The snow is almost entirely gone, and that means it's spring. A time for fans of every baseball team to think, just for a month or two, that this will be the year that their team will be the one who stays healthy, gets lucky, and plays their best ball in October. I'm here to say how that can happen, and why it probably won't. I'm doing the divisions in random order, followed by an awards and playoff picks post, and I'm going to try to knock these out pretty quick. I've spent five months thinking about this, so the hard part's over. And now, your American League East predictions.
First place: Toronto Blue Jays
2014 record: 83-79 (Third place)
Offseason grade: A
Everyone knows that winning the winter doesn't mean you win the next season. But in this division, where every team has a pretty good best-case scenario and a rough worst-case, over-analysis can lead to rotating five teams through five spots ad nauseam. So this is Occam's Razor's prediction: The Jays had a winning record last year, they traded for a top-10 player in Josh Donaldson, and they signed a top-20 player in Russell Martin. They're gonna be good. If any team runs away and hides in this division, it'll be them.
How it could all go right: The Martin acquisition means Mark Buerhle and R.A. Dickey have throwback years while Daniel Norris and/or Aaron Sanchez make a smooth transition to the major league rotation. The lineup meets expectations led by MVP-caliber years from Joey Bats, Donaldson, and Martin. The AL East is wrapped up by Labor Day.
How it could all go wrong: The old starters are done and the young starters aren't ready, taxing depth that isn't really there. Multiple position players have major injuries. No money is left to patch holes either this summer or next winter. The Jays finish in fourth place, refuse to bail on any of their tradeable big contracts for one year too many, and get stuck in expensive-mediocre limbo.
Second place: Baltimore Orioles
2014 record: 96-66 (First place; won ALDS vs. Detroit, lost ALCS vs. Kansas City)
Offseason grade: C
The O's bring back most of the team that confounded the stats and cruised to an AL East crown in 2014. They got there without big contributions from a few injured core players- Manny Machado, Matt Wieters, and Dylan Bundy- all of whom are expected back for 2015. The big question is how those players rebound, as well as Chris Davis, who went from slashing .286/.370/.634 in 2013 to .196/.300/.404 in 2014. Without 2014 home run champ Nelson Cruz around, all of those players will need to contribute.
How it could all go right: Machado stays healthy, Davis looks more like an MVP than a scrub, Bundy and Kevin Gausman take the majors by storm, and the O's repeat as AL East champs. Dan Duquette's winter of hand-sitting and job-waffling is vindicated.
How it could all go wrong: Davis proves to be washed up. Machado gets seriously injured for the third year in a row. Ubaldo Jimenez's services are required in the rotation. Even then, I think the O's have the highest floor of any team in the division. Let's say 76 wins and fourth place.
Third place: Boston Red Sox
2014 record: 71-91 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: D
I'm so consistently wrong on the Red Sox, I'm putting them right in the middle so I won't be too far off. Like the Jays, the Red Sox come into 2015 with a murderer's row lineup and a pitching staff that asks more questions than it answers. Unlike the Jays, the Sox 's lineup relies on both the old (Ortiz, Napoli) and the young (Betts, Bogaerts, Vazquez) while nobody in the rotation seems like a good bet to provide both innings and quality.
How it could all go right: Betts lives up to the incredible hype. Ortiz refuses to age. They get the good Panda and the good Hanley. The rotation turns out to be a bunch of twos and threes instead of fours and fives. They manage to get a true ace via trade over the summer. Boston pulls off the incredibly awesome worst-first-worst-first feat and we accept that we're living in an era where the Red Sox and the Giants are the only teams allowed to win the World Series.
How it could all go wrong: Ortiz finally falls off the age cliff. Bogaerts fails to develop, moving Hanley to shortstop and ruining the defense. Betts doesn't adjust after the league got to watch tape of him all winter. Masterson, Miley, Buchholz, and Kelly pitch like their track records suggest they will. The Sox are more expensive than they were in 2014, but no better.
Fourth place: Tampa Bay Rays
2014 record: 77-85 (Fourth place)
Offseason grade: C+
The Rays went for it in 2014 and fell apart, but when you're the Rays, "going for it" just means keeping your team together. They didn't make the same mistake heading into this year: In addition to losing manager Joe Maddon and front office boss Andrew Friedman to free agency, they traded away half their starting lineup, with much of the value coming back their way in the form of prospects. Factor in last July's David Price trade, and the Rays are in the midst of their biggest rebuild since their 2008 ascension.
How it could all go right: Matt Moore returns to join Chris Archer and Alex Cobb at the head of the AL's best starting rotation. The bullpen's Jep-in-the-Box is every bit as good as Jake-in-the-Box was in 2014. Asdrubal Cabrera and Steven Souza defy the scouts while Nick Franklin justifies the hype, and the Rays have a lineup of MVP-level Longoria and eight unexciting but capable players. Things don't go well in Toronto, Baltimore, or Boston and Tampa Bay takes the division with something like 87 wins.
How it could all go wrong: Longoria gets hurt and the team suffers a season-long power outage. Injuries to Cobb and Archer expose a minor league system that is still in the early stages of its recovery. The Rays flirt with 100 losses.
Fifth place: New York Yankees
2014 record: 83-79 (Third place)
Offseason grade: B-
With massive untradeable contracts to the likes of Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and Alex Rodriguez tying his hands, I'd say GM Brian Cashman did well to add two young, talented pieces to the roster in Nate Eovaldi and Didi Gregorius while also replenishing the bullpen with three good arms. Some might say it's an impossible task to contend with three $20M+ players contributing little to nothing, and as this ranking attests, I'm one of those some.
How it could all go right: Sabathia, A-Rod, and Teixeira have three of the most unlikely comebacks of all time, with A-Rod reinvented as a part-time DH, part-time third baseman, full-time extra hitting coach and great teammate. Chase Headley recalls his 2012 brush with greatness and makes a run at the MVP award. Michael Pineda's arm is functional for 32 starts. Masahiro Tanaka becomes the poster boy for rest and rehab over Tommy John surgery and wins the Cy Young. Every other team in the division craters and the Yankees win the AL East with a win total in the high 80's.
How it could all go wrong: "Everybody still hates A-Rod" is the only Yankees news all year, except for the day Tanaka fully tears his ligament and the day Pineda's arm literally falls off. The pitching staff is one of the worst in history. The Yanks go wire to wire in the basement and the Phillies are no longer the only choice for "biggest mess of a major league franchise".
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