enough to convince the Padres to take on $15M a year for the next five years. That the Dodgers dumped that much money would have been unthinkable as recently as six months ago, especially in a deal with San Diego. That they added three useful pieces in return is just as dumbfounding. Eflin, just 20, profiles as a mid-rotation starter. Wieland is 24, successfully returned from Tommy John in 2014, and is probably next in line as soon as Brandon McCarthy or Brett Anderson get hurt. And Grandal is a 25-year-old catcher with pop. He's not the best defensive backstop- in some ways he might be the worst- but still. 4 years of team control, power, draws walks, can maybe sort of catch, for some definitions of the term. Value. So did the Padres get fleeced? Rationally speaking, it kind of looks that way. But what if Matt Kemp isn't as done as he looked a year ago? What if the Padres just got a legit elite bat that will play at Petco? Not saying that's what happened. Just saying it might be.
12/19/14: Phillies trade SS Jimmy Rollins to Dodgers for RHP Zach Eflin and LHP Tom Windle. So Byrd, Bastardo, and now Rollins are leaving Philly, and Ruben Amaro got a pretty strong return for each. See above for Eflin. Windle is one of countless minor leaguers who could be good starters if they develop a third pitch, and if not, will be perfectly fine relievers. For one year of a 36-year-old shortstop, that's not bad. Rollins still plays an adequate shortstop and still hits like an average big leaguer, so the Dodgers are probably going to be happy with the return this year. And after that, they think Corey Seager will be ready to take over. It's hard to poke holes in the Dodgers' offseason strategy, but I have to say I'm rather impressed with Amaro's work. At this point I wouldn't even be shocked if he finds a way to move Ryan Howard in the next month or two.
12/19/14: Royals sign OF Alex Rios, 1 year, $11M. First of all, he'll always be Alexis Rios to me. Great baseball name. Secondly, he hits for average, runs a lot, and doesn't walk or hit homers, so he's kind of always been a Royal. Keeping in mind that he's 33 and this will be his first year playing half his games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, we shouldn't be surprised if he goes from "just barely average thanks to batting average" to "barely playable". The Royals will sink or swim based on other players, but I don't think is any help.
12/19/14: Braves trade OF Justin Upton and RHP Aaron Northcraft to Padres for LHP Max Fried, IFs Jace Peterson and Dustin Peterson, OF Mallex Smith, and an international bonus pool slot. And we'll wrap this insanely long wall of text with yet another blockbuster. I thought the Braves did well in the Jason Heyward trade, but in its own way this is a better haul for a lesser player. Fried was the Padres' best or second best pitching prospect, but he snapped a ligament in August and that made him available. Now he's the Braves' #3 prospect. Dustin Peterson and Smith both fall somewhere in Atlanta's top 20 as well. Jace Peterson doesn't, but he's a major league-ready second baseman with strong plate discipline. So what did the Padres get? Another outfielder, to go with Kemp and Myers, who shouldn't play center field but can hit like crazy. Apart from perpetually high strikeout totals, Upton does everything you could want. Homers, doubles, walks, passable corner outfield defense. The Padres got a really good player in his prime. As much or more than the Matt Kemp deal, I think this legitimizes the Padres as a team for 2015. And while the Braves kind of look a mess right now, don't forget they still have lots of young and talented starting pitching, half a good lineup, and after trading Upton and Heyward, they even have a farm system. If the Braves suck, it won't be for too long. Is there really a winner here? I think it's the Braves. This is more talent than a team should get for trading one year of anybody.
1. Barry Bonds. Most dominant offensive player since Babe Ruth. Maybe ever. Covered this adequately last year.
2. Roger Clemens. The best pitcher of the last generation is either Maddux, Clemens, or the next guy.
3. Randy Johnson. All hail Mr. Snappy.
4. Pedro Martinez. 1999 ALDS Game 5. Find it. Watch it. Relive it. You'll never see a better pitcher.
5. Mike Piazza. As I said last year, the catcher list goes Bench, Piazza, Berra, Fisk, Carter. You can shuffle the order any way you want and I won't argue. It's a joke that backne is keeping him out.
6. Craig Biggio. He's got the compiler numbers, plus he was one of the best five players in the game for a five-year period. That's career and peak value. He doesn't pass the sniff test for me the way my #11-13 do, but I can't argue with the facts.
7. Jeff Bagwell. Frank Thomas got in easily last year. Bagwell should get the same treatment as they're pretty much the same player. Maybe Bagwell had backne too.
8. Tim Raines. Second-best leadoff hitter of all time. Played at the same time as the first-best and therefore doesn't get in. Seems fair.
9. Alan Trammel. Probably a lost cause, but basically the same player as Barry Larkin. Like Raines suffers in comparison to Rickey, Trammel will never be Cal Ripken. That means nothing.
10. Mike Mussina. If an active pitcher approaches Mussina's 270 wins, he'll be a shoo-in. Moose was also really good for a really long time at pitching stats that actually matter. And for all the John Smoltz/Curt Schilling postseason mythology, Mussina stepped up his game in 23 playoff appearances, too.
Submitted with apologies to Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, and Edgar Martinez, who were a close 11th, 12th, and 13th. In an unlimited votes world, I would have voted for all of the above plus Gary Sheffield, Mark McGwire, and Larry Walker.
So that's that. On with the chlorophyll- Um, I mean, transaction reaction. This is Winning the Winter Part 7, aka A.J. Preller has lost his gat dang mind, aka the most anyone has ever written about the Padres without getting paid for it. This'll be a long one, because holy crap why did every team announce everything on December 19th.
12/17/14: Padres sign RHP Brandon Morrow, 1 year, $2.5M. A good risk-reward signing. If Morrow gets healthy, the switch to the NL and Petco Park could lead to a big year. Or he provides nothing, and the Padres have to find another guy to be their number 5.
12/17/14: Marlins sign 1B Mike Morse, 2 years, $16M. First base was one of a few positions where the Marlins got no production at all in 2014, so anyone with a pulse would have been an upgrade. The good news is, Morse had a fine year in a different cavernous ballpark in 2014. The bad news: he's going to be 33 when the 2015 season starts and he's always had bad K/BB rates. That's acceptable when you hit .300, something he's only done once in his career. But for that price, you're going to get a flawed player. For all his shortcomings, Morse should add some homers to the middle of the Marlins' lineup, which is what they needed. I think the Marlins did well enough here.
12/18/14: Athletics trade C Derek Norris, RHP Seth Streich, and an international bonus slot to Padres for RHPs Jesse Hahn and R.J. Alvarez. Now that the work-in-progress appears to be coming to an end in Oakland, we have some idea of what Billy Beane was up to here. I still don't get trading Norris, a pre-arb All-Star catcher who will be 26 in 2015, when your fallback options are Stephen Vogt and Josh Phegley. Yes, Oakland needed starting pitching badly and Hahn is a quality arm, but there are more Jesse Hahns in the world than there are Derek Norrises. For San Diego, this is just more selective aggression from A.J. Preller. He's aimed high in so many moves this offseason, and his success rate is kind of amazing. If this is where the Padres catcher shuffle winds up, it's a fine place to be. I don't know if the Padres look like a playoff team yet, but that it's now worth considering is a feat in and of itself.
12/18/14: Royals sign RHP Kris Medlen, 2 years, $8.5M. If Kansas City is to keep things rolling after their great 2014 run, they're going to have to add value from two sources. Improvement from their homegrown core is paramount, but striking gold on low-cost acquisitions like this one is also key. Medlen looked like a budding ace in 2012 and 2013 with the Braves before he was swept up in the Tommy John epidemic (for the second time) before the 2014 season. There's always bust potential in these cases, but I think Medlen's going to turn into an asset for the Royals. He probably won't be ready to make the rotation out of spring training this year, which is fine since he's sixth on the depth chart. Think of it as a depth signing and the Royals start to look like a solid team once again.
12/19/14: Marlins trade RHP Nate Eovaldi, RHP Domingo German, and 1B Garrett Jones to Yankees for IF Martin Prado, RHP David Phelps, and $6M. When the Marlins sell, they sell well. The transaction tree from their 2012-13 fire sale built an entire average team from nothing but Giancarlo and Jose Fernandez. But when they buy, it always looks like they throw in one too many good players. Prado's a worthwhile bat and he plays an acceptable third base, but two years of him vs. three years of Eovaldi seems almost even to me, given that those three years are likely to be Eovaldi's best and Prado won't do anything better than stay the same. Jones and Phelps- whatever, they aren't a big deal. Jones was included as a salary dump and Phelps is the guy you give a spot start to when you have nobody else. So where's the part where the Marlins said "You know what, it's so important we get this deal done, we're going to throw in a kid with a mid-90's fastball and good control."? I like the Yankees' end for that reason, and while I'm still doing my best to be optimistic about this latest episode of "Jeffrey Loria briefly decides he wants to win", I cringe a little every time I see them trade a guy like German. So I've cringed a few times over the past 12 months. Heaney hurt the most because I think that's a trade that makes both the present and the future worse. This is the second worst because it feels like they just tipped the Yankees a prospect for the right to trade with them. Marisnick and Moran I understood- at least I know Cosart is close to worth it- but Moran's one of the guys I think you keep. As with everything the Marlins do, the construction of the 2015 team is highly suspect. Almost like they expect to break it all apart again in ten months.
12/19/14: Marlins trade 3B Casey McGehee to Giants for RHPs Kendry Flores and Luis Castillo. McGehee rode a fluky BABiP to a strong OBP in 2014, and the Marlins got someone to bite after they acquired Prado. The pitchers Miami got aren't making prospect lists but they both look decent enough to me, per K rate. Flores is a 23 year old starter, Castillo two years younger and a reliever. Both pitched in A-ball in 2014. Maybe McGehee is the latest in a long line of mediocre players who Bruce Bochy gets a good year out of, or maybe the Marlins got something for nothing. I think it's the second one.
12/19/14: In a three-way trade, Rays send OF Wil Myers, C Ryan Hanigan, LHP Jose Castillo, and RHP Gerardo Reyes to Padres. Padres send C Rene Rivera, RHP Burch Smith, and 1B Jake Bauers to Rays and RHP Joe Ross and SS Trea Turner to Nationals. Nationals send OF Steven Souza and LHP Travis Ott to Rays. OK, this is a head-exploder, so I'll break it down completely for funsies. Let's look at the Padres' end first because it's got the most names people know. Myers is a former top prospect and a pretty big get for a team that's suddenly in win-now mode. In barely over a season's worth of ABs over two years, Myers has been a slightly above league-average hitter at ages 22 and 23 and people think he's got much more ability than he's showed so far. Hanigan looked like a Rivera replacement, but he got spun to the Red Sox pretty quick so we'll worry about that next. Castillo and Reyes are young lottery ticket types. For this, San Diego gave up Smith, Ross and Turner (three highly-rated prospects), Rene Rivera (an asset both at the plate and behind it, though at 31 his shelf life is limited), and Bauers (a wild card). The Nats turned Souza (a 25-year-old who crushed triple-A pitching last year before scuffling in the bigs) and Ott (a 20-year-old lefty) into Joe Ross and Trea Turner. Whew. OK. Both Turner and Ross have a pretty good chance of being better than either of the guys the Nats gave up. Why the Rays felt the need to involve Washington at all, I don't know. If this was just a 4-for-5 two team deal, it'd be a total crapshoot on which group of young players is going to pan out better. But it looks like Tampa Bay gave up a significant chunk of that future value in exchange for Souza, who I guess will replace Myers and maybe play like crap? I think the Rays lose and the Nats win outright, but it's hard to evaluate San Diego's end yet. Way too many moving parts. I think they did okay, because I think Wil Myers is a real player. Myers' development and the Padres' record in 2015 are going to be the deciders, because if you look at what they gave up in total, it's a significant hit to their farm system. If people refer to this as the Wil Myers trade in five years, it was good for San Diego. But we might be calling it the Trea Turner trade. If we're calling it the Steven Souza trade, I'll laugh pretty hard.
12/19/14: Padres trade C Ryan Hanigan to Red Sox for 3B Will Middlebrooks. Hanigan will be the wise veteran mentor for Christian Vazquez and, soon enough, Blake Swihart. Middlebrooks hasn't managed to capture the magic he showed in a brilliant half-season in 2012, and now he'll have to try to do it in Petco. His prospect pedigree is good, and Hanigan wasn't essential after the Norris deal, so I like this as an upside play for the Padres. If you told me two years ago that Middlebrooks and Myers were both going to be on the Padres in 2015, it would have sounded a lot more impressive than it does now. But it's still kind of impressive.
12/19/14: Dodgers trade OF Matt Kemp, C Tim Federowicz and $32M to Padres for C Yasmani Grandal, RHP Joe Wieland, and RHP Zach Eflin. And this is how a GM announces his presence with authority. Kemp is coming off his first healthy season since 2011's should-have-been-MVP year, and it was an unexpected return to form- good enough to convince the Padres to take on $15M a year for the next five years. That the Dodgers dumped that much money would have been unthinkable as recently as six months ago, especially in a deal with San Diego. That they added three useful pieces in return is just as dumbfounding. Eflin, just 20, profiles as a mid-rotation starter. Wieland is 24, successfully returned from Tommy John in 2014, and is probably next in line as soon as Brandon McCarthy or Brett Anderson get hurt. And Grandal is a 25-year-old catcher with pop. He's not the best defensive backstop- in some ways he might be the worst- but still. 4 years of team control, power, draws walks, can maybe sort of catch, for some definitions of the term. Value. So did the Padres get fleeced? Rationally speaking, it kind of looks that way. But what if Matt Kemp isn't as done as he looked a year ago? What if the Padres just got a legit elite bat that will play at Petco? Not saying that's what happened. Just saying it might be.
12/19/14: Phillies trade SS Jimmy Rollins to Dodgers for RHP Zach Eflin and LHP Tom Windle. So Byrd, Bastardo, and now Rollins are leaving Philly, and Ruben Amaro got a pretty strong return for each. See above for Eflin. Windle is one of countless minor leaguers who could be good starters if they develop a third pitch, and if not, will be perfectly fine relievers. For one year of a 36-year-old shortstop, that's not bad. Rollins still plays an adequate shortstop and still hits like an average big leaguer, so the Dodgers are probably going to be happy with the return this year. And after that, they think Corey Seager will be ready to take over. It's hard to poke holes in the Dodgers' offseason strategy, but I have to say I'm rather impressed with Amaro's work. At this point I wouldn't even be shocked if he finds a way to move Ryan Howard in the next month or two.
12/19/14: Royals sign OF Alex Rios, 1 year, $11M. First of all, he'll always be Alexis Rios to me. Great baseball name. Secondly, he hits for average, runs a lot, and doesn't walk or hit homers, so he's kind of always been a Royal. Keeping in mind that he's 33 and this will be his first year playing half his games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, we shouldn't be surprised if he goes from "just barely average thanks to batting average" to "barely playable". The Royals will sink or swim based on other players, but I don't think is any help.
12/19/14: Braves trade OF Justin Upton and RHP Aaron Northcraft to Padres for LHP Max Fried, IFs Jace Peterson and Dustin Peterson, OF Mallex Smith, and an international bonus pool slot. And we'll wrap this insanely long wall of text with yet another blockbuster. I thought the Braves did well in the Jason Heyward trade, but in its own way this is a better haul for a lesser player. Fried was the Padres' best or second best pitching prospect, but he snapped a ligament in August and that made him available. Now he's the Braves' #3 prospect. Dustin Peterson and Smith both fall somewhere in Atlanta's top 20 as well. Jace Peterson doesn't, but he's a major league-ready second baseman with strong plate discipline. So what did the Padres get? Another outfielder, to go with Kemp and Myers, who shouldn't play center field but can hit like crazy. Apart from perpetually high strikeout totals, Upton does everything you could want. Homers, doubles, walks, passable corner outfield defense. The Padres got a really good player in his prime. As much or more than the Matt Kemp deal, I think this legitimizes the Padres as a team for 2015. And while the Braves kind of look a mess right now, don't forget they still have lots of young and talented starting pitching, half a good lineup, and after trading Upton and Heyward, they even have a farm system. If the Braves suck, it won't be for too long. Is there really a winner here? I think it's the Braves. This is more talent than a team should get for trading one year of anybody.
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
The Best Songs of 2014
The albums post gave away plenty of what's coming here, but that's not going to stop me from doing my twentieth annual top ten songs list. In that spirit, let's flash back and show you what my number one song was way back in 1995:
Yes, Blues Traveler fended off challenges from such luminaries as Sponge, Bush, and Silverchair to take the title. Not that this is dated or anything. Since the days of that homemade mixtape, everyone from Jewel to Local H has had their year at the top of my list. Now it's time for The Wonder Years to pass the crown to 2014's champion. Here we go.
10. Counting Crows- John Appleseed's Lament
"Come on Adam, tell me, what the hell is wrong with you?" is probably something Adam Duritz has heard a lot in his life. When he echoes those words from a significant other in this song, it's just part of a self-portrait of a crazy guy who isn't entirely unhappy with being crazy. Ain't no matter where you find the circus. The circus is everywhere.
9. Sons of Bill- Bad Dancer
For me, "Bad Dancer" was the main bright spot on the new album from Virginian band of brothers Sons of Bill. This one track provides 100% of the rock on an otherwise super-mellow country album, but I'm just happy there was one song that reminded me of their unbelievably perfect record, "Sirens", from 2012.
8. Against Me!- Osama Bin Laden as the Crucified Christ
Everything about "Transgender Dysphoria Blues" is ambitious and explicit. This comparison of the treatment of trans folk to the treatment of war criminals ("You're gonna hang like Benito from the Esso rafters") is a standout among standouts. I don't think I totally got it until I was right in front of the stage as Laura sang it at the Aragon Ballroom this year, and then something clicked for me. The emotions and statements this album makes are not fun or easy to process, but I can't stop thinking that they're important. All that aside, it just rocks harder than almost anything I heard this year.
7. The Dollyrots- Love Ya, Love Ya, Love Ya
In some worlds, both the last song and this one are considered punk, but that's pretty much where the similarities end. This is bassist/singer Kelly Ogden and guitarist/singer Luis Cabezas at their shiniest and happiest. The video contains lethal levels of cute, as well as some random attempts to show their edge. It just makes them even more adorable.
6. Roger Clyne & The Peacemakers- Ain't Got the Words
Clever yet honest lyrics? Check. Roger singing like he means it? Check. Solid rock and roll, RCPM style? That's a big check. With the only really special track from "The Independent", one-time "Dave's song of the year" winner Roger Clyne lands in the top ten yet again.
5. The Gaslight Anthem- Dark Places
The Gaslight Anthem is just the latest in a long line of bands that resonate completely with me. The easiest way for a band to impress me is for the singer to sincerely bare his or her soul in song form, and "Dark Places" does exactly that, just as "The Backseat", "The Patient Ferris Wheel", and "Great Expectations" did last year when I became obsessed with their old album "The '59 Sound". 2014's "Get Hurt" delivered more than a few songs that measure up to that standard as singer/songwriter Brian Fallon continues his life's mission of putting too much blood on the page.
4. Against Me!- Black Me Out
As I said in yesterday's post, "Transgender Dysphoria Blues" is essentially an album about pain. Its stunning final track, "Black Me Out" takes all the pain, sorts it out, and puts it where it belongs. The pain of growth, of positive change? Keep it, it's powerful. The pain of decay, brought on by outside sources? It's useless. Let it out and let it be. As an autobiographical piece, this is Laura Jane Grace acknowledging that she's at the center of her own personal maelstrom, but at least she's still standing. As a statement for the fictional pseudo-character of the album, as well as all the amazing people who have died young, are dying young, and will die young because they had the bad luck of being born in the wrong body? It's a eulogy.
3. Local H- Team (Lorde cover)
I've heard Scott Lucas cover dozens of songs in my life. Good ones, bad ones, it doesn't matter. Coming out of him and his drummer, or just him with an acoustic guitar, they all sound incredible. This song is the reason I had to include the word "Almost" in my entry for #8 this year. This song melts faces, takes names, then gives those names to other people. Whose faces it then melts. For much of the year, I had this one holding the top spot. My current working theory is that Scott's from the future, wrote "Team", then gave it to Lourde so he could cover it. Think about it. Who has more right to say "I'm kinda over getting told to throw my hands up in the air": a 44 year old kinda-famous rocker from Zion, IL, or a precocious 18 year old from New Zealand (Or possibly Randy Marsh)? Yeah. I thought so.
2. The Gaslight Anthem- Mama's Boys
I've made a lot of mistakes in my life, but every now and then I'm just the victim of really bad timing. In April, I decided to give up binge drinking. I swore off liquor, stopped keeping beer in the house, and started drinking only when I went out, usually at concerts. So what happens in August? That's right, the greatest cry-in-your-beer song of all time is released as a bonus track on the new Gaslight Anthem album. And I'm never drunk enough to fully appreciate it. Like "Team", this is another one that held the top spot on this list, basically from its release on August 19th through to today. But it's not the winner. It can't be. Not this year.
1. Against Me!- Paralytic States
Yes, Blues Traveler fended off challenges from such luminaries as Sponge, Bush, and Silverchair to take the title. Not that this is dated or anything. Since the days of that homemade mixtape, everyone from Jewel to Local H has had their year at the top of my list. Now it's time for The Wonder Years to pass the crown to 2014's champion. Here we go.
10. Counting Crows- John Appleseed's Lament
"Come on Adam, tell me, what the hell is wrong with you?" is probably something Adam Duritz has heard a lot in his life. When he echoes those words from a significant other in this song, it's just part of a self-portrait of a crazy guy who isn't entirely unhappy with being crazy. Ain't no matter where you find the circus. The circus is everywhere.
9. Sons of Bill- Bad Dancer
For me, "Bad Dancer" was the main bright spot on the new album from Virginian band of brothers Sons of Bill. This one track provides 100% of the rock on an otherwise super-mellow country album, but I'm just happy there was one song that reminded me of their unbelievably perfect record, "Sirens", from 2012.
8. Against Me!- Osama Bin Laden as the Crucified Christ
Everything about "Transgender Dysphoria Blues" is ambitious and explicit. This comparison of the treatment of trans folk to the treatment of war criminals ("You're gonna hang like Benito from the Esso rafters") is a standout among standouts. I don't think I totally got it until I was right in front of the stage as Laura sang it at the Aragon Ballroom this year, and then something clicked for me. The emotions and statements this album makes are not fun or easy to process, but I can't stop thinking that they're important. All that aside, it just rocks harder than almost anything I heard this year.
7. The Dollyrots- Love Ya, Love Ya, Love Ya
In some worlds, both the last song and this one are considered punk, but that's pretty much where the similarities end. This is bassist/singer Kelly Ogden and guitarist/singer Luis Cabezas at their shiniest and happiest. The video contains lethal levels of cute, as well as some random attempts to show their edge. It just makes them even more adorable.
6. Roger Clyne & The Peacemakers- Ain't Got the Words
Clever yet honest lyrics? Check. Roger singing like he means it? Check. Solid rock and roll, RCPM style? That's a big check. With the only really special track from "The Independent", one-time "Dave's song of the year" winner Roger Clyne lands in the top ten yet again.
5. The Gaslight Anthem- Dark Places
The Gaslight Anthem is just the latest in a long line of bands that resonate completely with me. The easiest way for a band to impress me is for the singer to sincerely bare his or her soul in song form, and "Dark Places" does exactly that, just as "The Backseat", "The Patient Ferris Wheel", and "Great Expectations" did last year when I became obsessed with their old album "The '59 Sound". 2014's "Get Hurt" delivered more than a few songs that measure up to that standard as singer/songwriter Brian Fallon continues his life's mission of putting too much blood on the page.
4. Against Me!- Black Me Out
As I said in yesterday's post, "Transgender Dysphoria Blues" is essentially an album about pain. Its stunning final track, "Black Me Out" takes all the pain, sorts it out, and puts it where it belongs. The pain of growth, of positive change? Keep it, it's powerful. The pain of decay, brought on by outside sources? It's useless. Let it out and let it be. As an autobiographical piece, this is Laura Jane Grace acknowledging that she's at the center of her own personal maelstrom, but at least she's still standing. As a statement for the fictional pseudo-character of the album, as well as all the amazing people who have died young, are dying young, and will die young because they had the bad luck of being born in the wrong body? It's a eulogy.
3. Local H- Team (Lorde cover)
I've heard Scott Lucas cover dozens of songs in my life. Good ones, bad ones, it doesn't matter. Coming out of him and his drummer, or just him with an acoustic guitar, they all sound incredible. This song is the reason I had to include the word "Almost" in my entry for #8 this year. This song melts faces, takes names, then gives those names to other people. Whose faces it then melts. For much of the year, I had this one holding the top spot. My current working theory is that Scott's from the future, wrote "Team", then gave it to Lourde so he could cover it. Think about it. Who has more right to say "I'm kinda over getting told to throw my hands up in the air": a 44 year old kinda-famous rocker from Zion, IL, or a precocious 18 year old from New Zealand (Or possibly Randy Marsh)? Yeah. I thought so.
2. The Gaslight Anthem- Mama's Boys
I've made a lot of mistakes in my life, but every now and then I'm just the victim of really bad timing. In April, I decided to give up binge drinking. I swore off liquor, stopped keeping beer in the house, and started drinking only when I went out, usually at concerts. So what happens in August? That's right, the greatest cry-in-your-beer song of all time is released as a bonus track on the new Gaslight Anthem album. And I'm never drunk enough to fully appreciate it. Like "Team", this is another one that held the top spot on this list, basically from its release on August 19th through to today. But it's not the winner. It can't be. Not this year.
1. Against Me!- Paralytic States
We wrap up 2014 in music with the penultimate track of Transgender Dysphoria Blues, the part of the story right before "Black Me Out", the part that puts us in the shoes of that transsexual prostitute on New Year's Eve as she loses her battle with gender dysphoria in a cheap motel room. The song is bone-chillingly terrifying to me, especially the verse that begins "Nighttime at the hotel...". I've listened to this song and every other song on TDB probably a hundred or more times this year, but "Paralytic States" never gets any easier to listen to, never loses any of its impact. I don't think it ever will. Typing those last two sentences convinced me that, with apologies to Local H and The Gaslight Anthem, this was my number one song of the year from the first listen. Nothing else ever really stood a chance.
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
The Albums I Listened To In 2014
It's that time of year again- everyone's got a favorite something of the year, and mine is always music. I'm going to do an albums post today with a top ten songs post (with some bonus songs) soon to follow. I'll be brief and try to avoid words like "soundscapes" and "post-romantic" so as to not want to punch myself in the mouth. And finally, nothing is more subjective than this. I'm embracing that and telling you how I feel about these albums instead of what they sound like. We all have YouTube, after all. 2013 had a handful of good albums and a few great songs, my favorite in both cases coming from The Wonder Years. 2014, everything was kicked up a notch. A big crop of very good albums and one great one, and I still have 2015 to look forward to, with new albums from Idlewild, Local H, Veruca Salt, and Sleater-Kinney. For now, two bands I've just recently fallen for provided more than enough awesome for one year, and they were supported- sometimes ably, sometimes not so much- by a bunch of old favorites.
I. The "Oh, that's too bad" Division
17. Beck- Morning Phase. The goodness of Modern Guilt, Beck's previous album, only serves to make this one more disappointing. Was anyone crying out for 12 versions of the same mopey, sleepy song from a guy who was at one time a genre-hopping avatar of funk?
16. Thom Yorke- Tomorrow's Modern Boxes. I forgot this album existed for long stretches of time. I'm still not sure if Thom Yorke is good at music or not. What I am sure of is that he's gonna milk that Kid A cow until long after we're all dead.
15. Smashing Pumpkins- Monuments to an Elegy. The howling, manic Pumpkins of the mid-90's are no more, and "Monuments" is every bit as tepid and forgettable as 2012's "Oceania". If I graded on a curve this would be dead last, because getting a Pumpkins album without anything remotely aggressive and challenging is worse than getting no Pumpkins album at all.
14. Sons of Bill- Love and Logic. If I could forget that this is the same band that made 2012's "Sirens", maybe I'd be able to enjoy "Love and Logic" for what it is. I can't do that, though. It's not a total miss for me, but I don't like monotonous, sleepy albums and the changes of pace are too infrequent.
II: The "Meets most expectations but exceeds none" Division
13. Jack White- Lazaretto. If Jack puts away the extraneous instruments, weans himself off his vaguely old-timey affectations, and goes back to garage rock, I'll take him back. But referencing White Stripes songs does not a White Stripes album make.
12. Bush- Man on the Run. Bush put out an album in 2014. I listened to it. Maybe even more than once. It's far better than I would have thought a new Bush album would be. Also, The Meat Puppets, Pearl Jam, and Mudhoney put out albums in 2013, so just like in 1995, Bush is late to the grunge party.
11. Roger Clyne & the Peacemakers- The Independent. Apart from the sneering "grown-up Banditos" vibe of the first track, "The Independent" is about as bland and generic as RCPM has ever been. It doesn't even have Roger's trademark borderlands flair, opting instead for predictable mid-range rock with a little bit of country thrown in. It's not fun for me to type this, but it's what I hear.
10. Rancid- Honor is All We Know. This was my most anticipated album of 2014. I really wanted to love it, but it feels a little thrown together, a little like Tim Armstrong wrote the entire album in the same amount of time it takes to listen to it. It's been 11 years since the last Rancid album that sounded inspired and fully committed, which is a bummer. But hey, we'll always have ...And Out Come the Wolves.
9. Mike Doughty- Stellar Motel. Mike Doughty has developed a habit of releasing his albums at their most half-finished. Stellar Motel is equal parts shiny alternapop and baffling, why-was-I-born-with-ears rap. I don't understand Mike Doughty at all, but I don't really care. As long as there's a few gems mixed in with the one man inside jokes, I'm still on board.
III: The "Pleasantly surprising" Division
8. Lagwagon- Hang. In the nine years since the last Lagwagon LP, Joey Cape has apparently crossed over to the dark side and embraced his metalness. Normally I'd grit my teeth and complain about the general lack of punk on "Hang", but there's just something about Cape and gallows humor that works for me. Plus, come on, first full-length Lagwagon in nine years. It could be an exploration of the medium of farts on snare drums and I'd still find a way to defend it. Instead, I get to tell you to listen to "Reign" or "Burning Out In Style", the punkest songs on this metal-ish record, and just rock out.
7. U2- Songs of Innocence. Nobody else seems to have anything nice to say about this, so I'll say something nice. Hey Bono, thanks for giving me free music instead of making me steal it off the internet. Also, you know what, the music you gave away was pretty good. "This Is Where You Can Reach Me" might even be great. "The Miracle (Of Joey Ramone)" and its iTunes commercial might have become grating after the third viewing, but the song in its entirety definitely doesn't suck. But again, even if it did suck, it was free and I could just delete it if I wanted to. So no complaints here about getting more than I paid for.
6. Weezer- Everything Will Be Alright in the End. The theme of this album is "It's fun to be in Weezer making rock music.", and that's fun to listen to. Conscious of its time and place, "Rockin' out like it's '94", delivering Eulogies For Rock Bands, ten tracks of Weezer sounding like Weezer and a brief three-track coda make this album easy to get into and just as easy to put down.
5. Foo Fighters- Sonic Highways. The more I listen to it, the more I think this might be the band's best album to date. It sounds just like every other Foo Fighters album, except there's a commitment and an urgency to each and every song that's impossible to ignore. This is a good rock band trying to make a great album, and they came pretty close. I just wish there was more of it.
IV: The "Oh god yes" Division
4. The Dollyrots- Barefoot and Pregnant
I describe the Dollyrots as "What would happen if Barbie came to life and started a power-pop band". Usually the combination of overly familiar riffs and Kelly Ogden's baby-talk vocals make it so I can't listen to them all the time, but "Barefoot and Pregnant" sees them at the top of their game. Better hooks, better lyrics, great bonus tracks, same sparkly adorableness. I've yet to get sick of it. There's no depth, pain, or catharsis here. Nothing to take seriously or think about very much. Just a pretty pink bubble you can float around in for a while.
3. The Gaslight Anthem- Get Hurt
What I love about Gaslight Anthem is the blood in their music. Singer/lyricist Brian Fallon writes and sings from the heart, and that always comes through. "Get Hurt" isn't the most consistent album, but the lows are no worse than average and the highs are the kind of lyrics that help you make sense of the least sensible parts of life. And you know every line throughout was something he had to open a vein to write.
2. Counting Crows- Somewhere Under Wonderland
Speaking of blood in the music, I've been a sucker for Adam Duritz's charmingly unstable lyrics since I was about twelve, but "Somewhere Under Wonderland" is completely unhinged. He counts in one song with "One. Two. One, two, buckle, dang." He stumbles over rhythms because what he wants to say is just a beat or two too long, and none of it makes a lick of sense. In "Dislocation" he openly rocks out his issues with Dissociative Disorder and even Borderlines like me can totally get it when he says "I don't remember me." It's like having a 40-minute conversation with the nicest, saddest, off-his-medsest homeless man you could ever meet. And even though you find yourself laughing at the most ridiculous parts, you still come away from it knowing the depth of honesty that's always been Duritz's money maker is still there. It might not be as simple as storming through the barrio with Mr. Jones anymore, but hell if he doesn't still mean every word.
1. Against Me!- Transgender Dysphoria Blues
Punk rock, at its heart, is about alienation. Gender Dysphoria is in large part about the same thing- but instead of being alienated from society, your government, your family and friends, or your significant other, you're alienated from your own body. That takes all those other alienations and grows them exponentially. The result of making a punk record on the subject is, in a word, devastating. Laura Jane Grace, the trans woman who fronts the band, does what every great concept album writer does: she uses the real emotions of her real life when telling a semi-autobiographical story. A bottom-rung-of-society transsexual prostitute instead of Laura herself just makes for a more compelling main character, and it's nothing if not compelling. The record seethes and boils with pain, profoundly sad lyrics like "Making yourself up as you go along/ who's gonna take you home tonight?" and "What's the best that you can hope for?/ pity fucks and table scraps" assaulting you into empathy, dropped like bombs in a scorched earth campaign, so constantly and thoroughly you'd think they were throwaway punk rock lines until you pay attention to each one and realize that Grace isn't trying to sell rage to us consumers, she's just trying to let it out. There have been three times in my life when I let a rock album change me as a person. When I was 15, sad, and stupid, I thought Third Eye Blind's debut was the most incredible thing ever, even though- or maybe because- it was just emotional egomania. When I was 23, sad, and stupid, I discovered Alkaline Trio's "From Here to Infirmary" and let it become the soundtrack to years of self-destruction because going down in flames was something to celebrate. I was about to turn 32 when I got Transgender Dysphoria Blues. I was still stupid, and I still am, but just like with the previous two, I feel like I understand my stupidity just a little bit better now and I'm not that sad anymore. We don't learn until it hurts not to learn. TDB makes it hurt. I want everybody on the planet to hear this record.
I. The "Oh, that's too bad" Division
17. Beck- Morning Phase. The goodness of Modern Guilt, Beck's previous album, only serves to make this one more disappointing. Was anyone crying out for 12 versions of the same mopey, sleepy song from a guy who was at one time a genre-hopping avatar of funk?
16. Thom Yorke- Tomorrow's Modern Boxes. I forgot this album existed for long stretches of time. I'm still not sure if Thom Yorke is good at music or not. What I am sure of is that he's gonna milk that Kid A cow until long after we're all dead.
15. Smashing Pumpkins- Monuments to an Elegy. The howling, manic Pumpkins of the mid-90's are no more, and "Monuments" is every bit as tepid and forgettable as 2012's "Oceania". If I graded on a curve this would be dead last, because getting a Pumpkins album without anything remotely aggressive and challenging is worse than getting no Pumpkins album at all.
14. Sons of Bill- Love and Logic. If I could forget that this is the same band that made 2012's "Sirens", maybe I'd be able to enjoy "Love and Logic" for what it is. I can't do that, though. It's not a total miss for me, but I don't like monotonous, sleepy albums and the changes of pace are too infrequent.
II: The "Meets most expectations but exceeds none" Division
13. Jack White- Lazaretto. If Jack puts away the extraneous instruments, weans himself off his vaguely old-timey affectations, and goes back to garage rock, I'll take him back. But referencing White Stripes songs does not a White Stripes album make.
12. Bush- Man on the Run. Bush put out an album in 2014. I listened to it. Maybe even more than once. It's far better than I would have thought a new Bush album would be. Also, The Meat Puppets, Pearl Jam, and Mudhoney put out albums in 2013, so just like in 1995, Bush is late to the grunge party.
11. Roger Clyne & the Peacemakers- The Independent. Apart from the sneering "grown-up Banditos" vibe of the first track, "The Independent" is about as bland and generic as RCPM has ever been. It doesn't even have Roger's trademark borderlands flair, opting instead for predictable mid-range rock with a little bit of country thrown in. It's not fun for me to type this, but it's what I hear.
10. Rancid- Honor is All We Know. This was my most anticipated album of 2014. I really wanted to love it, but it feels a little thrown together, a little like Tim Armstrong wrote the entire album in the same amount of time it takes to listen to it. It's been 11 years since the last Rancid album that sounded inspired and fully committed, which is a bummer. But hey, we'll always have ...And Out Come the Wolves.
9. Mike Doughty- Stellar Motel. Mike Doughty has developed a habit of releasing his albums at their most half-finished. Stellar Motel is equal parts shiny alternapop and baffling, why-was-I-born-with-ears rap. I don't understand Mike Doughty at all, but I don't really care. As long as there's a few gems mixed in with the one man inside jokes, I'm still on board.
III: The "Pleasantly surprising" Division
8. Lagwagon- Hang. In the nine years since the last Lagwagon LP, Joey Cape has apparently crossed over to the dark side and embraced his metalness. Normally I'd grit my teeth and complain about the general lack of punk on "Hang", but there's just something about Cape and gallows humor that works for me. Plus, come on, first full-length Lagwagon in nine years. It could be an exploration of the medium of farts on snare drums and I'd still find a way to defend it. Instead, I get to tell you to listen to "Reign" or "Burning Out In Style", the punkest songs on this metal-ish record, and just rock out.
7. U2- Songs of Innocence. Nobody else seems to have anything nice to say about this, so I'll say something nice. Hey Bono, thanks for giving me free music instead of making me steal it off the internet. Also, you know what, the music you gave away was pretty good. "This Is Where You Can Reach Me" might even be great. "The Miracle (Of Joey Ramone)" and its iTunes commercial might have become grating after the third viewing, but the song in its entirety definitely doesn't suck. But again, even if it did suck, it was free and I could just delete it if I wanted to. So no complaints here about getting more than I paid for.
6. Weezer- Everything Will Be Alright in the End. The theme of this album is "It's fun to be in Weezer making rock music.", and that's fun to listen to. Conscious of its time and place, "Rockin' out like it's '94", delivering Eulogies For Rock Bands, ten tracks of Weezer sounding like Weezer and a brief three-track coda make this album easy to get into and just as easy to put down.
5. Foo Fighters- Sonic Highways. The more I listen to it, the more I think this might be the band's best album to date. It sounds just like every other Foo Fighters album, except there's a commitment and an urgency to each and every song that's impossible to ignore. This is a good rock band trying to make a great album, and they came pretty close. I just wish there was more of it.
IV: The "Oh god yes" Division
4. The Dollyrots- Barefoot and Pregnant
I describe the Dollyrots as "What would happen if Barbie came to life and started a power-pop band". Usually the combination of overly familiar riffs and Kelly Ogden's baby-talk vocals make it so I can't listen to them all the time, but "Barefoot and Pregnant" sees them at the top of their game. Better hooks, better lyrics, great bonus tracks, same sparkly adorableness. I've yet to get sick of it. There's no depth, pain, or catharsis here. Nothing to take seriously or think about very much. Just a pretty pink bubble you can float around in for a while.
3. The Gaslight Anthem- Get Hurt
What I love about Gaslight Anthem is the blood in their music. Singer/lyricist Brian Fallon writes and sings from the heart, and that always comes through. "Get Hurt" isn't the most consistent album, but the lows are no worse than average and the highs are the kind of lyrics that help you make sense of the least sensible parts of life. And you know every line throughout was something he had to open a vein to write.
2. Counting Crows- Somewhere Under Wonderland
Speaking of blood in the music, I've been a sucker for Adam Duritz's charmingly unstable lyrics since I was about twelve, but "Somewhere Under Wonderland" is completely unhinged. He counts in one song with "One. Two. One, two, buckle, dang." He stumbles over rhythms because what he wants to say is just a beat or two too long, and none of it makes a lick of sense. In "Dislocation" he openly rocks out his issues with Dissociative Disorder and even Borderlines like me can totally get it when he says "I don't remember me." It's like having a 40-minute conversation with the nicest, saddest, off-his-medsest homeless man you could ever meet. And even though you find yourself laughing at the most ridiculous parts, you still come away from it knowing the depth of honesty that's always been Duritz's money maker is still there. It might not be as simple as storming through the barrio with Mr. Jones anymore, but hell if he doesn't still mean every word.
1. Against Me!- Transgender Dysphoria Blues
Punk rock, at its heart, is about alienation. Gender Dysphoria is in large part about the same thing- but instead of being alienated from society, your government, your family and friends, or your significant other, you're alienated from your own body. That takes all those other alienations and grows them exponentially. The result of making a punk record on the subject is, in a word, devastating. Laura Jane Grace, the trans woman who fronts the band, does what every great concept album writer does: she uses the real emotions of her real life when telling a semi-autobiographical story. A bottom-rung-of-society transsexual prostitute instead of Laura herself just makes for a more compelling main character, and it's nothing if not compelling. The record seethes and boils with pain, profoundly sad lyrics like "Making yourself up as you go along/ who's gonna take you home tonight?" and "What's the best that you can hope for?/ pity fucks and table scraps" assaulting you into empathy, dropped like bombs in a scorched earth campaign, so constantly and thoroughly you'd think they were throwaway punk rock lines until you pay attention to each one and realize that Grace isn't trying to sell rage to us consumers, she's just trying to let it out. There have been three times in my life when I let a rock album change me as a person. When I was 15, sad, and stupid, I thought Third Eye Blind's debut was the most incredible thing ever, even though- or maybe because- it was just emotional egomania. When I was 23, sad, and stupid, I discovered Alkaline Trio's "From Here to Infirmary" and let it become the soundtrack to years of self-destruction because going down in flames was something to celebrate. I was about to turn 32 when I got Transgender Dysphoria Blues. I was still stupid, and I still am, but just like with the previous two, I feel like I understand my stupidity just a little bit better now and I'm not that sad anymore. We don't learn until it hurts not to learn. TDB makes it hurt. I want everybody on the planet to hear this record.
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Winning the Winter 2014-15: Part 6
The winter meetings are behind us, but crazy stuff keeps happening. Baseball is awesome with Rick Hahn, A.J. Preller, and Billy Beane running the show. But it was fun with Kevin Towers too, and Jack Z and Ruben Amaro are always interesting. Screw it, I just like baseball. In fact, in between Winning the Winter posts I'm going to do Hall of Fame voting again. If you hate Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, get ready for me to say mean things to you. Until then, here's some more stuff that happened.
12/13/14: Twins sign RHP Ervin Santana, 4 years, $55M. The Twins' offense has already arrived, but with their best pitching prospects either floundering or years away, Terry Ryan is doubling down on "sign average free agent starters and hope for the best". While last year's Ricky Nolasco signing is a disaster so far, Ryan did pick a winner in Phil Hughes. I don't think Santana's going to completely collapse, as he at least has some AL adequacy on his resume, but he wasn't much better than average at his peak and he's entering the typical decline years. Santana's the winner because damn that's a lot of money for a number 4 starter. I think the Twins slipped into the title of "least interesting team in baseball" this month, and if Buxton, Sano, and company bust, they might stay there for a while.
12/15/14: Yankees re-sign 3B Chase Headley, 4 years, $52M. Setting aside his fluky MVP-caliber 2012 season, Headley's still been an above-average hitter who plays third base as well as anyone in the league. And with another year separating him from the injuries that marred his 2013, there's a chance- not a huge one, but more than zero- that he's got another ridiculous offensive season in him. At worst, nobody has to worry about Alex Rodriguez playing third base anymore, which is something the Yankees wanted to avoid. They got a good player here, and they didn't even overpay.
12/15/14: Astros sign SS Jed Lowrie, 3 years, $23M. So they haven't signed Scherzer- yet- but Jeff Luhnow did find a position player willing to take Jim Crane's money. Lowrie had a solid half-season in Houston in 2012 in between the injuries, so there's some familiarity there- both with the player, and his frequent visits to the DL. As aberrant as broken fingers and neck strains might look, the biggest predictor of future injuries is past injuries, and Lowrie's got quite a collection. That explains the relatively low annual value on the contract. The past two seasons in Oakland, though, they were pretty good: a well-above-average bat for a shortstop, defense that was playable if not gold glove-worthy, and just one short DL stint. You know what, I talked myself into it. If Lowrie's done putting his fingers places where they get broken, the Astros got themselves a player. They aren't good yet, but they're getting less jokey.
12/16/14: Rays trade OF Matt Joyce to Angels for RHP Kevin Jepsen. Joyce slots into the Angels' corner outfield/DH rotation with Josh Hamilton, C.J. Cron and Kole Calhoun, and whatever power they lose by benching Cron or Calhoun, they make up for in Joyce's reasonably impressive on-base ability. That adds some balance-if not value- to the Angels' otherwise hackerish lineup. The back end of the Rays' bullpen still looked like an area of strength to me, but I guess they wanted one more closer-quality arm in case Jake McGee is out for a while. Right now, they're looking at Stephen Souza, Kevin Kiermaier, and David Dejesus for their own corner outfield/DH slots. I'd rather keep Joyce than run that out there, but maybe I'm underestimating the younger guys, or maybe there's another move coming. Along those lines, this looked a lot better for Tampa Bay before their most recent blockbuster. For now, win to the Angels.
12/16/14: Dodgers sign RHP Brandon McCarthy, 4 years, $48M. I liked reading Dodgers bossman Andrew Friedman's comments on this contract and the Brett Anderson deal. To briefly restate: If there's a guy with an injury history who you think has turned a corner, you'd rather sign him than a guy with a clean health history but recent warning signs. But McCarthy just hasn't been that good, healthy or not. $12M a year is probably about right, but if the choices were McCarthy at this price or Francisco Liriano at his price of 3/$39M, I would take Liriano. And I would take Jason Hammel at 2/$20M over either one. Maybe that half season in New York was the real Brandon McCarthy, in which case the Dodgers just picked the perfect guy to fill out their rotation. But if you're the Dodgers and money isn't a limiting factor, why wouldn't you just give James Shields too many years and too much money?
12/16/14: Royals sign DH Kendrys Morales, 2 years, $17M. Okay, so this is one of those deals that everyone is sure won't work. I'm not. Here's the problems with Morales: he's had a few serious injuries in his career, he sat out the first two months of the 2014 season due to a qualifying offer he should have just accepted and never got things going, and his K/BB ratio is not where you want a middle of the order slugger to be. Here's the good stuff: when he's healthy, he hits for both pretty good average and pretty good power. Um, isn't that exactly what the Royals (and every other team) need out of their DH? I mean, they still could have exercised Billy Butler's option and either kept him or gotten something of value for him. This doesn't negate that. But I don't think it makes another magical run in 2015 any less likely than it was before they signed Morales. I think I have to give the win to the Royals here. *is surprised*
12/16/14: Indians sign RHP Gavin Floyd, 1 year, $4M plus incentives. When the Braves gave Floyd basically this same deal a year ago, I said it would probably work out fine, because Gavin Floyd gave the best years of his career to the White Sox and that makes him great forever in this space. Sadly, he only managed nine starts for Atlanta before going under the knife thanks to a fractured elbow, and now he has to go the incentive-based single year route again. If he's healthy, he's a perfectly adequate number 4 with deep AL Central roots. If not, Cleveland can scrape together a back of the rotation from the likes of Zach McAllister and Josh Tomlin. What I'm rooting for is Floyd good, Indians bad, June trade out of the AL Central to a team I can get behind. What I'm predicting is an occasionally injured, often mediocre season from Floyd.
12/16/14: White Sox sign OF Melky Cabrera, 3 years, $42M. Yet again, the White Sox needed a specific player and got him. First it was a left-handed 1B/DH. Then a bullpen tandem. Then a righthanded number 2 starting pitcher. This time, they needed a productive number 2 hitter, preferably an outfielder. Melky Cabrera is exactly that guy, nothing more, nothing less. Rick Hahn makes GMing look easy, and he makes commentary pointless. When he took over from Kenny Williams, he said "Huh. We have no prospects. *gets prospects*" This winter, he's been all "So any team that tries to win can win? Cool! *tries to win*" Maybe Cabrera's not a defensive asset, and maybe he'll just be OK and not electric at the plate. Nobody in Chicago will care because he's not Dayan Viciedo, and that's all we ever wanted. Not Dayan Viciedo.
12/15/14: Astros sign SS Jed Lowrie, 3 years, $23M. So they haven't signed Scherzer- yet- but Jeff Luhnow did find a position player willing to take Jim Crane's money. Lowrie had a solid half-season in Houston in 2012 in between the injuries, so there's some familiarity there- both with the player, and his frequent visits to the DL. As aberrant as broken fingers and neck strains might look, the biggest predictor of future injuries is past injuries, and Lowrie's got quite a collection. That explains the relatively low annual value on the contract. The past two seasons in Oakland, though, they were pretty good: a well-above-average bat for a shortstop, defense that was playable if not gold glove-worthy, and just one short DL stint. You know what, I talked myself into it. If Lowrie's done putting his fingers places where they get broken, the Astros got themselves a player. They aren't good yet, but they're getting less jokey.
12/16/14: Rays trade OF Matt Joyce to Angels for RHP Kevin Jepsen. Joyce slots into the Angels' corner outfield/DH rotation with Josh Hamilton, C.J. Cron and Kole Calhoun, and whatever power they lose by benching Cron or Calhoun, they make up for in Joyce's reasonably impressive on-base ability. That adds some balance-if not value- to the Angels' otherwise hackerish lineup. The back end of the Rays' bullpen still looked like an area of strength to me, but I guess they wanted one more closer-quality arm in case Jake McGee is out for a while. Right now, they're looking at Stephen Souza, Kevin Kiermaier, and David Dejesus for their own corner outfield/DH slots. I'd rather keep Joyce than run that out there, but maybe I'm underestimating the younger guys, or maybe there's another move coming. Along those lines, this looked a lot better for Tampa Bay before their most recent blockbuster. For now, win to the Angels.
12/16/14: Dodgers sign RHP Brandon McCarthy, 4 years, $48M. I liked reading Dodgers bossman Andrew Friedman's comments on this contract and the Brett Anderson deal. To briefly restate: If there's a guy with an injury history who you think has turned a corner, you'd rather sign him than a guy with a clean health history but recent warning signs. But McCarthy just hasn't been that good, healthy or not. $12M a year is probably about right, but if the choices were McCarthy at this price or Francisco Liriano at his price of 3/$39M, I would take Liriano. And I would take Jason Hammel at 2/$20M over either one. Maybe that half season in New York was the real Brandon McCarthy, in which case the Dodgers just picked the perfect guy to fill out their rotation. But if you're the Dodgers and money isn't a limiting factor, why wouldn't you just give James Shields too many years and too much money?
12/16/14: Royals sign DH Kendrys Morales, 2 years, $17M. Okay, so this is one of those deals that everyone is sure won't work. I'm not. Here's the problems with Morales: he's had a few serious injuries in his career, he sat out the first two months of the 2014 season due to a qualifying offer he should have just accepted and never got things going, and his K/BB ratio is not where you want a middle of the order slugger to be. Here's the good stuff: when he's healthy, he hits for both pretty good average and pretty good power. Um, isn't that exactly what the Royals (and every other team) need out of their DH? I mean, they still could have exercised Billy Butler's option and either kept him or gotten something of value for him. This doesn't negate that. But I don't think it makes another magical run in 2015 any less likely than it was before they signed Morales. I think I have to give the win to the Royals here. *is surprised*
12/16/14: Indians sign RHP Gavin Floyd, 1 year, $4M plus incentives. When the Braves gave Floyd basically this same deal a year ago, I said it would probably work out fine, because Gavin Floyd gave the best years of his career to the White Sox and that makes him great forever in this space. Sadly, he only managed nine starts for Atlanta before going under the knife thanks to a fractured elbow, and now he has to go the incentive-based single year route again. If he's healthy, he's a perfectly adequate number 4 with deep AL Central roots. If not, Cleveland can scrape together a back of the rotation from the likes of Zach McAllister and Josh Tomlin. What I'm rooting for is Floyd good, Indians bad, June trade out of the AL Central to a team I can get behind. What I'm predicting is an occasionally injured, often mediocre season from Floyd.
12/16/14: White Sox sign OF Melky Cabrera, 3 years, $42M. Yet again, the White Sox needed a specific player and got him. First it was a left-handed 1B/DH. Then a bullpen tandem. Then a righthanded number 2 starting pitcher. This time, they needed a productive number 2 hitter, preferably an outfielder. Melky Cabrera is exactly that guy, nothing more, nothing less. Rick Hahn makes GMing look easy, and he makes commentary pointless. When he took over from Kenny Williams, he said "Huh. We have no prospects. *gets prospects*" This winter, he's been all "So any team that tries to win can win? Cool! *tries to win*" Maybe Cabrera's not a defensive asset, and maybe he'll just be OK and not electric at the plate. Nobody in Chicago will care because he's not Dayan Viciedo, and that's all we ever wanted. Not Dayan Viciedo.
Friday, December 12, 2014
Winning the Winter 2014-15: Part 5
We're still waiting on a lot of the winter meetings insanity to get finalized, but there's plenty of significant stuff ready for overeager winner and loser declarations.
12/11/14: Marlins trade LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Chris Hatcher, IF Kike Hernandez, and C prospect Austin Barnes to Dodgers for RHP Dan Haren, 2B Dee Gordon, IF Miguel Rojas, and approximately $12M. Wow. Just, wow. Dating back to last trade deadline, the Marlins have now traded away half of their top ten prospects from this time a year ago.Here Heaney, their top minor leaguer and #30 overall prospect in baseball, is shipped to the Dodgers along with extra value for a fast but weak-hitting second baseman and either a back-end starting pitcher or a wad of cash, depending on Haren's retirement decision. LA gets a quality bullpen arm, an infielder with some upside, a probable backup catcher, and a top prospect, all of them cheap and under long-term team control. While I think it's a moral imperative for Miami to back up the Stanton signing with major league additions, this is a tremendous cost for negligible value. Miami overrated Dee Gordon, when just playing Solano or Dietrich or Hernandez at second next year wouldn't have been the worst thing in the world if it meant they got to keep the guys they traded. They underrated Heaney, who possibly could have been a key piece in a deal for some corner infield power. If Haren decides to keep pitching, I'll concede that he's a nice stable veteran for a young and unpredictable rotation, but it wouldn't shock me if the deal was made for the $10M the Marlins can pocket if he chooses to retire. I'm getting the feeling that the Marlins are going to run out of trade bullets before a playoff team comes together, but Jeffrey Loria can already say he's done enough to throw his hands up and say "Well, we tried. Tear it down again." This is just the first of many Dodger dominoes to fall, but it's the big win that allowed everything else they did to fall into place.
12/11/14: Dodgers trade LHP Andrew Heaney to Angels for 2B Howie Kendrick. Here's domino #2. The Dodgers manage to turn Dee Gordon and Dan Haren into a year of Howie Kendrick plus the other three players they got from the Marlins. Pretty nice play from Andrew Friedman. It's so good that even though the Angels are the winners in this trade, the Dodgers still manage to come out ahead overall. Really though, strong move by Jerry DiPoto. With all their money tied up in Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, C.J. Wilson, and Mike Trout, the plan of accumulating high-upside pitching prospects to fill out the roster is one I like. It didn't work out great with Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago last year, but that doesn't mean that Heaney and Nick Tropeano (acquired from Houston) won't be good.
12/11/14: Marlins trade RHP Anthony Desclafani and C Chad Wallach to Reds for RHP Mat Latos. Latos is a rental, which is the only downside to acquiring a 27-year-old starting pitcher who is a 4-win player when healthy. Desclafani is the latest of Miami's top prospects to be traded. His 2014 major league debut was superficially ugly, but looking at his numbers for half a second reveals that his cluster luck was incredibly poor. When you allow 45 baserunners and 23 of them score, that's really not all your fault, as evidenced by a FIP under 4. I think Miami overpaid here, too, but not as drastically as in the Dodgers trade. At least Latos will make a noticeable impact on the 2015 Marlins. Slight edge to the Reds, but it's the cost of doing business if you want to add wins to the major league team.
12/11/14: White Sox trade RHP Andre Rienzo to Marlins for LHP Dan Jennings. Sox get a decent, cheap lefty reliever. Marlins get a guy who hasn't put it together in the majors yet, but had good K rates in the minors. Shrug. I'd rather have Jennings, but then I sat through a Rienzo start or two this year and I might be biased.
12/11/14: Tigers trade RHP Rick Porcello to Red Sox for OF Yoenis Cespedes, RHP Alex Wilson, and LHP Gabe Speier. Did you know Rick Porcello isn't even 26 years old yet? Amazing. That kind of makes me like this trade a bit more for the Red Sox. Their plan of collecting number 3 starters has been questioned, but this is one I can get behind. We know what Cespedes is, a swing-at-anything guy with decent pop who may or may not add value as a defensive left fielder, depending on who you ask and on what day. Alex Wilson is the kind of guy Detroit needs like five of, an inexpensive and useful relief pitcher in the prime of his career. Speier is a lottery ticket, but hey, his rookie ball numbers are nice. This one seems about fair, but I think Ben Cherington did a great job in getting a player as good as Porcello in alleviating his outfield logjam. I also probably wouldn't have traded Porcello if I were Dave Dombrowski, even though they really did need another outfielder. Maybe Max Scherzer or James Shields will wind up signing with the Tigers, in which case nevermind, but for now, the next trade in this post is Dombrowski's follow-up. I'm not whelmed.
12/11/14: Reds trade RHP Alfredo Simon to Tigers for IF Eugenio Suarez and RHP prospect Jonathon Crawford. The previous trade opened a rotation spot in Detroit, and they filled it with... Well, let's not overstate things. Simon is going to turn 34 early next season, he's a rental, and his peripherals suggest his 3.44 ERA in 2014 gives him a little too much credit. It was also his first full season as a starting pitcher. So I'm not sure the Tigers got anything at all. In exchange, the Reds picked up a 23 year old shortstop with good range and minor league numbers that suggest he could be a good hitter, plus the Tigers' first round draft pick from 2013. So yeah. The Reds are doing well this winter.
12/12/14: Nationals trade RHP Ross Detwiler to Rangers for 2B Chris Bostick and RHP Abel De Los Santos. Detwiler is probably a good 4 or mediocre 3, but with his entire career spent in Washington so far, it's fair to wonder if a move to Arlington is going to work out for him. Either way, there wasn't space for him in the Nats' rotation next year. Bostick and De Los Santos are both A-ball maybe prospects. A fine trade for Washington, and an underwhelming start to Texas's journey back to contention.
12/12/14: Cardinals sign 1B Mark Reynolds, 1 year, $2M. If Matt Adams needs a platoon partner, well, he's got one. If not, the Cardinals have a right-handed Adam Dunn on their bench. No losers here.
12/12/14: Pirates re-sign LHP Francisco Liriano, 3 years, $39M. There's a pretty wide variance in how this could turn out, and it's more risk than we usually see Pittsburgh take on. Sure, Liriano's had the best two years of his career in black and gold, but it isn't that weird for a pitcher to be at his best at age 29-30. If the Pirates have a weakness it's starting pitching, both on the high end and in depth, and Liriano could conceivably help with both. He could also get hurt or lose control of the strike zone, both of which he's higher risk for than most other free agent starters. The Pirates signed Liriano to a low-cost two year deal before 2013, and that worked out great. I think the Pirates lose here by virtue of not quitting when they're ahead.
12/12/14: Astros sign RHP Luke Gregerson, 3 years, $18.5M and RHP Pat Neshek, 2 years, $12.5M. I read that Jeff Luhnow's theory is that young starting pitchers fail to develop when their bullpen blows leads all the time. I also remember how a good number of GMs get fired for signing relief pitchers when the rest of their team sucks. No matter the theory behind it, this is a waste. All it is is a team that's doubled down on the prospect plan so many times they don't want to part with any of their precious minor leaguers, and no real significant free agent wants to sign up for whatever's happening in Houston. So they throw deals at relievers because nobody else will take their money. Neshek and Gregerson would both be winners, except I bet they could have each scored similar contracts with teams that might be good in 2015. So the winner is Dallas Keuchel's feelings, because now he'll finish 14-9 instead of 12-9. And if the Astros wind up signing Max Scherzer, well, I've already established I'm an idiot.
12/12/14: Cubs sign RHP Jason Hammel, 2 years, $20M. Hey, another year or two like his first Cubs stint, and this guy's gonna be average for his career! Actually, I like this just fine for the Cubs. We knew they were going to go after an ace and a mid-level starter this winter. They got a great deal on the mid-level starter and they did sign someone people think is an ace. They're still an arm or two short if they're serious about playing important games in 2015, but signing Hammel to this contract is quite a bit better than signing Liriano, or McCarthy, or any other mid-rotation guy to the deals they got or will get. It just looks odd to me because most free agents pick the biggest dollar amount, and I think Hammel really, genuinely, wanted to be a Cub more than he wanted another year and $10M on his contract.
12/12/14: Red Sox sign RHP Justin Masterson, 1 year, $9.5M. Another number 3 starter heads to Boston. So 3 of Masterson's past 5 years would make this contract a bargain, and the other two would get him waived. I don't even know what to do with this and I wonder what Ben Cherington knows that I don't. The whole "overload on bats, get innings-eaters" plan might be good enough to get Boston back to the playoffs, but nothing they've done so far makes me think that's happening. This is a somewhat educated guess and nothing more, but I don't think this one works on an individual player level or a team level. At least put a team option on there so if it works out there's some continuity.
12/12/14: Diamondbacks trade LHP Wade Miley to Red Sox for RHP Rubby De La Rosa, RHP Allen Webster, and IF Raymel Flores. OK, first of all, Wade Miley's profile picture on baseball-reference makes me way more optimistic on him than I should be. What a man that is. I feel better about everything just looking at that goofy grin. What's that? Congress's budget deal virtually ensures a repeat of the economic collapse, and for once republicans and democrats are equally to blame? Don't care. Wade Miley will show us the way. As a pitcher, he's- surprise- just below average. Or he was, in the NL. In Boston, he's probably garbage. De La Rosa and Webster were the pitchers the Dodgers sent to Boston in the Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford/Josh Beckett franchise reset trade of late 2012, and failed to make an impact in the majors with Boston. Webster, though, was actually quite good at triple-A in 2013 and 2014. De La Rosa was less consistent, but it's not impossible that both of them wind up in the Diamondbacks rotation at some point in the next year. Flores is a 20-year-old middle infielder, so who knows. This is an interesting one. I feel like Dave Stewart might have picked Boston's pocket and exploited their lack of major league pitching depth in a way Dave Dombrowski failed to do.
Wow, lot of action. And some of the biggest ones haven't even been finalized yet. Hell yeah winter meetings.
12/11/14: Marlins trade LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Chris Hatcher, IF Kike Hernandez, and C prospect Austin Barnes to Dodgers for RHP Dan Haren, 2B Dee Gordon, IF Miguel Rojas, and approximately $12M. Wow. Just, wow. Dating back to last trade deadline, the Marlins have now traded away half of their top ten prospects from this time a year ago.Here Heaney, their top minor leaguer and #30 overall prospect in baseball, is shipped to the Dodgers along with extra value for a fast but weak-hitting second baseman and either a back-end starting pitcher or a wad of cash, depending on Haren's retirement decision. LA gets a quality bullpen arm, an infielder with some upside, a probable backup catcher, and a top prospect, all of them cheap and under long-term team control. While I think it's a moral imperative for Miami to back up the Stanton signing with major league additions, this is a tremendous cost for negligible value. Miami overrated Dee Gordon, when just playing Solano or Dietrich or Hernandez at second next year wouldn't have been the worst thing in the world if it meant they got to keep the guys they traded. They underrated Heaney, who possibly could have been a key piece in a deal for some corner infield power. If Haren decides to keep pitching, I'll concede that he's a nice stable veteran for a young and unpredictable rotation, but it wouldn't shock me if the deal was made for the $10M the Marlins can pocket if he chooses to retire. I'm getting the feeling that the Marlins are going to run out of trade bullets before a playoff team comes together, but Jeffrey Loria can already say he's done enough to throw his hands up and say "Well, we tried. Tear it down again." This is just the first of many Dodger dominoes to fall, but it's the big win that allowed everything else they did to fall into place.
12/11/14: Dodgers trade LHP Andrew Heaney to Angels for 2B Howie Kendrick. Here's domino #2. The Dodgers manage to turn Dee Gordon and Dan Haren into a year of Howie Kendrick plus the other three players they got from the Marlins. Pretty nice play from Andrew Friedman. It's so good that even though the Angels are the winners in this trade, the Dodgers still manage to come out ahead overall. Really though, strong move by Jerry DiPoto. With all their money tied up in Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, C.J. Wilson, and Mike Trout, the plan of accumulating high-upside pitching prospects to fill out the roster is one I like. It didn't work out great with Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago last year, but that doesn't mean that Heaney and Nick Tropeano (acquired from Houston) won't be good.
12/11/14: Marlins trade RHP Anthony Desclafani and C Chad Wallach to Reds for RHP Mat Latos. Latos is a rental, which is the only downside to acquiring a 27-year-old starting pitcher who is a 4-win player when healthy. Desclafani is the latest of Miami's top prospects to be traded. His 2014 major league debut was superficially ugly, but looking at his numbers for half a second reveals that his cluster luck was incredibly poor. When you allow 45 baserunners and 23 of them score, that's really not all your fault, as evidenced by a FIP under 4. I think Miami overpaid here, too, but not as drastically as in the Dodgers trade. At least Latos will make a noticeable impact on the 2015 Marlins. Slight edge to the Reds, but it's the cost of doing business if you want to add wins to the major league team.
12/11/14: White Sox trade RHP Andre Rienzo to Marlins for LHP Dan Jennings. Sox get a decent, cheap lefty reliever. Marlins get a guy who hasn't put it together in the majors yet, but had good K rates in the minors. Shrug. I'd rather have Jennings, but then I sat through a Rienzo start or two this year and I might be biased.
12/11/14: Tigers trade RHP Rick Porcello to Red Sox for OF Yoenis Cespedes, RHP Alex Wilson, and LHP Gabe Speier. Did you know Rick Porcello isn't even 26 years old yet? Amazing. That kind of makes me like this trade a bit more for the Red Sox. Their plan of collecting number 3 starters has been questioned, but this is one I can get behind. We know what Cespedes is, a swing-at-anything guy with decent pop who may or may not add value as a defensive left fielder, depending on who you ask and on what day. Alex Wilson is the kind of guy Detroit needs like five of, an inexpensive and useful relief pitcher in the prime of his career. Speier is a lottery ticket, but hey, his rookie ball numbers are nice. This one seems about fair, but I think Ben Cherington did a great job in getting a player as good as Porcello in alleviating his outfield logjam. I also probably wouldn't have traded Porcello if I were Dave Dombrowski, even though they really did need another outfielder. Maybe Max Scherzer or James Shields will wind up signing with the Tigers, in which case nevermind, but for now, the next trade in this post is Dombrowski's follow-up. I'm not whelmed.
12/11/14: Reds trade RHP Alfredo Simon to Tigers for IF Eugenio Suarez and RHP prospect Jonathon Crawford. The previous trade opened a rotation spot in Detroit, and they filled it with... Well, let's not overstate things. Simon is going to turn 34 early next season, he's a rental, and his peripherals suggest his 3.44 ERA in 2014 gives him a little too much credit. It was also his first full season as a starting pitcher. So I'm not sure the Tigers got anything at all. In exchange, the Reds picked up a 23 year old shortstop with good range and minor league numbers that suggest he could be a good hitter, plus the Tigers' first round draft pick from 2013. So yeah. The Reds are doing well this winter.
12/12/14: Nationals trade RHP Ross Detwiler to Rangers for 2B Chris Bostick and RHP Abel De Los Santos. Detwiler is probably a good 4 or mediocre 3, but with his entire career spent in Washington so far, it's fair to wonder if a move to Arlington is going to work out for him. Either way, there wasn't space for him in the Nats' rotation next year. Bostick and De Los Santos are both A-ball maybe prospects. A fine trade for Washington, and an underwhelming start to Texas's journey back to contention.
12/12/14: Cardinals sign 1B Mark Reynolds, 1 year, $2M. If Matt Adams needs a platoon partner, well, he's got one. If not, the Cardinals have a right-handed Adam Dunn on their bench. No losers here.
12/12/14: Pirates re-sign LHP Francisco Liriano, 3 years, $39M. There's a pretty wide variance in how this could turn out, and it's more risk than we usually see Pittsburgh take on. Sure, Liriano's had the best two years of his career in black and gold, but it isn't that weird for a pitcher to be at his best at age 29-30. If the Pirates have a weakness it's starting pitching, both on the high end and in depth, and Liriano could conceivably help with both. He could also get hurt or lose control of the strike zone, both of which he's higher risk for than most other free agent starters. The Pirates signed Liriano to a low-cost two year deal before 2013, and that worked out great. I think the Pirates lose here by virtue of not quitting when they're ahead.
12/12/14: Astros sign RHP Luke Gregerson, 3 years, $18.5M and RHP Pat Neshek, 2 years, $12.5M. I read that Jeff Luhnow's theory is that young starting pitchers fail to develop when their bullpen blows leads all the time. I also remember how a good number of GMs get fired for signing relief pitchers when the rest of their team sucks. No matter the theory behind it, this is a waste. All it is is a team that's doubled down on the prospect plan so many times they don't want to part with any of their precious minor leaguers, and no real significant free agent wants to sign up for whatever's happening in Houston. So they throw deals at relievers because nobody else will take their money. Neshek and Gregerson would both be winners, except I bet they could have each scored similar contracts with teams that might be good in 2015. So the winner is Dallas Keuchel's feelings, because now he'll finish 14-9 instead of 12-9. And if the Astros wind up signing Max Scherzer, well, I've already established I'm an idiot.
12/12/14: Cubs sign RHP Jason Hammel, 2 years, $20M. Hey, another year or two like his first Cubs stint, and this guy's gonna be average for his career! Actually, I like this just fine for the Cubs. We knew they were going to go after an ace and a mid-level starter this winter. They got a great deal on the mid-level starter and they did sign someone people think is an ace. They're still an arm or two short if they're serious about playing important games in 2015, but signing Hammel to this contract is quite a bit better than signing Liriano, or McCarthy, or any other mid-rotation guy to the deals they got or will get. It just looks odd to me because most free agents pick the biggest dollar amount, and I think Hammel really, genuinely, wanted to be a Cub more than he wanted another year and $10M on his contract.
12/12/14: Red Sox sign RHP Justin Masterson, 1 year, $9.5M. Another number 3 starter heads to Boston. So 3 of Masterson's past 5 years would make this contract a bargain, and the other two would get him waived. I don't even know what to do with this and I wonder what Ben Cherington knows that I don't. The whole "overload on bats, get innings-eaters" plan might be good enough to get Boston back to the playoffs, but nothing they've done so far makes me think that's happening. This is a somewhat educated guess and nothing more, but I don't think this one works on an individual player level or a team level. At least put a team option on there so if it works out there's some continuity.
12/12/14: Diamondbacks trade LHP Wade Miley to Red Sox for RHP Rubby De La Rosa, RHP Allen Webster, and IF Raymel Flores. OK, first of all, Wade Miley's profile picture on baseball-reference makes me way more optimistic on him than I should be. What a man that is. I feel better about everything just looking at that goofy grin. What's that? Congress's budget deal virtually ensures a repeat of the economic collapse, and for once republicans and democrats are equally to blame? Don't care. Wade Miley will show us the way. As a pitcher, he's- surprise- just below average. Or he was, in the NL. In Boston, he's probably garbage. De La Rosa and Webster were the pitchers the Dodgers sent to Boston in the Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford/Josh Beckett franchise reset trade of late 2012, and failed to make an impact in the majors with Boston. Webster, though, was actually quite good at triple-A in 2013 and 2014. De La Rosa was less consistent, but it's not impossible that both of them wind up in the Diamondbacks rotation at some point in the next year. Flores is a 20-year-old middle infielder, so who knows. This is an interesting one. I feel like Dave Stewart might have picked Boston's pocket and exploited their lack of major league pitching depth in a way Dave Dombrowski failed to do.
Wow, lot of action. And some of the biggest ones haven't even been finalized yet. Hell yeah winter meetings.
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