Ready? Let's go. Welcome to Winning the Winter.
11/05/15: Seattle Mariners trade SS Brad Miller, 1B Logan Morrison and RHP Danny Farquhar to Tampa Bay Rays for RHP Nathan Karns, LHP C.J. Riefenhauser and CF Boog Powell. Because I guess Nick Franklin wasn't enough, the Rays had to go and get Seattle's other semi-useful young middle infielder? I think it's weird that a team that values and understands defense would get Miller and, at least for the moment, plan to use him as the starting shortstop. I guess Morrison is relevant too, in that he's likely to soak up a lot of at-bats as the big half of a mediocre DH platoon for the Rays. As far as I can tell, unless Miller has some power potential he hasn't told anyone about, this adds close to nothing to the Rays. In return, the Mariners got Karns, a pre-arb mid-to-back-end starting pitcher, as well as a solid prospect in Powell. Jerry Dipoto struck early, and got a modest but clear win to start his Seattle career.
11/11/15: Minnesota Twins trade OF Aaron Hicks to New York Yankees for C John Ryan Murphy. Kudos to the Twins for moving on from Kurt Suzuki behind the plate- Murphy is young and talented enough that it's not hard to envision him giving Minnesota some years as a quality starting catcher. Hicks was a highly regarded prospect himself who showed some improvement in 2015, but he has yet to break out and Byron Buxton is coming. A year ago, the Yankees traded a valid starting catcher for a middle reliever. This year, they got a fourth outfielder/Carlos Beltran injury insurance. Better, but still not great. I like this for the Twins.
11/12/15: San Diego Padres trade RHP Joaquin Benoit to Seattle Mariners for RHP Enyel De Los Santos and SS Nelson Ward. As we'll see later, every contending team is on the Royals-style bullpen bandwagon, and therefore, dominant relievers have seen their trade value get out of hand. This was the first shot fired in the Great Reliever War of late 2015: A live-armed teenager and a fringe infield prospect for one year of a 38-year-old fireballer. This probably doesn't matter beyond 2016. Pitchers like De Los Santos are lottery tickets, and Ward is whatever. But if the plan is for Benoit to be part of the Mariners' version of Herrera-Davis-Holland in the coming year, I'm skeptical. Preller gets the win here.
Atlanta Braves trade SS Andrelton Simmons and C Jose Briceno to Los Angeles Angels for SS Erick Aybar, LHP Sean Newcomb, RHP Christopher Ellis and cash. Okay, Hart and Coppolella. We get it- nobody gets to have pitchers except the Braves. And if we reduce everything down to WAR, then yeah, a combined twelve years of Newcomb and Ellis (plus a year of Aybar, which does have value) might be a fair return for five years of the modern day Ozzie Smith. If we use WAR per dollar, then you can even argue that the Braves won this trade. That's not the argument I'm going to make, though, because it's not one anyone outside of the Braves' front office believes. The Angels lack a true ace- which Newcomb might one day become- but Jerry Dipoto left them with enough pitching depth to withstand a trade like this. And when the return is a player with a truly unique skill set like Simmons, it's amazing that this was all it took. One of the winter's biggest wins thus far goes to The Red Team.
Atlanta Braves sign C A.J. Pierzynski, 1 year, $3M. 2015 was A.J.'s best year since his Palehose days, and turned it into another year in the bigs. Good for him! Maybe Tyler Flowers will be able to learn from him in a way that Christian Bethancourt could not. Or maybe A.J. finally gets severely beaten by an opposing player and his career ends. Either way, when A.J. is in the show, we're all winners.
11/13/15: San Diego Padres trade RHP Craig Kimbrel to Boston Red Sox for 3B Carlos Asuaje, SS Javier Guerra, LHP Logan Allen and CF Manuel Margot. Here's the biggest strike thus far in the Great Reliever War. The Red Sox surrendered a jaw-dropping package of prospects: two high-end up-the-middle guys, an 18 year old lefty with good control, and a future utility guy. In 2015, what does that get you? 3 years of an elite closer, that's what. The value question isn't even close. If either Guerra or Margot gets halfway to his ceiling, the Padres win in a walk. In the context of the current Red Sox, it makes a little sense. Ben Cherington hoarded prospects, spent big in Latin America, and left Boston with a major league team and farm system loaded with talent. What they didn't have was a bullpen. Dave Dombrowski simply paid the (insane) market price to add the most valuable reliever in baseball (Aroldis Chapman is a slightly better pitcher than Kimbrel, but he comes with less team control and potentially serious off-the-field issues.) When you can get your man, retain the up-and-coming major league core of Swihart, Bogaerts, Bradley, and Betts, and keep Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, and a passel of quality arms in the minors, you can't really call this a loss. Okay, Red Sox, I talked myself out of mocking this, but I have to give Preller the win here anyway. No closer is worth this, and putting this alongside his acquisition of Kimbrel from a year ago, it amounts to a purchase of prospects. That's exactly what he should be doing.
Blue Jays sign RHP Marco Estrada, 2 years, $26M. The Jays chose to put their money into rotation depth and bank on a strong comeback from Marcus Stroman, rather than retain the now-impossibly-rich David Price. It's not an inspiring strategy, but it's practical, and it's less likely to blow up in the team's face than overextending on one player. Welcome to the Mark Shapiro era, Toronto. You probably won't remember it once it's over. Out of context, I think this is just about right. Estrada is coming off a fine platform year, but he's 32, 2015 was his first full year in a major league rotation, and his peripherals aren't nearly as sexy as his 3.13 ERA or tenth-place Cy Young finish. Another odd piece of fallout from the Great Reliever War: The Jays appear committed to using their best non-Stroman young pitchers as their late-inning combo while stocking up on mid-rotation starters. They could have gone for the upside of Sanchez and/or Osuna in the rotation and spent the Estrada money on the back end of the bullpen. It says something about scarcity and supply and demand that a team is willing to put a high-ceiling prospect into the 8th inning, rather than give him every chance to turn into an ace.
11/14/15: Arizona Diamondbacks trade RHP Jeremy Hellickson to Philadelphia Phillies for RHP Sam McWilliams. A straight salary dump for Arizona, and a flyer on a guy who could be a July trade candidate if everything goes perfectly for Philadelphia. Hellickson set a career high in K/BB ratio in 2015, but he's still more expensive and not better than a random triple-A starter. Win to the D-Backs for not starting 2016 with this guy in the rotation.
11/16/15: Texas Rangers trade CF Leonys Martin and RHP Anthony Bass to Seattle Mariners for RHP Tom Wilhelmsen, CF James Jones and IF/OF Patrick Kivlehan. The overhaul of the Mariners continues here, and this is a good one. Martin is coming off a bad offensive season, but he's one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, he's controllable for three more years, and in the two seasons before 2015 his bat was good enough, combined with the glovework, to make him quite valuable. The Rangers chose Delino DeShields, Jr. over him, though, so the Mariners could reap the rewards. Wilhelmsen, the primary piece heading to Arlington, is now the fourth or fifth best reliever in a deep Texas bullpen. Either Texas is building up assets for a major trade, or they plan to win the Great Reliever War by having the biggest army. Either one would be interesting. I think it's pretty clear I'm scoring this as another Dipoto win, with the caveat that his own bullpen is a mess at this time.
11/18/15: Milwaukee Brewers trade RHP Francisco Rodriguez to Detroit Tigers for IF Javier Betancourt and C Manny Pina. Better late than never, the Tigers are taking their shot at building a bullpen. K-Rod, as he always does, struck out a lot of guys in 2015. He's under contract for two more years, and will pitch next season at 34. Betancourt, a 20-year-old second baseman, is a C prospect. Pina is a fringe catcher, included as a hedge against further concussion symptoms from Jonathan Lucroy. Add it up, and the Tigers managed to drastically underpay for a dependable late-inning reliever in the winter of 2015-16. Someone needs to throw Al Avila a parade immediately.
No comments:
Post a Comment