Chicago White Sox: Well, at least they didn't give players away like the Marlins. The whole AL Wild Card race is a morass of flawed teams, and it intrigues me that the Sox are part of it. Not a big part, though, because the offense is nonexistent. One could hope for Jose Abreu to catch fire for two months, and for guys like Alexei and Melky to get some positive regression. One could hope for their front four starters to lock in like the 2005 group. But with all the teams they'd have to pass to make it into the one-game series, as bad as those teams are, two of them are bound to have hot streaks that give them some separation. I think the Sox already had their streak, and they peaked at .500. So I'm disappointed, because I thought this was a good team in March, but I didn't want or expect a major selloff at the deadline. I'm sure Shark could have gotten more than a draft pick's worth of talent in a trade, but then we wouldn't have this ridiculous, laughable, but not completely stupid hope that he could start a playoff game. I still trust Rick Hahn to make good decisions, and when we end this season with somewhere between 77-81 wins, he'll get to work and I'll still care. But this whole season has been a big ball of meh.
Cleveland Indians: They decided against making the big move, trading away someone like the slumping Carlos Santana or the amazing Carlos Carrasco, and parted with a couple other minor pieces for minor returns. Rob Kaminsky, acquired from the Cardinals for Brandon Moss, looks like the big prize. It's worth noting, however, that a number of the Indians' best players were acquired as minor returns in minor trades. Finding the Yan Gomeses and Corey Klubers of the world is this front office's best skill. This year has sucked out loud for Cleveland, but for all we know Eric Stamets, the double-A shortstop the Angels gave up for David Murphy, is going to become a star. And with controllable, quality pitching depth, bona fide guys like Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley in the lineup, and the arrival of top prospect Francisco Lindor, it never feels like this team is more than a mid-level upgrade away from contending. Once the Bourn and Swisher contracts stop smothering this small-market franchise after the 2016 season, they might even be able to make that upgrade.
Detroit Tigers: Remember what I said about the morass of flawed teams going for the Wild Card? The Tigers were probably the best of those teams even if they did absolutely nothing, and they decided to White Flag it instead, cashing in David Price, Joakim Soria, and Yoenis Cespedes for prospects. To be fair, every one of those deals returned more prospect value than should have been expected, and few teams needed a farm system rejuvenation as much as the Tigers. On a personal level, I'm delighted, because it means I got one team out of five right in my AL Central predictions and I always like to see titans fall. And standing pat or trading for more help could definitely have been a waste, as the upside was making it to a one-game playoff. So yes, there's a strong argument to be made that this was the right call. It's just not an argument I would give half a crap about if I were a Tigers fan. The one-game playoff would be against an inferior team. And more importantly, the Tigers had already pushed almost all their chips into the pot. They'd bet, raised, and called until there was a huge pile of money in the middle, then they folded instead of putting their last five bucks in. If the rest of the team could manage to stay afloat while Miguel Cabrera healed up, they'd be looking at a stretch run with an ace, a solid closer, a still-fearsome middle of the lineup, and they'd be chasing some just-barely-better-than-average teams in Baltimore, Toronto, Anaheim, and Minnesota. The Detroit Tigers, four-time defending champions of the AL Central, property of Mike "Win me a World Series before I die" Ilitch, looked up at the Twins and the Angels and decided to pack it in. If I were a Tigers fan, I don't think I'd be able to talk about this, much less write about it.
Kansas City Royals: With the Royals, we might be facing the most important three months of baseball for any team in my lifetime. Think I'm exaggerating? I'm not. By trading for Cueto and Zobrist- both costly additions, but also perfect fits for the team- this is the real definition of all-in. They were going to win the division anyway, but now, rings are the thing. Maybe a return to the World Series will be enough. If they succeed, maybe the fans will come back en masse, maybe the Glass family will spend some pittance of their enormous wealth to keep the team's payroll and roster respectable, and maybe Dayton Moore will preside over the most complete and lasting franchise turnaround since Andrew Friedman fixed the Rays. IF they succeed. If they fail, there are no maybes, there are just truths. The Glass family will enact some version of the Jeffrey Loria doctrine: "We spent $100M and didn't win, so we might as well spend $40M and not win." Moore will spin this as "We were overextended with our payroll and we needed to get it back in line with our market size." The Process, as it used to be derisively referred to and is now respected as a real thing, will have to start all over again. The Royals will lose free agent Alex Gordon along with Zobrist and Cueto. Their aging roster and depleted farm system will require a trade of one or more of their core position players to make payroll and undo some of the damage the system sustained this July. In short, Kansas City's renaissance as a baseball town could last a mere 15 months. No pressure, Johnny. And remember, kids, it doesn't matter if the billionaire behind Wal-Mart owns your team. It doesn't matter that revenue sharing and bloated TV deals mean that every owner is making money. The amount of money spent on your team is all about how many people live in your town. For Royals fans, I offer the same advice I give myself every day I wake up cancer-free and moderately sane: Enjoy it while it lasts.
Minnesota Twins: They traded a couple young pitching prospects for Kevin Jepsen, a quality setup man and potential insurance against a Glen Perkins injury. OK, fine. Terry Ryan addressed one of the Twins' weaknesses without committing to the team's tenuous hold on a Wild Card spot. Obviously any fanbase would get fired up over an unexpected playoff berth, but I think Twins fans know that next year isn't here. Staying in the Wild Card race and getting above .500 in 2015 is enough to build some positive momentum for 2016, which should be the first full seasons for superstars-in-waiting Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. The organization still lacks high-ceiling arms, and settling for cheaper, non-strikeout-oriented pitchers is a bad habit that will only make it harder for this team to ascend. If they do find a way to pick up an ace this winter, they could definitely contend again, but next time it won't be a mirage. The only way I would have bought into the 2015 Twins is if they'd jumped the gun a little and brought in someone from the Price/Hamels/Cueto class, but those blockbuster buys have never been the Twins' DNA. It's for the best, anyway. The less emphasis you put on this year's stretch run, the happier you'll be as a Twins fan.
Monday, August 3, 2015
Sunday, August 2, 2015
State of the Franchises: AL West
Houston Astros: The most important thing I can note about the Astros is that it's 2015 and they have the second-best record in the American League. They're well ahead of schedule on the rebuild in both lineup depth and pitching adequacy, so they're basically a World Series contender right now. That's going to be enough for a lot of Astros fans. If we're looking for downsides, here's one: Was Jeff Luhnow too aggressive at the deadline? Brett Phillips, Jacob Nottingham, and Domingo Santana were some of the highlights of their deep reserves of minor league talent, and now they're gone. As always with prospects, we won't know for years, but the team's top-heavy and talent-heavy 2015 draft might have replenished the system before it was even depleted. Back to the present, Scott Kazmir and Carlos Gomez make the Astros one of the short-term winners of the deadline, and nobody should be surprised if they run away and hide in the West. Even if they lose these trades with years of hindsight, they look pretty tough right now and there's still a lot of talent in the minors. I'd take that deal.
Los Angeles Angels of The Red Team: Bill Stoneman picked up three spare-part outfielders to replace the ones who helped drag the Angels toward the bottom of the AL in offense, despite the presence of Mike Trout and a surprisingly dangerous Albert Pujols. Mike Scioscia has more options now than he did a couple weeks ago. It's just far from a sure thing that David Murphy, David DeJesus, and Shane Victorino are actually upgrades on the Matt Joyce/C.J. Cron Krappenfest Angels fans have been treated to for 100 games. They're just the outfielders who were available to bargain shoppers. Also, it's not Stoneman's fault that C.J. Wilson might miss the rest of the season, but since he didn't add any pitching it's now essential that Hector Santiago continues his stellar breakout year and Jered Weaver contributes. There are plenty of teams in the Wild Card race, and the Angels (and Twins, but we'll get to that) have to look vulnerable to any of the six teams clustered around .500. However, they still have Mike Trout and a pretty nice collection of young arms, so this isn't really a do-or-die year for them.
Oakland Athletics: They didn't look good going into 2015, they met only the lowest expectations, and now Billy Beane is talking about going the way of the Astros and Cubs. That's a pretty big bummer. I guess their deadline haul, scoring the aforementioned Nottingham along with Sean Manaea and Casey Meisner, is a silver lining. But if Beane is willing to take a step back, we need to do the same. The highwire act of simultaneously contending and rebuilding ended the moment Josh Donaldson was traded. Maybe even before that- was it the Samardzija trade that broke the cycle? No matter. Now they're just another low-payroll team with other teams gearing up for the Sonny Gray sweepstakes to begin. Sorry about that, A's fans. But you know what, you've had it pretty good for a while now. So I'm not that sorry.
Seattle Mariners: The M's are going nowhere fast, and didn't trade anybody good enough to bring back a notable return. Is this the new most boring team in baseball? With Felix, Cano, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz all locked up for at least another few years, the M's have been sending signals of contention for a while, but the rest of the major league roster begs to differ. At least being bad means they've had high draft picks and a deep minor league system, right? Um, nope, not so much. Last year's apparently legit run at the postseason masked all kinds of flaws and made people much smarter than me buy in, but a year later, those predictions look incredibly off base. I even said in my season preview I wasn't crazy about Seattle and there were infinite ways it could all go wrong, and I STILL picked them for a Wild Card. Now I don't remember what any of us were thinking. It's not my call, nor should it be, but GMs have been fired for less than what Jack Zduriencik's perpetrated here. The coming years aren't likely to be a whole lot better than this one.
Texas Rangers: Can a team trade away three high-end prospects in July, miss the playoffs, and still have the season be a success? That's what we're looking at with the Rangers. The Cole Hamels acquisition could help them sneak into a Wild Card game this year but the trade was really about 2016 and beyond, when the Rangers hope Yu Darvish will be back atop the rotation and Jurickson Profar will resume his long-delayed ascent to stardom. It's a fascinating trade for that reason alone: we can't even begin to evaluate it until Hamels's contract is up in three or four years. I have my doubts about the value he brings to this team. Even with Philadelphia paying down Hamels' salary, we have to wonder how much money will be available to augment a core of position players that is more salary and reputation than production these days. If you believe in the Rangers, it means you believe in guys like Josh Hamilton, Shin-Soo Choo, and Prince Fielder. It means you believe giving Darvish a 1-A in Hamels was the missing piece of the puzzle. I'm always happy to be surprised, but I don't believe in any of that. Even though the Hamels trade was great value in a vacuum, it might not end up as more than a waste of minor league talent.
Oakland Athletics: They didn't look good going into 2015, they met only the lowest expectations, and now Billy Beane is talking about going the way of the Astros and Cubs. That's a pretty big bummer. I guess their deadline haul, scoring the aforementioned Nottingham along with Sean Manaea and Casey Meisner, is a silver lining. But if Beane is willing to take a step back, we need to do the same. The highwire act of simultaneously contending and rebuilding ended the moment Josh Donaldson was traded. Maybe even before that- was it the Samardzija trade that broke the cycle? No matter. Now they're just another low-payroll team with other teams gearing up for the Sonny Gray sweepstakes to begin. Sorry about that, A's fans. But you know what, you've had it pretty good for a while now. So I'm not that sorry.
Seattle Mariners: The M's are going nowhere fast, and didn't trade anybody good enough to bring back a notable return. Is this the new most boring team in baseball? With Felix, Cano, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz all locked up for at least another few years, the M's have been sending signals of contention for a while, but the rest of the major league roster begs to differ. At least being bad means they've had high draft picks and a deep minor league system, right? Um, nope, not so much. Last year's apparently legit run at the postseason masked all kinds of flaws and made people much smarter than me buy in, but a year later, those predictions look incredibly off base. I even said in my season preview I wasn't crazy about Seattle and there were infinite ways it could all go wrong, and I STILL picked them for a Wild Card. Now I don't remember what any of us were thinking. It's not my call, nor should it be, but GMs have been fired for less than what Jack Zduriencik's perpetrated here. The coming years aren't likely to be a whole lot better than this one.
Texas Rangers: Can a team trade away three high-end prospects in July, miss the playoffs, and still have the season be a success? That's what we're looking at with the Rangers. The Cole Hamels acquisition could help them sneak into a Wild Card game this year but the trade was really about 2016 and beyond, when the Rangers hope Yu Darvish will be back atop the rotation and Jurickson Profar will resume his long-delayed ascent to stardom. It's a fascinating trade for that reason alone: we can't even begin to evaluate it until Hamels's contract is up in three or four years. I have my doubts about the value he brings to this team. Even with Philadelphia paying down Hamels' salary, we have to wonder how much money will be available to augment a core of position players that is more salary and reputation than production these days. If you believe in the Rangers, it means you believe in guys like Josh Hamilton, Shin-Soo Choo, and Prince Fielder. It means you believe giving Darvish a 1-A in Hamels was the missing piece of the puzzle. I'm always happy to be surprised, but I don't believe in any of that. Even though the Hamels trade was great value in a vacuum, it might not end up as more than a waste of minor league talent.
Saturday, August 1, 2015
State of the Franchises: NL East
Atlanta Braves: Trading useful short-term assets Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson for two interesting arms is in keeping with the John Hart plan of making sure nobody but the Braves has any pitching in five years. That's fine. But their role in the Dodgers/Marlins megatrade makes even less sense today than it did yesterday, as it's been reported that Atlanta is still paying the nearly $10M owed to Bronson Arroyo. So Hart must really, really like Hector Olivera, because he essentially gave up Alex Wood, Jose Peraza, and Jim Johnson for Olivera, prospect Zach Bird, and a draft pick from Miami. I've sung Hart's praises in this space before, but I don't get this one at all on a short or long term level. If I rooted for the Braves this would confuse and disappoint me, but Hart would have the benefit of my doubt. He's made so many great moves, maybe this one turns out fine. No idea how, but there's always a chance.
Miami Marlins: One of my favorite fantasies is to pretend I own the Marlins. And every time they make a signature Jeffrey Loria move- like giving away Mat Latos just to dump Michael Morse's contract- I say to myself, "OK, I'll take over the team tomorrow." The reality of the Marlins and their owner is nothing less than the opposite of my fondest dreams. Their other deadline trades weren't so bad: Ivan Pineyro, the pitching prospect acquired in exchange for Dan Haren, has some upside. Catcher Tomas Telis was a surprisingly strong return for reliever Sam Dyson. And I have no real problem with dumping Steve Cishek on the Cardinals. But the yo-yo of building and tearing down in Miami is the same embarrassment it's always been. Sell the team, Jeffrey Loria. Please. I want my team of choice- as opposed to my White Sox fandom, which is an inherited trait- to act like a real major league franchise and not a fantasy team run by a guy who sucks at fantasy. If I owned the team, I would pick a direction and stick with it instead of these half-assed attempts to contend that undo all the work of building a farm system. I would also bring back the teal and black. I would use the current uniform design, but replace the "technicolor barfbag" palette with the old colors. I might add a little gold accent in place of the silver in the following picture, but that's all. The team would win and look good doing it. I'm the Everlasting Dave, and I approve this message.
New York Mets: As I said in my trade suggestions post, one big bat wasn't going to solve the Mets' offensive woes. But two league-average players in Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe, plus dynamic outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, fit the bill quite nicely. Hit with the year-long Jenrry Mejia suspension, they also went out and got reliever Tyler Clippard to fill the void. They gave up some prospect depth in each deal, but not from the very top of the system. Just fair prices for necessary upgrades. Am I crazy to think they're lucky the Carlos Gomez trade was scuttled? Zach Wheeler is such a big piece, and they added some lineup depth while keeping their injured, controllable number 2 starter in their back pocket for 2016. Among the three rebuilt teams who found success a year early, I think the Mets hit a sweet spot in supporting a playoff run without compromising the future. The Astros moved much more aggressively, giving up high-end guys as well as depth to push for the division title, while the Cubs did little more than sit on their hands. If I were a Mets fan, I don't think I would have wanted anything more or less than what they did this July. I also think my faith in Sandy Alderson would be at an all-time high.
Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies finally caught up to rebuilding expectations this July. It started with clearing Jonathan Papelbon's salary while bringing back an OK prospect. Then the long-awaited Cole Hamels blockbuster finally went down, with both quantity (Six players) and quality (Three of them top 100 prospects) coming back from Texas. Finally, they snagged two relief prospects from the Jays for slap-hitting outfielder Ben Revere. With this influx of young talent joining the fruits of three consecutive good drafts, the Phillies skipped right over the "signs of life in the minors" stage of rebuilding to the "collection of promising young talent" phase, with a solid six players in MLB.com's current top 100 prospects list. The major league team will be bad for at least another couple years, but that just means more high draft picks like the ones that netted J.P. Crawford, Aaron Nola, and Cornelius Randolph and more international bonus pool money they can use to find more Maikel Francos. And once enough of them make it to the show, there's no doubt the Phillies will swing the money hammer, just as they have over the past eight years. This renewed commitment to player development is the corpse reviver every Phillies fan needs after the 2013-14 hangover. It doesn't measure up to being a great team for five years, as they so recently were, but watching the pieces fall into place is its own kind of exciting. Just as long as you trust the architects.
Washington Nationals: The Nationals have had some bad injury luck this season, but they're still leading the division and approaching full health as we head into the home stretch. Joe Ross has been outstanding as Stephen Strasburg's replacement, and Clint Robinson has racked up a .349 OBP filling in for Denard Span and Jayson Werth. Tough to complain about that. They also added Jonathan Papelbon, possibly the best reliever traded at the deadline, moving Drew Storen back to his old setup man job. Nats fans can only hope that health and luck are on their side come October, because there's not much more Mike Rizzo and the Lerner family can do. This is a win-now team that's going to have to answer some tough questions after the season, but if Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer can bring this franchise its first title in October that'll take the edge off. High expectations come with this much talent, and Harper of all people sets a fine example for how to handle them. If I were a Nationals fan I would be supremely confident in my team's ability to hold off the Mets in the regular season, and I would just have to wait and hope they can get lucky against the Cardinals, Dodgers, or any Wild Card upstarts in the playoffs. Harper the likely MVP, Max Scherzer and an outstanding bullpen tandem are pretty good guys on whom to pin your hopes.
Friday, July 31, 2015
State of the Franchises: NL Central
Chicago Cubs: If Theo Epstein were Dayton Moore, this is the point where he should tell the fans to "trust the process" or something like that. Because twenty- and thirty-something Cubs fans like to pretend they've been around for the entire existence of the Billy Goat Curse. They see a team with a winning record and start talking about how long they've been waiting for a World Series, so it better happen RIGHT NOW. This nonsense is why I could never be a Cubs fan. The 2015 Cubs are a pretty good team, and they have a shot at catching the Giants or Pirates to make the Wild Card game. Renting David Price or taking a huge bite out of the farm system to get Cole Hamels just doesn't move the needle on that possibility enough. If they were neck-and-neck with the Cardinals, and adding a win here or there meant skipping the Wild Card game entirely, then sure, make a push. But as it stands, I would be a little psyched about adding Dan Haren to the back of the rotation, I would be moderately psyched that they didn't sell low on Starlin Castro, and I would still be hella psyched that the 2016 Cubs, with another big addition or two, will be ready to start breaking baseball. Of course, that's a hypothetical from the mind of this proud White Sox and Marlins fan. If I were actually a Cubs fan, I would never have bothered to learn baseball and would be cursing Theo's name for not overpaying for two months of Price.
Cincinnati Reds: Like everyone else, I had my doubts on how far the Reds would take their selloff. And given that they still have expensive and lights-out closer Aroldis Chapman on their roster, those doubts seem appropriate now. I have no qualms with the Cueto haul: Finnegan, Lamb, and another potential starting pitcher is a lot for two months of anybody. I think they did fine on Mike Leake: the Giants may have a terrible farm system, but at least they got their best guy. Were I a Reds fan, I would be moderately impressed with my team's moves right now, just as I was when they traded Alfredo Simon and Mat Latos for useful, controllable players last winter. My concern would be this: By only trading the pending free agents and nobody else, that might telegraph some really stupid intentions for the winter. There's bound to be a temptation for Castellini and Jocketty to reload instead of rebuild, to keep treating Votto, Bruce, Frazier, and Phillips as a championship-caliber core. Don't do it, dudes. Save your money and plant the seeds. Maybe they'll grow before Votto is useless.
Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers were a lot worse in the first half than I thought they'd be, but I think they handled it just fine. Sending Aramis back to the Pirates for one last playoff run is something the baseball gods will smile upon, and getting a prospect package with a real top-tier headliner for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers could wind up as a classic win-win trade. Getting anything at all for Jonathan Broxton was the capper on a solid July for Doug Melvin. I don't know if I'd be that positive if I rooted for the Brewers, though. After the illusion of a .500 season in 2014, to collapse so completely that trading Gomez made sense would be a kick in the junk. So if I were a Brewers fan, I would listen to Dashboard Confessional in a dark room until November, and then see what happens after the World Series. That's probably what I'll do anyway, as my teams are just as bad.
Pittsburgh Pirates: In acquiring Tigers closer Joakim Soria at the deadline, the Buccos added an arm comparable to Jonathan Papelbon at a fraction of the financial cost. They also added a mediocre back-of-the-rotation arm in J.A. Happ to go with the ones they already had, a sort-of-usable middle relief option in Joe Blanton, and they've given a last chance to Aramis Ramirez thanks to the Josh Harrison injury. I can't complain about Soria- that was the kind of move that can loom large in the postseason by shortening the game. But all the rest were no-risk, no-reward moves, and this is a team that needed another bat and another legitimate starting pitcher if they had designs on leveling up this year. Unless the light goes on for Gregory Polanco, this could be another one-and-done October. For that matter, they've banked plenty of wins but their lead in the Wild Card isn't so big that they couldn't fall out of it entirely. I say this as someone who respects the hell out of the job Neal Huntington has done to get his team to this point, but I would be very disappointed and nervous if I were a Pirates fan. Just as a fan of baseball, I don't want the 2013 NLDS to be the furthest Andrew McCutchen goes with the Pirates. I want them to have a year, and I don't think 2015 is it.
St. Louis Cardinals: GM John Mozeliak basically shrugged his way through July- Jonathan Broxton, Steve Cishek, and Brandon Moss are the baseball version of a shrug- and why not: the Cardinals have the best record and second-best run differential in the game. Kolten Wong and Randal Grichuk are hitting, with Stephen Piscotty just called up to join them. Their front four starting pitchers have been nails, leading the best pitching staff in baseball, and that's without Adam Wainwright. All Cards fans have to worry about is Matt Holliday's health, but even if he's not good to go, the rest of the lineup's shown the ability to pick up the slack. I guess running into a buzzsaw team in the NLDS is still possible, but you can't worry about that now, and does anyone even think that's likely? I can't even imagine myself as a Cardinals fan. I'm not equipped to handle that much happiness.
Cincinnati Reds: Like everyone else, I had my doubts on how far the Reds would take their selloff. And given that they still have expensive and lights-out closer Aroldis Chapman on their roster, those doubts seem appropriate now. I have no qualms with the Cueto haul: Finnegan, Lamb, and another potential starting pitcher is a lot for two months of anybody. I think they did fine on Mike Leake: the Giants may have a terrible farm system, but at least they got their best guy. Were I a Reds fan, I would be moderately impressed with my team's moves right now, just as I was when they traded Alfredo Simon and Mat Latos for useful, controllable players last winter. My concern would be this: By only trading the pending free agents and nobody else, that might telegraph some really stupid intentions for the winter. There's bound to be a temptation for Castellini and Jocketty to reload instead of rebuild, to keep treating Votto, Bruce, Frazier, and Phillips as a championship-caliber core. Don't do it, dudes. Save your money and plant the seeds. Maybe they'll grow before Votto is useless.
Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers were a lot worse in the first half than I thought they'd be, but I think they handled it just fine. Sending Aramis back to the Pirates for one last playoff run is something the baseball gods will smile upon, and getting a prospect package with a real top-tier headliner for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers could wind up as a classic win-win trade. Getting anything at all for Jonathan Broxton was the capper on a solid July for Doug Melvin. I don't know if I'd be that positive if I rooted for the Brewers, though. After the illusion of a .500 season in 2014, to collapse so completely that trading Gomez made sense would be a kick in the junk. So if I were a Brewers fan, I would listen to Dashboard Confessional in a dark room until November, and then see what happens after the World Series. That's probably what I'll do anyway, as my teams are just as bad.
Pittsburgh Pirates: In acquiring Tigers closer Joakim Soria at the deadline, the Buccos added an arm comparable to Jonathan Papelbon at a fraction of the financial cost. They also added a mediocre back-of-the-rotation arm in J.A. Happ to go with the ones they already had, a sort-of-usable middle relief option in Joe Blanton, and they've given a last chance to Aramis Ramirez thanks to the Josh Harrison injury. I can't complain about Soria- that was the kind of move that can loom large in the postseason by shortening the game. But all the rest were no-risk, no-reward moves, and this is a team that needed another bat and another legitimate starting pitcher if they had designs on leveling up this year. Unless the light goes on for Gregory Polanco, this could be another one-and-done October. For that matter, they've banked plenty of wins but their lead in the Wild Card isn't so big that they couldn't fall out of it entirely. I say this as someone who respects the hell out of the job Neal Huntington has done to get his team to this point, but I would be very disappointed and nervous if I were a Pirates fan. Just as a fan of baseball, I don't want the 2013 NLDS to be the furthest Andrew McCutchen goes with the Pirates. I want them to have a year, and I don't think 2015 is it.
St. Louis Cardinals: GM John Mozeliak basically shrugged his way through July- Jonathan Broxton, Steve Cishek, and Brandon Moss are the baseball version of a shrug- and why not: the Cardinals have the best record and second-best run differential in the game. Kolten Wong and Randal Grichuk are hitting, with Stephen Piscotty just called up to join them. Their front four starting pitchers have been nails, leading the best pitching staff in baseball, and that's without Adam Wainwright. All Cards fans have to worry about is Matt Holliday's health, but even if he's not good to go, the rest of the lineup's shown the ability to pick up the slack. I guess running into a buzzsaw team in the NLDS is still possible, but you can't worry about that now, and does anyone even think that's likely? I can't even imagine myself as a Cardinals fan. I'm not equipped to handle that much happiness.
States of the Franchises: NL West
You can go to any one of a dozen sites for instant analysis and projections based on baseball trades of the past month. I've read up on the prospects and the playoff odds, but I don't want to be redundant. I'm just going to do what I did over the winter: short term and long term, should you be happy to be a fan of your team? If your team participated in the trade frenzy, did that help or hurt? Six bite-sized posts over the next day or two. Here we go.
Arizona Diamondbacks: The early season deals of Mark Trumbo to Seattle for Wellington Castillo and the sale of pitching prospect Touki Toussaint to the Braves was all D-Backs fans got. They were supposedly in on some big targets like Aroldis Chapman and Cole Hamels, but came away empty handed. Despite claims of competitiveness from Dave Stewart and Tony Larussa- and, to be fair, the team's record- D-Backs fans are probably less than thrilled about 2015. But with A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt as legit stars in the lineup, and with some young pitching on the way, they're not a disaster. The team's medium and long-term future is entirely at the mercy of the aforementioned baseball bosses. I'd be hopeful for 2016 if I was a D-Backs fan, and encouraged that there was no short-term buying this month, but I'd still be very nervous about LaRussa and Stewart's talent evaluation skills.
Colorado Rockies: I asked Jeff Bridich not to make the playoffs or trade Tulo this year, because that would make them not the most boring team in baseball. Sadly, Tulo went to Toronto for Jose Reyes and a pretty good trio of pitching prospects a couple days ago. While the deal itself was interesting and decent for both sides, now we don't have the idea of the Tulo trade to speculate on anymore. Just the reality of Jose Reyes falling further from being worth his contract, and another hyped young arm in Jeff Hoffman getting introduced to the majors via Coors Field, like Butler, Matzek, and countless others before. Hmm. Maybe the Rockies are still the most boring team. I think I prefer the trade that happened to no trade at all, but I'm still wondering if Bridich has his own vision for building a winner at Coors. "Pitching prospects" looks a lot like Dan O'Dowd's vision.
Los Angeles Dodgers: While fans of instant gratification were clamoring for Andrew Friedman to acquire David Price or Cole Hamels, he decided his best prospects were too valuable to trade- so LA became a buyer in the most literal sense, adding talent at the cost of little more than money. The blockbuster 13-player deal with the Marlins and the Braves amounted to Los Angeles taking on the other teams' bad contracts while adding two solid mid-rotation starting pitchers, a late-inning reliever, and a top infield prospect. With a pair of aces now followed by a respectable supporting cast of arms, and with the team's minor league system even better than it was a week ago, there's nothing for Dodgers fans to complain about. This is what the Steinbrenner Yankees would have looked like under modern baseball rules.
San Diego Padres: With minutes to go until the deadline, Padres GM A.J. Preller made his choice. Rather than gut the major league roster he assembled so frenetically last winter, he chose to hang on to his many valuable players while adding lefty reliever Mark "Scrabble" Rzepczynski from the Indians. That Preller didn't act drastically might have been disappointing, but the blunders he made in the winter cannot be fixed by simply trading away the players he acquired. For better or worse, this mediocre team with a decent pitching staff, horrid infield, historically bad outfield defense, and a strip-mined farm system is what the Padres are going to be for now. That Preller still thinks the team has a run in them, capable of closing the 7 1/2 game deficit in the Wild Card race, is kind of ridiculous. I'm glad I'm not a Padres fan, because you never want one season's Opening Day to be the peak of your excitement for several years. But I'm hard pressed to find real reasons for optimism here.
San Francisco Giants: With a two-game lead in the Wild Card race, the Giants merely have to stay ahead of the Cubs and the Mets for two months to give themselves a shot at back-to-back World Series titles. To that end, they traded their top prospect- A-ball pitcher Keury Mella- along with another minor leaguer to the Reds for starting pitcher Mike Leake. It's a footnote to a chaotic trade season, but by some kind of wacky happenstance the teams that go far in the postseason are almost always the teams that make these useful mid-level deals in July. The Giants needed a reliable mid-to-upper rotation starter and they hit the low end of that target. Their supply of prospects appears damn near dried up, but somehow they keep finding Chris Hestons and Matt Duffys who come up and excel. I don't understand Giants Magic, I don't particularly enjoy it, but were I a Giants fan I would surely enjoy the complacency that comes from rooting for a team that wins a lot for no reason. I would be unreasonably confident for 2015, and I would have faith for the future that prospect rankings and offseason projections have nothing on Sabean/Bochy Jedi powers.
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
Baseball Spitballs
I've been reading, watching, and listening to every bit of trade deadline news and speculation I can find this month. It's a good time, we all want our favorite team to get the players we want at the price we want to pay. But last winter's Jeff Samardzija trade notwithstanding, that just doesn't happen much. If you want your team to get Cole Hamels, you're going to have to accept that that involves giving up that elite prospect who you consider off the table. If you want anybody of value and you're the Mets, you don't get to keep all your pitchers. So I thought I would have a little fun with it, and make some shot-in-the-dark guesses for some of the major trade targets.
-Cole Hamels (LHP, Phillies). Phillies management has been holding out for a team to offer their best minor leaguers since the winter, and it hasn't happened yet. We can rule out a couple of teams because of financial reasons (Royals, Pirates) and a few more because they've made clear they're not mortgaging their future for anyone (Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Astros). I think we can make some more cuts by looking at the teams that just don't have the elite prospects to give (Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Tigers). There's only one team I see that fits all the criteria: not on Hamels's no trade list, has the money and prospects to deal, and believes it's in a contending window. That team is the Texas Rangers. Joey Gallo is their Mookie Betts/Kris Bryant and probably won't be moved, but a package of C Jorge Alfaro, OF Nomar Mazara, and a pitcher from further down the list seems like a deal that the Phillies could accept and the Rangers could withstand. It's either that or wait for Andy McPhail to put together an analytics department and head into the winter with a better idea of what the options are, and who's going to make the decisions. It wouldn't shock me if it went that way either.
-Johnny Cueto (RHP, Reds). Cueto might be the first trade domino to fall, as Walt Jocketty was pretty much just waiting for the All-Star Game to be over before he starts the retool in Cincy. He's 29, a proven ace, and owed only $5M for the remainder of 2015. That means any team with a chance to win in 2015 will be after him, and he'll probably go to whichever team offers up the best prospect. I think Toronto, Houston, Minnesota and the Dodgers are likely to get in on the bidding war, but let's remember a couple years back, when Royals GM Dayton Moore traded a package of prospects including next-big-thing Wil Myers for James Shields. The Royals are good again this year, but there's a hole at the top of the rotation that Cueto could fill nicely. Maybe Moore is crazy enough to part with OF prospect Raul Mondesi, among other lesser parts, to give his team another crack at winning it all. Concern over Cueto's health could derail all of this, which seems in keeping with the Reds' luck in recent years.
-Ben Zobrist (IF-OF, Athletics). I don't think the A's can risk keeping BenZo and making him a qualifying offer this winter, so this could be another highest-bidder rental situation. Billy Beane wouldn't go after the highly regarded kid in A-ball, though. He would want a player who could step in in Oakland by 2016, and ideally, before then. How about Gavin Cecchini of the Mets? New York's farm system is deep in shortstops, and while Cecchini doesn't have the same upside as some of the others, he's close to big league ready and at some point the Marcus Semien era has to come to an end. I think it makes sense from the Mets' perspective for multiple reasons: they can add a versatile high-OBP bat to go with the zero they already have, and it leaves the pitching depth intact to go after another hitter. We all know the Mets aren't just one guy away from being a powerhouse, but if this was the headliner among two or three trades for position players, that might be good enough.
-Jeff Samardzija (RHP, White Sox). The big winter reload hasn't gone the way the Sox (or I) thought it would. They're not a terrible team, just a handful of games under .500, but with so many teams above them it might be time to stop dreaming on 2015 and just remind ourselves that Abreu, Eaton, Sale, and Quintana will be here for a while. So who would jump on the Shark? A team without the financial or prospect wealth to chase the available aces, and ideally a team that already has an ace and could slot Samardzija in the 2 or 3 spot. I like the Pirates as a fit here. They could build a package around almost-ready-for-primetime infielder Alen Hanson and maybe another guy from their 15-20 range. Then Shark slots in behind Cole and Liriano and the Pirates are in decent shape to take a run at the Cardinals- or at the very least, survive the Wild Card game.
-Justin Upton (OF, Padres). Speaking of offseason makeovers I gave too much credit to, let's help A.J. Preller dig himself out of this mess. Upton would instantly become the best available position player, if we assume the Brewers are going to wait until the winter to execute a full tear-down. This could easily become a bidding war situation: if you wanted Cueto and wound up with Scott Kazmir you're still better, but there may not be another outfielder with Upton's offensive ability on the market until November. Despite their front-office turmoil, the Angels are in first place with an offense that's been Trout, Pujols, and seven o-fers on a daily basis. It would cost the Angels a pitcher they wouldn't want to give up- maybe Sean Newcomb, maybe Andrew Heaney- but one of the best things Jerry DiPoto did in his tenure was establish some surplus of quality young arms. Bill Stoneman shouldn't be squeamish about parting with one of them if that's what it takes to give that playoff-caliber pitching staff an offense to match.
That's it for now. If we don't get some trade activity soon, I might just have to do another one of these.
-Cole Hamels (LHP, Phillies). Phillies management has been holding out for a team to offer their best minor leaguers since the winter, and it hasn't happened yet. We can rule out a couple of teams because of financial reasons (Royals, Pirates) and a few more because they've made clear they're not mortgaging their future for anyone (Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Astros). I think we can make some more cuts by looking at the teams that just don't have the elite prospects to give (Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Tigers). There's only one team I see that fits all the criteria: not on Hamels's no trade list, has the money and prospects to deal, and believes it's in a contending window. That team is the Texas Rangers. Joey Gallo is their Mookie Betts/Kris Bryant and probably won't be moved, but a package of C Jorge Alfaro, OF Nomar Mazara, and a pitcher from further down the list seems like a deal that the Phillies could accept and the Rangers could withstand. It's either that or wait for Andy McPhail to put together an analytics department and head into the winter with a better idea of what the options are, and who's going to make the decisions. It wouldn't shock me if it went that way either.
-Johnny Cueto (RHP, Reds). Cueto might be the first trade domino to fall, as Walt Jocketty was pretty much just waiting for the All-Star Game to be over before he starts the retool in Cincy. He's 29, a proven ace, and owed only $5M for the remainder of 2015. That means any team with a chance to win in 2015 will be after him, and he'll probably go to whichever team offers up the best prospect. I think Toronto, Houston, Minnesota and the Dodgers are likely to get in on the bidding war, but let's remember a couple years back, when Royals GM Dayton Moore traded a package of prospects including next-big-thing Wil Myers for James Shields. The Royals are good again this year, but there's a hole at the top of the rotation that Cueto could fill nicely. Maybe Moore is crazy enough to part with OF prospect Raul Mondesi, among other lesser parts, to give his team another crack at winning it all. Concern over Cueto's health could derail all of this, which seems in keeping with the Reds' luck in recent years.
-Ben Zobrist (IF-OF, Athletics). I don't think the A's can risk keeping BenZo and making him a qualifying offer this winter, so this could be another highest-bidder rental situation. Billy Beane wouldn't go after the highly regarded kid in A-ball, though. He would want a player who could step in in Oakland by 2016, and ideally, before then. How about Gavin Cecchini of the Mets? New York's farm system is deep in shortstops, and while Cecchini doesn't have the same upside as some of the others, he's close to big league ready and at some point the Marcus Semien era has to come to an end. I think it makes sense from the Mets' perspective for multiple reasons: they can add a versatile high-OBP bat to go with the zero they already have, and it leaves the pitching depth intact to go after another hitter. We all know the Mets aren't just one guy away from being a powerhouse, but if this was the headliner among two or three trades for position players, that might be good enough.
-Jeff Samardzija (RHP, White Sox). The big winter reload hasn't gone the way the Sox (or I) thought it would. They're not a terrible team, just a handful of games under .500, but with so many teams above them it might be time to stop dreaming on 2015 and just remind ourselves that Abreu, Eaton, Sale, and Quintana will be here for a while. So who would jump on the Shark? A team without the financial or prospect wealth to chase the available aces, and ideally a team that already has an ace and could slot Samardzija in the 2 or 3 spot. I like the Pirates as a fit here. They could build a package around almost-ready-for-primetime infielder Alen Hanson and maybe another guy from their 15-20 range. Then Shark slots in behind Cole and Liriano and the Pirates are in decent shape to take a run at the Cardinals- or at the very least, survive the Wild Card game.
-Justin Upton (OF, Padres). Speaking of offseason makeovers I gave too much credit to, let's help A.J. Preller dig himself out of this mess. Upton would instantly become the best available position player, if we assume the Brewers are going to wait until the winter to execute a full tear-down. This could easily become a bidding war situation: if you wanted Cueto and wound up with Scott Kazmir you're still better, but there may not be another outfielder with Upton's offensive ability on the market until November. Despite their front-office turmoil, the Angels are in first place with an offense that's been Trout, Pujols, and seven o-fers on a daily basis. It would cost the Angels a pitcher they wouldn't want to give up- maybe Sean Newcomb, maybe Andrew Heaney- but one of the best things Jerry DiPoto did in his tenure was establish some surplus of quality young arms. Bill Stoneman shouldn't be squeamish about parting with one of them if that's what it takes to give that playoff-caliber pitching staff an offense to match.
That's it for now. If we don't get some trade activity soon, I might just have to do another one of these.
Monday, July 20, 2015
Where We're Coming From Will Be The Death Of Us
It's been a long time since the Messed Up Movies project saw some play over here on RtH. No excuses, I'm just an inconsistent person and I liked writing about baseball and playing Magic more. But I've been binging horror movies lately, and accidentally came upon a few that fit the criteria for this series: that is, movies that get inside you and won't leave. There's no "Funny Games" or "Inside" in this set of five, but that's like saying not every sci-fi movie is "A New Hope". These are all worthwhile if you like seeing things you can't unsee and thinking things you can't unthink.
Audition (1999): I watched this one soon after my last post in this series and don't remember it too well, but lucky for me Past Dave wrote it up. Take it away, Past Dave!
In another of Takashi Miike's best regarded films, a lonely widowered film producer decides to use the audition process to find a new wife. This goes about as badly as it could possibly go. The last half hour of the film is a red nightmare, the rules of space and time go out the window, and we're put right into the psychotic mind of Asami (Eihi Shiina). I give it high marks for acting- Shiina is a great psycho. The film's pacing is agonizingly perfect, establishing so much while opening up new questions, the critical mass of which sends everything spiraling out of control. While it's not as easy to follow or cartoonishly entertaining like Visitor Q, the script and the acting are better. It gets a B-.
Thanks, Past Dave! And now, to the movies I've actually watched during my current binge...
Maniac (2012): In this reinvention of a 1980 slasher, Elijah Wood plays Frank Zito, a guy who restores mannequins when he's not taking scalps off of women. When he falls for Anna, a French artist who wants to use his mannequins in her show, the movie takes us inside Frank's head and shows us his perspective, and it doesn't let us out. He takes pills to quell his psychosis, but they're mostly ineffective to begin with and eventually they don't do anything. He lives in a delusion that his mannequins, wearing his gory trophies on their heads, are alive and part of a bizzarre harem. He sprays Raid in his back room obsessively in a futile attempt to keep the flies away from his 'girlfriends'. He has flashbacks of his mother (played by America Olivo with a very high sexy-creepiness-to-screen-time ratio) turning tricks and doing cocaine. It's not clear if we're witnessing Frank's final descent into madness or if he's been in this place for years, but it's tense, unnerving, and unrelenting. "Maniac" owes much of its existence to "Psycho", but it brings some original twists to the old Oedipal tropes, and Elijah Wood is more sympathetic and captivating than Anthony Perkins ever was. America Olivo as party-girl Norma Bates is a huge mark in "Maniac"'s favor as well. I'm giving this one an A-. One of the most intense and believable movies I've seen thus far in the project.
Spring (2014): This is one I don't want to spoil too much, because what it's really about is something very powerful that's best left as a surprise to the viewer. The plot follows Evan, a young American man who loses his father to a heart attack and his mother to cancer. He gets in a bar brawl the night of his mother's funeral, and believing the police are after him, he hightails it to Europe, where he meets British hooligans, exotic femme fatales, and a kind old man whose orchard has trees that grow both lemons and oranges. That's all the plot you're getting from me. This movie is as beautiful as it is disturbing, an inspired fusion of classic Hollywood backdrops and pacing with 21st century cinematography and characters. I'll give it a solid B.
Cheap Thrills (2013): As the title suggests, this one is distinctly American in its sex-drugs-violence theme. The one thing that makes it worthwhile is David Koechner, of Anchorman fame, playing the role of the mysterious millionaire who pits two childhood friends- down-on-his-luck Craig and mob debt collector Vince- against each other in an escalating series of dares for ever increasing sums of money. I didn't expect to write this one up as a messed-up movie. Half an hour in, I was pretty sure it was going to be forgettable stock horror, but strange things happen when you give David Koechner enough cocaine. The bluntness of his commands- proposing self-mutilation in the same tone of voice as when he offers $300 for the first man to make him a vodka tonic, while his gorgeous wife (Sara Paxton) watches with avid interest- ratchets up the unpredictability. The resulting chaotic spiral is a good ride that keeps you guessing. That said, the movie acknowledges its low ambition early and often, and it winds up being as close to a popcorn movie as anything I've written about here. It delivers exactly what it promises, and that makes it a C.
Creep (2014): While I enjoy the cocaine-and-strippers vibe of movies like "Cheap Thrills", there's something about minimalism that I take very seriously. My favorite movies in this project are small-cast, small-setting, limited timeline. With no distractions, every facial expression, every vocal tic, every extended silence becomes relevant and fascinating. This is why "Creep" is good. Written by the two actors and directed, found-footage style, by one of the two, it's the story of a filmmaker named Aaron who's hired by a guy named Josef. Josef is dying from a brain tumor and wants to leave his unborn son a video to let him know who his father was. As you might expect, Josef is a real piece of work. It's the suspense equivalent of "awkwaaaard" humor. While that cringe-y effect doesn't work for me in comedy (Seriously. Zooey Deschanel needs to stop immediately and take Kristen Wiig with her.), it's a completely different experience when it comes to horror. You're never quite sure how damaged Josef is, and in what way. You're sympathetic because he doesn't realize normal people don't call it Tubby Time, or put on wolf masks and sing the Peachfuzz song, but you're screaming at Aaron to get the hell out of the house regardless. It's going to take a while for me to be sure how I feel about "Creep", but no matter what, Josef is an original and compelling character who defines the film. I'll give it a B+, and that might be a little low. There's something very special about this film.
Audition (1999): I watched this one soon after my last post in this series and don't remember it too well, but lucky for me Past Dave wrote it up. Take it away, Past Dave!
In another of Takashi Miike's best regarded films, a lonely widowered film producer decides to use the audition process to find a new wife. This goes about as badly as it could possibly go. The last half hour of the film is a red nightmare, the rules of space and time go out the window, and we're put right into the psychotic mind of Asami (Eihi Shiina). I give it high marks for acting- Shiina is a great psycho. The film's pacing is agonizingly perfect, establishing so much while opening up new questions, the critical mass of which sends everything spiraling out of control. While it's not as easy to follow or cartoonishly entertaining like Visitor Q, the script and the acting are better. It gets a B-.
Thanks, Past Dave! And now, to the movies I've actually watched during my current binge...
Maniac (2012): In this reinvention of a 1980 slasher, Elijah Wood plays Frank Zito, a guy who restores mannequins when he's not taking scalps off of women. When he falls for Anna, a French artist who wants to use his mannequins in her show, the movie takes us inside Frank's head and shows us his perspective, and it doesn't let us out. He takes pills to quell his psychosis, but they're mostly ineffective to begin with and eventually they don't do anything. He lives in a delusion that his mannequins, wearing his gory trophies on their heads, are alive and part of a bizzarre harem. He sprays Raid in his back room obsessively in a futile attempt to keep the flies away from his 'girlfriends'. He has flashbacks of his mother (played by America Olivo with a very high sexy-creepiness-to-screen-time ratio) turning tricks and doing cocaine. It's not clear if we're witnessing Frank's final descent into madness or if he's been in this place for years, but it's tense, unnerving, and unrelenting. "Maniac" owes much of its existence to "Psycho", but it brings some original twists to the old Oedipal tropes, and Elijah Wood is more sympathetic and captivating than Anthony Perkins ever was. America Olivo as party-girl Norma Bates is a huge mark in "Maniac"'s favor as well. I'm giving this one an A-. One of the most intense and believable movies I've seen thus far in the project.
Spring (2014): This is one I don't want to spoil too much, because what it's really about is something very powerful that's best left as a surprise to the viewer. The plot follows Evan, a young American man who loses his father to a heart attack and his mother to cancer. He gets in a bar brawl the night of his mother's funeral, and believing the police are after him, he hightails it to Europe, where he meets British hooligans, exotic femme fatales, and a kind old man whose orchard has trees that grow both lemons and oranges. That's all the plot you're getting from me. This movie is as beautiful as it is disturbing, an inspired fusion of classic Hollywood backdrops and pacing with 21st century cinematography and characters. I'll give it a solid B.
Cheap Thrills (2013): As the title suggests, this one is distinctly American in its sex-drugs-violence theme. The one thing that makes it worthwhile is David Koechner, of Anchorman fame, playing the role of the mysterious millionaire who pits two childhood friends- down-on-his-luck Craig and mob debt collector Vince- against each other in an escalating series of dares for ever increasing sums of money. I didn't expect to write this one up as a messed-up movie. Half an hour in, I was pretty sure it was going to be forgettable stock horror, but strange things happen when you give David Koechner enough cocaine. The bluntness of his commands- proposing self-mutilation in the same tone of voice as when he offers $300 for the first man to make him a vodka tonic, while his gorgeous wife (Sara Paxton) watches with avid interest- ratchets up the unpredictability. The resulting chaotic spiral is a good ride that keeps you guessing. That said, the movie acknowledges its low ambition early and often, and it winds up being as close to a popcorn movie as anything I've written about here. It delivers exactly what it promises, and that makes it a C.
Creep (2014): While I enjoy the cocaine-and-strippers vibe of movies like "Cheap Thrills", there's something about minimalism that I take very seriously. My favorite movies in this project are small-cast, small-setting, limited timeline. With no distractions, every facial expression, every vocal tic, every extended silence becomes relevant and fascinating. This is why "Creep" is good. Written by the two actors and directed, found-footage style, by one of the two, it's the story of a filmmaker named Aaron who's hired by a guy named Josef. Josef is dying from a brain tumor and wants to leave his unborn son a video to let him know who his father was. As you might expect, Josef is a real piece of work. It's the suspense equivalent of "awkwaaaard" humor. While that cringe-y effect doesn't work for me in comedy (Seriously. Zooey Deschanel needs to stop immediately and take Kristen Wiig with her.), it's a completely different experience when it comes to horror. You're never quite sure how damaged Josef is, and in what way. You're sympathetic because he doesn't realize normal people don't call it Tubby Time, or put on wolf masks and sing the Peachfuzz song, but you're screaming at Aaron to get the hell out of the house regardless. It's going to take a while for me to be sure how I feel about "Creep", but no matter what, Josef is an original and compelling character who defines the film. I'll give it a B+, and that might be a little low. There's something very special about this film.
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