With three posts left and four days to go before Opening Day, I might get this done on time. Today we check in on the AL Central. I don't think anyone has a good handle on this division, but I've put in the time, so I hope you're game for throwing ducks at balloons.
1.Chicago White Sox
2014 record: 73-89 (Fourth place)
Offseason grade: A
Since I've already established my love for the new acquisitions, here's where I get to talk about why the Sox are ready to make the leap: The core. It happened fast, but it's there, borne out of the ashes of the Kenny Williams era: Chris Sale and Jose Abreu are young superstars who still have room to improve on their already elite performance. Adam Eaton, Avi Garcia, and Jose Quintana are a tier below, but there's nothing wrong with having guys like that on your team making next to nothing. The minor league system, while not in the same class as the Cubs', is no longer a source of local shame. Then you throw in the wild offseason that added five guys who should turn the 2014 team's biggest weaknesses into modest strengths. That is a long list of players with a floor of "very good". Homerism or not, I currently believe this is the best team in the division.
How it could all go right: Sale returns on schedule, and he and Samardzija dominate. Eaton and Abreu build on their impressive Sox debuts. John Danks still has something left. The bullpen falls in line behind the new guys, leaving the tire fires of 2014 behind. Carlos Rodon forces the team's hand and makes for a really good top four sometime in June. Reinsdorf foots the bill for a midsummer upgrade to the infield. The Sox take the division with a win total in the mid-90's.
How it could all go wrong: Abreu hits the sophomore skids hard. Sale's foot never gets right. The bullpen has new faces and the same appalling results. Offensive zeroes from Connor Gillaspie, Tyler Flowers, and whoever plays second base cancel out the gains from bringing in Cabrera and Laroche. It turns out "being too left-handed" in the rotation is a thing. It's another bummer of a season on the South Side, with a win total similar to last year's 73.
2. Cleveland Indians
2014 record: 85-77 (Third place)
Offseason grade: C
For the second winter in a row, Chris Antonetti and his staff sat on their hands for four months, taking only a short break to get Brandon Moss from the A's. I don't think that inactivity was necessarily a mistake: The team has depth of options in the rotation, and the offense could look pretty good, especially if top shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor breaks through. Apart from defending Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and 2014's most improved player Michael Brantley, there are no stars on this team, but there aren't too many scrubs either. Sabermetrics and writers alike are big on Cleveland this spring. I don't really disagree.
How it could all go right: Jason Kipnis, in his age 28 season, becomes a major factor. Michael Bourn finally returns some value on the last big free agent contract Cleveland handed out. Carlos Carrasco's second half of 2014 was for real. Two from the group of Danny Salazar, T.J. House, Zach McAllister, and Trevor Bauer establish themselves in the rotation. Bringing back the entire bullpen, which was good in 2014, works out fine. The Tribe's cadre of late-20's upside guys takes a step forward, leading to a division title.
How it could all go wrong: Playing DH's in right field and first base every day ruins the defense. Kluber regresses into a mid-rotation guy. None of the twentysomethings that fill out the rotation do anything. Jose Ramirez can't hit, and Lindor doesn't prove ready to replace him. The Indians fall back to 70 wins.
3.Detroit Tigers
2014 record: 90-72 (First place. Lost to Baltimore in ALDS.)
Offseason grade: D
Thanks to the money owed to Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, and Victor Martinez, combined with the absence of impact talent in the minor leagues, the future is not bright for the Tigers. The only question is, how many years can this core be reinforced and prevail over an increasingly competitive AL Central? My answer is zero. Zero more years. As I spelled out in my Winning the Winter posts, the best Dave Dombrowski could do this winter was trade major league assets and some of his last remaining minor league depth for Shane Greene, Yoenis Cespedes, Anthony Gose, and Alfredo Simon. That's not going to be good enough this year. The bottom of the lineup and the bullpen are both disasters in waiting, and there isn't enough certainty around the team's strengths to be confident in this team going in. With a full year of David Price and possible rebounds from the MVPs, Detroit definitely has a chance to make me look foolish, but I'm happy with the pick.
How it could all go right: Cabrera hits .350 with 50 homers, crushing the MVP race. Verlander returns to full health, giving Detroit baseball's best rotation alongside Price and Anibal Sanchez. Victor Martinez doesn't age and J.D. Martinez follows up on his out-of-nowhere 2014. Nick Castellanos starts to resemble a major leaguer. Brad Ausmus figures out a way to get the last nine outs of games. I avoid making Kate Upton jokes because that's not the kind of person I am. The Tigers win a close division race yet again.
How it could all go wrong: Verlander's spring health issues are a harbinger. Alfredo Simon pitches exactly as the numbers predict he will, leading to early and frequent Buck Farmer sightings. Joe Nathan does nothing to earn the closer role, but nobody is there to take it from him. Cabrera doesn't repeat his 2013, and the Martinezes don't repeat their 2014s. The Tigers slide to a losing season and fourth place.
4. Kansas City Royals
2014 record: 89-73 (Second place. Beat Oakland in the Wild Card game, Los Angeles in ALDS, Baltimore in ALCS. Lost to San Francisco in the World Series.)
Offseason grade: D
Coming off his team's first successful season since the 80's, GM Dayton Moore went right back to making the kind of moves that used to make pundits scoff: Giving Edinson Volquez more than one guaranteed year, cutting Billy Butler loose, and giving Alex Rios more money than it would have cost to just re-sign Nori Aoki. I kind of liked some of his other moves- signing Luke Hochevar and Kris Medlen as rehab investments- but on balance they don't make the team any better than they were last year. Instead of shrugging and saying "Dude won a pennant", let's remember that Moore devoted a lot of long-term resources to put together an 89 win team that just lost one of its best players for a draft pick. I think the 2014 Royals were more like the 2007 Rockies than the 2008 Rays.
How it could all go right: With a full Spring Training to get ready, Kendrys Morales is a better power hitter than anyone KC had in 2014. Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy are a legit 1-2, and the other guys don't pitch their way out of the rotation. Team defense and a shutdown bullpen are overwhelming strengths once again. Mike Moustakas figures it out. The Royals legitimately surprise in back-to-back seasons and win the Central.
How it could all go wrong: None of the new players do anything apart from cashing their paychecks. HDH provide the strongest evidence to date that bullpens are random year-to-year. A slightly lesser pitching staff turns those pitching-and-defense 3-2 wins into losses. The team never really contends and finishes with something like 90 losses.
Minnesota Twins
2014 record: 70-92 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: C-
When A.J. Preller drastically revamped his San Diego Padres this winter, the title of "Most boring team in baseball" became vacant for the first time in five years. I mentioned earlier this winter that the Twins were a likely candidate for that spot, but I've rethought that. They probably won't do anything this year, or next year, but no team with prospects like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano can be the most boring team in baseball. It can, however, be on the short list of worst teams in the majors thanks to a train wreck of a pitching staff.
How it could all go right: The young core of the lineup- Kennys Vargas, Brian Dozier, Danny Santana, and Oswaldo Arcia- repeat the 2014s that made the Twins one of baseball's better offensive units. Buxton and Sano are healthy and crack the major league lineup sometime over the summer. Alex Meyer and Trevor May, the two most advanced pitchers in the system, are better options than Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone. The team plays around .500 all year, and deals with its pitching deficit next winter.
How it could all go wrong: Ervin Santana pulls a Ricky Nolasco, as does Ricky Nolasco. Meaningful help from the farm system is delayed another year. Torii Hunter plays defense every day. Joe Mauer continues his decline. Nothing happens via either development or trade to begin to solve the team's pitching problems. The Twins finish with the worst record in the AL.
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