Baseball Spitballs

I've been reading, watching, and listening to every bit of trade deadline news and speculation I can find this month. It's a good time, we all want our favorite team to get the players we want at the price we want to pay. But last winter's Jeff Samardzija trade notwithstanding, that just doesn't happen much. If you want your team to get Cole Hamels, you're going to have to accept that that involves giving up that elite prospect who you consider off the table. If you want anybody of value and you're the Mets, you don't get to keep all your pitchers. So I thought I would have a little fun with it, and make some shot-in-the-dark guesses for some of the major trade targets.

-Cole Hamels (LHP, Phillies). Phillies management has been holding out for a team to offer their best minor leaguers since the winter, and it hasn't happened yet. We can rule out a couple of teams because of financial reasons (Royals, Pirates) and a few more because they've made clear they're not mortgaging their future for anyone (Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Astros). I think we can make some more cuts by looking at the teams that just don't have the elite prospects to give (Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Tigers). There's only one team I see that fits all the criteria: not on Hamels's no trade list, has the money and prospects to deal, and believes it's in a contending window. That team is the Texas Rangers. Joey Gallo is their Mookie Betts/Kris Bryant and probably won't be moved, but a package of C Jorge Alfaro, OF Nomar Mazara, and a pitcher from further down the list seems like a deal that the Phillies could accept and the Rangers could withstand. It's either that or wait for Andy McPhail to put together an analytics department and head into the winter with a better idea of what the options are, and who's going to make the decisions. It wouldn't shock me if it went that way either.

-Johnny Cueto (RHP, Reds). Cueto might be the first trade domino to fall, as Walt Jocketty was pretty much just waiting for the All-Star Game to be over before he starts the retool in Cincy. He's 29, a proven ace, and owed only $5M for the remainder of 2015. That means any team with a chance to win in 2015 will be after him, and he'll probably go to whichever team offers up the best prospect. I think Toronto, Houston, Minnesota and the Dodgers are likely to get in on the bidding war, but let's remember a couple years back, when Royals GM Dayton Moore traded a package of prospects including next-big-thing Wil Myers for James Shields. The Royals are good again this year, but there's a hole at the top of the rotation that Cueto could fill nicely. Maybe Moore is crazy enough to part with OF prospect Raul Mondesi, among other lesser parts, to give his team another crack at winning it all. Concern over Cueto's health could derail all of this, which seems in keeping with the Reds' luck in recent years.

-Ben Zobrist (IF-OF, Athletics). I don't think the A's can risk keeping BenZo and making him a qualifying offer this winter, so this could be another highest-bidder rental situation. Billy Beane wouldn't go after the highly regarded kid in A-ball, though. He would want a player who could step in in Oakland by 2016, and ideally, before then. How about Gavin Cecchini of the Mets? New York's farm system is deep in shortstops, and while Cecchini doesn't have the same upside as some of the others, he's close to big league ready and at some point the Marcus Semien era has to come to an end. I think it makes sense from the Mets' perspective for multiple reasons: they can add a versatile high-OBP bat to go with the zero they already have, and it leaves the pitching depth intact to go after another hitter. We all know the Mets aren't just one guy away from being a powerhouse, but if this was the headliner among two or three trades for position players, that might be good enough.

-Jeff Samardzija (RHP, White Sox). The big winter reload hasn't gone the way the Sox (or I) thought it would. They're not a terrible team, just a handful of games under .500, but with so many teams above them it might be time to stop dreaming on 2015 and just remind ourselves that Abreu, Eaton, Sale, and Quintana will be here for a while. So who would jump on the Shark? A team without the financial or prospect wealth to chase the available aces, and ideally a team that already has an ace and could slot Samardzija in the 2 or 3 spot. I like the Pirates as a fit here. They could build a package around almost-ready-for-primetime infielder Alen Hanson and maybe another guy from their 15-20 range. Then Shark slots in behind Cole and Liriano and the Pirates are in decent shape to take a run at the Cardinals- or at the very least, survive the Wild Card game.

-Justin Upton (OF, Padres). Speaking of offseason makeovers I gave too much credit to, let's help A.J. Preller dig himself out of this mess. Upton would instantly become the best available position player, if we assume the Brewers are going to wait until the winter to execute a full tear-down. This could easily become a bidding war situation: if you wanted Cueto and wound up with Scott Kazmir you're still better, but there may not be another outfielder with Upton's offensive ability on the market until November. Despite their front-office turmoil, the Angels are in first place with an offense that's been Trout, Pujols, and seven o-fers on a daily basis. It would cost the Angels a pitcher they wouldn't want to give up- maybe Sean Newcomb, maybe Andrew Heaney- but one of the best things Jerry DiPoto did in his tenure was establish some surplus of quality young arms. Bill Stoneman shouldn't be squeamish about parting with one of them if that's what it takes to give that playoff-caliber pitching staff an offense to match.

That's it for now. If we don't get some trade activity soon, I might just have to do another one of these.