Last time, I did the easy job of picking the teams that improved the most- and the least- for the coming season. It was an exercise in objectivity, mostly using WAR and a standard age curve to figure out who addressed their weaknesses and who created new ones. Today's post is more opinion than fact. Still using my posts from over the winter as a baseline, I'm going to pick five teams who look like they're on a good path for 2015 and beyond, and five that don't. Let's do it.
The Big-Picture Winners
1. Atlanta Braves. The award for best performance by an executive in the 2014-15 offseason goes to John Hart, Atlanta Braves. With two very good outfielders approaching free agency, with an offense that never clicked in 2014, and with the division rival Nationals building a superteam, Hart chose to restock the farm system rather than patch holes and chase a wild-card berth. At some point he'll have to trade pitching for hitting, because the 2015 Braves project to have a terrible offense and most of the top prospects he acquired were pitchers. But in the long run, it's far better to have the farm system than getting one more year out of Jason Heyward and Justin Upton on a .500-ish team. My favorite move: the 4-for-2 trade that sent Upton to the Padres and top pitching prospect Max Fried to Atlanta along with three potentially useful position players.
2. Chicago Cubs. This is an easy choice, but it's also a correct one. The Cubs still have their near-infinite supply of talented young infielders intact, and Lester and Montero are the first proof that the organization is again a big-market, first division bully. There's no reason to think Theo won't do exactly what he did in Boston: create a player development pipeline that ranks among the best in baseball, and throw huge free agent signings and marquee trades on top of it to create a juggernaut. I'm not the type to get carried away with a highly-rated farm system, as every one of these players could bust. But I read and listen to a lot of people, and I haven't heard an unkind word about Kris Bryant or Addison Russell. This might really happen- not in 2015, but I could see 2016 being a good year for Cub fans. My favorite move by the Cubs was really all the non-moves that kept Russell, Bryant, and the rest in the organization. My favorite thing they did act on was probably the Hammel contract.
3. Toronto Blue Jays. While the two previous entries on this list have their focus on the future to some extent, Toronto is in a fascinatingly aggressive win-now mode. Ownership and the front office are going hard in trying to end the longest playoff drought in baseball. They didn't really have a choice after the 2012-13 trades took big bites out of their farm system and left them with a team that wasn't quite good enough, but for 2015, only one team can say they added two of the 20 best players in baseball this winter. Donaldson and Martin really are that good. The pitching is dicey, especially after the Stroman injury, but Martin might help some with that. Every team in the AL East has big questions, and at least the Jays go into the season knowing they'll be able to outscore anybody. Other than the two teams to which I have emotional attachments, Toronto is the team that excites me the most for 2015. It's hard to choose between the two major additions as my favorite, but the Donaldson trade is higher on the list of hottest Hot Stove moves of the winter, so I'll go with that.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers. Nothing like being the rich team that poaches front-office talent from the smart teams. In a post about franchise direction, I don't think you can get any better than going from Ned Coletti to Andrew Friedman. Picking up a shiny new middle infield was costly, but great for 2015. Finding a taker for Matt Kemp's contract seems good, and getting a player of Yasmani Grandal's caliber in return seems even better. The trade with the Marlins, my pick for best Dodgers move and possibly the best move all winter, was a sweet purchase of controllable talent. Instead of taking on the unwieldy contracts of fading players as they did three years ago, they're getting rid of those contracts and making room for promotions from an elite farm system. It's a great time to be a Dodgers fan.
5. Chicago White Sox. I've gushed over Rick Hahn enough for one winter. Suffice to say the Sox were heading into the winter on an upswing and Hahn pressed fast-forward on the rebuild. The most striking aspect of their offseason, to me, was that every move seemed like the exact right player at the exact right time. Adam LaRoche? An improvement on the Dunn/Konerko mess of 2014. Melky Cabrera? A reason to stop talking about Dayan Viciedo forever. Robertson and Duke? Well, a good team needs relievers who don't come in and set fires every night. And finally, my favorite move, trading for Jeff Samardzija without giving up a single player most Sox fans will miss. I'm not yet sure what my predictions are, but if you wanted to tell me the Sox are the best team in the four-team AL Central scrum, I wouldn't argue too hard.
The Big-Picture Losers
1. Kansas City Royals. That old Myers-for-Shields trade worked out better than anyone could have predicted, but it also shifted the Royals' focus from future to present, hence the signing of players like Alex Rios and Edinson Volquez. Maybe they'll pull a Pirates and become a sustainable winner. I don't know. But they weren't Pittsburgh good in 2014, they don't have a Gerrit Cole and a Gregory Polanco to call up, and they haven't snagged a fringe MVP candidate on a laughable bargain of a free-agent deal. Going downhill feels a lot more likely than the opposite. That's not to say it wasn't worth it for one incredible run, as any Royals fan will tell you, but the question of "What happens next?" is a tough one to answer. Maybe nothing Dayton Moore did this winter could have prevented this, but losing Nori Aoki at a bargain price and cutting Billy Butler sure didn't help.
2. Detroit Tigers. When the Tigers started this run atop the AL Central, they had enough of a minor league system to get Miguel Cabrera in trade. Nine years and two AL Pennants later, the same scorched-earth tactics have them settling for Alfredo Simon, Shane Greene, and Yoenis Cespedes as reinforcements. The team's future as a Phillies-esque mess looks inevitable; the only question is if they get another year or two out of this group before the returns diminish to zero and Mike Ilitch finds his spending limit. None of their winter moves inspire a ton of confidence, the trade for Simon being the worst of the lot.
3. San Francisco Giants. The Giants are once again on their way from World Series champs to missing the playoffs, but this time we have an explanation: They're losing half their power and sticking with old and/or injured starting pitchers, while not drafting well enough to promote or trade for replacements. Seeing as something like this happens every winter in San Francisco, explaining three titles in five years is not a task I'm up to. The non-moves are worse than the moves in this case, but picking up Casey McGehee as Pablo Sandoval's replacement seems the most certain to fail.
4. Boston Red Sox. Boston did a little bit of the same thing San Diego did this winter- getting good hitters whether they have a place for them or not. There are problems with both of those moves: Sandoval is on the downside of his career and will be overpaid immediately, and Hanley Ramirez isn't a left fielder. That's not what puts Boston on this list, though. It's that they needed pitchers to replace Lester and Lackey and they came up with a collection of guys with low ceilings and low floors. Both the Jays and the Sox are trying to win with offense this year, and yet the pitching staff I like better is the one that wasn't revamped via trades and free agency this winter. As evidence, I submit trading two young starting pitchers with upside to Arizona for one young starting pitcher without upside.
5. Colorado Rockies. Meet the new boss (Jeff Bridich), same as the old boss (Dan O'Dowd). I could have picked a lot of teams that failed to move the needle this winter- the Mets and the Rangers come to mind- but Rockies hopelessness is deeper and more pervasive than any other team because everything except the guy in charge stayed exactly the same. The Daniel Descalso contract was the only obvious misstep in an otherwise too-quiet offseason.
And with that, we'll close the book on the winter and look forward to some spring predictions coming soon.
Sunday, March 15, 2015
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Winning the Winter 2014-15: So Who Won?
What's the point in declaring over 100 minor winners and losers over the course of the winter if you don't tally it all up at the end? I'm going to do two separate posts for two categories here. Post one is the teams that did the most and the least to improve their 2015 chances regardless of the long-term effects. Post two will be the teams whose fans should be happiest and the saddest with the past five months, taking into account everything from major league performance, to farm system health, to overall organizational direction. Let's name some winners and losers!
Most Improved Teams for 2015
1. Chicago White Sox. I really enjoyed watching Rick Hahn work this winter. He needed to improve at a number of positions, and he got around to nearly all of them, turning question marks like Andre Rienzo, Jake Petricka, and Dayan Viciedo into exclamation points named Samardzija, Robertson, and Cabrera. Nearly every player Sox fans were sick of is gone now, and the Kenny Williams days of barging ahead in win-now mode are back. It's good to not give up in March. Really good.
2. San Diego Padres. Easy pick, and they're really a 1B to the Sox' 1A. When you can go to perennial contenders like the Braves, the Rays, and the A's, ask each of those teams for one of their best players, and come away with what you wanted, that's incredibly impressive. Perspective and bias plays a role here, of course, in that the Padres were so forgettable for so long, nobody but A.J. Preller could have imagined this six months ago. But now their rotation stacks up well against every team other than the NL's Big Two, and the lineup should be average with a chance to be better than that. Fascinating winter that will be a fun story to follow all year long, whether or not the moves work.
3. Miami Marlins. The Marlins' situation heading into the winter was much like the White Sox': a young superstar position player and a young number one starting pitcher, both locked up to below-market deals, and not enough around them to chase the big bully in their division. While the Sox leaned heavily on free agency to fill their holes, the Marlins went the trade route, beefing up their rotation and infield around their elite outfield at a heavy cost of young talent. I made it clear several times throughout the winter that it made me nervous watching the Marlins deplete the farm system they had spent two and a half years building up, but this list is about 2015 only, and I like Prado, Morse, and Latos for 2015.
4. Chicago Cubs. Everyone knows by now that this was supposed to be the Cubs' winter, and they got their man in Jon Lester. They also got Dexter Fowler, Miguel Montero, and Jason Hammel and they didn't touch the best collection of position player prospects in the game. I'm going to be pessimistic about said prospects until they prove me wrong, and I still have my doubts about everyone on the roster except for Anthony Rizzo and Fowler. But they should be .500-ish with a real chance to take over the division by 2016.
5. Boston Red Sox. They still have too many outfielders, too many question marks in their rotation, and other than Betts, their best players are all in the decline phase. Like the teams above them on this list, Boston has a long climb ahead of them to get back to October and at least two of these teams will fall short in 2015. But the Red Sox could improve by ten or fifteen games, get a sniff of the wild card race, and that would put them among the most improved teams. They did acquire three starting pitchers and two bats this winter, and while I'm not bullish on them as a whole, that should limit how far the 2015 Red Sox can sink.
Least Improved Teams for 2015
1. Atlanta Braves. This can't be a surprise to anyone. While I think the Braves' front office did a lot of good foundation work this winter, we can't pretend they'll be anything close to contention in 2015. This is what happens when you trade 3 of your 4 good hitters and the best replacement you bring in is Nick Markakis.
2. Oakland A's. I really didn't like the latest installment of Billy Beane's Roster Shuffle. They couldn't do a thing about losing Jon Lester, but tearing it all down seems like an overreaction. Their 2014 win total of 88 was possibly misleading, as Pythagoras had them as the best team in baseball. So even losing Lester's production they probably would have been right in the middle of the AL West race again had they brought back Donaldson, Samardzija, Norris, and the rest. Instead they got rid of everybody in exchange for Ben Zobrist, Jesse Hahn, and a plethora of underwhelming infielders. I know there are financial realities in place that keep Oakland from contending every year, but I don't think they're even going to be close in 2015.
3. Baltimore Orioles. We know Angelos has money. We know Duquette, if he's actually focused on doing his job, is pretty darn good at it. But they lost a lot of thunder in Cruz and didn't even really try to replace it. Was it Duquette's plan to count on rebounds from Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Matt Wieters? Or was it to go become the Blue Jays' president, and by the time that fell through it was too late to do anything? Either way, it was a pretty crummy job that might end up sabotaging a shot at back-to-back AL East crowns.
4. Tampa Bay Rays. It looks like the run that began in 2008 ended when the Red Sox beat them in the 2013 Divisional round. When you lose Price, Zobrist, and Myers in the span of seven months, you can't really hope to replace any of them. The step back was due, but I think when all the predictions and projections are out, this will be the first time in six years that nobody has the Rays winning it all. As a fan of worst-to-firsting and a large amount of year-to-year turnover in the standings, I'm bummed to think that we might never see another playoff game in Tampa under the current ownership and stadium situation.
5. Philadelphia Phillies. I'm sure Phillies fans would rather be higher on this list, but they couldn't trade Cliff Lee, Chase Utley, or Ryan Howard, and they're holding out for a massive Godfather offer on Cole Hamels. That means there was no veteran-for-prospect trade to make, outside of moving Marlon Byrd and Antonio Bastardo. Those were fine trades, and I really don't blame Ruben Amaro for holding on to Hamels for now, but all that means the team is stuck in neutral. I said a year ago that the Phillies were further from contention than any other team, and I don't see how they're any closer today. Baseball purgatory is an ugly place.
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
Winning the Winter 2014-15: Part 10
A whole Hot Stove season in ten posts. Sounds about right. Coming soon: The post where I declare the winter's winners and losers, and then, the seven-part season preview. It's almost back, people. We're almost there.
1/17/15: Diamondbacks sign Cuban RHP Yoan Lopez to an $8.27M signing bonus. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs did a good job of breaking down the cost behind the cost here. Like the Angels after signing Baldoquin, Arizona won't be able to participate on any meaningful level in the next two years of international free agency. Since the D-Backs finished 2014 with the worst record in baseball and 2015 is also likely to be a bad year for them, they're forfeiting two consecutive years of big bonus pools- more than any other team would give up in making this deal. So can the Snakes still win this? Sure, if two things happen. One, they need to sign at least one more significant Latin American prospect before July, doubling down on the strategy and mitigating the cost of the two year penalty. Two, Lopez needs to turn into a major league starting pitcher sooner than later. Opinions are split, but the prevailing one is that Lopez is about as talented and projectable as a mid-first-round draft pick. Since all the best Latin American prospects end up commanding budget-busting bonuses and teams have no choice but to play by the current rules, maybe it's best to just zero in on the one their scouts really like. Then when the team can't play in that sandbox next year and the year after that, at least they got their guy. So if Lopez is better than anybody who comes out of Latin America in the next two winters, this was a win. I don't know that. Nobody does.
1/19/15: Brewers trade RHP Yovani Gallardo to Rangers for three prospects: RHP Cory Knebel, IF Luis Sardinas, and RHP Marcos Diplan. Gallardo is entering the last year of his contract and his age-29 season. He's been a healthy and consistent staple in the Brewers' rotation since 2009, with ERAs and FIPs consistently in the high 3's. So one year of a solid-ish number 3 starter got the Brewers a former first round pick and future closer in Knebel, a glove-first shortstop who cracked the majors in 2014 at age 21 in Sardinas, and a teenage lottery ticket in Diplan. There's at least a late-inning reliever and backup infielder there, and it's easy to imagine Gallardo falling apart completely, switching leagues and facing better lineups in the AL West. The cost in depth of losing Sardinas and Knebel probably cancels out whatever Gallardo brings, and that's just for 2015. So I like the Brewers' side.
1/19/15: Astros trade OF Dexter Fowler to Cubs for 3B Luis Valbuena and RHP Dan Straily. The other moves the Cubs have made this winter- the trade for Miguel Montero, the Lester and Hammel signings- say that the Cubs will contend again in the near future. This trade says they're serious about 2015 specifically. Fowler is a fine player, a better leadoff hitter and center fielder than most teams have, but since the Cubs only have him for one year I think this trade was premature. When you look at the rest of their lineup, Fowler wasn't the last piece of the puzzle. They still need to find out what they have in Alcantara, Baez, Bryant, Soler, and so on, and most of them need to succeed immediately if the Cubs are going to pull this off. Meanwhile, Houston adds a viable league-average third baseman to deploy until Colin Moran is ready, although Valbuena won't do much to help the Astros' strikeout problem. Absent context I think Chicago did well here, but as I don't like the timing of it I have no choice to declare both teams losers. The Cubs don't need a rent-a-CF and the Astros shouldn't be trading studs for middling major league parts.
1/19/15: Giants sign OF Nori Aoki, 1 year, $4.7M. There's a couple signings every winter where a player somehow manages to avoid getting overpaid, and this is one that really jumps out at me. So maybe Aoki wasn't as big a deal as playoff commentators made him out to be. And maybe he's lost a step in the outfield. But healthy players with .350 OBPs and the ability to play passable defense don't usually have to settle for one-year deals. Just ask Melky Cabrera. There's no way for the Giants to lose this deal. The only question I have for them is, how do the pieces fit this year? They lost Sandoval and Morse and replaced them with Aoki and Casey McGehee, two of the worst power hitters in the game today. Are Posey, Pence, and Belt really good enough to be the heart of the order, or is Royalball the new market inefficiency?
1/20/15: Astros sign OF Colby Rasmus, 1 year, $8M. Home runs are as rare and valuable as they've ever been these days, but doesn't there still have to be a limit of how many shortcomings you'll put up with in order to add a few dingers to the lineup? Rasmus looked like a potential stud coming up with the Cardinals, but his batting average and walk rate keep dropping. Some day soon, all that's gonna be left is the 25 at bats a year where the ball leaves the yard. Maybe in June or July I'll see Jeff Luhnow's vision, but it isn't working for me just yet. This is an oddly constructed team, and if it works, the offense will be the first successful one of its kind.
1/21/15: Nationals sign RHP Max Scherzer, 7 years, $210M. Scherzer's one of the game's best pitchers at the moment, but I'm still struggling to come up with a way this changes the outlook for Washington. It doesn't affect the Nats' profile as a franchise. They were already a first-division club. It might add one or two regular season wins to a team that was already projected to win its division handily. It doesn't hurt anything come October, but the upgrade from Gonzalez, Roark, or Fister to Scherzer for one to five starts is not significant. All that said, if you're going to give a 31-year-old pitcher a downright ridiculous contract, you could do worse than giving it to Scherzer. He's got a long track record of health and dominance and it's reasonable to expect another couple of years of ace-level pitching before things go downhill. But every pitcher eventually breaks. If and when it happens, losing a year of Max Scherzer, along with the financial cost, along with the uncertainty of a pitcher in his 30's coming back from Tommy John is almost enough to make you worried for Nats fans. Almost. For now, the Lerners can breathe easy about Fister and Zimmermann approaching free agency, Tanner Roark can wait his turn in the bullpen even though he was arguably the team's best pitcher in 2014, and Washington can throw aces every day this October. Which they would have been able to do even if they hadn't signed Scherzer. All that for the low low price of $15M a year for the next 14 years. Must. Be. Nice.
1/26/15: Reds extend C Devin Mesoraco, 4 years, $28M. Locking up a mid-20's catcher who just had a massive breakout year (50 extra-base hits), buying his arbitration years and one free agent year at $7M per? Nothing sucks about this. If the 2014 Mesoraco is what he really is, the Reds might be equipped to better absorb the declines of Votto and Bruce. If he's not a borderline MVP candidate and is instead 'just' an all-star catcher, this is still a bargain. The Reds have guessed wrong a lot in recent years- signing Bailey instead of Latos, locking up Votto to a contract that was one of the worst in the game before the ink was dry- but this looks like a good decision.
1/27/15: Marlins sign Ichiro Suzuki, 1 year, $2M. As a fan of baseball and greatness, I'm a little bummed that Ichiro probably won't get an honest shot at 3,000 hits as Miami's fourth outfielder. But as someone who roots for the Marlins, I'm liking the thought of countless triples into the huge outfield gaps at Marlins Park. Any shot Miami has at contention this year lies in the health and productivity of the best outfield in baseball, Giancarlo in particular. But if one of them misses significant time and Ichiro is the fallback, that isn't the worst thing in the world. For a team whose biggest weakness was and is position player depth, this insurance policy looms large.
1/28/15: Pirates trade OF Travis Snider to Orioles for RHP prospects Stephen Tarpley and Steven Brault. For the second year in a row, Baltimore waited till spring training was almost here to get their shopping done. It's probably fair to say that Snider won't match the production of last year's last-minute addition, home run champ Nelson Cruz, but Snider is one of those guys who seems older than he is because baseball nerds have been hearing his name for a long time. He's about to enter his age-27 season and put up a strong slash line in a part-time role in 2014, so a Pearce/Jones/Snider outfield might be better than it sounds. On Pittsburgh's side, they got a pair of A-ball righties who ranked somewhere between 10 and 20 on Baltimore's prospect list, but the more immediate result is that 23-year-old Gregory Polanco now has right field all to himself. If he can make good on a fraction of the promise he's shown in the minors, the Pirates will have three stud outfielders. A fine deal for both sides.
2/6/15: Cubs sign LHP Francisley Bueno to a minor league contract. I told you I'd have this covered. Maybe it's time I start believing in the Cubs. The man's last name means good. And his first name means Francisley. He's the good Francisley. What more do you want!?
2/11/15: Padres sign RHP James Shields, 4 years, $75M. This winter must have been tough on Shields- I mean, as tough as a few months can be when you know you're going to make close to $100M in the end. But when the Royals picked him up two years ago, he was billed as an ace, the guy who could lead a young Royals team deep into October. And in 2014, the Royals went as deep into October as a team can go. But somewhere along the way, people realized Shields is really more of an archetypal #2 starter than an ace. He gives you innings and lots of 'em, with good peripherals and results all around, but he doesn't ever quite give you the dominance. So that 5 year, $100M number one starter contract never materialized. But when you look at what the real ace (Scherzer) got, and you look at what the other pitcher in Shields' class (Lester) got, it's pretty clear that A.J. Preller got opportunistic again, bought low, and possibly won the winter because of it. I can't yet say whether this deal puts San Diego in that 90-win range, but I do think it's about more than legitimacy. It's about trying to sneak up behind the Giants and Dodgers and jack them with a sock full of pennies. It's about completing the most drastic one-winter franchise makeover we have ever seen. It's about adding talent on top of talent until on-field success goes from impossible to probable. I can't wait to get to my predictions posts this month. That lunatic in San Diego's gonna make things real interesting.
1/17/15: Diamondbacks sign Cuban RHP Yoan Lopez to an $8.27M signing bonus. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs did a good job of breaking down the cost behind the cost here. Like the Angels after signing Baldoquin, Arizona won't be able to participate on any meaningful level in the next two years of international free agency. Since the D-Backs finished 2014 with the worst record in baseball and 2015 is also likely to be a bad year for them, they're forfeiting two consecutive years of big bonus pools- more than any other team would give up in making this deal. So can the Snakes still win this? Sure, if two things happen. One, they need to sign at least one more significant Latin American prospect before July, doubling down on the strategy and mitigating the cost of the two year penalty. Two, Lopez needs to turn into a major league starting pitcher sooner than later. Opinions are split, but the prevailing one is that Lopez is about as talented and projectable as a mid-first-round draft pick. Since all the best Latin American prospects end up commanding budget-busting bonuses and teams have no choice but to play by the current rules, maybe it's best to just zero in on the one their scouts really like. Then when the team can't play in that sandbox next year and the year after that, at least they got their guy. So if Lopez is better than anybody who comes out of Latin America in the next two winters, this was a win. I don't know that. Nobody does.
1/19/15: Brewers trade RHP Yovani Gallardo to Rangers for three prospects: RHP Cory Knebel, IF Luis Sardinas, and RHP Marcos Diplan. Gallardo is entering the last year of his contract and his age-29 season. He's been a healthy and consistent staple in the Brewers' rotation since 2009, with ERAs and FIPs consistently in the high 3's. So one year of a solid-ish number 3 starter got the Brewers a former first round pick and future closer in Knebel, a glove-first shortstop who cracked the majors in 2014 at age 21 in Sardinas, and a teenage lottery ticket in Diplan. There's at least a late-inning reliever and backup infielder there, and it's easy to imagine Gallardo falling apart completely, switching leagues and facing better lineups in the AL West. The cost in depth of losing Sardinas and Knebel probably cancels out whatever Gallardo brings, and that's just for 2015. So I like the Brewers' side.
1/19/15: Astros trade OF Dexter Fowler to Cubs for 3B Luis Valbuena and RHP Dan Straily. The other moves the Cubs have made this winter- the trade for Miguel Montero, the Lester and Hammel signings- say that the Cubs will contend again in the near future. This trade says they're serious about 2015 specifically. Fowler is a fine player, a better leadoff hitter and center fielder than most teams have, but since the Cubs only have him for one year I think this trade was premature. When you look at the rest of their lineup, Fowler wasn't the last piece of the puzzle. They still need to find out what they have in Alcantara, Baez, Bryant, Soler, and so on, and most of them need to succeed immediately if the Cubs are going to pull this off. Meanwhile, Houston adds a viable league-average third baseman to deploy until Colin Moran is ready, although Valbuena won't do much to help the Astros' strikeout problem. Absent context I think Chicago did well here, but as I don't like the timing of it I have no choice to declare both teams losers. The Cubs don't need a rent-a-CF and the Astros shouldn't be trading studs for middling major league parts.
1/19/15: Giants sign OF Nori Aoki, 1 year, $4.7M. There's a couple signings every winter where a player somehow manages to avoid getting overpaid, and this is one that really jumps out at me. So maybe Aoki wasn't as big a deal as playoff commentators made him out to be. And maybe he's lost a step in the outfield. But healthy players with .350 OBPs and the ability to play passable defense don't usually have to settle for one-year deals. Just ask Melky Cabrera. There's no way for the Giants to lose this deal. The only question I have for them is, how do the pieces fit this year? They lost Sandoval and Morse and replaced them with Aoki and Casey McGehee, two of the worst power hitters in the game today. Are Posey, Pence, and Belt really good enough to be the heart of the order, or is Royalball the new market inefficiency?
1/20/15: Astros sign OF Colby Rasmus, 1 year, $8M. Home runs are as rare and valuable as they've ever been these days, but doesn't there still have to be a limit of how many shortcomings you'll put up with in order to add a few dingers to the lineup? Rasmus looked like a potential stud coming up with the Cardinals, but his batting average and walk rate keep dropping. Some day soon, all that's gonna be left is the 25 at bats a year where the ball leaves the yard. Maybe in June or July I'll see Jeff Luhnow's vision, but it isn't working for me just yet. This is an oddly constructed team, and if it works, the offense will be the first successful one of its kind.
1/21/15: Nationals sign RHP Max Scherzer, 7 years, $210M. Scherzer's one of the game's best pitchers at the moment, but I'm still struggling to come up with a way this changes the outlook for Washington. It doesn't affect the Nats' profile as a franchise. They were already a first-division club. It might add one or two regular season wins to a team that was already projected to win its division handily. It doesn't hurt anything come October, but the upgrade from Gonzalez, Roark, or Fister to Scherzer for one to five starts is not significant. All that said, if you're going to give a 31-year-old pitcher a downright ridiculous contract, you could do worse than giving it to Scherzer. He's got a long track record of health and dominance and it's reasonable to expect another couple of years of ace-level pitching before things go downhill. But every pitcher eventually breaks. If and when it happens, losing a year of Max Scherzer, along with the financial cost, along with the uncertainty of a pitcher in his 30's coming back from Tommy John is almost enough to make you worried for Nats fans. Almost. For now, the Lerners can breathe easy about Fister and Zimmermann approaching free agency, Tanner Roark can wait his turn in the bullpen even though he was arguably the team's best pitcher in 2014, and Washington can throw aces every day this October. Which they would have been able to do even if they hadn't signed Scherzer. All that for the low low price of $15M a year for the next 14 years. Must. Be. Nice.
1/26/15: Reds extend C Devin Mesoraco, 4 years, $28M. Locking up a mid-20's catcher who just had a massive breakout year (50 extra-base hits), buying his arbitration years and one free agent year at $7M per? Nothing sucks about this. If the 2014 Mesoraco is what he really is, the Reds might be equipped to better absorb the declines of Votto and Bruce. If he's not a borderline MVP candidate and is instead 'just' an all-star catcher, this is still a bargain. The Reds have guessed wrong a lot in recent years- signing Bailey instead of Latos, locking up Votto to a contract that was one of the worst in the game before the ink was dry- but this looks like a good decision.
1/27/15: Marlins sign Ichiro Suzuki, 1 year, $2M. As a fan of baseball and greatness, I'm a little bummed that Ichiro probably won't get an honest shot at 3,000 hits as Miami's fourth outfielder. But as someone who roots for the Marlins, I'm liking the thought of countless triples into the huge outfield gaps at Marlins Park. Any shot Miami has at contention this year lies in the health and productivity of the best outfield in baseball, Giancarlo in particular. But if one of them misses significant time and Ichiro is the fallback, that isn't the worst thing in the world. For a team whose biggest weakness was and is position player depth, this insurance policy looms large.
1/28/15: Pirates trade OF Travis Snider to Orioles for RHP prospects Stephen Tarpley and Steven Brault. For the second year in a row, Baltimore waited till spring training was almost here to get their shopping done. It's probably fair to say that Snider won't match the production of last year's last-minute addition, home run champ Nelson Cruz, but Snider is one of those guys who seems older than he is because baseball nerds have been hearing his name for a long time. He's about to enter his age-27 season and put up a strong slash line in a part-time role in 2014, so a Pearce/Jones/Snider outfield might be better than it sounds. On Pittsburgh's side, they got a pair of A-ball righties who ranked somewhere between 10 and 20 on Baltimore's prospect list, but the more immediate result is that 23-year-old Gregory Polanco now has right field all to himself. If he can make good on a fraction of the promise he's shown in the minors, the Pirates will have three stud outfielders. A fine deal for both sides.
2/6/15: Cubs sign LHP Francisley Bueno to a minor league contract. I told you I'd have this covered. Maybe it's time I start believing in the Cubs. The man's last name means good. And his first name means Francisley. He's the good Francisley. What more do you want!?
2/11/15: Padres sign RHP James Shields, 4 years, $75M. This winter must have been tough on Shields- I mean, as tough as a few months can be when you know you're going to make close to $100M in the end. But when the Royals picked him up two years ago, he was billed as an ace, the guy who could lead a young Royals team deep into October. And in 2014, the Royals went as deep into October as a team can go. But somewhere along the way, people realized Shields is really more of an archetypal #2 starter than an ace. He gives you innings and lots of 'em, with good peripherals and results all around, but he doesn't ever quite give you the dominance. So that 5 year, $100M number one starter contract never materialized. But when you look at what the real ace (Scherzer) got, and you look at what the other pitcher in Shields' class (Lester) got, it's pretty clear that A.J. Preller got opportunistic again, bought low, and possibly won the winter because of it. I can't yet say whether this deal puts San Diego in that 90-win range, but I do think it's about more than legitimacy. It's about trying to sneak up behind the Giants and Dodgers and jack them with a sock full of pennies. It's about completing the most drastic one-winter franchise makeover we have ever seen. It's about adding talent on top of talent until on-field success goes from impossible to probable. I can't wait to get to my predictions posts this month. That lunatic in San Diego's gonna make things real interesting.
Thursday, February 19, 2015
Winning the Winter 2014-15: Part 9
While we wait for the 3:00 Standard Daily Event and my next chance to kill people with Anafenza, why not get closer to wrapping up the winter? Here goes.
1/6/15: Angels sign Cuban 3B/OF Roberto Baldoquin to an $8M signing bonus. Steve Adams of MLBTR covered the international signing rules in detail here, but essentially, any amount that goes over the team's allowed spending cap costs double, thanks to league taxes, and prevents the team from spending more than $300K on a player for the next two signing periods. So the Angels spent more like $14M on Baldoquin. He's 20 years old with a good line-drive swing, and low to moderate power potential. If the Angels double down and sign another high-end Cuban prospect before July 2, they could make a dent in their poor farm system rankings (28th on BP). If they don't, then we'll just know when we know.
1/7/15: Padres re-sign RHP Josh Johnson, 1 year, $1M (with incentives for games started up to $6.25M). Johnson was one of baseball's best pitchers in 2009-10 for the Marlins, but that was the only time in his career he's managed to string two healthy seasons together. Now he's 31, coming of Tommy John, and sunk so low the Padres declined their $4M club option for 2015 that they put in the contract for exactly this circumstance. As much as I love to support players who were great for the teams I like, I'd have to be high to expect anything from Johnson anymore. Good thing for the Padres that, even if he does get healthy, he won't be higher than seventh on the depth chart.
1/7/15: Braves sign RHP Jason Grilli, 2 years, $8M. Grilli was once traded from San Francisco to Florida, along with Nate Bump, for Livan Hernandez. That was almost 16 years ago and I assure you it came from my memory, not research. Grilli and Bump were and are cool names. Anyway, he still strikes guys out, and got the job done in Anaheim in the second half last year. But he's also a 38 year old reliever heading to a team that already has the best closer in baseball and doesn't project to have that many leads to protect in 2015. Lose-lose for now, but maybe this is just insurance for if Kimbrel gets traded. That would make a lot of sense.
1/7/15: Braves sign C A.J. Pierzynski, 1 year, $2M. It seems A.J. has lost the only skills he ever had- the offensive ones. This might be his last year in the show, so let me say, directly to A.J., open letter style: thanks for the best strikeout ever.
1/8/15: White Sox sign IF/OH Emilio Bonifacio, 1 year, $4M. He's fast, can play a lot of positions, and heads to a team that needs options at second and third. Cross another item off Rick Hahn's shopping list.
1/10/15: Rays trade IF/OF Ben Zobrist and SS Yunel Escobar to A's for C John Jaso, IF prospect Daniel Robertson, OF prospect Boog Powell, and cash. A's then trade Escobar to Nationals for RHP Tyler Clippard. Oh, that wacky Billy Beane. Spends the whole winter maxing out his team's minor league depth and major league versatility, and then boom, he acquires the posterboy for versatility, Ben Zobrist. As the final stroke of an often chaotic offseason, I have to say, I'm not super whelmed. Don't get me wrong, Oakland got good value on both ends of this deal- trading their top prospect for a year of a shutdown reliever and a year of baseball's secret MVP- but they already had a non-secret MVP in Josh Donaldson before all this nonsense started. This leaves a lineup of Zobrist, Josh Reddick, and Coco Crisp surrounded by a bunch of buy-low players who will have to (re)establish their value for the A's to be any good. For the Rays, Robertson brings back some future value in exchange for their 2015 chances. Maybe it was time, and no team can win forever, but we all believe Andrew Friedman could build a team. We don't know if Matt Silverman can. The Nationals are just moving parts around. The bullpen looks okay- if not dominant- without Clippard, and Escobar is a playable second baseman, which is not something they had on the roster. I guess I'll declare Oakland the winner of this trade. Ben Zobrist's skill set combined with Bob Melvin's lineup alchemy could lead to a season that breaks WAR.
1/11/15: Rays sign SS Asdrubal Cabrera, 1 year, $7.5M. Let's compare Cabrera to the guy he's replacing, Yunel Escobar. They're basically the same at the plate: below league-average, little pop, some walks. Acceptable shortstop profile. Both are worse than average defensively at the position, which is why Escobar is playing second base now and the league's general opinion is that Cabrera should be too. Cabrera is four years younger, and will make $7.5M this year before hitting free agency again whereas Escobar's contract is 2/$13M. It's hard to imagine a pair of transactions that add up so perfectly to treading water. You know, except they don't have BenZo anymore.
1/14/15: Braves trade C/OF Evan Gattis to Astros for RHP prospects Mike Foltynewicz and Andrew Thurman and 3B prospect Rio Ruiz. And Atlanta's quest to field a team without a quality bat continues. Gattis goes from one K-happy lineup in Atlanta to another in Houston, but 20+ homers two years running, while only playing about two thirds of his team's games, cannot be ignored. Make him the DH and run him out there every day, he might put up some gaudy numbers. He won't even be arb eligible until next winter, so he's got the magic combination of power and team control. Foltynewicz is a big name prospect with a bigger fastball, but you never know if a guy with control problems is going to figure it out. On the plus side, he's only 23, already has a full season at Triple-A under his belt, and guys with triple digit heat always get chances. The ceiling is very high. Ruiz will turn 21 this season, and has an advanced approach at the plate. His ceiling is limited by his speed and athleticism, but scouts think he can figure out how to play third base. While I think Atlanta's still had a good offseason altogether, El Oso Blanco is a big get for an Astros team hoping to turn the corner this year- kind of like Wil Myers, but with production instead of potential. Win to the Astros.
1/15/15: Cardinals sign RHP Lance Lynn, 3 years, $22M. The Cardinals buy out all of Lynn's arbitration years without going crazy on AAV. He's coming off a 15-win, sub-3 ERA, 3.7 WAR season, but the peripheral stats looked the same in 2013, when he was worth 1.8 WAR. He's a number 3 starter with health and good, not great, K-rates as his best attributes. That's just about what the Cardinals are paying for. If he can repeat last year's somewhat fluky run prevention, or improve as he moves through his late 20's, then this is a steal.
1/16/15: Pirates sign IF Jung-Ho Kang, 4 years, $11M. The Pirates have a team option for the fifth year at $5.5M, and they paid Kang's KBO team $5M in a posting fee. They're getting the middle and end of Kang's prime, and while opinions vary on how his power will translate at the major league level, even a 15-homer bat that can play an acceptable shortstop is worth considerably more than Pittsburgh is paying. They got him for so little that even if he's a complete bust it won't ruin things for the Pirates, and if his bat plays at the big league level, they got a borderline star. Yet another smart upside play by Neal Huntington and company.
1/6/15: Angels sign Cuban 3B/OF Roberto Baldoquin to an $8M signing bonus. Steve Adams of MLBTR covered the international signing rules in detail here, but essentially, any amount that goes over the team's allowed spending cap costs double, thanks to league taxes, and prevents the team from spending more than $300K on a player for the next two signing periods. So the Angels spent more like $14M on Baldoquin. He's 20 years old with a good line-drive swing, and low to moderate power potential. If the Angels double down and sign another high-end Cuban prospect before July 2, they could make a dent in their poor farm system rankings (28th on BP). If they don't, then we'll just know when we know.
1/7/15: Padres re-sign RHP Josh Johnson, 1 year, $1M (with incentives for games started up to $6.25M). Johnson was one of baseball's best pitchers in 2009-10 for the Marlins, but that was the only time in his career he's managed to string two healthy seasons together. Now he's 31, coming of Tommy John, and sunk so low the Padres declined their $4M club option for 2015 that they put in the contract for exactly this circumstance. As much as I love to support players who were great for the teams I like, I'd have to be high to expect anything from Johnson anymore. Good thing for the Padres that, even if he does get healthy, he won't be higher than seventh on the depth chart.
1/7/15: Braves sign RHP Jason Grilli, 2 years, $8M. Grilli was once traded from San Francisco to Florida, along with Nate Bump, for Livan Hernandez. That was almost 16 years ago and I assure you it came from my memory, not research. Grilli and Bump were and are cool names. Anyway, he still strikes guys out, and got the job done in Anaheim in the second half last year. But he's also a 38 year old reliever heading to a team that already has the best closer in baseball and doesn't project to have that many leads to protect in 2015. Lose-lose for now, but maybe this is just insurance for if Kimbrel gets traded. That would make a lot of sense.
1/7/15: Braves sign C A.J. Pierzynski, 1 year, $2M. It seems A.J. has lost the only skills he ever had- the offensive ones. This might be his last year in the show, so let me say, directly to A.J., open letter style: thanks for the best strikeout ever.
1/8/15: White Sox sign IF/OH Emilio Bonifacio, 1 year, $4M. He's fast, can play a lot of positions, and heads to a team that needs options at second and third. Cross another item off Rick Hahn's shopping list.
1/10/15: Rays trade IF/OF Ben Zobrist and SS Yunel Escobar to A's for C John Jaso, IF prospect Daniel Robertson, OF prospect Boog Powell, and cash. A's then trade Escobar to Nationals for RHP Tyler Clippard. Oh, that wacky Billy Beane. Spends the whole winter maxing out his team's minor league depth and major league versatility, and then boom, he acquires the posterboy for versatility, Ben Zobrist. As the final stroke of an often chaotic offseason, I have to say, I'm not super whelmed. Don't get me wrong, Oakland got good value on both ends of this deal- trading their top prospect for a year of a shutdown reliever and a year of baseball's secret MVP- but they already had a non-secret MVP in Josh Donaldson before all this nonsense started. This leaves a lineup of Zobrist, Josh Reddick, and Coco Crisp surrounded by a bunch of buy-low players who will have to (re)establish their value for the A's to be any good. For the Rays, Robertson brings back some future value in exchange for their 2015 chances. Maybe it was time, and no team can win forever, but we all believe Andrew Friedman could build a team. We don't know if Matt Silverman can. The Nationals are just moving parts around. The bullpen looks okay- if not dominant- without Clippard, and Escobar is a playable second baseman, which is not something they had on the roster. I guess I'll declare Oakland the winner of this trade. Ben Zobrist's skill set combined with Bob Melvin's lineup alchemy could lead to a season that breaks WAR.
1/11/15: Rays sign SS Asdrubal Cabrera, 1 year, $7.5M. Let's compare Cabrera to the guy he's replacing, Yunel Escobar. They're basically the same at the plate: below league-average, little pop, some walks. Acceptable shortstop profile. Both are worse than average defensively at the position, which is why Escobar is playing second base now and the league's general opinion is that Cabrera should be too. Cabrera is four years younger, and will make $7.5M this year before hitting free agency again whereas Escobar's contract is 2/$13M. It's hard to imagine a pair of transactions that add up so perfectly to treading water. You know, except they don't have BenZo anymore.
1/14/15: Braves trade C/OF Evan Gattis to Astros for RHP prospects Mike Foltynewicz and Andrew Thurman and 3B prospect Rio Ruiz. And Atlanta's quest to field a team without a quality bat continues. Gattis goes from one K-happy lineup in Atlanta to another in Houston, but 20+ homers two years running, while only playing about two thirds of his team's games, cannot be ignored. Make him the DH and run him out there every day, he might put up some gaudy numbers. He won't even be arb eligible until next winter, so he's got the magic combination of power and team control. Foltynewicz is a big name prospect with a bigger fastball, but you never know if a guy with control problems is going to figure it out. On the plus side, he's only 23, already has a full season at Triple-A under his belt, and guys with triple digit heat always get chances. The ceiling is very high. Ruiz will turn 21 this season, and has an advanced approach at the plate. His ceiling is limited by his speed and athleticism, but scouts think he can figure out how to play third base. While I think Atlanta's still had a good offseason altogether, El Oso Blanco is a big get for an Astros team hoping to turn the corner this year- kind of like Wil Myers, but with production instead of potential. Win to the Astros.
1/15/15: Cardinals sign RHP Lance Lynn, 3 years, $22M. The Cardinals buy out all of Lynn's arbitration years without going crazy on AAV. He's coming off a 15-win, sub-3 ERA, 3.7 WAR season, but the peripheral stats looked the same in 2013, when he was worth 1.8 WAR. He's a number 3 starter with health and good, not great, K-rates as his best attributes. That's just about what the Cardinals are paying for. If he can repeat last year's somewhat fluky run prevention, or improve as he moves through his late 20's, then this is a steal.
1/16/15: Pirates sign IF Jung-Ho Kang, 4 years, $11M. The Pirates have a team option for the fifth year at $5.5M, and they paid Kang's KBO team $5M in a posting fee. They're getting the middle and end of Kang's prime, and while opinions vary on how his power will translate at the major league level, even a 15-homer bat that can play an acceptable shortstop is worth considerably more than Pittsburgh is paying. They got him for so little that even if he's a complete bust it won't ruin things for the Pirates, and if his bat plays at the big league level, they got a borderline star. Yet another smart upside play by Neal Huntington and company.
Friday, February 13, 2015
Winning the Winter 2014-15: Part 8
And we're back! It's amazing how long you can play Magic Online for free when you 3-1 every event. But I'd rather not cut it close with my 2015 baseball predictions, so instead of cracking packs of Khans and Fate Reforged, here's some more transaction reaction. I think I still have one or two more of these to go before we get to the winter wrapup and season preview posts
12/22/14: Giants re-sign RHP Sergio Romo, 2 years, $15M. A weak strand rate and a jump in home run rate left Romo with a worse-than-average ERA for the first time in his career in 2014, but his other numbers were consistent with his previous excellence. I love to mock Brian Sabean for keeping his own players instead of shopping for upgrades, but I don't think you upgrade on Romo in this price range. I like this for the Giants. In a world where Andrew Miller makes $36M, Romo likely had significantly bigger offers to play elsewhere.
12/22/14: Twins extend RHP Phil Hughes, (effectively) 3 years, $42M. The Twins scored one of last winter's biggest bargains when they got Hughes for 3/$24M and he proceeded to post a league-leading K/BB rate and a seventh place Cy Young finish. Now he's basically got a new contract at 5/$58M. Quite a reward for one great year, but if Hughes's improvement is for real the Twins have their first ace since Johan left town. Given his age and the huge drop in walk rate, I'll stay optimistic. If they can just get four more guys to pitch in their rotation, the Twins'll be right back in this thing.
12/23/14: Giants re-sign RHP Jake Peavy, 2 years, $24M. Is this where I get to mock Brian Sabean for keeping his own players? It is? Hooray! Bringing back the same rotation as last year in hopes that Cain will bounce back from injury, Lincecum will be usable, and Hudson and Peavy won't start to show their age takes some brass ones, I'll give Sabean that. And to play devil's advocate, Peavy looked better in his two months in San Francisco than he has since his Cy Young 2007. But still, this can't work out, can it? He's had all of two healthy seasons since that Cy Young and he's turning 34 this year. History does not bode well.
12/23/14: Cubs sign C David Ross, 2 years, $5M. The Cubs already have two starting-caliber catchers, and Ross's pitch framing doesn't make up for his weak bat and questionable other defensive skills. I think the plan was to trade Wellington Castillo, but that hasn't happened yet. As of now, this might just be a case of "Theo Epstein and Jon Lester like the guy". Doesn't seem likely to help the Cubs win games.
12/29/14: Royals sign RHP Edinson Volquez, 2 years, $20M. This is not the James Shields replacement Royals fans were hoping for. The more I look into Volquez, the more this looks like a disaster. So he outperformed his peripherals and looked average for a whole season with Pittsburgh? Doesn't matter. The vaunted Royals defense can't help him if he walks the ballpark, which he's had a career-long tendency to do. Could he get lucky two years in a row and look like a major-league starter, hiding behind Ventura, Duffy, Vargas, and Guthrie? Yeah, I mean, nothing's impossible. But someone from the Kris Medlen/ Brian Flynn/ Joe Blanton tier of KC pitching depth is a good bet to be a better option at a fraction of the cost in 2015. This is something like the fifth Royals move I've written up, and as a group they don't inspire confidence.
12/30/14: Padres trade OF Seth Smith to Mariners for RHP Brandon Maurer. Maurer is not yet arbitration eligible and projects to be a useful bullpen arm. There's a chance the Friars could try him as a starter, but the Mariners didn't get good results with that and there's enough depth in San Diego that they probably don't have to try it. Smith is a quality lefty bat who was out of a job after A.J. Preller's binge on corner outfielders, and he now projects to platoon with Justin Ruggiano in Seattle. Both teams filled a need. Smith will be more valuable in 2015, but Maurer's extra years of team control, along with the teams' current roster compositions, make it look a little better for the Padres.
12/31/14: Phillies trade OF Marlon Byrd and cash to Reds for RHP prospect Ben Lively. As with Jimmy Rollins, Ruben Amaro managed to trade an old player for a prospect with some real value. Great for Philadelphia. As for the Reds, they're in that dead zone between legitimate contention and full-scale rebuild that leads teams to do silly things like trade a prospect for one year of Marlon Byrd. We can't write the Reds off as a wild card possibility this year, but the window is just barely open. One more year of decline from Joey Votto probably means they miss the playoffs, they lose Johnny Cueto to free agency, and they are going to be in really bad shape.
12/31/14: Dodgers sign LHP Brett Anderson, 1 year, $10M. Anderson's been really good, when healthy- which is almost never. I think the Dodgers are basically starting 2015 with four starting pitchers. Juan Nicasio or Joe Weiland (Or Erik Bedard- ugh) are the insurance policies. That's not the kind of depth we've come to expect from Yankees West. If McCarthy and Anderson are healthy all year, then yeah, the Dodgers are still one of the best teams in baseball. But this is a bigger Achilles' heel than they've had in recent years.
1/5/15: Phillies sign RHP Aaron Harang, 1 year, $5M. If you don't have someone around to pitch a game, they don't let you call yourself a major league team. That's the motivation for this signing. Harang is a guy who will pitch in games, and he was surprisingly adequate for the Braves last year at age 36. So he'll fill a rotation slot for the worst team in baseball, and if he isn't completely out of gas, maybe he even fetches some value in a trade this July. Nothing wrong with any of this.
1/5/15: Rockies sign C Nick Hundley, 2 years, $6.25M. We haven't seen enough action out of Colorado to evaluate new GM Jeff Bridich yet, but this looks a lot like a Dan O'Dowd move. Like all Dan O'Dowd moves, it raises more questions than it answers. Do they know Willin Rosario is not a catcher? If so, why don't they have an open spot to keep his bat in the lineup? Also, why did they sign a bad catcher in Hundley to replace him? More likely, they plan to keep Rosario behind the plate. If that's the case, the question becomes what does Hundley bring that Michael McKenry- who has actually shown some offensive ability- doesn't? Makes no sense either way, but the sad thing is that this might be the most significant move Bridich made this winter. Let's hope Tulo and Cargo are healthy for once and maybe this summer we can see some decisive action. Until then, the only thing keeping the Rockies from the "least interesting team" title is their gorgeous uniforms.
12/22/14: Giants re-sign RHP Sergio Romo, 2 years, $15M. A weak strand rate and a jump in home run rate left Romo with a worse-than-average ERA for the first time in his career in 2014, but his other numbers were consistent with his previous excellence. I love to mock Brian Sabean for keeping his own players instead of shopping for upgrades, but I don't think you upgrade on Romo in this price range. I like this for the Giants. In a world where Andrew Miller makes $36M, Romo likely had significantly bigger offers to play elsewhere.
12/22/14: Twins extend RHP Phil Hughes, (effectively) 3 years, $42M. The Twins scored one of last winter's biggest bargains when they got Hughes for 3/$24M and he proceeded to post a league-leading K/BB rate and a seventh place Cy Young finish. Now he's basically got a new contract at 5/$58M. Quite a reward for one great year, but if Hughes's improvement is for real the Twins have their first ace since Johan left town. Given his age and the huge drop in walk rate, I'll stay optimistic. If they can just get four more guys to pitch in their rotation, the Twins'll be right back in this thing.
12/23/14: Giants re-sign RHP Jake Peavy, 2 years, $24M. Is this where I get to mock Brian Sabean for keeping his own players? It is? Hooray! Bringing back the same rotation as last year in hopes that Cain will bounce back from injury, Lincecum will be usable, and Hudson and Peavy won't start to show their age takes some brass ones, I'll give Sabean that. And to play devil's advocate, Peavy looked better in his two months in San Francisco than he has since his Cy Young 2007. But still, this can't work out, can it? He's had all of two healthy seasons since that Cy Young and he's turning 34 this year. History does not bode well.
12/23/14: Cubs sign C David Ross, 2 years, $5M. The Cubs already have two starting-caliber catchers, and Ross's pitch framing doesn't make up for his weak bat and questionable other defensive skills. I think the plan was to trade Wellington Castillo, but that hasn't happened yet. As of now, this might just be a case of "Theo Epstein and Jon Lester like the guy". Doesn't seem likely to help the Cubs win games.
12/29/14: Royals sign RHP Edinson Volquez, 2 years, $20M. This is not the James Shields replacement Royals fans were hoping for. The more I look into Volquez, the more this looks like a disaster. So he outperformed his peripherals and looked average for a whole season with Pittsburgh? Doesn't matter. The vaunted Royals defense can't help him if he walks the ballpark, which he's had a career-long tendency to do. Could he get lucky two years in a row and look like a major-league starter, hiding behind Ventura, Duffy, Vargas, and Guthrie? Yeah, I mean, nothing's impossible. But someone from the Kris Medlen/ Brian Flynn/ Joe Blanton tier of KC pitching depth is a good bet to be a better option at a fraction of the cost in 2015. This is something like the fifth Royals move I've written up, and as a group they don't inspire confidence.
12/30/14: Padres trade OF Seth Smith to Mariners for RHP Brandon Maurer. Maurer is not yet arbitration eligible and projects to be a useful bullpen arm. There's a chance the Friars could try him as a starter, but the Mariners didn't get good results with that and there's enough depth in San Diego that they probably don't have to try it. Smith is a quality lefty bat who was out of a job after A.J. Preller's binge on corner outfielders, and he now projects to platoon with Justin Ruggiano in Seattle. Both teams filled a need. Smith will be more valuable in 2015, but Maurer's extra years of team control, along with the teams' current roster compositions, make it look a little better for the Padres.
12/31/14: Phillies trade OF Marlon Byrd and cash to Reds for RHP prospect Ben Lively. As with Jimmy Rollins, Ruben Amaro managed to trade an old player for a prospect with some real value. Great for Philadelphia. As for the Reds, they're in that dead zone between legitimate contention and full-scale rebuild that leads teams to do silly things like trade a prospect for one year of Marlon Byrd. We can't write the Reds off as a wild card possibility this year, but the window is just barely open. One more year of decline from Joey Votto probably means they miss the playoffs, they lose Johnny Cueto to free agency, and they are going to be in really bad shape.
12/31/14: Dodgers sign LHP Brett Anderson, 1 year, $10M. Anderson's been really good, when healthy- which is almost never. I think the Dodgers are basically starting 2015 with four starting pitchers. Juan Nicasio or Joe Weiland (Or Erik Bedard- ugh) are the insurance policies. That's not the kind of depth we've come to expect from Yankees West. If McCarthy and Anderson are healthy all year, then yeah, the Dodgers are still one of the best teams in baseball. But this is a bigger Achilles' heel than they've had in recent years.
1/5/15: Phillies sign RHP Aaron Harang, 1 year, $5M. If you don't have someone around to pitch a game, they don't let you call yourself a major league team. That's the motivation for this signing. Harang is a guy who will pitch in games, and he was surprisingly adequate for the Braves last year at age 36. So he'll fill a rotation slot for the worst team in baseball, and if he isn't completely out of gas, maybe he even fetches some value in a trade this July. Nothing wrong with any of this.
1/5/15: Rockies sign C Nick Hundley, 2 years, $6.25M. We haven't seen enough action out of Colorado to evaluate new GM Jeff Bridich yet, but this looks a lot like a Dan O'Dowd move. Like all Dan O'Dowd moves, it raises more questions than it answers. Do they know Willin Rosario is not a catcher? If so, why don't they have an open spot to keep his bat in the lineup? Also, why did they sign a bad catcher in Hundley to replace him? More likely, they plan to keep Rosario behind the plate. If that's the case, the question becomes what does Hundley bring that Michael McKenry- who has actually shown some offensive ability- doesn't? Makes no sense either way, but the sad thing is that this might be the most significant move Bridich made this winter. Let's hope Tulo and Cargo are healthy for once and maybe this summer we can see some decisive action. Until then, the only thing keeping the Rockies from the "least interesting team" title is their gorgeous uniforms.
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Winning the Winter 2014-15: Part 7
I've fallen down the Magic Online rabbit hole, but I decided to come up for air today and we're gonna do baseball. Before we get back to transactions, I wanted to put my personal Hall of Fame ballot out. Better late than never, right? I covered my basic position on Hall voting here, and my point of view hasn't changed in the past year. So for the 2015 class, I would have voted for:
1. Barry Bonds. Most dominant offensive player since Babe Ruth. Maybe ever. Covered this adequately last year.
2. Roger Clemens. The best pitcher of the last generation is either Maddux, Clemens, or the next guy.
3. Randy Johnson. All hail Mr. Snappy.
4. Pedro Martinez. 1999 ALDS Game 5. Find it. Watch it. Relive it. You'll never see a better pitcher.
5. Mike Piazza. As I said last year, the catcher list goes Bench, Piazza, Berra, Fisk, Carter. You can shuffle the order any way you want and I won't argue. It's a joke that backne is keeping him out.
6. Craig Biggio. He's got the compiler numbers, plus he was one of the best five players in the game for a five-year period. That's career and peak value. He doesn't pass the sniff test for me the way my #11-13 do, but I can't argue with the facts.
7. Jeff Bagwell. Frank Thomas got in easily last year. Bagwell should get the same treatment as they're pretty much the same player. Maybe Bagwell had backne too.
8. Tim Raines. Second-best leadoff hitter of all time. Played at the same time as the first-best and therefore doesn't get in. Seems fair.
9. Alan Trammel. Probably a lost cause, but basically the same player as Barry Larkin. Like Raines suffers in comparison to Rickey, Trammel will never be Cal Ripken. That means nothing.
10. Mike Mussina. If an active pitcher approaches Mussina's 270 wins, he'll be a shoo-in. Moose was also really good for a really long time at pitching stats that actually matter. And for all the John Smoltz/Curt Schilling postseason mythology, Mussina stepped up his game in 23 playoff appearances, too.
Submitted with apologies to Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, and Edgar Martinez, who were a close 11th, 12th, and 13th. In an unlimited votes world, I would have voted for all of the above plus Gary Sheffield, Mark McGwire, and Larry Walker.
So that's that. On with the chlorophyll- Um, I mean, transaction reaction. This is Winning the Winter Part 7, aka A.J. Preller has lost his gat dang mind, aka the most anyone has ever written about the Padres without getting paid for it. This'll be a long one, because holy crap why did every team announce everything on December 19th.
12/17/14: Padres sign RHP Brandon Morrow, 1 year, $2.5M. A good risk-reward signing. If Morrow gets healthy, the switch to the NL and Petco Park could lead to a big year. Or he provides nothing, and the Padres have to find another guy to be their number 5.
12/17/14: Marlins sign 1B Mike Morse, 2 years, $16M. First base was one of a few positions where the Marlins got no production at all in 2014, so anyone with a pulse would have been an upgrade. The good news is, Morse had a fine year in a different cavernous ballpark in 2014. The bad news: he's going to be 33 when the 2015 season starts and he's always had bad K/BB rates. That's acceptable when you hit .300, something he's only done once in his career. But for that price, you're going to get a flawed player. For all his shortcomings, Morse should add some homers to the middle of the Marlins' lineup, which is what they needed. I think the Marlins did well enough here.
12/18/14: Athletics trade C Derek Norris, RHP Seth Streich, and an international bonus slot to Padres for RHPs Jesse Hahn and R.J. Alvarez. Now that the work-in-progress appears to be coming to an end in Oakland, we have some idea of what Billy Beane was up to here. I still don't get trading Norris, a pre-arb All-Star catcher who will be 26 in 2015, when your fallback options are Stephen Vogt and Josh Phegley. Yes, Oakland needed starting pitching badly and Hahn is a quality arm, but there are more Jesse Hahns in the world than there are Derek Norrises. For San Diego, this is just more selective aggression from A.J. Preller. He's aimed high in so many moves this offseason, and his success rate is kind of amazing. If this is where the Padres catcher shuffle winds up, it's a fine place to be. I don't know if the Padres look like a playoff team yet, but that it's now worth considering is a feat in and of itself.
12/18/14: Royals sign RHP Kris Medlen, 2 years, $8.5M. If Kansas City is to keep things rolling after their great 2014 run, they're going to have to add value from two sources. Improvement from their homegrown core is paramount, but striking gold on low-cost acquisitions like this one is also key. Medlen looked like a budding ace in 2012 and 2013 with the Braves before he was swept up in the Tommy John epidemic (for the second time) before the 2014 season. There's always bust potential in these cases, but I think Medlen's going to turn into an asset for the Royals. He probably won't be ready to make the rotation out of spring training this year, which is fine since he's sixth on the depth chart. Think of it as a depth signing and the Royals start to look like a solid team once again.
12/19/14: Marlins trade RHP Nate Eovaldi, RHP Domingo German, and 1B Garrett Jones to Yankees for IF Martin Prado, RHP David Phelps, and $6M. When the Marlins sell, they sell well. The transaction tree from their 2012-13 fire sale built an entire average team from nothing but Giancarlo and Jose Fernandez. But when they buy, it always looks like they throw in one too many good players. Prado's a worthwhile bat and he plays an acceptable third base, but two years of him vs. three years of Eovaldi seems almost even to me, given that those three years are likely to be Eovaldi's best and Prado won't do anything better than stay the same. Jones and Phelps- whatever, they aren't a big deal. Jones was included as a salary dump and Phelps is the guy you give a spot start to when you have nobody else. So where's the part where the Marlins said "You know what, it's so important we get this deal done, we're going to throw in a kid with a mid-90's fastball and good control."? I like the Yankees' end for that reason, and while I'm still doing my best to be optimistic about this latest episode of "Jeffrey Loria briefly decides he wants to win", I cringe a little every time I see them trade a guy like German. So I've cringed a few times over the past 12 months. Heaney hurt the most because I think that's a trade that makes both the present and the future worse. This is the second worst because it feels like they just tipped the Yankees a prospect for the right to trade with them. Marisnick and Moran I understood- at least I know Cosart is close to worth it- but Moran's one of the guys I think you keep. As with everything the Marlins do, the construction of the 2015 team is highly suspect. Almost like they expect to break it all apart again in ten months.
12/19/14: Marlins trade 3B Casey McGehee to Giants for RHPs Kendry Flores and Luis Castillo. McGehee rode a fluky BABiP to a strong OBP in 2014, and the Marlins got someone to bite after they acquired Prado. The pitchers Miami got aren't making prospect lists but they both look decent enough to me, per K rate. Flores is a 23 year old starter, Castillo two years younger and a reliever. Both pitched in A-ball in 2014. Maybe McGehee is the latest in a long line of mediocre players who Bruce Bochy gets a good year out of, or maybe the Marlins got something for nothing. I think it's the second one.
12/19/14: In a three-way trade, Rays send OF Wil Myers, C Ryan Hanigan, LHP Jose Castillo, and RHP Gerardo Reyes to Padres. Padres send C Rene Rivera, RHP Burch Smith, and 1B Jake Bauers to Rays and RHP Joe Ross and SS Trea Turner to Nationals. Nationals send OF Steven Souza and LHP Travis Ott to Rays. OK, this is a head-exploder, so I'll break it down completely for funsies. Let's look at the Padres' end first because it's got the most names people know. Myers is a former top prospect and a pretty big get for a team that's suddenly in win-now mode. In barely over a season's worth of ABs over two years, Myers has been a slightly above league-average hitter at ages 22 and 23 and people think he's got much more ability than he's showed so far. Hanigan looked like a Rivera replacement, but he got spun to the Red Sox pretty quick so we'll worry about that next. Castillo and Reyes are young lottery ticket types. For this, San Diego gave up Smith, Ross and Turner (three highly-rated prospects), Rene Rivera (an asset both at the plate and behind it, though at 31 his shelf life is limited), and Bauers (a wild card). The Nats turned Souza (a 25-year-old who crushed triple-A pitching last year before scuffling in the bigs) and Ott (a 20-year-old lefty) into Joe Ross and Trea Turner. Whew. OK. Both Turner and Ross have a pretty good chance of being better than either of the guys the Nats gave up. Why the Rays felt the need to involve Washington at all, I don't know. If this was just a 4-for-5 two team deal, it'd be a total crapshoot on which group of young players is going to pan out better. But it looks like Tampa Bay gave up a significant chunk of that future value in exchange for Souza, who I guess will replace Myers and maybe play like crap? I think the Rays lose and the Nats win outright, but it's hard to evaluate San Diego's end yet. Way too many moving parts. I think they did okay, because I think Wil Myers is a real player. Myers' development and the Padres' record in 2015 are going to be the deciders, because if you look at what they gave up in total, it's a significant hit to their farm system. If people refer to this as the Wil Myers trade in five years, it was good for San Diego. But we might be calling it the Trea Turner trade. If we're calling it the Steven Souza trade, I'll laugh pretty hard.
12/19/14: Padres trade C Ryan Hanigan to Red Sox for 3B Will Middlebrooks. Hanigan will be the wise veteran mentor for Christian Vazquez and, soon enough, Blake Swihart. Middlebrooks hasn't managed to capture the magic he showed in a brilliant half-season in 2012, and now he'll have to try to do it in Petco. His prospect pedigree is good, and Hanigan wasn't essential after the Norris deal, so I like this as an upside play for the Padres. If you told me two years ago that Middlebrooks and Myers were both going to be on the Padres in 2015, it would have sounded a lot more impressive than it does now. But it's still kind of impressive.
12/19/14: Dodgers trade OF Matt Kemp, C Tim Federowicz and $32M to Padres for C Yasmani Grandal, RHP Joe Wieland, and RHP Zach Eflin. And this is how a GM announces his presence with authority. Kemp is coming off his first healthy season since 2011's should-have-been-MVP year, and it was an unexpected return to form- good enough to convince the Padres to take on $15M a year for the next five years. That the Dodgers dumped that much money would have been unthinkable as recently as six months ago, especially in a deal with San Diego. That they added three useful pieces in return is just as dumbfounding. Eflin, just 20, profiles as a mid-rotation starter. Wieland is 24, successfully returned from Tommy John in 2014, and is probably next in line as soon as Brandon McCarthy or Brett Anderson get hurt. And Grandal is a 25-year-old catcher with pop. He's not the best defensive backstop- in some ways he might be the worst- but still. 4 years of team control, power, draws walks, can maybe sort of catch, for some definitions of the term. Value. So did the Padres get fleeced? Rationally speaking, it kind of looks that way. But what if Matt Kemp isn't as done as he looked a year ago? What if the Padres just got a legit elite bat that will play at Petco? Not saying that's what happened. Just saying it might be.
12/19/14: Phillies trade SS Jimmy Rollins to Dodgers for RHP Zach Eflin and LHP Tom Windle. So Byrd, Bastardo, and now Rollins are leaving Philly, and Ruben Amaro got a pretty strong return for each. See above for Eflin. Windle is one of countless minor leaguers who could be good starters if they develop a third pitch, and if not, will be perfectly fine relievers. For one year of a 36-year-old shortstop, that's not bad. Rollins still plays an adequate shortstop and still hits like an average big leaguer, so the Dodgers are probably going to be happy with the return this year. And after that, they think Corey Seager will be ready to take over. It's hard to poke holes in the Dodgers' offseason strategy, but I have to say I'm rather impressed with Amaro's work. At this point I wouldn't even be shocked if he finds a way to move Ryan Howard in the next month or two.
12/19/14: Royals sign OF Alex Rios, 1 year, $11M. First of all, he'll always be Alexis Rios to me. Great baseball name. Secondly, he hits for average, runs a lot, and doesn't walk or hit homers, so he's kind of always been a Royal. Keeping in mind that he's 33 and this will be his first year playing half his games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, we shouldn't be surprised if he goes from "just barely average thanks to batting average" to "barely playable". The Royals will sink or swim based on other players, but I don't think is any help.
12/19/14: Braves trade OF Justin Upton and RHP Aaron Northcraft to Padres for LHP Max Fried, IFs Jace Peterson and Dustin Peterson, OF Mallex Smith, and an international bonus pool slot. And we'll wrap this insanely long wall of text with yet another blockbuster. I thought the Braves did well in the Jason Heyward trade, but in its own way this is a better haul for a lesser player. Fried was the Padres' best or second best pitching prospect, but he snapped a ligament in August and that made him available. Now he's the Braves' #3 prospect. Dustin Peterson and Smith both fall somewhere in Atlanta's top 20 as well. Jace Peterson doesn't, but he's a major league-ready second baseman with strong plate discipline. So what did the Padres get? Another outfielder, to go with Kemp and Myers, who shouldn't play center field but can hit like crazy. Apart from perpetually high strikeout totals, Upton does everything you could want. Homers, doubles, walks, passable corner outfield defense. The Padres got a really good player in his prime. As much or more than the Matt Kemp deal, I think this legitimizes the Padres as a team for 2015. And while the Braves kind of look a mess right now, don't forget they still have lots of young and talented starting pitching, half a good lineup, and after trading Upton and Heyward, they even have a farm system. If the Braves suck, it won't be for too long. Is there really a winner here? I think it's the Braves. This is more talent than a team should get for trading one year of anybody.
1. Barry Bonds. Most dominant offensive player since Babe Ruth. Maybe ever. Covered this adequately last year.
2. Roger Clemens. The best pitcher of the last generation is either Maddux, Clemens, or the next guy.
3. Randy Johnson. All hail Mr. Snappy.
4. Pedro Martinez. 1999 ALDS Game 5. Find it. Watch it. Relive it. You'll never see a better pitcher.
5. Mike Piazza. As I said last year, the catcher list goes Bench, Piazza, Berra, Fisk, Carter. You can shuffle the order any way you want and I won't argue. It's a joke that backne is keeping him out.
6. Craig Biggio. He's got the compiler numbers, plus he was one of the best five players in the game for a five-year period. That's career and peak value. He doesn't pass the sniff test for me the way my #11-13 do, but I can't argue with the facts.
7. Jeff Bagwell. Frank Thomas got in easily last year. Bagwell should get the same treatment as they're pretty much the same player. Maybe Bagwell had backne too.
8. Tim Raines. Second-best leadoff hitter of all time. Played at the same time as the first-best and therefore doesn't get in. Seems fair.
9. Alan Trammel. Probably a lost cause, but basically the same player as Barry Larkin. Like Raines suffers in comparison to Rickey, Trammel will never be Cal Ripken. That means nothing.
10. Mike Mussina. If an active pitcher approaches Mussina's 270 wins, he'll be a shoo-in. Moose was also really good for a really long time at pitching stats that actually matter. And for all the John Smoltz/Curt Schilling postseason mythology, Mussina stepped up his game in 23 playoff appearances, too.
Submitted with apologies to Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, and Edgar Martinez, who were a close 11th, 12th, and 13th. In an unlimited votes world, I would have voted for all of the above plus Gary Sheffield, Mark McGwire, and Larry Walker.
So that's that. On with the chlorophyll- Um, I mean, transaction reaction. This is Winning the Winter Part 7, aka A.J. Preller has lost his gat dang mind, aka the most anyone has ever written about the Padres without getting paid for it. This'll be a long one, because holy crap why did every team announce everything on December 19th.
12/17/14: Padres sign RHP Brandon Morrow, 1 year, $2.5M. A good risk-reward signing. If Morrow gets healthy, the switch to the NL and Petco Park could lead to a big year. Or he provides nothing, and the Padres have to find another guy to be their number 5.
12/17/14: Marlins sign 1B Mike Morse, 2 years, $16M. First base was one of a few positions where the Marlins got no production at all in 2014, so anyone with a pulse would have been an upgrade. The good news is, Morse had a fine year in a different cavernous ballpark in 2014. The bad news: he's going to be 33 when the 2015 season starts and he's always had bad K/BB rates. That's acceptable when you hit .300, something he's only done once in his career. But for that price, you're going to get a flawed player. For all his shortcomings, Morse should add some homers to the middle of the Marlins' lineup, which is what they needed. I think the Marlins did well enough here.
12/18/14: Athletics trade C Derek Norris, RHP Seth Streich, and an international bonus slot to Padres for RHPs Jesse Hahn and R.J. Alvarez. Now that the work-in-progress appears to be coming to an end in Oakland, we have some idea of what Billy Beane was up to here. I still don't get trading Norris, a pre-arb All-Star catcher who will be 26 in 2015, when your fallback options are Stephen Vogt and Josh Phegley. Yes, Oakland needed starting pitching badly and Hahn is a quality arm, but there are more Jesse Hahns in the world than there are Derek Norrises. For San Diego, this is just more selective aggression from A.J. Preller. He's aimed high in so many moves this offseason, and his success rate is kind of amazing. If this is where the Padres catcher shuffle winds up, it's a fine place to be. I don't know if the Padres look like a playoff team yet, but that it's now worth considering is a feat in and of itself.
12/18/14: Royals sign RHP Kris Medlen, 2 years, $8.5M. If Kansas City is to keep things rolling after their great 2014 run, they're going to have to add value from two sources. Improvement from their homegrown core is paramount, but striking gold on low-cost acquisitions like this one is also key. Medlen looked like a budding ace in 2012 and 2013 with the Braves before he was swept up in the Tommy John epidemic (for the second time) before the 2014 season. There's always bust potential in these cases, but I think Medlen's going to turn into an asset for the Royals. He probably won't be ready to make the rotation out of spring training this year, which is fine since he's sixth on the depth chart. Think of it as a depth signing and the Royals start to look like a solid team once again.
12/19/14: Marlins trade RHP Nate Eovaldi, RHP Domingo German, and 1B Garrett Jones to Yankees for IF Martin Prado, RHP David Phelps, and $6M. When the Marlins sell, they sell well. The transaction tree from their 2012-13 fire sale built an entire average team from nothing but Giancarlo and Jose Fernandez. But when they buy, it always looks like they throw in one too many good players. Prado's a worthwhile bat and he plays an acceptable third base, but two years of him vs. three years of Eovaldi seems almost even to me, given that those three years are likely to be Eovaldi's best and Prado won't do anything better than stay the same. Jones and Phelps- whatever, they aren't a big deal. Jones was included as a salary dump and Phelps is the guy you give a spot start to when you have nobody else. So where's the part where the Marlins said "You know what, it's so important we get this deal done, we're going to throw in a kid with a mid-90's fastball and good control."? I like the Yankees' end for that reason, and while I'm still doing my best to be optimistic about this latest episode of "Jeffrey Loria briefly decides he wants to win", I cringe a little every time I see them trade a guy like German. So I've cringed a few times over the past 12 months. Heaney hurt the most because I think that's a trade that makes both the present and the future worse. This is the second worst because it feels like they just tipped the Yankees a prospect for the right to trade with them. Marisnick and Moran I understood- at least I know Cosart is close to worth it- but Moran's one of the guys I think you keep. As with everything the Marlins do, the construction of the 2015 team is highly suspect. Almost like they expect to break it all apart again in ten months.
12/19/14: Marlins trade 3B Casey McGehee to Giants for RHPs Kendry Flores and Luis Castillo. McGehee rode a fluky BABiP to a strong OBP in 2014, and the Marlins got someone to bite after they acquired Prado. The pitchers Miami got aren't making prospect lists but they both look decent enough to me, per K rate. Flores is a 23 year old starter, Castillo two years younger and a reliever. Both pitched in A-ball in 2014. Maybe McGehee is the latest in a long line of mediocre players who Bruce Bochy gets a good year out of, or maybe the Marlins got something for nothing. I think it's the second one.
12/19/14: In a three-way trade, Rays send OF Wil Myers, C Ryan Hanigan, LHP Jose Castillo, and RHP Gerardo Reyes to Padres. Padres send C Rene Rivera, RHP Burch Smith, and 1B Jake Bauers to Rays and RHP Joe Ross and SS Trea Turner to Nationals. Nationals send OF Steven Souza and LHP Travis Ott to Rays. OK, this is a head-exploder, so I'll break it down completely for funsies. Let's look at the Padres' end first because it's got the most names people know. Myers is a former top prospect and a pretty big get for a team that's suddenly in win-now mode. In barely over a season's worth of ABs over two years, Myers has been a slightly above league-average hitter at ages 22 and 23 and people think he's got much more ability than he's showed so far. Hanigan looked like a Rivera replacement, but he got spun to the Red Sox pretty quick so we'll worry about that next. Castillo and Reyes are young lottery ticket types. For this, San Diego gave up Smith, Ross and Turner (three highly-rated prospects), Rene Rivera (an asset both at the plate and behind it, though at 31 his shelf life is limited), and Bauers (a wild card). The Nats turned Souza (a 25-year-old who crushed triple-A pitching last year before scuffling in the bigs) and Ott (a 20-year-old lefty) into Joe Ross and Trea Turner. Whew. OK. Both Turner and Ross have a pretty good chance of being better than either of the guys the Nats gave up. Why the Rays felt the need to involve Washington at all, I don't know. If this was just a 4-for-5 two team deal, it'd be a total crapshoot on which group of young players is going to pan out better. But it looks like Tampa Bay gave up a significant chunk of that future value in exchange for Souza, who I guess will replace Myers and maybe play like crap? I think the Rays lose and the Nats win outright, but it's hard to evaluate San Diego's end yet. Way too many moving parts. I think they did okay, because I think Wil Myers is a real player. Myers' development and the Padres' record in 2015 are going to be the deciders, because if you look at what they gave up in total, it's a significant hit to their farm system. If people refer to this as the Wil Myers trade in five years, it was good for San Diego. But we might be calling it the Trea Turner trade. If we're calling it the Steven Souza trade, I'll laugh pretty hard.
12/19/14: Padres trade C Ryan Hanigan to Red Sox for 3B Will Middlebrooks. Hanigan will be the wise veteran mentor for Christian Vazquez and, soon enough, Blake Swihart. Middlebrooks hasn't managed to capture the magic he showed in a brilliant half-season in 2012, and now he'll have to try to do it in Petco. His prospect pedigree is good, and Hanigan wasn't essential after the Norris deal, so I like this as an upside play for the Padres. If you told me two years ago that Middlebrooks and Myers were both going to be on the Padres in 2015, it would have sounded a lot more impressive than it does now. But it's still kind of impressive.
12/19/14: Dodgers trade OF Matt Kemp, C Tim Federowicz and $32M to Padres for C Yasmani Grandal, RHP Joe Wieland, and RHP Zach Eflin. And this is how a GM announces his presence with authority. Kemp is coming off his first healthy season since 2011's should-have-been-MVP year, and it was an unexpected return to form- good enough to convince the Padres to take on $15M a year for the next five years. That the Dodgers dumped that much money would have been unthinkable as recently as six months ago, especially in a deal with San Diego. That they added three useful pieces in return is just as dumbfounding. Eflin, just 20, profiles as a mid-rotation starter. Wieland is 24, successfully returned from Tommy John in 2014, and is probably next in line as soon as Brandon McCarthy or Brett Anderson get hurt. And Grandal is a 25-year-old catcher with pop. He's not the best defensive backstop- in some ways he might be the worst- but still. 4 years of team control, power, draws walks, can maybe sort of catch, for some definitions of the term. Value. So did the Padres get fleeced? Rationally speaking, it kind of looks that way. But what if Matt Kemp isn't as done as he looked a year ago? What if the Padres just got a legit elite bat that will play at Petco? Not saying that's what happened. Just saying it might be.
12/19/14: Phillies trade SS Jimmy Rollins to Dodgers for RHP Zach Eflin and LHP Tom Windle. So Byrd, Bastardo, and now Rollins are leaving Philly, and Ruben Amaro got a pretty strong return for each. See above for Eflin. Windle is one of countless minor leaguers who could be good starters if they develop a third pitch, and if not, will be perfectly fine relievers. For one year of a 36-year-old shortstop, that's not bad. Rollins still plays an adequate shortstop and still hits like an average big leaguer, so the Dodgers are probably going to be happy with the return this year. And after that, they think Corey Seager will be ready to take over. It's hard to poke holes in the Dodgers' offseason strategy, but I have to say I'm rather impressed with Amaro's work. At this point I wouldn't even be shocked if he finds a way to move Ryan Howard in the next month or two.
12/19/14: Royals sign OF Alex Rios, 1 year, $11M. First of all, he'll always be Alexis Rios to me. Great baseball name. Secondly, he hits for average, runs a lot, and doesn't walk or hit homers, so he's kind of always been a Royal. Keeping in mind that he's 33 and this will be his first year playing half his games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, we shouldn't be surprised if he goes from "just barely average thanks to batting average" to "barely playable". The Royals will sink or swim based on other players, but I don't think is any help.
12/19/14: Braves trade OF Justin Upton and RHP Aaron Northcraft to Padres for LHP Max Fried, IFs Jace Peterson and Dustin Peterson, OF Mallex Smith, and an international bonus pool slot. And we'll wrap this insanely long wall of text with yet another blockbuster. I thought the Braves did well in the Jason Heyward trade, but in its own way this is a better haul for a lesser player. Fried was the Padres' best or second best pitching prospect, but he snapped a ligament in August and that made him available. Now he's the Braves' #3 prospect. Dustin Peterson and Smith both fall somewhere in Atlanta's top 20 as well. Jace Peterson doesn't, but he's a major league-ready second baseman with strong plate discipline. So what did the Padres get? Another outfielder, to go with Kemp and Myers, who shouldn't play center field but can hit like crazy. Apart from perpetually high strikeout totals, Upton does everything you could want. Homers, doubles, walks, passable corner outfield defense. The Padres got a really good player in his prime. As much or more than the Matt Kemp deal, I think this legitimizes the Padres as a team for 2015. And while the Braves kind of look a mess right now, don't forget they still have lots of young and talented starting pitching, half a good lineup, and after trading Upton and Heyward, they even have a farm system. If the Braves suck, it won't be for too long. Is there really a winner here? I think it's the Braves. This is more talent than a team should get for trading one year of anybody.
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
The Best Songs of 2014
The albums post gave away plenty of what's coming here, but that's not going to stop me from doing my twentieth annual top ten songs list. In that spirit, let's flash back and show you what my number one song was way back in 1995:
Yes, Blues Traveler fended off challenges from such luminaries as Sponge, Bush, and Silverchair to take the title. Not that this is dated or anything. Since the days of that homemade mixtape, everyone from Jewel to Local H has had their year at the top of my list. Now it's time for The Wonder Years to pass the crown to 2014's champion. Here we go.
10. Counting Crows- John Appleseed's Lament
"Come on Adam, tell me, what the hell is wrong with you?" is probably something Adam Duritz has heard a lot in his life. When he echoes those words from a significant other in this song, it's just part of a self-portrait of a crazy guy who isn't entirely unhappy with being crazy. Ain't no matter where you find the circus. The circus is everywhere.
9. Sons of Bill- Bad Dancer
For me, "Bad Dancer" was the main bright spot on the new album from Virginian band of brothers Sons of Bill. This one track provides 100% of the rock on an otherwise super-mellow country album, but I'm just happy there was one song that reminded me of their unbelievably perfect record, "Sirens", from 2012.
8. Against Me!- Osama Bin Laden as the Crucified Christ
Everything about "Transgender Dysphoria Blues" is ambitious and explicit. This comparison of the treatment of trans folk to the treatment of war criminals ("You're gonna hang like Benito from the Esso rafters") is a standout among standouts. I don't think I totally got it until I was right in front of the stage as Laura sang it at the Aragon Ballroom this year, and then something clicked for me. The emotions and statements this album makes are not fun or easy to process, but I can't stop thinking that they're important. All that aside, it just rocks harder than almost anything I heard this year.
7. The Dollyrots- Love Ya, Love Ya, Love Ya
In some worlds, both the last song and this one are considered punk, but that's pretty much where the similarities end. This is bassist/singer Kelly Ogden and guitarist/singer Luis Cabezas at their shiniest and happiest. The video contains lethal levels of cute, as well as some random attempts to show their edge. It just makes them even more adorable.
6. Roger Clyne & The Peacemakers- Ain't Got the Words
Clever yet honest lyrics? Check. Roger singing like he means it? Check. Solid rock and roll, RCPM style? That's a big check. With the only really special track from "The Independent", one-time "Dave's song of the year" winner Roger Clyne lands in the top ten yet again.
5. The Gaslight Anthem- Dark Places
The Gaslight Anthem is just the latest in a long line of bands that resonate completely with me. The easiest way for a band to impress me is for the singer to sincerely bare his or her soul in song form, and "Dark Places" does exactly that, just as "The Backseat", "The Patient Ferris Wheel", and "Great Expectations" did last year when I became obsessed with their old album "The '59 Sound". 2014's "Get Hurt" delivered more than a few songs that measure up to that standard as singer/songwriter Brian Fallon continues his life's mission of putting too much blood on the page.
4. Against Me!- Black Me Out
As I said in yesterday's post, "Transgender Dysphoria Blues" is essentially an album about pain. Its stunning final track, "Black Me Out" takes all the pain, sorts it out, and puts it where it belongs. The pain of growth, of positive change? Keep it, it's powerful. The pain of decay, brought on by outside sources? It's useless. Let it out and let it be. As an autobiographical piece, this is Laura Jane Grace acknowledging that she's at the center of her own personal maelstrom, but at least she's still standing. As a statement for the fictional pseudo-character of the album, as well as all the amazing people who have died young, are dying young, and will die young because they had the bad luck of being born in the wrong body? It's a eulogy.
3. Local H- Team (Lorde cover)
I've heard Scott Lucas cover dozens of songs in my life. Good ones, bad ones, it doesn't matter. Coming out of him and his drummer, or just him with an acoustic guitar, they all sound incredible. This song is the reason I had to include the word "Almost" in my entry for #8 this year. This song melts faces, takes names, then gives those names to other people. Whose faces it then melts. For much of the year, I had this one holding the top spot. My current working theory is that Scott's from the future, wrote "Team", then gave it to Lourde so he could cover it. Think about it. Who has more right to say "I'm kinda over getting told to throw my hands up in the air": a 44 year old kinda-famous rocker from Zion, IL, or a precocious 18 year old from New Zealand (Or possibly Randy Marsh)? Yeah. I thought so.
2. The Gaslight Anthem- Mama's Boys
I've made a lot of mistakes in my life, but every now and then I'm just the victim of really bad timing. In April, I decided to give up binge drinking. I swore off liquor, stopped keeping beer in the house, and started drinking only when I went out, usually at concerts. So what happens in August? That's right, the greatest cry-in-your-beer song of all time is released as a bonus track on the new Gaslight Anthem album. And I'm never drunk enough to fully appreciate it. Like "Team", this is another one that held the top spot on this list, basically from its release on August 19th through to today. But it's not the winner. It can't be. Not this year.
1. Against Me!- Paralytic States
Yes, Blues Traveler fended off challenges from such luminaries as Sponge, Bush, and Silverchair to take the title. Not that this is dated or anything. Since the days of that homemade mixtape, everyone from Jewel to Local H has had their year at the top of my list. Now it's time for The Wonder Years to pass the crown to 2014's champion. Here we go.
10. Counting Crows- John Appleseed's Lament
"Come on Adam, tell me, what the hell is wrong with you?" is probably something Adam Duritz has heard a lot in his life. When he echoes those words from a significant other in this song, it's just part of a self-portrait of a crazy guy who isn't entirely unhappy with being crazy. Ain't no matter where you find the circus. The circus is everywhere.
9. Sons of Bill- Bad Dancer
For me, "Bad Dancer" was the main bright spot on the new album from Virginian band of brothers Sons of Bill. This one track provides 100% of the rock on an otherwise super-mellow country album, but I'm just happy there was one song that reminded me of their unbelievably perfect record, "Sirens", from 2012.
8. Against Me!- Osama Bin Laden as the Crucified Christ
Everything about "Transgender Dysphoria Blues" is ambitious and explicit. This comparison of the treatment of trans folk to the treatment of war criminals ("You're gonna hang like Benito from the Esso rafters") is a standout among standouts. I don't think I totally got it until I was right in front of the stage as Laura sang it at the Aragon Ballroom this year, and then something clicked for me. The emotions and statements this album makes are not fun or easy to process, but I can't stop thinking that they're important. All that aside, it just rocks harder than almost anything I heard this year.
7. The Dollyrots- Love Ya, Love Ya, Love Ya
In some worlds, both the last song and this one are considered punk, but that's pretty much where the similarities end. This is bassist/singer Kelly Ogden and guitarist/singer Luis Cabezas at their shiniest and happiest. The video contains lethal levels of cute, as well as some random attempts to show their edge. It just makes them even more adorable.
6. Roger Clyne & The Peacemakers- Ain't Got the Words
Clever yet honest lyrics? Check. Roger singing like he means it? Check. Solid rock and roll, RCPM style? That's a big check. With the only really special track from "The Independent", one-time "Dave's song of the year" winner Roger Clyne lands in the top ten yet again.
5. The Gaslight Anthem- Dark Places
The Gaslight Anthem is just the latest in a long line of bands that resonate completely with me. The easiest way for a band to impress me is for the singer to sincerely bare his or her soul in song form, and "Dark Places" does exactly that, just as "The Backseat", "The Patient Ferris Wheel", and "Great Expectations" did last year when I became obsessed with their old album "The '59 Sound". 2014's "Get Hurt" delivered more than a few songs that measure up to that standard as singer/songwriter Brian Fallon continues his life's mission of putting too much blood on the page.
4. Against Me!- Black Me Out
As I said in yesterday's post, "Transgender Dysphoria Blues" is essentially an album about pain. Its stunning final track, "Black Me Out" takes all the pain, sorts it out, and puts it where it belongs. The pain of growth, of positive change? Keep it, it's powerful. The pain of decay, brought on by outside sources? It's useless. Let it out and let it be. As an autobiographical piece, this is Laura Jane Grace acknowledging that she's at the center of her own personal maelstrom, but at least she's still standing. As a statement for the fictional pseudo-character of the album, as well as all the amazing people who have died young, are dying young, and will die young because they had the bad luck of being born in the wrong body? It's a eulogy.
3. Local H- Team (Lorde cover)
I've heard Scott Lucas cover dozens of songs in my life. Good ones, bad ones, it doesn't matter. Coming out of him and his drummer, or just him with an acoustic guitar, they all sound incredible. This song is the reason I had to include the word "Almost" in my entry for #8 this year. This song melts faces, takes names, then gives those names to other people. Whose faces it then melts. For much of the year, I had this one holding the top spot. My current working theory is that Scott's from the future, wrote "Team", then gave it to Lourde so he could cover it. Think about it. Who has more right to say "I'm kinda over getting told to throw my hands up in the air": a 44 year old kinda-famous rocker from Zion, IL, or a precocious 18 year old from New Zealand (Or possibly Randy Marsh)? Yeah. I thought so.
2. The Gaslight Anthem- Mama's Boys
I've made a lot of mistakes in my life, but every now and then I'm just the victim of really bad timing. In April, I decided to give up binge drinking. I swore off liquor, stopped keeping beer in the house, and started drinking only when I went out, usually at concerts. So what happens in August? That's right, the greatest cry-in-your-beer song of all time is released as a bonus track on the new Gaslight Anthem album. And I'm never drunk enough to fully appreciate it. Like "Team", this is another one that held the top spot on this list, basically from its release on August 19th through to today. But it's not the winner. It can't be. Not this year.
1. Against Me!- Paralytic States
We wrap up 2014 in music with the penultimate track of Transgender Dysphoria Blues, the part of the story right before "Black Me Out", the part that puts us in the shoes of that transsexual prostitute on New Year's Eve as she loses her battle with gender dysphoria in a cheap motel room. The song is bone-chillingly terrifying to me, especially the verse that begins "Nighttime at the hotel...". I've listened to this song and every other song on TDB probably a hundred or more times this year, but "Paralytic States" never gets any easier to listen to, never loses any of its impact. I don't think it ever will. Typing those last two sentences convinced me that, with apologies to Local H and The Gaslight Anthem, this was my number one song of the year from the first listen. Nothing else ever really stood a chance.
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