Some months have passed since I checked in on the messed-up movies project. At first, it was because life was giving me enough reasons to be angry and depressed and I didn't need to complicate the ol' brain chemistry with things like this. Once that passed, I found myself holding solitary marathons of Breaking Bad, which naturally led to solitary marathons of The Wire. I can't recommend the former strongly enough, while the latter was okay. For me, The Wire is just what Law & Order would have been if it had been packed to the gills with sex, violence, the word "fuck", and finished a case in a season instead of an episode. A good show? Yes. But unquestionably overrated.
Before I went on that TV bender, I had watched a few more messed-up movies, and I watched the last two over the past couple weeks. So that means I've got five bite-size reviews, and there's a chance this won't be the last post in this series. Once again, do not watch any of these movies. I'm doing it so you don't have to.
Happiness (1998): This one boasts more famous actors than the typical movie from this project, including Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Lara Flynn Boyle, and Dylan Baker. The unifying theme of several separate plotlines is that everybody decides to do what they think will make them happy, with variable results. It probably would have worked better as three short films of 40-45 minutes apiece, each following one of three sisters: Boyle, Cynthia Stevenson, and Jane Adams. One would include Hoffman in his role as perverted prank phone caller, with Boyle as a target who challenges him via *69 to come over and have sex with her. That plot also includes Hoffman's obese neighbor who he eventually bonds with. One would involve Baker and Stevenson as the suburban couple with 3 kids and a dog, and the dad's sexual obsession with his 11-year-old son's best friend. Finally, there would be Adams' story, which is kind of like Liz Lemon's story minus the good job plus real problems. That leaves out the girls' parents, who have their own quests for old-person happiness going on. As the film switches between these plotlines without rhyme or reason, there's a steady stream of off-putting acts, and a few that cross the line into "Dude! No!" territory. Baker will make your skin crawl in a role that probably did him no favors for his future career. Adams gets the job done as the frazzled, luckless Jersey girl. Stevenson reminded me of Patricia Heaton on "The Middle", except instead of being married to the janitor from "Scrubs", she's married to a child rapist. Boyle is sexy, provocative, and aloof, and in a film with such a strange spectrum of feelings, she's also the emotional center. While everyone else runs themselves ragged in the pursuit of happiness, she knows from the start it's harder to obtain than Unobtainium. I was entertained by this one- Hoffman and Adams are consistently funny even when they're not supposed to be, and Baker is so good I might stop thinking of him as "The warden from Let's Go to Prison." On the other hand, pedophilia is no fun. I'm giving this one a C+.
Sweet Movie (1974): I sat through the whole thing, but I don't know what the hell this movie is supposed to be about. There's some dystopian future elements. There's some Actionist ethos. There's three wonderfully inventive and visually gorgeous scenes that qualify as works of art by themselves. But there's really no plot to follow, just one weird thing after another. If you've got a strong stomach and you're a fan of movies where every scene is either meaningless or symbolic and it makes no literal sense, have at it. But it's not for me. F.
In A Glass Cage (1987): This is the story of Klaus, a Nazi who escaped justice and relocated with his wife and young daughter to Spain. Klaus descended into pedophilia at some point in his wartime experiments, abusing countless young boys and keeping a detailed diary. Some time later, he is overwhelmed with guilt and attempts suicide by jumping from his balcony. He survives, but finds himself confined to an iron lung. Unable to handle it on her own, his wife hires Angelo, a local teenager, to be his caretaker. We soon find out that Angelo was one of Klaus's victims, and in a bizarre and twisted case of Stockholm Syndrome, he still idolizes the man and all he's done with his life. It's creepy, intense, occasionally disgusting, and extraordinarily well acted. In particular, David Sust as Angelo and Gisele Echevarria as daughter Rena bring very complex and demanding roles to life. The movie takes the idea of "breaking the cycle" of abuse and turns it on its ear in a series of uncomfortable events. In a sense it's about justice, I guess, but there's a whole lot of pain to wade through before you get there. This falls into the category of "Good movies I never need to think about again." I'll give it a B.
I Stand Alone (Seul Contre Tous) (1998): The idea of losing everything, piece by piece, until nothing is left has always resonated strongly with me. I really appreciate ("Like" is not an appropriate word) I Stand Alone because it captures the worst psychological moment that any of us ever face. It's the instant our worst fears are realized, when the last little spark of hope that comes with uncertainty vanishes into a cold, all-consuming despair. The thought process, the theme of loneliness, and the state of humanity shine brightly through the clouds of homophobia and misogyny brought on by the unnamed protagonist. He's a fifty-year-old man, married to a younger wealthier woman who, along with her mother, treat him like garbage. It's a three-act story with clear divisions: Act one, he forces his wife to miscarry via kicks and punches and flees the scene to Paris. Act two is the slow crush of poverty as he tries and fails to find help from friends. Finally, in act three, he decides it's time to go full-on "Michael Douglas in Falling Down" on everybody. This third act and its extended fantasy sequences are what make this movie a part of this project, but the whole thing is an intense primal scream on behalf of anyone who never had a chance. It's not a happy movie, but it doesn't wallow either, and as a whole it's just an emotionally powerful experience. I'm giving it a B+. Explaining why it's not an A would spoil things.
Visitor Q (2001): This dark comedy (I guess?) comes to us from Takashi Miike, Japan's most renowned shock film director. Visitor Q is the story of a nuclear family: a depraved and craven news reporter father, a heroin addict mother, a bullied teenage son who in turn brutally beats his mother, and an older daughter who's left home to become a prostitute. The titular visitor introduces himself by doming the dad with a rock-- twice!-- and next thing we know he's treated as a guest in the family's home. Over a short period of time, the visitor leads each family member to find fulfillment in outlandish and explicit ways, offering no counsel, only facilitation. There's scenes of intense bullying, murder, necrophilia, rape, incest, domestic violence, and something I can only describe as "cathartic extreme lactation". And yet, I laughed out loud multiple times. The only word that comes to mind for this film is "Inexplicable". Is the visitor supposed to be the devil? Do the characters live in a world without consequences? Am I to understand that we're all freaky-deakies at heart? I have no idea. Maybe this was just an extremely graphic live-action cartoon with no moral or purpose other than to entertain by showing us something we've never seen before. And hey, at least it has a happy ending in its own way. Unless I'm wrong. I might be wrong. Either way, the last ten minutes or so get a "Hell yeah!" from me. I lack the emotional wiring to react to the rest of it, unless o_0 is a reaction. So I guess this one's a C+.
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Pack Your Bags, Assman
Well, part of my brain is about to go into hibernation until March. But before it does, I'm going to do a tacky, spiteful, and oddly sycophantic 2013 World Series wrapup the only way I know how: Props & Slops.
Props: Fox's MLB coverage, for using Pearl Jam as their music all postseason. They're one of the greatest rock bands of all time, and they just keep going. "Lightning Bolt" isn't the greatest thing I've ever heard, but it's solid and I give Fox props for shuffling new songs with classic tracks like "Animal", "Evenflow", "Given to Fly", and "Why Go". Major bonus points for wrapping their coverage with "Yellow Ledbetter". That song should be used any time anything ends.
Slops: Fox's MLB coverage, for employing Tim McCarver through this postseason. Now, as a man who clearly loves baseball, Mr. McCarver and I are allies on a fundamental level. But as someone who believes in sabermetrics and thinks baseball is interesting, it'll be hard for Fox to do worse than McCarver on their broadcast teams next season. So even though I'll miss the occasional laugh-out-loud terrible bit of "analysis", the end of the McCarver era is a good thing for baseball fans everywhere. The title of this post refers to this.
Props: David Ortiz, Designated Hitter, Boston Red Sox. .688 batting average. 8 walks. The only guy on either World Series team who remembered how to hit. The first time in eight years I've seen someone rival the sheer offensive dominance of one Barry Lamar Bonds. Thrilling to watch, terrifying to pitch to. Other than Shaq, Kobe, and LeBron, I don't think I've ever seen one man do more to win a championship.
Slops: Matt Adams, David Freese, Jon Jay, Daniel Descalso, Pete Kozma, various positions, St. Louis Cardinals. The top 5 of the Cardinals' lineup weren't really that bad against Boston, but the bottom 4 were automatic outs. This series is still going on if this weren't so.
Props: Ben Cherington, general manager, Boston Red Sox. Back in late March/early April, I called the Red Sox' core and offseason additions "underwhelming" and picked them to finish last in the AL East. I still extend a good portion of the credit to Theo Epstein for drafting and signing most of the team, but Epstein didn't sign Napoli or Victorino, nor did he trade for Jake Peavy. The right moves for the right team. Well played, sir.
Slops: Jon Daniels, President of Baseball Operations, Texas Rangers. Butterfly effect notwithstanding, how different does this year's playoff bracket look if Mike Napoli stays in Texas?
Props: Mike Matheny, manager, St. Louis Cardinals. Two playoff appearances (one NL pennant) in two post-LaRussa years. Running the Cards' player development agenda with guys like playoff hero Michael Wacha and bullpen aces Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez. This team let their longtime GM leave for Cincy and their longtime manager leave for retirement and they haven't skipped a beat. I choose to give Matheny a big chunk of credit for that.
Slops: Bobby Valentine, former manager, Boston Red Sox. Seriously, dude? You took this team to 93 losses and John Farrell takes them to 97 wins and a World Series crown? I mean, I don't even think managers are all that important, but this is some sick evidence to the contrary. You're a lot of fun when you talk baseball on TV, but that's as close as you're getting to the field from here on out.
Props: Fox's MLB coverage, for using Pearl Jam as their music all postseason. They're one of the greatest rock bands of all time, and they just keep going. "Lightning Bolt" isn't the greatest thing I've ever heard, but it's solid and I give Fox props for shuffling new songs with classic tracks like "Animal", "Evenflow", "Given to Fly", and "Why Go". Major bonus points for wrapping their coverage with "Yellow Ledbetter". That song should be used any time anything ends.
Slops: Fox's MLB coverage, for employing Tim McCarver through this postseason. Now, as a man who clearly loves baseball, Mr. McCarver and I are allies on a fundamental level. But as someone who believes in sabermetrics and thinks baseball is interesting, it'll be hard for Fox to do worse than McCarver on their broadcast teams next season. So even though I'll miss the occasional laugh-out-loud terrible bit of "analysis", the end of the McCarver era is a good thing for baseball fans everywhere. The title of this post refers to this.
Props: David Ortiz, Designated Hitter, Boston Red Sox. .688 batting average. 8 walks. The only guy on either World Series team who remembered how to hit. The first time in eight years I've seen someone rival the sheer offensive dominance of one Barry Lamar Bonds. Thrilling to watch, terrifying to pitch to. Other than Shaq, Kobe, and LeBron, I don't think I've ever seen one man do more to win a championship.
Slops: Matt Adams, David Freese, Jon Jay, Daniel Descalso, Pete Kozma, various positions, St. Louis Cardinals. The top 5 of the Cardinals' lineup weren't really that bad against Boston, but the bottom 4 were automatic outs. This series is still going on if this weren't so.
Props: Ben Cherington, general manager, Boston Red Sox. Back in late March/early April, I called the Red Sox' core and offseason additions "underwhelming" and picked them to finish last in the AL East. I still extend a good portion of the credit to Theo Epstein for drafting and signing most of the team, but Epstein didn't sign Napoli or Victorino, nor did he trade for Jake Peavy. The right moves for the right team. Well played, sir.
Slops: Jon Daniels, President of Baseball Operations, Texas Rangers. Butterfly effect notwithstanding, how different does this year's playoff bracket look if Mike Napoli stays in Texas?
Props: Mike Matheny, manager, St. Louis Cardinals. Two playoff appearances (one NL pennant) in two post-LaRussa years. Running the Cards' player development agenda with guys like playoff hero Michael Wacha and bullpen aces Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez. This team let their longtime GM leave for Cincy and their longtime manager leave for retirement and they haven't skipped a beat. I choose to give Matheny a big chunk of credit for that.
Slops: Bobby Valentine, former manager, Boston Red Sox. Seriously, dude? You took this team to 93 losses and John Farrell takes them to 97 wins and a World Series crown? I mean, I don't even think managers are all that important, but this is some sick evidence to the contrary. You're a lot of fun when you talk baseball on TV, but that's as close as you're getting to the field from here on out.
Saturday, October 26, 2013
I Read Out the Manual to Wild Applause
I would have rather seen any playoff team in the World Series than the two who made it. Rays-Pirates would have been ideal, but I would have settled for Dodgers-Tigers. The Cardinals are consistently a problem for my preferred "New playoff teams every year" scenario, and the Red Sox are... Eh, screw it. Does anyone really need a reason to root against the Red Sox? But let's make one thing clear: Baseball's two best teams are playing for the championship. Tonight, they pretty much looked like it. Sometimes in sports, we get a game so nerve-racking and intense that our feelings about the teams involved don't even matter. Game 3 of the World Series was a brilliant, exhausting game played by two brilliant, exhausting teams. Even watching it on mute to minimize the McCarver effect (accompanied by Roger Clyne & the Peacemakers and Letters to Cleo) and vaguely rooting against both teams, this was an emotionally draining piece of sports history. So many gasp-inducing plays. Jake Peavy throwing batting practice in the first inning, then turning into Harry Houdini for the next three. The Red Sox playing scrappyball to tie it up. The Cardinals taking a late lead on Matt Holliday's double, only for the Red Sox to regain the tie against the hellfire bullpen tandem of Martinez and Rosenthal.
And then there was Allen Craig getting tied up with Will Middlebrooks. The umps made the game-deciding call, and got it right. Let's talk about that for a moment. Watch Middlebrooks dive for Saltalamacchia's errant throw. Watch him land and sprawl face-down. Then, watch him kick his legs up again as Craig sees the ball leave the infield and starts to run home. Voluntary or in-, the rule applies. But there was nothing involuntary about that.
Someone without injured ankles who was watching where he was going probably would have been able to hurdle those flailing calves, but Allen Craig was neither healthy nor attentive. He fell down, Jim Joyce called the obstruction, and a fascinating game had an ending to match. Here's hoping we get 4 more just like it. Baseball- hell yeah.
And then there was Allen Craig getting tied up with Will Middlebrooks. The umps made the game-deciding call, and got it right. Let's talk about that for a moment. Watch Middlebrooks dive for Saltalamacchia's errant throw. Watch him land and sprawl face-down. Then, watch him kick his legs up again as Craig sees the ball leave the infield and starts to run home. Voluntary or in-, the rule applies. But there was nothing involuntary about that.
Someone without injured ankles who was watching where he was going probably would have been able to hurdle those flailing calves, but Allen Craig was neither healthy nor attentive. He fell down, Jim Joyce called the obstruction, and a fascinating game had an ending to match. Here's hoping we get 4 more just like it. Baseball- hell yeah.
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Terrible TV: Special Joe Buck Edition
If you're like me, you're watching the World Series and you probably die a little inside every time Tim McCarver says something. While it would have been a cakewalk to fill a funny post with just about everything Timmy says, I've come to accept his broadcast partner Joe Buck as a colorless Ken doll. He doesn't bring much to the table, but as he accurately reports the plays as they happen, he only takes stuff off the table when he asks McCarver for his opinion. But tonight, during the later innings of Game 2, Joe Buck upped the idiot ante.
For those who are unaware, Pearl Jam released their 10th studio album earlier this month, and FOX has been playing clips of their songs surrounding the in-game commercial breaks, as well as during commercials for the World Series. One such song tonight was "Animal", which Buck referred to as "Pearl Jam's new song". Of course, even casual Pearl Jam fans know "Animal" is from the album "Vs.", which came out October 19... 1993. So good job, Joe Buck. Tim McCarver is now smarter than you. That's how it works in Hoodieland.
For the nonexistent readership clamoring for more Terrible TV reviews, here's why it hasn't happened lately:
1) Master Chef is a show about people cooking food I don't get to taste. Writing about it is probably two steps removed from making sense.
2) I cannot handle X-Factor without Britney. I'm not an advocate for violence, and I can't maintain that and write about the X-Factor at the same time. Demi Lovato makes me angry in ways previously reserved for people I care about who do stupid things, and Republicans. We get it, you're a sensitive princess with an undeserved sense of accomplishment. I can say the same for myself. But I don't go around talking through my nose and acting like I know stuff.
3) Grey's Anatomy is no longer Terrible. This whole season has been Good Television. And I don't have a "Good Television" series.
For those who are unaware, Pearl Jam released their 10th studio album earlier this month, and FOX has been playing clips of their songs surrounding the in-game commercial breaks, as well as during commercials for the World Series. One such song tonight was "Animal", which Buck referred to as "Pearl Jam's new song". Of course, even casual Pearl Jam fans know "Animal" is from the album "Vs.", which came out October 19... 1993. So good job, Joe Buck. Tim McCarver is now smarter than you. That's how it works in Hoodieland.
For the nonexistent readership clamoring for more Terrible TV reviews, here's why it hasn't happened lately:
1) Master Chef is a show about people cooking food I don't get to taste. Writing about it is probably two steps removed from making sense.
2) I cannot handle X-Factor without Britney. I'm not an advocate for violence, and I can't maintain that and write about the X-Factor at the same time. Demi Lovato makes me angry in ways previously reserved for people I care about who do stupid things, and Republicans. We get it, you're a sensitive princess with an undeserved sense of accomplishment. I can say the same for myself. But I don't go around talking through my nose and acting like I know stuff.
3) Grey's Anatomy is no longer Terrible. This whole season has been Good Television. And I don't have a "Good Television" series.
Sunday, October 13, 2013
Horseshoes and Hand Grenades
114 people showed up to play Magic at the Illinois State Championships today. I finished in 9th place.
Sounds awesome, yeah? Well, it kind of is. I won a few packs and gained self confidence. After weeks of being told my deck is good, I started to believe it today. But here's the thing: Big Magic tournaments cut to the Top 8. Those above the line win packs and playmats, sometimes cash money. Those under the line win packs, but not nearly as many. 8th place had 5 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw over seven rounds. I had 5 wins and 2 losses. 9th was the first loser. Yet I'm not disappointed. I came in with no expectations and played at a pretty high level. I met some cool new people (Way to go Varin!). I spent good times with good people I already knew ( Much gratitude for lifelong homie The Accidental Historian, the only other member of Team Socially Unacceptable, without whom none of this is even remotely possible. Also sincere appreciation for Todd, Dan, and Adam, fellow Dean's Dugouters, for their good attitudes and sharp minds.) I stayed focused and stable for like 12 straight hours, which I think is a new record. I gave myself a bite at the apple and I played better Magic than I thought I could.
All that is good. I've never made the Top 8 of a big event, but this is the first big tournament I've played in in seven years. I went 5-2 at that last one too, and won nothing for my troubles (At that one, Top 8 got obscenely huge prizes, nobody else got anything, and I ended up in like 10th. Fucking Tromp the Domains and Sudden Spoiling. I should start trading for those cards just to rip them up.) The message is clear: I'm done small timing it. I've never really been small timing it, just biding my time and honing my skills. I'll play locally twice a week like I've been doing, and I'll be happy to grind out those victories where the experience is more rewarding than the handful of packs at the end. Friday Night Magic at local game stores is what turns average Magic players into good ones, and every last one of us owes a debt to the store owners and tournament judges. I do my best to help players who need help, enjoy the company of those who don't, and be a humble winner and classy loser. I don't always do it, cause hey, mentally ill, and a lifetime of bad social habits. But I try. Weekly Magic tournaments are excellent practice for the golden rule, as well as going above and beyond and making someone's day every now and again. Who knows. The little kid I help with deckbuilding might win a Pro Tour in a few years. God damn, that would be awesome.
But I'm thinking beyond the local game store from now on. It's a fine line between where I am and the next level, where I can play for something a little more permanent. I would have loved to come home tonight with a playmat that says "Top 8 2013 State Championships" and half a box of booster packs. If they'd read my name instead of Mr. draws-his-last-round at 8th place, I really think it would have meant more to me than anyone else in the Top 8. 14 packs instead of 3. One State Champs playmat instead of zero. A chance to play for the title of State Champion instead of a few lucky packs that got me my entry fee back. Some validation for playing this game on and off for most of my life. I fell a little short. A mulligan in Round 4, a bad keep in Round 5. A little bit of succumbing to cynicism because duh, mentally ill. Game of inches. It stung for a minute and I got over it. Next time I'll do better.
Sounds awesome, yeah? Well, it kind of is. I won a few packs and gained self confidence. After weeks of being told my deck is good, I started to believe it today. But here's the thing: Big Magic tournaments cut to the Top 8. Those above the line win packs and playmats, sometimes cash money. Those under the line win packs, but not nearly as many. 8th place had 5 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw over seven rounds. I had 5 wins and 2 losses. 9th was the first loser. Yet I'm not disappointed. I came in with no expectations and played at a pretty high level. I met some cool new people (Way to go Varin!). I spent good times with good people I already knew ( Much gratitude for lifelong homie The Accidental Historian, the only other member of Team Socially Unacceptable, without whom none of this is even remotely possible. Also sincere appreciation for Todd, Dan, and Adam, fellow Dean's Dugouters, for their good attitudes and sharp minds.) I stayed focused and stable for like 12 straight hours, which I think is a new record. I gave myself a bite at the apple and I played better Magic than I thought I could.
All that is good. I've never made the Top 8 of a big event, but this is the first big tournament I've played in in seven years. I went 5-2 at that last one too, and won nothing for my troubles (At that one, Top 8 got obscenely huge prizes, nobody else got anything, and I ended up in like 10th. Fucking Tromp the Domains and Sudden Spoiling. I should start trading for those cards just to rip them up.) The message is clear: I'm done small timing it. I've never really been small timing it, just biding my time and honing my skills. I'll play locally twice a week like I've been doing, and I'll be happy to grind out those victories where the experience is more rewarding than the handful of packs at the end. Friday Night Magic at local game stores is what turns average Magic players into good ones, and every last one of us owes a debt to the store owners and tournament judges. I do my best to help players who need help, enjoy the company of those who don't, and be a humble winner and classy loser. I don't always do it, cause hey, mentally ill, and a lifetime of bad social habits. But I try. Weekly Magic tournaments are excellent practice for the golden rule, as well as going above and beyond and making someone's day every now and again. Who knows. The little kid I help with deckbuilding might win a Pro Tour in a few years. God damn, that would be awesome.
But I'm thinking beyond the local game store from now on. It's a fine line between where I am and the next level, where I can play for something a little more permanent. I would have loved to come home tonight with a playmat that says "Top 8 2013 State Championships" and half a box of booster packs. If they'd read my name instead of Mr. draws-his-last-round at 8th place, I really think it would have meant more to me than anyone else in the Top 8. 14 packs instead of 3. One State Champs playmat instead of zero. A chance to play for the title of State Champion instead of a few lucky packs that got me my entry fee back. Some validation for playing this game on and off for most of my life. I fell a little short. A mulligan in Round 4, a bad keep in Round 5. A little bit of succumbing to cynicism because duh, mentally ill. Game of inches. It stung for a minute and I got over it. Next time I'll do better.
Thursday, October 3, 2013
White is for so dumb, blue is for numb
I know most people who write baseball stuff came up with their predictions the moment David Price ended the Rangers' season. I also know that's insane, because they had exactly as good a shot as I did at picking both the Wild Card games correctly: about 25%. Now that we're on to the Division Series round and I know what the matchups are, it's time to give my picks. My favorite thing about this time of year is looking at the Division Series matchups, and realizing that the list of "This team could win it all!" teams is about to be swiftly and brutally halved. Only four will advance to a best-of-seven and only two of those four will advance to the World Series. The short version of all this is, in April I picked the Rays over the Cardinals in the World Series and I'm stuck with that as my choice. Here's the series-by-series picks anyway.
NLDS: Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers. All four first-round losers have their supporters who thought they'd go much further. For me, it's hard to imagine either of these teams losing in the first round. This should be as good a Division Series as we've seen in a while.
Clayton Kershaw has been the best pitcher on the planet this year; does he have enough left in the tank to finish the job? (I think so.)
Will Zack Grienke emerge like he did with the Brewers two years ago? (Also yes.)
If not, who is the second best pitcher in the series? (It's Kris Medlen, but only because Craig Kimbrel doesn't throw enough innings to count.)
Can a whiff-happy lineup like Atlanta's survive in the postseason? (Sure. All it takes is a couple hanging sliders per game and they're good.)
Will Fredi Gonzalez play fast and loose and deploy Kimbrel early, stealing a win? (Zero chance, although I would love to see it. It might just put Tim McCarver on the DL for the rest of the postseason.)
Who among Crawford, Puig, and Ethier will step up? (None. I like A-Gonz and Hanley to get it done.)
These will be good, well-pitched games, but I can't go against the team that gets to run Clayton Kershaw out there twice in five games. DODGERS IN FIVE.
NLDS: Cardinals vs. Pirates. If I wasn't bound to stick with the pick I've already made, I would be tempted to jump ship (Ha!) and join the Pirates bandwagon. I love an underdog story more than the next guy, but that would be confusing rooting interests for predictive value. Sure, I'd love to see Pittsburgh shock the Cardinals in 3 straight and set up their rotation for the NLCS. Everyone outside of St. Louis would love to see that. But then there's this: If the Pirates are to win, A.J. Burnett has to outpitch Adam Wainright (Nope), and either Gerrit Cole or Charlie Morton has to shut down the Cardinals for a game (Maybe one of the two. Not both.) Note that I'm assuming Francisco Liriano will win game 3, because duh, he's ridiculous. Now, in a postseason series, the better team wins barely more than half the time. And the Pirates won ninety-freaking-four games this year, so they're probably better than your average Wild Card team. I'm not saying it would be a shock to see the Pirates advance, but I can't talk myself into expecting it. CARDINALS IN FOUR.
ALDS: Rays vs. Red Sox. OK, so the Rays fumbled away a lead in the Wild Card race, dropping into a tie with the similarly inept Rangers and necessitating an additional flight to Arlington, then Cleveland. They're 2-0 in these winner-take-all games, and the win in Texas felt like the start of something for the Rays. Since the Rays had to throw Cobb and Price in these games, Boston can almost match them in pitching. The Red Sox have also been a much better offensive team all season, and they enter October in good health. This is all to say there is no rational reason to pick the Rays. Here's the best I can do: If Boston has an ace, it's Buchholz, and he's not getting a start till Game 3. It's not hard to imagine the Rays scraping together rallies against Lester, Lackey, and Peavy in the other games. It's hard NOT to imagine David Price starting games 2 and 5 and dominating in both of them. And it's hard to imagine any Red Sox player outhitting Evan Longoria in a short series. Through some combination of these factors, defensive shifts, and baseball alchemy as perpetrated by Joe Maddon, I like the RAYS IN FIVE.
ALDS: Tigers vs. Athletics. Some have called this the most even of the Division Series, and you can't find anyone who's sure of themselves when picking it. Blame Miguel Cabrera's groin- that's what I do in every situation anyway. This post is well past TL;DR at this point, so I'll make it simple. Scherzer good. Sanchez good. Verlander good. A's starters less good. TIGERS IN THREE.
NLDS: Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers. All four first-round losers have their supporters who thought they'd go much further. For me, it's hard to imagine either of these teams losing in the first round. This should be as good a Division Series as we've seen in a while.
Clayton Kershaw has been the best pitcher on the planet this year; does he have enough left in the tank to finish the job? (I think so.)
Will Zack Grienke emerge like he did with the Brewers two years ago? (Also yes.)
If not, who is the second best pitcher in the series? (It's Kris Medlen, but only because Craig Kimbrel doesn't throw enough innings to count.)
Can a whiff-happy lineup like Atlanta's survive in the postseason? (Sure. All it takes is a couple hanging sliders per game and they're good.)
Will Fredi Gonzalez play fast and loose and deploy Kimbrel early, stealing a win? (Zero chance, although I would love to see it. It might just put Tim McCarver on the DL for the rest of the postseason.)
Who among Crawford, Puig, and Ethier will step up? (None. I like A-Gonz and Hanley to get it done.)
These will be good, well-pitched games, but I can't go against the team that gets to run Clayton Kershaw out there twice in five games. DODGERS IN FIVE.
NLDS: Cardinals vs. Pirates. If I wasn't bound to stick with the pick I've already made, I would be tempted to jump ship (Ha!) and join the Pirates bandwagon. I love an underdog story more than the next guy, but that would be confusing rooting interests for predictive value. Sure, I'd love to see Pittsburgh shock the Cardinals in 3 straight and set up their rotation for the NLCS. Everyone outside of St. Louis would love to see that. But then there's this: If the Pirates are to win, A.J. Burnett has to outpitch Adam Wainright (Nope), and either Gerrit Cole or Charlie Morton has to shut down the Cardinals for a game (Maybe one of the two. Not both.) Note that I'm assuming Francisco Liriano will win game 3, because duh, he's ridiculous. Now, in a postseason series, the better team wins barely more than half the time. And the Pirates won ninety-freaking-four games this year, so they're probably better than your average Wild Card team. I'm not saying it would be a shock to see the Pirates advance, but I can't talk myself into expecting it. CARDINALS IN FOUR.
ALDS: Rays vs. Red Sox. OK, so the Rays fumbled away a lead in the Wild Card race, dropping into a tie with the similarly inept Rangers and necessitating an additional flight to Arlington, then Cleveland. They're 2-0 in these winner-take-all games, and the win in Texas felt like the start of something for the Rays. Since the Rays had to throw Cobb and Price in these games, Boston can almost match them in pitching. The Red Sox have also been a much better offensive team all season, and they enter October in good health. This is all to say there is no rational reason to pick the Rays. Here's the best I can do: If Boston has an ace, it's Buchholz, and he's not getting a start till Game 3. It's not hard to imagine the Rays scraping together rallies against Lester, Lackey, and Peavy in the other games. It's hard NOT to imagine David Price starting games 2 and 5 and dominating in both of them. And it's hard to imagine any Red Sox player outhitting Evan Longoria in a short series. Through some combination of these factors, defensive shifts, and baseball alchemy as perpetrated by Joe Maddon, I like the RAYS IN FIVE.
ALDS: Tigers vs. Athletics. Some have called this the most even of the Division Series, and you can't find anyone who's sure of themselves when picking it. Blame Miguel Cabrera's groin- that's what I do in every situation anyway. This post is well past TL;DR at this point, so I'll make it simple. Scherzer good. Sanchez good. Verlander good. A's starters less good. TIGERS IN THREE.
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