Monday, March 31, 2014

2014 MLB Predictions, Part III: AL West

1. Oakland Athletics
2013 record: 96-66 (First place. Lost to Detroit in ALDS.)
Offseason grade: B

Oakland starts 2014 with a deeper bullpen, and an otherwise similar team to the one that won the past two
AL West titles. Their pitching depth, though taxed by Jarrod Parker's torn ligament and the absence of Bartolo Colon, still can't be matched by any other team in the division. The web of platoons and matchups Bob Melvin employs in the lineup has gotten outstanding results out of a group of flawed players, although non-Trout, non-Cabrera MVP Josh Donaldson has a lot to do with that.

2. Texas Rangers
2013 record: 91-72 (Second place. Lost tiebreaker game to Tampa Bay.)
Offseason grade: B+

Let's just put this out there: While the players Texas added this winter will become albatrosses one day, they make for a monster lineup in 2014. It should start off great and only get better when Jurickson Profar joins the team around midseason. It'll need to be great, because the team's best three pitchers are going to start the season on the DL. If everybody comes back on time and is effective, this is a 90+ win team. If they don't, they're more like 80 wins. Without knowing how long the likes of Darvish and Harrison will be out, this is one of the hardest teams to project.

3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2013 record: 78-84 (Third place.)
Offseason grade: A

I loved the Angels' offseason moves, in particular landing the inexpensive pitching they needed in exchange for Mark Trumbo. The problem is, their big-ticket free agents from the past two years were franchise-sinking mistakes. Josh Hamilton was never worth the deal they gave him, and Albert Pujols's decline has been faster and more immediate than most expected. They can fill out the margins of the roster as ingeniously as they want, but not even Mike Trout can salvage the season if the other marquee guys aren't doing their jobs.

4. Seattle Mariners
2013 record: 71-91 (Fourth place)
Offseason grade: D

Let's do a compliment sandwich on the M's. I like how they didn't trade Taijuan Walker or any of their other good young pitchers in a win-now move. I don't like how they gave $240M to a 31-year-old second baseman. And in principle, I like how they got Logan Morrison, once a future slugger, for just a reliever. But perhaps more infuriating than the Cano signing was the choice to give Willie freaking Bloomquist a guaranteed two year major league deal. I just don't understand. Was there competition for his services? If so, why? I also don't enjoy how the roster is clogged with 1B/DH types after a winter in which Kendrys Moralez and Raul Ibanez both LEFT the team. Seriously, Jack Z, do you even know what baseball is? Yeah, I know, you need power. You also need to give your manager enough players to fill out a lineup card. If anyone who isn't playing first base or left field has to leave a game, I don't even know what happens here.

5. Houston Astros
2013 record: 51-111 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: C

The whole "ignore the majors, get the best farm system in baseball" thing is working just fine. The major league moves are a little confusing- why overpay Scott Feldman, what's the point of acquiring Dexter Fowler- but they don't affect the team's long term outlook one whit. And with this team, that's still the only thing that matters.

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