AL East
1. Toronto Blue Jays. Still love the offense, and I think they did just enough on the pitching side to remain the best team in a bad division.
2. New York Yankees. I liked the Yankees' offseason okay: Aroldis Chapman is the final piece of a Royals-style bullpen (Acquired much more cheaply than Boston's), and Aaron Hicks is an overqualified fourth outfielder on a team that's likely to need a good fourth outfielder. Starlin Castro is a maybe, but they didn't trade that much to get him and he's still young enough to turn into a special player. A return to the postseason is not out of the question.
3. Boston Red Sox. Price is great and so is the bullpen, we assume. But those contracts from last winter are still around, Hanley is still penciled in as an everyday player, Dombrowski took a huge bite out of the farm to get Kimbrel, and that rotation makes me cringe. Joe Kelly, again? Come on. This still isn't a good team.
4. Tampa Bay Rays. For 2016 to be any better than last year, it's going to take a healthy starting rotation and big years from three questionable acquisitions: shortstop Brad Miller, 1B Logan Morrison, and OF/DH Chris Dickerson. Miller and Morrison are both post-post-hype, and Dickerson is probably a Coors Field creation. This team looks like it's in the no man's land between contending and rebuilding to me.
5. Baltimore Orioles. Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez open the season in the starting lineup, and Yovanni Gallardo is the new #2 starter. This run of contention was fun while it lasted, though.
AL Central
1. Kansas City Royals. Zobrist and Cueto are gone, but they kept Alex Gordon, so how do you pick against this core? I also like bringing Joakim Soria back to take over the 8th inning.
2. Minnesota Twins (Wild Card). This was a legitimately above-average team last year, and I'll guess that Byung-Ho Park and Byron Buxton help the Twins kick it up another notch in 2016.
3. Detroit Tigers (Wild Card). It's hard for me to go against an Upton-Cabrera-VMart middle of the other, because that's disgusting, but uncertainty about every starting pitcher and age concerns all over the roster mean Detroit has a lower floor than the two teams I ranked above them. This would be a lot easier if I knew what Justin Verlander's 2016 stat line is going to look like.
4. Cleveland Indians. All the pitching in the universe, and Mike Napoli and Juan Uribe are all they could manage to get for the offense. Not enough, probably not even close.
5. Chicago White Sox. I want to be more optimistic than this, because I love me some Toddfather. But the whole division is making a push, and you don't make the playoffs with Mat Latos and Jon Danks as your 4 and 5. You might not even make it out of April alive.
AL West
1. Texas Rangers. A full year of Hamels and Odor, most of a year of Darvish, and a bullpen that I believe is the deepest in baseball. Sold.
2. Houston Astros. That rotation looks good to me, and Carlos Correa could be the MVP. But I'm not sure just what the 'Stros are getting from their outfield or the rookies they're plugging in at first base and DH. The division's bad enough that they're going to be live for the Wild Card all year, but I see a little backslide coming.
3. Seattle Mariners. I think Wade Miley and Nate Karns were positive-value moves by Jerry Dipoto, but he never got around to replacing the bullpen arms he traded away and that's a pretty huge blind spot. The longest playoff drought in baseball is likely to continue.
4. Oakland Athletics. Other than Sonny Gray, Josh Reddick, and Sean Doolittle, I don't really feel good about any of the names on this roster. Reddick and Khris Davis are early deadline headline candidates.
5. The Red Team. If this was basketball, the Angels would be set: They have the best all-around player in the game, the best defensive player in the game, and a stodgy old former superstar who still has some offensive skills. You can maybe win a title with that in the NBA. It's those other 22 roster spots that sink the Angels.
AL MVP: Lorenzo Cain
AL Cy Young: Sonny Gray
AL Manager of the Year: Paul Molitor
Playoffs: Tigers over Twins, Blue Jays over Tigers, Rangers over Royals, Rangers over Blue Jays.
NL East
1. Washington Nationals. It's not fair that the Nats can lose Jordan Zimmermann and still run out that starting rotation. It's also not fair that the Padres and Rays conspired to give Washington Trea Turner and Joe Ross a year ago, but it happened. So they can Harper and Strasburg it up for the first six weeks, then Turner comes up and things get out of hand. I mean, this team has to put up an insane win total one of these years, don't they?
2. New York Mets (Wild Card). Like Houston, there's every reason to expect a backslide from this team. There's no way their pitchers hold up that well two years in a row, even with Zach Wheeler coming back. Also, Yoenis Cespedes isn't the world breaker they had last year. He's a good player, but he won't carry the offense the way he did in the second half of 2015. But they get to play the Braves and Phillies a lot, so...
3. Miami Marlins. If they'd gone out and added two relievers, a couple usable starting pitchers, and a good fourth outfielder this winter, I would have tried to talk myself into fanboying again. Instead, all we get is Wei-Yin Chen and another year of Stanton and Fernandez's contracts down the tubes. Thanks, Loria!
4. Atlanta Braves. I think they're closer than people realize. The Shelby Miller trade was a one-shot franchise rejuvenation, and they might manage to assemble a lineup by the time the Mets-esque wave of starting pitchers arrives. Not this year, but soon.
5. Philadelphia Phillies. We need a word that is the opposite of "stacked", so we can appropriately describe the Phillies' roster. It looks like Ulamog got to it.
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs. It's hard to see this going wrong until October. They probably have the best team in baseball as we open the season, and I don't think any single injury could derail things too severely. The bullpen might be the weakest spot, but the lineup stacks up with anyone and they do have an ace atop the rotation.
2. St. Louis Cardinals (Wild Card). Losing J-Hey hurts, but they're not without talented young outfielders to take his place. At this point I would need a really compelling reason to not pick the Cardinals to make the postseason, and I don't think "The Pirates and Dodgers exist" is quite enough.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates. We've been hearing about Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon for a while now, but I want to point out that Gerrit Cole, a former first overall draft pick, is the only major league starting pitcher drafted and signed by the Pirates that they can claim at the moment. It's fun to have a good team in Pittsburgh, especially after they were so bad for so long, but if Glasnow and some other arms don't make an impact this year, the window might be closing.
4. Milwaukee Brewers. It'll be a long rebuilding year, but there's things to be excited about. Jonathan LuCroy and Ryan Braun could both fetch strong returns on the trade market if they're healthy and hitting, and there's more interesting talent in the Brewers' farm system than there has been in a while. Plus, Brewers fans will get to experience the joys of a lineup featuring Chris Carter, Aaron Hill, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. So there's that.
5. Cincinnati Reds. Wave of pitching injuries aside, the Reds are an interesting case study in rebuilding. It looks like the idea is to trade for and develop a complete starting rotation before the core of Votto, Bruce, Mesoraco, and maybe Phillips are gone or washed up. I'm not saying that's impossible, or even that it's wrong, but it looks like a tall order to me. Other than Mesoraco and the obligatory prospects, there's not a lot left with any trade value. Plus, the team still has a middle-of-the-road payroll thanks to the aforementioned core, which probably rules out the possibility of signing a big free agent starting pitcher in the coming years. The circumstances of having a hypercompetitive owner and having been a good team pretty recently makes the Reds job one of the most challenging and complicated GM jobs in the game.
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants. Hey Denard, Johnny, and Jeff. Meet your new best friends, Hunter and Even Year Magic. I think you will get along just fine.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers. There's too many pitching questions to really feel good about the Dodgers' chances this year. Andre Ethier breaking his leg just as he'd reestablished some trade value was seriously unlucky as well. I can't pick a team to make the playoffs when they basically passed on the offseason, then suffered a series of spring training injuries to important players.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks. I was jacked to pick the D-Backs for the playoffs this year, but I didn't get around to writing this post until after A.J. Pollock broke his elbow and now I can't realistically do that. We all love to joke about Dave Stewart, but regardless of the long-term cost to the organization, he did put together an exciting team for 2016. It's cruel that they lost their best player before their all-in season even started.
4. San Diego Padres. With Jabari Blash, Yangervis Solarte, Cory Spangenberg, and Kevin Quackenbush on board, this might be the best-named team of all time. It's too bad Boof Bonser retired this winter, but Francisley Bueno is still on the market! As for actually playing the game of baseball, well, not so much. But A.J. Preller did manage to walk back some of last year's all-in approach with the Kimbrel trade, so things are better than they were at this time last year.
5. Colorado Rockies. Let the CarGo derby begin!
NL MVP: Bryce Harper
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
NL Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy
Playoffs: Cardinals over Mets, Cubs over Cardinals, Giants over Nationals, Giants over Cubs.
World Series: In a rematch of the 2010 series, the Rangers get their revenge and beat the Giants in 6.
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