We're down to the two best divisions in baseball. They're also the two where no prediction is any better than throwing ducks at balloons. So let's see if nothing is as it seems in the NL East, after the jump.
FIFTH PLACE: New York Junior Varsity (aka the Mets). One theory I have, in sports and elsewhere, is that when everyone agrees on something, everyone is wrong. You know, because people are stupid. So there has to be some way the Mets don't finish last, right? ...Right? OK. Here's how they finish in fourth: Sandy Alderson develops a time machine, goes back about 5 years, and brings back the 2007 versions of Jason Bay, Johan Santana, and David Wright. Meanwhile, R.A. Dickey discovers an ancient Kenyan idol of power on his climb of Mt. Kilimanjaro-- probably the same one Barack Obama used to become president, except instead of creating a fake Hawaiian birth certificate, this time it grants a 97mph cut fastball and infinite stamina to go with the knuckleball. Also he can share it with others when it's not his day to pitch. Then, they throw the wreckage of Shea Stadium into an active volcano, say a prayer to every Aztec, Mayan, and Incan god in reverse alphabetical order, and the volcano spits out an indestructible blue-and-orange exoskeleton imbued with the awesome power of liquid hot magma. They use this superhero suit to coax Mike Piazza out of retirement and into the history books as baseball's first cyborg, and he proceeds to bat 2.500 with a slugging percentage that cannot be calculated by mere human numbers. After all that, they still lose 90 games because their bullpen sucks and Terry Collins is their manager.
FOURTH PLACE: Atlanta Braves. Yes, they almost made the playoffs last year. Yes, they're bringing back an identical team. That's the problem. Nobody is as good as their Bullpen Big Three were in 2011, and it wouldn't shock me if one or more of them becomes useless at some point this year. Chipper Jones isn't going to play a whole lot more than half the season, and it's a little late in the century to expect him to carry the team when he does play. Then there's concerns about Jason Heyward bouncing back, Freddie Freeman building on his 2011, and which of their starting pitchers will be healthy and which will be effective. Thing is, no matter which of these questions turns out poorly, they're stuck with what they've got. Ownership's probably not going to shell out for any serious mid-season fixes this year.
THIRD PLACE: Washington Nationals. I'd feel better about them if they'd added one more power bat to the lineup, because at a certain point Jayson Werth will just be what he is, and he is one of the most overpaid players in baseball. Setting aside the whole "You need runs to win" thing, though, they've got a legitimately scary rotation. Strasburg- Gonzalez- Zimmermann could match up with anybody by year's end, and Edwin Jackson does not suck in the least as a #4. They're getting a little too much hype to be a 'surprise' team, but I think the hype is justified.
SECOND PLACE: Miami Marlins. The noble sea predators of South Florida have held a special place in my heart ever since they dashed the dreams of Cub fans and Yankee fans alike in 2003. So it should come as no surprise that I was overjoyed at their signing of Jose Reyes, joyed at the signing of Heath Bell, and... Well, ok. Taking both Ozzie and Buerhle from me was a bit much. Still, that's a big influx of talent, and the intangibles are all there: Ozzie fires them up, the new ballpark full of juvenated fans is the polar opposite of Dolphin Stadium, and their new uniforms are clearly designed to confuse the eye and disgust the sensibilities of anyone looking directly at them. The back end of the rotation is a crapshoot as always, but with Ozzie Guillen and Carlos Zambrano on the case, all things are possible.
FIRST PLACE: Philadelphia Phillies. A lot's been made of the uncertain health status of their aging stars, but I'm pretty sure the clubhouse chatter goes a little something like this:
Charlie Manuel: "You guys doing ok?"
Ryan Howard: "No."
Jim Thome: "HEY GUYS THIS IS JI"
Roy Halladay: "I'm good, skip."
Cliff Lee: "Si, estoy muy bueno."
Chase Utley: "No."
Placido Polanco: "/floats face down in whirlpool"
Cole Hamels: "Watashi wa genki desu. Arigato!"
Jim Thome: "JIM THOME"
Charlie Manuel: "Yeah, we'll be fine."
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