States of the Franchises: NL West

You can go to any one of a dozen sites for instant analysis and projections based on baseball trades of the past month. I've read up on the prospects and the playoff odds, but I don't want to be redundant. I'm just going to do what I did over the winter: short term and long term, should you be happy to be a fan of your team? If your team participated in the trade frenzy, did that help or hurt? Six bite-sized posts over the next day or two. Here we go.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The early season deals of Mark Trumbo to Seattle for Wellington Castillo and the sale of pitching prospect Touki Toussaint to the Braves was all D-Backs fans got. They were supposedly in on some big targets like Aroldis Chapman and Cole Hamels, but came away empty handed. Despite claims of competitiveness from Dave Stewart and Tony Larussa- and, to be fair, the team's record- D-Backs fans are probably less than thrilled about 2015. But with A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt as legit stars in the lineup, and with some young pitching on the way, they're not a disaster. The team's medium and long-term future is entirely at the mercy of the aforementioned baseball bosses. I'd be hopeful for 2016 if I was a D-Backs fan, and encouraged that there was no short-term buying this month, but I'd still be very nervous about LaRussa and Stewart's talent evaluation skills.

Colorado Rockies: I asked Jeff Bridich not to make the playoffs or trade Tulo this year, because that would make them not the most boring team in baseball. Sadly, Tulo went to Toronto for Jose Reyes and a pretty good trio of pitching prospects a couple days ago. While the deal itself was interesting and decent for both sides, now we don't have the idea of the Tulo trade to speculate on anymore. Just the reality of Jose Reyes falling further from being worth his contract, and another hyped young arm in Jeff Hoffman getting introduced to the majors via Coors Field, like Butler, Matzek, and countless others before. Hmm. Maybe the Rockies are still the most boring team. I think I prefer the trade that happened to no trade at all, but I'm still wondering if Bridich has his own vision for building a winner at Coors. "Pitching prospects" looks a lot like Dan O'Dowd's vision.

Los Angeles Dodgers: While fans of instant gratification were clamoring for Andrew Friedman to acquire David Price or Cole Hamels, he decided his best prospects were too valuable to trade- so LA became a buyer in the most literal sense, adding talent at the cost of little more than money. The blockbuster 13-player deal with the Marlins and the Braves amounted to Los Angeles taking on the other teams' bad contracts while adding two solid mid-rotation starting pitchers, a late-inning reliever, and a top infield prospect. With a pair of aces now followed by a respectable supporting cast of arms, and with the team's minor league system even better than it was a week ago, there's nothing for Dodgers fans to complain about. This is what the Steinbrenner Yankees would have looked like under modern baseball rules.

San Diego Padres: With minutes to go until the deadline, Padres GM A.J. Preller made his choice. Rather than gut the major league roster he assembled so frenetically last winter, he chose to hang on to his many valuable players while adding lefty reliever Mark "Scrabble" Rzepczynski from the Indians. That Preller didn't act drastically might have been disappointing, but the blunders he made in the winter cannot be fixed by simply trading away the players he acquired. For better or worse, this mediocre team with a decent pitching staff, horrid infield, historically bad outfield defense, and a strip-mined farm system is what the Padres are going to be for now. That Preller still thinks the team has a run in them, capable of closing the 7 1/2 game deficit in the Wild Card race, is kind of ridiculous. I'm glad I'm not a Padres fan, because you never want one season's Opening Day to be the peak of your excitement for several years. But I'm hard pressed to find real reasons for optimism here.

San Francisco Giants: With a two-game lead in the Wild Card race, the Giants merely have to stay ahead of the Cubs and the Mets for two months to give themselves a shot at back-to-back World Series titles. To that end, they traded their top prospect- A-ball pitcher Keury Mella- along with another minor leaguer to the Reds for starting pitcher Mike Leake. It's a footnote to a chaotic trade season, but by some kind of wacky happenstance the teams that go far in the postseason are almost always the teams that make these useful mid-level deals in July. The Giants needed a reliable mid-to-upper rotation starter and they hit the low end of that target. Their supply of prospects appears damn near dried up, but somehow they keep finding Chris Hestons and Matt Duffys who come up and excel. I don't understand Giants Magic, I don't particularly enjoy it, but were I a Giants fan I would surely enjoy the complacency that comes from rooting for a team that wins a lot for no reason. I would be unreasonably confident for 2015, and I would have faith for the future that prospect rankings and offseason projections have nothing on Sabean/Bochy Jedi powers.

Baseball Spitballs

I've been reading, watching, and listening to every bit of trade deadline news and speculation I can find this month. It's a good time, we all want our favorite team to get the players we want at the price we want to pay. But last winter's Jeff Samardzija trade notwithstanding, that just doesn't happen much. If you want your team to get Cole Hamels, you're going to have to accept that that involves giving up that elite prospect who you consider off the table. If you want anybody of value and you're the Mets, you don't get to keep all your pitchers. So I thought I would have a little fun with it, and make some shot-in-the-dark guesses for some of the major trade targets.

-Cole Hamels (LHP, Phillies). Phillies management has been holding out for a team to offer their best minor leaguers since the winter, and it hasn't happened yet. We can rule out a couple of teams because of financial reasons (Royals, Pirates) and a few more because they've made clear they're not mortgaging their future for anyone (Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Astros). I think we can make some more cuts by looking at the teams that just don't have the elite prospects to give (Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Tigers). There's only one team I see that fits all the criteria: not on Hamels's no trade list, has the money and prospects to deal, and believes it's in a contending window. That team is the Texas Rangers. Joey Gallo is their Mookie Betts/Kris Bryant and probably won't be moved, but a package of C Jorge Alfaro, OF Nomar Mazara, and a pitcher from further down the list seems like a deal that the Phillies could accept and the Rangers could withstand. It's either that or wait for Andy McPhail to put together an analytics department and head into the winter with a better idea of what the options are, and who's going to make the decisions. It wouldn't shock me if it went that way either.

-Johnny Cueto (RHP, Reds). Cueto might be the first trade domino to fall, as Walt Jocketty was pretty much just waiting for the All-Star Game to be over before he starts the retool in Cincy. He's 29, a proven ace, and owed only $5M for the remainder of 2015. That means any team with a chance to win in 2015 will be after him, and he'll probably go to whichever team offers up the best prospect. I think Toronto, Houston, Minnesota and the Dodgers are likely to get in on the bidding war, but let's remember a couple years back, when Royals GM Dayton Moore traded a package of prospects including next-big-thing Wil Myers for James Shields. The Royals are good again this year, but there's a hole at the top of the rotation that Cueto could fill nicely. Maybe Moore is crazy enough to part with OF prospect Raul Mondesi, among other lesser parts, to give his team another crack at winning it all. Concern over Cueto's health could derail all of this, which seems in keeping with the Reds' luck in recent years.

-Ben Zobrist (IF-OF, Athletics). I don't think the A's can risk keeping BenZo and making him a qualifying offer this winter, so this could be another highest-bidder rental situation. Billy Beane wouldn't go after the highly regarded kid in A-ball, though. He would want a player who could step in in Oakland by 2016, and ideally, before then. How about Gavin Cecchini of the Mets? New York's farm system is deep in shortstops, and while Cecchini doesn't have the same upside as some of the others, he's close to big league ready and at some point the Marcus Semien era has to come to an end. I think it makes sense from the Mets' perspective for multiple reasons: they can add a versatile high-OBP bat to go with the zero they already have, and it leaves the pitching depth intact to go after another hitter. We all know the Mets aren't just one guy away from being a powerhouse, but if this was the headliner among two or three trades for position players, that might be good enough.

-Jeff Samardzija (RHP, White Sox). The big winter reload hasn't gone the way the Sox (or I) thought it would. They're not a terrible team, just a handful of games under .500, but with so many teams above them it might be time to stop dreaming on 2015 and just remind ourselves that Abreu, Eaton, Sale, and Quintana will be here for a while. So who would jump on the Shark? A team without the financial or prospect wealth to chase the available aces, and ideally a team that already has an ace and could slot Samardzija in the 2 or 3 spot. I like the Pirates as a fit here. They could build a package around almost-ready-for-primetime infielder Alen Hanson and maybe another guy from their 15-20 range. Then Shark slots in behind Cole and Liriano and the Pirates are in decent shape to take a run at the Cardinals- or at the very least, survive the Wild Card game.

-Justin Upton (OF, Padres). Speaking of offseason makeovers I gave too much credit to, let's help A.J. Preller dig himself out of this mess. Upton would instantly become the best available position player, if we assume the Brewers are going to wait until the winter to execute a full tear-down. This could easily become a bidding war situation: if you wanted Cueto and wound up with Scott Kazmir you're still better, but there may not be another outfielder with Upton's offensive ability on the market until November. Despite their front-office turmoil, the Angels are in first place with an offense that's been Trout, Pujols, and seven o-fers on a daily basis. It would cost the Angels a pitcher they wouldn't want to give up- maybe Sean Newcomb, maybe Andrew Heaney- but one of the best things Jerry DiPoto did in his tenure was establish some surplus of quality young arms. Bill Stoneman shouldn't be squeamish about parting with one of them if that's what it takes to give that playoff-caliber pitching staff an offense to match.

That's it for now. If we don't get some trade activity soon, I might just have to do another one of these.

Where We're Coming From Will Be The Death Of Us

It's been a long time since the Messed Up Movies project saw some play over here on RtH. No excuses, I'm just an inconsistent person and I liked writing about baseball and playing Magic more. But I've been binging horror movies lately, and accidentally came upon a few that fit the criteria for this series: that is, movies that get inside you and won't leave. There's no "Funny Games" or "Inside" in this set of five, but that's like saying not every sci-fi movie is "A New Hope". These are all worthwhile if you like seeing things you can't unsee and thinking things you can't unthink.

Audition (1999): I watched this one soon after my last post in this series and don't remember it too well, but lucky for me Past Dave wrote it up. Take it away, Past Dave!

In another of Takashi Miike's best regarded films, a lonely widowered film producer decides to use the audition process to find a new wife. This goes about as badly as it could possibly go. The last half hour of the film is a red nightmare, the rules of space and time go out the window, and we're put right into the psychotic mind of Asami (Eihi Shiina). I give it high marks for acting- Shiina is a great psycho. The film's pacing is agonizingly perfect, establishing so much while opening up new questions, the critical mass of which sends everything spiraling out of control. While it's not as easy to follow or cartoonishly entertaining like Visitor Q, the script and the acting are better. It gets a B-.

Thanks, Past Dave! And now, to the movies I've actually watched during my current binge...

Maniac (2012): In this reinvention of a 1980 slasher, Elijah Wood plays Frank Zito, a guy who restores mannequins when he's not taking scalps off of women. When he falls for Anna, a French artist who wants to use his mannequins in her show, the movie takes us inside Frank's head and shows us his perspective, and it doesn't let us out. He takes pills to quell his psychosis, but they're mostly ineffective to begin with and eventually they don't do anything. He lives in a delusion that his mannequins, wearing his gory trophies on their heads, are alive and part of a bizzarre harem. He sprays Raid in his back room obsessively in a futile attempt to keep the flies away from his 'girlfriends'. He has flashbacks of his mother (played by America Olivo with a very high sexy-creepiness-to-screen-time ratio) turning tricks and doing cocaine. It's not clear if we're witnessing Frank's final descent into madness or if he's been in this place for years, but it's tense, unnerving, and unrelenting. "Maniac" owes much of its existence to "Psycho", but it brings some original twists to the old Oedipal tropes, and Elijah Wood is more sympathetic and captivating than Anthony Perkins ever was. America Olivo as party-girl Norma Bates is a huge mark in "Maniac"'s favor as well. I'm giving this one an A-. One of the most intense and believable movies I've seen thus far in the project.

Spring (2014): This is one I don't want to spoil too much, because what it's really about is something very powerful that's best left as a surprise to the viewer. The plot follows Evan, a young American man who loses his father to a heart attack and his mother to cancer. He gets in a bar brawl the night of his mother's funeral, and believing the police are after him, he hightails it to Europe, where he meets British hooligans, exotic femme fatales, and a kind old man whose orchard has trees that grow both lemons and oranges. That's all the plot you're getting from me. This movie is as beautiful as it is disturbing, an inspired fusion of classic Hollywood backdrops and pacing with 21st century cinematography and characters. I'll give it a solid B.

Cheap Thrills (2013): As the title suggests, this one is distinctly American in its sex-drugs-violence theme. The one thing that makes it worthwhile is David Koechner, of Anchorman fame, playing the role of the mysterious millionaire who pits two childhood friends- down-on-his-luck Craig and mob debt collector Vince- against each other in an escalating series of dares for ever increasing sums of money. I didn't expect to write this one up as a messed-up movie. Half an hour in, I was pretty sure it was going to be forgettable stock horror, but strange things happen when you give David Koechner enough cocaine. The bluntness of his commands- proposing self-mutilation in the same tone of voice as when he offers $300 for the first man to make him a vodka tonic, while his gorgeous wife (Sara Paxton) watches with avid interest- ratchets up the unpredictability. The resulting chaotic spiral is a good ride that keeps you guessing. That said, the movie acknowledges its low ambition early and often, and it winds up being as close to a popcorn movie as anything I've written about here. It delivers exactly what it promises, and that makes it a C.

Creep (2014): While I enjoy the cocaine-and-strippers vibe of movies like "Cheap Thrills", there's something about minimalism that I take very seriously. My favorite movies in this project are small-cast, small-setting, limited timeline. With no distractions, every facial expression, every vocal tic, every extended silence becomes relevant and fascinating. This is why "Creep" is good. Written by the two actors and directed, found-footage style, by one of the two, it's the story of a filmmaker named Aaron who's hired by a guy named Josef. Josef is dying from a brain tumor and wants to leave his unborn son a video to let him know who his father was. As you might expect, Josef is a real piece of work. It's the suspense equivalent of "awkwaaaard" humor. While that cringe-y effect doesn't work for me in comedy (Seriously. Zooey Deschanel needs to stop immediately and take Kristen Wiig with her.), it's a completely different experience when it comes to horror. You're never quite sure how damaged Josef is, and in what way. You're sympathetic because he doesn't realize normal people don't call it Tubby Time, or put on wolf masks and sing the Peachfuzz song, but you're screaming at Aaron to get the hell out of the house regardless. It's going to take a while for me to be sure how I feel about "Creep", but no matter what, Josef is an original and compelling character who defines the film. I'll give it a B+, and that might be a little low. There's something very special about this film.

Awesome TV: Goodbye to Revenge

Tonight, the twistiest, pulpiest, best primetime soap I've ever seen came in for a crash landing in the Season 4 and series finale, "Two Graves". I've sung the praises of this show in real life more so than online, because the "surprised and delighted reaction GIF" thing isn't what I do here, and that's really all I had to say about the show until tonight. I went in optimistic, believing that "Victoria is alive!" wasn't going to be the last twist and turn for "Revenge". My predictions were as follows: Jack, David, and Margaux die. Victoria lives, but is left alone to rot after Louise finally figures out she's a duplicitous demon. Ems/Amanda ends up equally alone and hollow, her quest finished but leaving her without any of the people she ever really loved.

[BEGIN SPOILERS]

This was not a show that wanted or deserved the mega-happy ending from Wayne's World. But, god dammit, that's what we got. Here's some scene-specific thoughts:

-Victoria's conversation with her dying mother was pointless. The shocker that Victoria's father raped her certainly got my attention, but it would have carried more weight if it had anything to do with anything. And the debate over who was the better mother was kind of insane, in a bad way. I guess Victoria's sense of posh superiority was genetic.

-Amanda pleads guilty to Victoria's murder, because Nolan hacked the maximum-security prison and can get her out of there. Because Nolan. I didn't mind this one. "Because Nolan" has made for plenty of good action and intrigue throughout the four years.

-Louise's words at Victoria's funeral set her up for a quick turnaround a few minutes later. Victoria attending her own funeral is classic Victoria. That's why she's my favorite, and has been since episode one. Charlotte and Patrick skipping the funeral was predictable. I wish Charlotte had played a bigger role in these last few episodes somehow.

-Jack and Amanda finally get busy, in Victoria's mother's house. Very weird and very sweet.

-Louise is overjoyed at discovering Victoria is still alive, and then switches sides and sells her out a few minutes later. I thought Louise wasn't crazy anymore! This was what I was hoping for out of Louise, but it was more than a little nonsensical. She was such a good character, up until that little bit of plot convenience.

-Courtney Love , aka "White Gold", almost kills Jack, but the SWAT team interrupts. This is where Amanda goes from planning to expose Victoria to planning to kill her. Like it could end any other way. They double down on Amanda's mistress of disguise shtick, which is at least entertaining.

-Nolan talking Margaux into doing the right thing in the end was a disservice to both characters. Nolan deserved another superhero turn, and Margaux deserved a bullet in the head. But hey, at least they got Courtney Love off the streets! Also, the best line of the episode: "You know the best thing about white gold? It's a great conductor. *TAZER!*" I hope if my hand is ever pinned to a bar with a knife, I'm half as witty as Nolan Ross.

-David shoots Victoria right before Amanda was about to. That's okay, although really, it's not like that would ever absolve Amanda. Accessory to murder much? Then with her dying breath, Victoria shoots Amanda, but not fatally. Also boo. If Jack doesn't die, and if Victoria has to die, Amanda should not get to live. This is the "good guys win" ending, but with Amanda as the good guy. That's bullshit. Jack was the only innocent in this entire series. Maybe Louise. Maybe.

-David serves no jail time, because Amanda needs to have everything work out perfectly for her. The transition from complex anti-hero to Mary Sue in Princess World was pretty damn abrupt.

-Nolan, as always, is super sweet and super honest as he and Amanda talk for the last time. Also good that he gets to keep playing cyberspy after Amanda's gone. I liked that.

-The whole wedding, the golden retriever puppy, sailing off into the sunset.... I object. This is not how the show should have ended. Jack recounting the trail of bodies Amanda and Victoria left in their wake AT THE DAMN WEDDING just reinforces my position. So much happy for a woman who deserves none of it. I was hoping for the American History X bleeding out on the bathroom floor after learning too late that "hate is baggage" ending, but nope. Hate is rewarded, hate is win. Were people rooting for Amanda? This much? Is this what people wanted to see?

-No, Charlotte did not give Victoria's heart to Amanda.

Now I need to find something equally twisty, sexy, and well-written. I don't think I ever will.

MLB 2015 Season Preview Part VII: Awards and Playoff picks

Here's the final piece of my season preview: the educated wild guesses for postseason hardware and playoff results.

AL Awards

Rookie of the Year: Daniel Norris

Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter

Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

MVP: Jose Abreu

AL Playoffs

Wild Card game: Mariners over Orioles

ALDS: Mariners over Angels. White Sox over Blue Jays.

ALCS: White Sox over Mariners

NL Awards

Rookie of the Year: Kris Bryant

Manager of the Year: Mike Redmond

Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

MVP: Giancarlo Stanton

NL Playoffs

Wild Card game: Marlins over Padres

NLDS: Cardinals over Nationals. Marlins over Dodgers.

NLCS: Marlins over Cardinals

And your 2015 World Series winners: The Chicago White Sox, in 5 games. It's not the best team that wins, it's the hottest team. And I just think Chris Sale and Jose Abreu are so hot right now.

MLB 2015 Season Preview Part VI: NL West

We'll wrap up the division previews today with the NL West. Is it just me, or are all the tough calls in the American League this year? Maybe we're all wrong about everything.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2014 record: 94-68 (First place. Lost to St. Louis in NLDS.)
Offseason grade: B

The Andrew Friedman era in LA got off to a fast start, a flurry of trades with San Diego, Philadelphia, Miami, and the Angels drastically reshaping the roster of a 94-win team. The biggest takeaway is that they're all new and improved up the middle, with Kendrick and Rollins replacing Gordon and Ramirez for a notable defensive upgrade and not too much of a loss on offense. Yasmani Grandal replacing A.J. Ellis and Joc Pederson replacing Matt Kemp round out the changes to the lineup. They're banking on health from two pitchers who haven't shown a lot of it in Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, but when you start your rotation with Kershaw and Greinke, the best 1-2 in the game, you can afford to roll some dice. With all due respect to the defending world champs and Extreme Makeover: San Diego edition, no team in the NL West is close to this good.

How it could all go right: Kershaw stops throwing the five or six pitches per game that aren't perfect, and he breaks every record. The rest of the rotation is healthy enough. Joc Pederson makes the most of his long-awaited opportunity to play center field for the Dodgers every day, and dominates the Rookie of the Year conversation. The Dodgers head into October with the best regular-season record in baseball.

How it could all go wrong: A long-term injury to either Kershaw or Greinke devastates the rotation, meaning the team has to scramble with Joe Weiland or give up one of their prize prospects in a deal for another starter. Anderson contributes nothing, and McCarthy fails to make it back-to-back healthy seasons. Decline from Adrian Gonzalez and failure to develop from Yasmani Grandal leads to a power outage. If all that and more goes wrong, I guess I could see the Dodgers winning as few as 80 games.

2. San Diego Padres
2014 record: 77-85 (Third place)
Offseason grade: A

A.J. Preller is the most exciting thing to hit San Diego since Ling Wong was pregnant. Taking over a boring, inexpensive team that hadn't done anything well in four years, Preller wheeled and dealed from his real life roster of real life baseball players like a bored, stoned 28-year-old Everlasting Dave with his Playstation and MLB11- The Show. Will it work? Were they all smart moves? That's not really the point. The point is to be interesting, and for the first time since they ditched the Tony Gwynn classic uniforms for a blue and tan fashion wasteland, the Padres are interesting. The choice for second place is between a team that just added a brand new star-studded outfield and a team that lost two of their best hitters and added nobody of significance. Yes, yes, the Giants Know How To Win, and Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy are the baseball version of Yoda and Obi-Wan. Fine. I'm still taking new and interesting.

How it could all go right: Wil Myers, fully recovered from his 2014 wrist injuries, fakes center field defense well enough while continuing the climb that started before he was baseball's top prospect. Matt Kemp is also not finished. Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner keep all their ligaments and tendons in place long enough to form a really strong rotation. Someone from the Middlebrooks-Gyorko-Alonso group of infield disappointments shows a sign of life. The Padres win a wild card spot, or, in the "Everyone in Dodger blue gets seriously injured" universe, the NL West title.

How it could all go wrong: James Shields' streak of healthy, innings-eating, sub-ace effectiveness comes to an end. Like the Marlins of 2013, no amount of outfield awesomeness can cancel out an infield full of pumpkins. The outfield isn't even that awesome, seeing as how it's made up of three left fielders and there's some pasture out there at Petco. Preller's job is merely half done, and the Padres don't escape from the not-terrible, not-contending rut they've been in for the better part of a decade.

3. San Francisco Giants
2014 record: 88-74 (Second place. Beat Pittsburgh in the Wild Card game, Washington in NLDS, St. Louis in NLCS, and Kansas City in the World Series.)
Offseason grade: D

This isn't just the lazy "Odd year/ even year" argument, even though that's what I used last year and it was correct. For the first time since the Giants became an every-other-October monster, they're bringing a team to Spring Training that is significantly, indisputably worse than the previous year's team. Buster Posey is on the short list of best players in baseball, and if Brandon Belt plays all year I think he'll be a good wingman. But until real-life superhero Hunter Pence returns, they're also the only guys on the roster who you really want in your lineup. Madison Bumgarner is an ace, Jake Peavy is serviceable as long as he's healthy, and backing them up are a useless Tim Lincecum, an almost-40 Tim Hudson, and a guy who's lost almost all his value in two short years in Matt Cain. This team had little margin for error in an 88-win sneak into the playoffs in 2014, and with the loss of two of their better bats, that margin all but disappeared.

How it could all go right: Angel Pagan puts a full season together. Posey and Belt have their best seasons yet. Matt Cain's elbow issues are behind him. Bochy finds a way to get some value out of Lincecum. Casey McGehee and Nori Aoki, imbued with Bochy/Sabean magic, hit well enough to justify their starting jobs. The same bullpen the team has had for five years delivers the same results it has for five years. The Giants' title defense makes it to October, where anything can happen.

How it could all go wrong: Cain and Lincecum are unusable, pushing Ryan Vogelsong and Yusmeiro Petit into the rotation while they wait for anyone in the minors to develop. That taxes the bullpen past the breaking point. The power drain brought on by losing Michael Morse and the Panda leads to one of the worst lineups in the league. The Giants sink to fourth place.

4. Colorado Rockies
2014 record: 66-96 (Fourth place)
Offseason grade: See below.

After the Winter of Preller, I decided I had to come up with a new most boring team in baseball. A team that wouldn't even force me to change my typical Padres season preview: "There's still nothing interesting to say about this team." After giving every team a few paragraphs over the past few weeks- and oh, I will have things to say about Dave Stewart's Diamondbacks as well, in the coming paragraphs and the months that follow- my finalists were Colorado, Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee. Philadelphia was the first elimination, as they were excellent not too long ago, they possess baseball's shiniest trade chip at the moment, and they can swing the money hammer when they want to. The Twins were next out, as I said in their preview, because that would have been like calling the Nationals boring right before they called up Bryce Harper. So in the final boring-off, it came down to this: The Brewers have two legit MVP candidates, of whom great things are expected, and another guy who could find his way into the discussion with a lot of lucky breaks. The Rockies have two guys who used to be regarded that way, but they haven't been healthy in so long I don't know if other teams even want them anymore. Milwaukee's front office also has a history of making gutsy trades for elite players when the team's in the race. Jeff Bridich is new to the top job in Colorado, but he's been in their front office for a while, and his first winter at the helm fits comfortably into the team's long history of not doing much of anything. So congratulations, Colorado Rockies. Due to your forgettableness, I'm not even giving you an offseason grade or a best and worst case. You'll be better than the Diamondbacks and worse than almost every other team in the game. That'll have to be enough until I say the same thing, minus the explanation, a year from now. Don't go screwing that up by trading Tulo or making the playoffs in the meantime, k?

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

2014 record: 64-98 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: D

I really want to snark out here, and explain that Dave Stewart has assembled a brick-red train wreck, that Tony LaRussa must be the dumbest person in the world to think that this is a good idea, that this team is the natural biological product of grittiness eating too much getoffamylawnism. But this is about baseball, not about silly quotes and philosophical differences that I suspect are overblown just so bloggers have something to blog about. And in a baseball sense, the first winter under Dave Stewart wasn't appreciably worse than the Kevin Towers years, was it? It's not like Stewart took the reins of the team, traded Braden Shipley and Aaron Blair for Willie Bloomquist, then cut Touki Toussaint because having a guy named Touki in his organization pissed him off. All he did was move some parts around, made room for Archie Bradley and Chris Owings on the major league team, decided his team doesn't need a catcher, and gave a big fat guy a lot of money to play a position he can't physically play. Not the best winter, true, but I didn't hate everything he did. Just look at the Wade Miley reports out of Spring Training and tell me the D-Backs didn't get away with robbery there. The Stewart/LaRussa collaboration still has many fine moments of blog fodder ahead of it.

How it could all go right: The organization's crown jewels, the pitching prospects, are healthy and effective. They find something productive for Yasmani Tomas to do. Mark Trumbo starts hot and the team is able to get something of value by trading him. Stewart and his scouts find the one can't-miss guy in a weak draft class, and nail the first overall pick. 2014 was their hitting bottom, and the D-Backs improve by as many as ten wins as the pieces start falling into place around Paul Goldschmidt.

How it could all go wrong: So many ways, but the most obvious are that none of the new position players are ready for the big leagues, and the pitching staff is the worst in baseball. Sadly for D-Backs fans, those are both pretty likely. There's reason to believe the good times will last once this starts to turn around, but it won't start in 2015.

MLB 2015 Season Preview Part V: AL Central

With three posts left and four days to go before Opening Day, I might get this done on time. Today we check in on the AL Central. I don't think anyone has a good handle on this division, but I've put in the time, so I hope you're game for throwing ducks at balloons.

1.Chicago White Sox
2014 record: 73-89 (Fourth place)
Offseason grade: A

Since I've already established my love for the new acquisitions, here's where I get to talk about why the Sox are ready to make the leap: The core. It happened fast, but it's there, borne out of the ashes of the Kenny Williams era: Chris Sale and Jose Abreu are young superstars who still have room to improve on their already elite performance. Adam Eaton, Avi Garcia, and Jose Quintana are a tier below, but there's nothing wrong with having guys like that on your team making next to nothing. The minor league system, while not in the same class as the Cubs', is no longer a source of local shame. Then you throw in the wild offseason that added five guys who should turn the 2014 team's biggest weaknesses into modest strengths. That is a long list of players with a floor of "very good". Homerism or not, I currently believe this is the best team in the division.

How it could all go right: Sale returns on schedule, and he and Samardzija dominate. Eaton and Abreu build on their impressive Sox debuts. John Danks still has something left. The bullpen falls in line behind the new guys, leaving the tire fires of 2014 behind. Carlos Rodon forces the team's hand and makes for a really good top four sometime in June. Reinsdorf foots the bill for a midsummer upgrade to the infield. The Sox take the division with a win total in the mid-90's.

How it could all go wrong: Abreu hits the sophomore skids hard. Sale's foot never gets right. The bullpen has new faces and the same appalling results. Offensive zeroes from Connor Gillaspie, Tyler Flowers, and whoever plays second base cancel out the gains from bringing in Cabrera and Laroche. It turns out "being too left-handed" in the rotation is a thing. It's another bummer of a season on the South Side, with a win total similar to last year's 73.

2. Cleveland Indians
2014 record: 85-77 (Third place)
Offseason grade: C

For the second winter in a row, Chris Antonetti and his staff sat on their hands for four months, taking only a short break to get Brandon Moss from the A's. I don't think that inactivity was necessarily a mistake: The team has depth of options in the rotation, and the offense could look pretty good, especially if top shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor breaks through. Apart from defending Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and 2014's most improved player Michael Brantley, there are no stars on this team, but there aren't too many scrubs either. Sabermetrics and writers alike are big on Cleveland this spring. I don't really disagree.

How it could all go right: Jason Kipnis, in his age 28 season, becomes a major factor. Michael Bourn finally returns some value on the last big free agent contract Cleveland handed out. Carlos Carrasco's second half of 2014 was for real. Two from the group of Danny Salazar, T.J. House, Zach McAllister, and Trevor Bauer establish themselves in the rotation. Bringing back the entire bullpen, which was good in 2014, works out fine. The Tribe's cadre of late-20's upside guys takes a step forward, leading to a division title.

How it could all go wrong: Playing DH's in right field and first base every day ruins the defense. Kluber regresses into a mid-rotation guy. None of the twentysomethings that fill out the rotation do anything. Jose Ramirez can't hit, and Lindor doesn't prove ready to replace him. The Indians fall back to 70 wins.

3.Detroit Tigers
2014 record: 90-72 (First place. Lost to Baltimore in ALDS.)
Offseason grade: D

Thanks to the money owed to Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, and Victor Martinez, combined with the absence of impact talent in the minor leagues, the future is not bright for the Tigers. The only question is, how many years can this core be reinforced and prevail over an increasingly competitive AL Central? My answer is zero. Zero more years. As I spelled out in my Winning the Winter posts, the best Dave Dombrowski could do this winter was trade major league assets and some of his last remaining minor league depth for Shane Greene, Yoenis Cespedes, Anthony Gose, and Alfredo Simon. That's not going to be good enough this year. The bottom of the lineup and the bullpen are both disasters in waiting, and there isn't enough certainty around the team's strengths to be confident in this team going in. With a full year of David Price and possible rebounds from the MVPs, Detroit definitely has a chance to make me look foolish, but I'm happy with the pick.

How it could all go right: Cabrera hits .350 with 50 homers, crushing the MVP race. Verlander returns to full health, giving Detroit baseball's best rotation alongside Price and Anibal Sanchez. Victor Martinez doesn't age and J.D. Martinez follows up on his out-of-nowhere 2014. Nick Castellanos starts to resemble a major leaguer. Brad Ausmus figures out a way to get the last nine outs of games. I avoid making Kate Upton jokes because that's not the kind of person I am. The Tigers win a close division race yet again.

How it could all go wrong: Verlander's spring health issues are a harbinger. Alfredo Simon pitches exactly as the numbers predict he will, leading to early and frequent Buck Farmer sightings. Joe Nathan does nothing to earn the closer role, but nobody is there to take it from him. Cabrera doesn't repeat his 2013, and the Martinezes don't repeat their 2014s. The Tigers slide to a losing season and fourth place.

4. Kansas City Royals
2014 record: 89-73 (Second place. Beat Oakland in the Wild Card game, Los Angeles in ALDS, Baltimore in ALCS. Lost to San Francisco in the World Series.)
Offseason grade: D

Coming off his team's first successful season since the 80's, GM Dayton Moore went right back to making the kind of moves that used to make pundits scoff: Giving Edinson Volquez more than one guaranteed year, cutting Billy Butler loose, and giving Alex Rios more money than it would have cost to just re-sign Nori Aoki. I kind of liked some of his other moves- signing Luke Hochevar and Kris Medlen as rehab investments- but on balance they don't make the team any better than they were last year. Instead of shrugging and saying "Dude won a pennant", let's remember that Moore devoted a lot of long-term resources to put together an 89 win team that just lost one of its best players for a draft pick. I think the 2014 Royals were more like the 2007 Rockies than the 2008 Rays.

How it could all go right: With a full Spring Training to get ready, Kendrys Morales is a better power hitter than anyone KC had in 2014. Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy are a legit 1-2, and the other guys don't pitch their way out of the rotation. Team defense and a shutdown bullpen are overwhelming strengths once again. Mike Moustakas figures it out. The Royals legitimately surprise in back-to-back seasons and win the Central.

How it could all go wrong: None of the new players do anything apart from cashing their paychecks. HDH provide the strongest evidence to date that bullpens are random year-to-year. A slightly lesser pitching staff turns those pitching-and-defense 3-2 wins into losses. The team never really contends and finishes with something like 90 losses.

Minnesota Twins
2014 record: 70-92 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: C-

When A.J. Preller drastically revamped his San Diego Padres this winter, the title of "Most boring team in baseball" became vacant for the first time in five years. I mentioned earlier this winter that the Twins were a likely candidate for that spot, but I've rethought that. They probably won't do anything this year, or next year, but no team with prospects like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano can be the most boring team in baseball. It can, however, be on the short list of worst teams in the majors thanks to a train wreck of a pitching staff.

How it could all go right: The young core of the lineup- Kennys Vargas, Brian Dozier, Danny Santana, and Oswaldo Arcia- repeat the 2014s that made the Twins one of baseball's better offensive units. Buxton and Sano are healthy and crack the major league lineup sometime over the summer. Alex Meyer and Trevor May, the two most advanced pitchers in the system, are better options than Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone. The team plays around .500 all year, and deals with its pitching deficit next winter.

How it could all go wrong: Ervin Santana pulls a Ricky Nolasco, as does Ricky Nolasco. Meaningful help from the farm system is delayed another year. Torii Hunter plays defense every day. Joe Mauer continues his decline. Nothing happens via either development or trade to begin to solve the team's pitching problems. The Twins finish with the worst record in the AL.