Last time, I did the easy job of picking the teams that improved the most- and the least- for the coming season. It was an exercise in objectivity, mostly using WAR and a standard age curve to figure out who addressed their weaknesses and who created new ones. Today's post is more opinion than fact. Still using my posts from over the winter as a baseline, I'm going to pick five teams who look like they're on a good path for 2015 and beyond, and five that don't. Let's do it.
The Big-Picture Winners
1. Atlanta Braves. The award for best performance by an executive in the 2014-15 offseason goes to John Hart, Atlanta Braves. With two very good outfielders approaching free agency, with an offense that never clicked in 2014, and with the division rival Nationals building a superteam, Hart chose to restock the farm system rather than patch holes and chase a wild-card berth. At some point he'll have to trade pitching for hitting, because the 2015 Braves project to have a terrible offense and most of the top prospects he acquired were pitchers. But in the long run, it's far better to have the farm system than getting one more year out of Jason Heyward and Justin Upton on a .500-ish team. My favorite move: the 4-for-2 trade that sent Upton to the Padres and top pitching prospect Max Fried to Atlanta along with three potentially useful position players.
2. Chicago Cubs. This is an easy choice, but it's also a correct one. The Cubs still have their near-infinite supply of talented young infielders intact, and Lester and Montero are the first proof that the organization is again a big-market, first division bully. There's no reason to think Theo won't do exactly what he did in Boston: create a player development pipeline that ranks among the best in baseball, and throw huge free agent signings and marquee trades on top of it to create a juggernaut. I'm not the type to get carried away with a highly-rated farm system, as every one of these players could bust. But I read and listen to a lot of people, and I haven't heard an unkind word about Kris Bryant or Addison Russell. This might really happen- not in 2015, but I could see 2016 being a good year for Cub fans. My favorite move by the Cubs was really all the non-moves that kept Russell, Bryant, and the rest in the organization. My favorite thing they did act on was probably the Hammel contract.
3. Toronto Blue Jays. While the two previous entries on this list have their focus on the future to some extent, Toronto is in a fascinatingly aggressive win-now mode. Ownership and the front office are going hard in trying to end the longest playoff drought in baseball. They didn't really have a choice after the 2012-13 trades took big bites out of their farm system and left them with a team that wasn't quite good enough, but for 2015, only one team can say they added two of the 20 best players in baseball this winter. Donaldson and Martin really are that good. The pitching is dicey, especially after the Stroman injury, but Martin might help some with that. Every team in the AL East has big questions, and at least the Jays go into the season knowing they'll be able to outscore anybody. Other than the two teams to which I have emotional attachments, Toronto is the team that excites me the most for 2015. It's hard to choose between the two major additions as my favorite, but the Donaldson trade is higher on the list of hottest Hot Stove moves of the winter, so I'll go with that.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers. Nothing like being the rich team that poaches front-office talent from the smart teams. In a post about franchise direction, I don't think you can get any better than going from Ned Coletti to Andrew Friedman. Picking up a shiny new middle infield was costly, but great for 2015. Finding a taker for Matt Kemp's contract seems good, and getting a player of Yasmani Grandal's caliber in return seems even better. The trade with the Marlins, my pick for best Dodgers move and possibly the best move all winter, was a sweet purchase of controllable talent. Instead of taking on the unwieldy contracts of fading players as they did three years ago, they're getting rid of those contracts and making room for promotions from an elite farm system. It's a great time to be a Dodgers fan.
5. Chicago White Sox. I've gushed over Rick Hahn enough for one winter. Suffice to say the Sox were heading into the winter on an upswing and Hahn pressed fast-forward on the rebuild. The most striking aspect of their offseason, to me, was that every move seemed like the exact right player at the exact right time. Adam LaRoche? An improvement on the Dunn/Konerko mess of 2014. Melky Cabrera? A reason to stop talking about Dayan Viciedo forever. Robertson and Duke? Well, a good team needs relievers who don't come in and set fires every night. And finally, my favorite move, trading for Jeff Samardzija without giving up a single player most Sox fans will miss. I'm not yet sure what my predictions are, but if you wanted to tell me the Sox are the best team in the four-team AL Central scrum, I wouldn't argue too hard.
The Big-Picture Losers
1. Kansas City Royals. That old Myers-for-Shields trade worked out better than anyone could have predicted, but it also shifted the Royals' focus from future to present, hence the signing of players like Alex Rios and Edinson Volquez. Maybe they'll pull a Pirates and become a sustainable winner. I don't know. But they weren't Pittsburgh good in 2014, they don't have a Gerrit Cole and a Gregory Polanco to call up, and they haven't snagged a fringe MVP candidate on a laughable bargain of a free-agent deal. Going downhill feels a lot more likely than the opposite. That's not to say it wasn't worth it for one incredible run, as any Royals fan will tell you, but the question of "What happens next?" is a tough one to answer. Maybe nothing Dayton Moore did this winter could have prevented this, but losing Nori Aoki at a bargain price and cutting Billy Butler sure didn't help.
2. Detroit Tigers. When the Tigers started this run atop the AL Central, they had enough of a minor league system to get Miguel Cabrera in trade. Nine years and two AL Pennants later, the same scorched-earth tactics have them settling for Alfredo Simon, Shane Greene, and Yoenis Cespedes as reinforcements. The team's future as a Phillies-esque mess looks inevitable; the only question is if they get another year or two out of this group before the returns diminish to zero and Mike Ilitch finds his spending limit. None of their winter moves inspire a ton of confidence, the trade for Simon being the worst of the lot.
3. San Francisco Giants. The Giants are once again on their way from World Series champs to missing the playoffs, but this time we have an explanation: They're losing half their power and sticking with old and/or injured starting pitchers, while not drafting well enough to promote or trade for replacements. Seeing as something like this happens every winter in San Francisco, explaining three titles in five years is not a task I'm up to. The non-moves are worse than the moves in this case, but picking up Casey McGehee as Pablo Sandoval's replacement seems the most certain to fail.
4. Boston Red Sox. Boston did a little bit of the same thing San Diego did this winter- getting good hitters whether they have a place for them or not. There are problems with both of those moves: Sandoval is on the downside of his career and will be overpaid immediately, and Hanley Ramirez isn't a left fielder. That's not what puts Boston on this list, though. It's that they needed pitchers to replace Lester and Lackey and they came up with a collection of guys with low ceilings and low floors. Both the Jays and the Sox are trying to win with offense this year, and yet the pitching staff I like better is the one that wasn't revamped via trades and free agency this winter. As evidence, I submit trading two young starting pitchers with upside to Arizona for one young starting pitcher without upside.
5. Colorado Rockies. Meet the new boss (Jeff Bridich), same as the old boss (Dan O'Dowd). I could have picked a lot of teams that failed to move the needle this winter- the Mets and the Rangers come to mind- but Rockies hopelessness is deeper and more pervasive than any other team because everything except the guy in charge stayed exactly the same. The Daniel Descalso contract was the only obvious misstep in an otherwise too-quiet offseason.
And with that, we'll close the book on the winter and look forward to some spring predictions coming soon.
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