I know most people who write baseball stuff came up with their predictions the moment David Price ended the Rangers' season. I also know that's insane, because they had exactly as good a shot as I did at picking both the Wild Card games correctly: about 25%. Now that we're on to the Division Series round and I know what the matchups are, it's time to give my picks. My favorite thing about this time of year is looking at the Division Series matchups, and realizing that the list of "This team could win it all!" teams is about to be swiftly and brutally halved. Only four will advance to a best-of-seven and only two of those four will advance to the World Series. The short version of all this is, in April I picked the Rays over the Cardinals in the World Series and I'm stuck with that as my choice. Here's the series-by-series picks anyway.
NLDS: Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers. All four first-round losers have their supporters who thought they'd go much further. For me, it's hard to imagine either of these teams losing in the first round. This should be as good a Division Series as we've seen in a while.
Clayton Kershaw has been the best pitcher on the planet this year; does he have enough left in the tank to finish the job? (I think so.)
Will Zack Grienke emerge like he did with the Brewers two years ago? (Also yes.)
If not, who is the second best pitcher in the series? (It's Kris Medlen, but only because Craig Kimbrel doesn't throw enough innings to count.)
Can a whiff-happy lineup like Atlanta's survive in the postseason? (Sure. All it takes is a couple hanging sliders per game and they're good.)
Will Fredi Gonzalez play fast and loose and deploy Kimbrel early, stealing a win? (Zero chance, although I would love to see it. It might just put Tim McCarver on the DL for the rest of the postseason.)
Who among Crawford, Puig, and Ethier will step up? (None. I like A-Gonz and Hanley to get it done.)
These will be good, well-pitched games, but I can't go against the team that gets to run Clayton Kershaw out there twice in five games. DODGERS IN FIVE.
NLDS: Cardinals vs. Pirates. If I wasn't bound to stick with the pick I've already made, I would be tempted to jump ship (Ha!) and join the Pirates bandwagon. I love an underdog story more than the next guy, but that would be confusing rooting interests for predictive value. Sure, I'd love to see Pittsburgh shock the Cardinals in 3 straight and set up their rotation for the NLCS. Everyone outside of St. Louis would love to see that. But then there's this: If the Pirates are to win, A.J. Burnett has to outpitch Adam Wainright (Nope), and either Gerrit Cole or Charlie Morton has to shut down the Cardinals for a game (Maybe one of the two. Not both.) Note that I'm assuming Francisco Liriano will win game 3, because duh, he's ridiculous. Now, in a postseason series, the better team wins barely more than half the time. And the Pirates won ninety-freaking-four games this year, so they're probably better than your average Wild Card team. I'm not saying it would be a shock to see the Pirates advance, but I can't talk myself into expecting it. CARDINALS IN FOUR.
ALDS: Rays vs. Red Sox. OK, so the Rays fumbled away a lead in the Wild Card race, dropping into a tie with the similarly inept Rangers and necessitating an additional flight to Arlington, then Cleveland. They're 2-0 in these winner-take-all games, and the win in Texas felt like the start of something for the Rays. Since the Rays had to throw Cobb and Price in these games, Boston can almost match them in pitching. The Red Sox have also been a much better offensive team all season, and they enter October in good health. This is all to say there is no rational reason to pick the Rays. Here's the best I can do: If Boston has an ace, it's Buchholz, and he's not getting a start till Game 3. It's not hard to imagine the Rays scraping together rallies against Lester, Lackey, and Peavy in the other games. It's hard NOT to imagine David Price starting games 2 and 5 and dominating in both of them. And it's hard to imagine any Red Sox player outhitting Evan Longoria in a short series. Through some combination of these factors, defensive shifts, and baseball alchemy as perpetrated by Joe Maddon, I like the RAYS IN FIVE.
ALDS: Tigers vs. Athletics. Some have called this the most even of the Division Series, and you can't find anyone who's sure of themselves when picking it. Blame Miguel Cabrera's groin- that's what I do in every situation anyway. This post is well past TL;DR at this point, so I'll make it simple. Scherzer good. Sanchez good. Verlander good. A's starters less good. TIGERS IN THREE.
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