Today, the D6 of baseball justice has decreed that we move on to the division of Mike Trout, Felix Hernandez, and Marcus Semien: The AL West.
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2014 record: 98-64 (First place. Lost to Kansas City in ALDS.)
Offseason grade: B
Last year, I wrote how Mike Trout can't carry an entire team of underachieving veterans. Not only was that wrong- Mike Trout can do anything he wants- but Albert Pujols and the rest of this expensive veteran club shook off some rust and ran away with the division. They'll look to repeat without second baseman Howie Kendrick, leaving the position up to waiver wire bingo. The emergence of Matt Shoemaker and Garrett Richards in 2014, plus the addition of two more good young arms this winter, means the pitching looks better and deeper than it has in a long time.
How it could all go right: Basically a repeat of the 2014 regular season, with Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano playing the roles of Shoemaker and Richards. They also find an answer at second base from among Josh Rutledge, Taylor Featherston, and the trade market. The Angels beat up on their division rivals and again make a run at 100 wins.
How it could all go wrong: Trout gets kidnapped by Russian mobsters, and Shoemaker and Heaney miss the season attempting an elaborate rescue. Pujols runs out of gas for good. Richards struggles to return from knee surgery. Josh Hamilton remains a story all season. The bullpen combusts, costing the young starting pitchers both wins and confidence.
2. Seattle Mariners
2014 record: 87-75 (Third place)
Offseason grade: C-
Seattle's one of the hottest picks for 2015, and I get it. You add a serviceable DH and right field platoon to a team that nearly made the playoffs in 2014 and it's easy to get optimistic. Still, there's too many weak points in every area for me to expect the M's to make their long-awaited return to October baseball. Logan Morrison, Austin Jackson, and Dustin Ackley are all slated to be everyday players, J.A. Happ is in the rotation, and the bullpen is subject to the same volatility as every other team. I barely see a .500 team here, but as the rest of the division looks even worse, I have no choice but to pick Seattle to finish second.
How it could all go right: Jackson remembers he used to be good at baseball. The Paxton/Walker/Hultzen troika of young pitchers do good work behind Felix and Iwakuma. The addition of veteran hitters has a positive effect on Mike Zunino, Brad Miller, and Ackley. The Mariners ride their dominant starting pitching to a division title.
How it could all go wrong: Ackley and Morrison are so bad the team cuts bait on them by the All-Star break. Iwakuma shows his age. Walker and Paxton aren't ready for the show, and Hultzen gets injured again. Jack Z gives up too much in a trade for a rent-a-pitcher. Nelson Cruz's power doesn't play at Safeco. Really, every player on this team has a bleak and realistic worst case. That's part of why I don't love them this year.
3. Houston Astros
2014 record: 70-92 (Fourth place)
Offseason grade: B
The Astros are still in the midst of their rebuild, but this winter gave us our first look at Jeff Luhnow's plan for the major league team: Strikeouts are fine as long as when you hit the ball, it goes far. Newcomers Evan Gattis and Colby Rasmus join Chris Carter, George Springer, and maybe eventually Jonathan Singleton in a lineup that could be devastating one day and hopeless the next. With 2014 breakout stars Colin McHugh and Dallas Keuchel fronting the rotation, there's reason to think the 'Stros won't have to win every game 10-8. For the moment, the biggest variable is if Dan Straily, Sam Deduno, and Brad Peacock are good enough to win on those days when the offense isn't quite there.
How it could all go right: Gattis and Springer learn a little plate discipline, adding a non-hacker element to the offense. Last year's best pitchers follow up on their 2014 success, enough of the mid-20's fringe prospect options make good in the rotation, and Houston slugs its way to a 90-win season and a Wild Card appearance.
How it could all go wrong: The offense is a joke, with enough swing-and-miss to make average opponents look like peak Pedro. This has a negative effect on George Springer's development and he starts to look more like Javier Baez than Giancarlo Stanton. Mark Appel has another frustrating year of stalled development. McHugh and/or Keuchel prove to be one-year wonders. Despite the cost, both in money and minor league talent, the team fails to capitalize on the previous year's improvements and Jeff Luhnow finds himself on the wobbly chair.
4. Oakland Athletics
2014 record: 88-74 (Second place. Lost Wild Card game to Kansas City.)
Offseason grade: Incomplete
People like me love to make a big deal out of Billy Beane, as if he's cracked the code on building baseball teams. Something about this offseason felt different in that respect. In a blistering series of trades, he got rid of big names like Samardzija and Donaldson, but also brought back a Zobrist here and a Butler there along with the usual supply of prospects. Prospects to replace the well-regarded ones Beane traded to Chicago and Tampa Bay. The whole thing makes me feel like if there was an extra month of winter, the roster could have easily been shuffled once again. But when the music stopped, we were looking at some really surprising names on this A's roster. As many times as we've seen this, you'd think I would have learned my lesson by now, but I haven't: I don't see it happening in Oakland this year.
How it could all go right: Ben Zobrist redefines the term "super-utility man" and has a season that literally defies quantification. Bob Melvin finds three reliable arms from amongst the recently promoted and the injury comebacks to join Gray and Kazmir. The defense improves all over the diamond. The offense finds a way to recover from losing Cespedes and Donaldson in the span of a year and the A's snag a Wild Card spot.
How it could all go wrong: There's a nonzero chance that this team won't do anything well. Offense, defense, starting pitching, relief, it could all blow up. That's the risk you take when you turn over half your roster in the span of three months. It's either a magnificent, awe-inspiring experiment, or the random flailings of a justifiably frustrated baseball boss. Beane knows his business better than I ever will, and I don't know for sure that he made a mistake, but the combination of the Donaldson trade and the Zobrist trade has me utterly baffled. The offseason makes a lot more sense if only one of those trades happens, doesn't it?
5. Texas Rangers
2014 record: 67-95 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: D
The Rangers entered the winter uncertain of how good their team really was, and it showed. That Jon Daniels didn't move Beltre or Darvish suggests he thought they were good enough to win, but that his big additions were Ross Detwiler and Yovani Gallardo suggests there wasn't a ton of leeway in terms of money or farm system depth. It's a tough situation, and it's not really any one person's fault that the entire Rangers roster got seriously injured in 2014. But when you bring back the same group for another go-round and Darvish blows out his elbow in spring training, it just isn't as surprising as it should be.
How it could all go right: The onslaught of "out for season"s ends with Darvish and Profar. Choo and Fielder make up for their absence in 2014 by getting on base and hitting baseballs a long way. Somebody trades them some elite young pitching for Beltre at the deadline. The win-loss record is merely bad, and not horrific.
How it could all go wrong: A total redux of last season, except with Gallardo and Detwiler, there's two more pitching careers to ruin.
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