Let's take a big bite of November baseball tonight, while I consider writing a "Losing the Winter" post about Jack Zduriencik...
11/6: Rays re-sign OF David DeJesus, 2 years, $10.5M. On a wins-per-dollar basis, this is fine. Not a great bargain, but the Rays are likely to get more than their money's worth. The question is, given that the Rays operate among the lowest Major League payrolls, was this a place that needed a 2 WAR player? Given that they already have Wil Myers and Desmond Jennings, and Matt Joyce (a lefty hitting left fielder four years younger than DeJesus and roughly as productive) I say no. Maybe the Rays will be one of the teams that take their TV contract money and put it right back into Major League payroll, in which case, this isn't anything. But if they don't, and they have to cut corners elsewhere to keep four good outfielders, this is a misstep. Your winner in this deal is nobody, really. Barring injuries elsewhere, DeJesus won't play every day, the Rays won't get maximum value in a trade for Joyce, and they'll have $5M less to work with when they hit the July trade market.
11/12: Phillies sign OF Marlon Byrd, 2 years, $16M. At least the Rays didn't give 2 years to a 36 year old outfielder coming off a career year. Last spring, I thought maybe Rollins, Howard, Utley, and two ace pitchers could give Philly fans one last run. They didn't, and while it's still technically possible, the odds get worse every year. Marlon Byrd is more likely to provide no value than he is to repeat his impressive 2013, and the Phillies already had a couple guys on the roster who could probably deliver similar value. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. has made a habit of ignoring the age creep on his roster, and this is just the latest symptom of the problem. Byrd is a big time winner for getting this much cake, when it's hard to imagine any other team would have offered more than half the contract.
11/18: Giants sign SP Tim Hudson, 2 years, $23M. Everyone's optimistic about this signing, and I have to admit Hudson's probably going to deliver more than $23M in value over the next two years. In fact, I'll go ahead and say this will be the best free agent pitcher signing of the winter in a vacuum. It's a straight upgrade on whoever else they would have plugged into the back of the rotation and they didn't break the bank to do it. I'll save the (significant and far-reaching) downside for my March prediction series. I'm gonna say Hudson loses this deal because he probably gave away his last shot at a World Series ring, and he didn't even get overpaid to do it.
11/19: Padres sign SP Josh Johnson, 1 year, $8M. The Padres have built a passable rotation between their trade for Ian Kennedy and this signing. If Johnson rebounds from a nightmare 2013 and puts up elite numbers again, maybe he's a good July trade candidate. That's probably what the Padres are banking on, because their lineup doesn't yet instill playoff-level confidence. The Cubs won big with their Scott Feldman signing last winter, and this could be the same thing but better. We'll have to wait and see, but I think this was a good long-term play for the Padres as long as fans don't necessarily take it as a win-now move.
11/20: Tigers trade 1B Prince Fielder and cash to the Rangers for 2B Ian Kinsler. And now we get to the real meat of the offseason. As a jumping-off point, I'll refer to a quasi-quote about Fielder from Texas front office man Jon Daniels: "If he was coming off [the] best year of [his] career, he's not available [in a trade this offseason]." Every year between 2007 and 2012, Fielder hit at least 30 homers, had an OBP of at least .372, and an OPS that bottomed out at .871. This is the Webster definition of a "middle-of-the-order bat". Now, the big question: was Fielder's noticeable drop in power in 2013 the start of the decline or just an off year? Given that he'll play next year at age 30, I'm going to guess he's got two, maybe three more elite seasons left in him. Texas found out last year that no ballpark in baseball can make up for the absence of a real cleanup hitter, but the move from Comerica to Arlington should mask any decline Fielder suffers- at first, anyway. I should also note that Texas cleared second base to give a full time job to one of MLB's top prospects, IF Jurickson Profar. If I'm a Rangers fan, I love everything about this deal. From Detroit's perspective, this can only be graded as an incomplete. Their defense gets better, they've opened up payroll to either re-sign Max Scherzer or sign someone like Shin-Soo Choo, and they've cleared a spot for their own top prospect, 3B Nick Castellanos. It doesn't necessarily have to be a loss for Detroit, but there is a whole lot of work to be done before we know for sure. If they traded Fielder (and a future salary dump to be analyzed soon) just to keep Scherzer, I don't like it. Taken at present-day value, I give the win to Texas. Secondary win to Castellanos, who probably could have gotten a chance a year ago if Miguel Cabrera hadn't been in the way.
11/21: Royals sign SP Jason Vargas, 4 years, $32M. I always go to Rany on the Royals for my KC Royals info, and the first word in his Vargas analysis is "Meh." I can't put it any better myself. They're losing Ervin Santana, who put up a better season in 2013 than anyone other than Dayton Moore predicted. And their plan to replace him is essentially the definition of league-average. Vargas has always been three things: Healthy, consistent, and adequate. The Royals had their first winning season in a decade in 2013, and they might repeat the feat. But if they get any better in 2014, it's going to be because of internal improvements or further splashy moves- not because they signed Jason Vargas. This is probably a move without real losers- league average pitching has its price, after all- but Vargas should thank his lucky stars any team was willing to give him 4 years.
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