NL East
First Place: Washington Nationals. As much as I'd like to deviate from the norm, the Nats are the class of this division, and maybe the league. Anything less than a championship would be a disappointment. With Strasburg, Gonzalez, and Zimmermann set to become the new Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, with Soriano, Clippard, and Storen shortening every game, with Denard Span leading off and Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper driving him in... It's absolutely laughable if you're the Mets or Marlins.
Second Place: Philadelphia Phillies. People's attention spans are waaaaay too short. This was the best team in baseball just 18 months ago, and despite years of trading away prospects to fuel a run of NL East dominance, they still had enough left over to yoink Ben Revere from the Twins. It says right here that Revere, Rollins, Utley, and Howard are still good enough to score you some runs. And scoff if you must about Roy Halladay's sudden aging, but he's not the only ace in that hand.
Third Place: Atlanta Braves. I admit it's a good thing to have two Uptons in one outfield. In fact, if they get anything at all from catcher and third base, this could be the best lineup in the NL at some point this year. I just see a serious lack of depth: If Tim Hudson gets old fast or if any of their younger pitchers aren't ready, they're less equipped than other teams to deal with it. And if any position player misses a significant amount of time, they'll end up with automatic outs in the lineup.
Fourth Place: New York Mets. Sandy Alderson had plenty of chances to add a capable player to his outfield, and passed on all of them. There probably aren't more than two or three position players on this roster who will still be here when the Mets are ready to win, especially in this division. We started the 2013 season talking about Johan Santana's bum shoulder, and we'll end it watching the nail-biting race to the bottom between these guys and...
Fifth Place: Miami Marlins. I was all set to put them fourth based on nothing more than nostalgic affinity, but then I looked at their roster. Sweet cuppin' cakes. I'm having a hard time envisioning them winning ONE game, let alone the 40-some it will take to avoid going down in history as the worst team ever. If they can find a team willing to give them a Mark Teixeira deal for Giancarlo Stanton, they might as well just burn it down and call it a day. If they do that AND Jeffrey Loria sells the team, then the season will be a success.
NL Central
First Place: St. Louis Cardinals. Under GM John Mozeliak, the Cards have had the ability- seemingly unique among baseball teams- to develop and call up unheralded minor leaguers who suddenly become productive major league players. David Freese, Allen Craig, and Jon Jay are already established, with Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter, and either Pete Kozma or Ryan Jackson set to join them this year. Oh yeah, and they do the same thing in their bullpen, making it both cheap and effective. Then there's still Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran earning their paychecks. I'm thinking this is probably the most underrated team entering the season.
Second Place: Cincinnati Reds. Baseball's way too complex to say "Team X finished behind team Y because of this move and only this move." That said, if Aroldis Chapman was starting the season in the rotation instead of the bullpen, I'd have to give this ranking a lot more thought. I like the Shin-Soo Choo acquisition regardless of what it does to their defense, because their lineup should absolutely mash. Cueto and Latos are a dominant 1-2, they front a rotation with youth on its side, and at least the Chapman move gives them a shutdown bullpen.
Third Place: Pittsburgh Pirates. It's been a long time coming, but the Pirates will at least break .500 this year. Why? Well, for one, they've developed a reasonable core of McCutchen, Walker, and Alvarez with other guys knocking on the door. For two, they outbid the Yankees(!) for C Russell Martin, who I expect will make a bigger difference than most give him credit for. There's always a chance the rotation falls apart- like James McDonald in the second half last year- but everyone outside of A.J. Burnett is capable of taking a step forward. Francisco Liriano, in particular, might find the NL Central more to his liking than the American League and re-emerge as a quality pitcher. Gerrit Cole, one of the top pitchers in the minor leagues, will probably be ready at some point this year too.
Fourth Place: Milwaukee Brewers. They just became a trendy wild card pick with their spring signing of Kyle Lohse, but they're not getting the guy who went 16-3 with a sub-3 ERA for the Cardinals last year. They're getting the 34-year-old guy with the career 4.45 ERA. Aside from Yovani Gallardo and Lohse, the rotation features three kids. Alex Gonzalez- yeah, him- is their starting first baseman until Corey Hart comes back. Carlos Gomez may have had his career year in 2012, and Rickey Weeks looks like a player in decline. Ryan Braun can't do it all by himself, but he's expected to.
Fifth Place: Chicago Cubs. Okay, so they're punting this season when it comes to scoring runs- just look at right field, third base, and catcher- but the Cubs are starting to show signs of life. Anthony Rizzo is part of a dying breed of slugging first basemen, and if he ups his walks he'll be a valuable player. Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney are a strong double play combination, even if nobody quite knows what kind of player Castro will end up as. And once Matt Garza, Scott Baker, and Arodys Vizcaino show up, they'll have a bona fide pitching staff. So why fifth place? Because as soon as a team has a need, they'll call Jed Hoyer. Then Alfonso Soriano, David Dejesus, and any pitcher who's proven his arm is attached at the shoulder will soon be ex-Cubs. For what it's worth, it's still the way to go.
NL West
First Place: Los Angeles Dodgers. Sometimes the stacked-with-talent, gigantic payroll teams fall flat on their faces and everyone gets a good larf. Other times, they just steamroll over the league on their way to a division title. It's possible that Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez are never healthy or useful again, but that really doesn't matter: that's what incredibly rich owners and a GM who loves his proven veterans are for. If Greinke, Kershaw, and Beckett don't get it done, Kemp, Gonzalez, and Ethier will. I'm thinking 100 wins.
Second Place: San Francisco Giants. They're the defending World Series champs, just like they were in the spring of 2011. They're bringing back the same roster that won it all, just like in 2011, complete with a needlessly expensive re-upping of a veteran position player at the end of the line. So I'm predicting the same result: a second place finish. I'm assuming that Tim Lincecum falls halfway between last year and his Cy Young years, but he's a big enough question mark that he could save or sink the Giants' season. If he's pitching well but the team falls behind the Dodgers early enough, he could also become one of the more fascinating trade-talk subjects of 2013.
Third Place: Arizona Diamondbacks. They had one of the most interesting offseasons of any team, what with trading Justin Upton, Trevor Bauer, and Chris Young. Most people who know things suggest they didn't get enough in return on any of those deals. When you look at the finished product- Martin Prado at third, Cliff Pennington and Didi Gregorius at short, Randall Delgado ready to join the rotation, and Heath Bell in the bullpen- most people who know things probably have a point. Then again, Kevin Towers has built good teams in the past, and if I were a D-Backs fan I'd give him the benefit of the doubt. At least Brandon McCarthy was an unquestionably good signing. I wouldn't be surprised if they won 90 games or lost 90 games.
Fourth Place: Colorado Rockies. The main thing putting them in fourth place as opposed to the basement is a good feeling about new manager Walt Weiss.The other thing bumping them up is their lineup: it's better than respectable, starring last year's breakout Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez and Tulo. But the rotation features such washed-up lowlights as Jon Garland and Jeff Francis. I expect this year to be much like 2012 was for the Rockies, where they score plenty of runs but the pitching is look-away awful. The thing that makes them interesting is that they're not afraid to try new things, as seen by their four-man rotation of last year. It'd be fun to see them shock the world with a bold new approach to building a pitching staff, but I'd think such an approach would take at least some talent as a starting point.
Fifth Place: San Diego Padres. There hasn't been anything interesting to say about this team for years. Why start now?
NL Awards
MVP: Matt Kemp
Cy Young: Cliff Lee
Rookie of the Year: Hyun-Jin Ryu
Manager of the Year: Charlie Manuel
Playoffs
Wild Card game: Reds over Phillies
NLDS: Dodgers over Reds; Cardinals over Nationals
NLCS: Cardinals over Dodgers
WORLD SERIES PICK: Rays over Cardinals
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