Sunday, April 9, 2017

2017 MLB Predictions

And so, it was at 1:34 AM after a typical Friday night that The Everlasting Dave attempted to write a sentence or two about every baseball team, before they had played too many games. Then he passed out and finished this on Sunday. Unfortunately, this all occurred a week later than it should have, but tradition is tradition.

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs. I wonder about how a player like Schwarber fits in on a versatile roster, and it would be amazing if their pitching stayed as healthy as they did last year. Still.

2. St. Louis Cardinals. Dexter Fowler is a really good player, and the rest of the division mostly got worse. Too much uncertainty with the starting pitching though.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates. Glasnow, Taillon, and even Ivan Nova will all be pitchers to watch for various reasons.

4. Cincinnati Reds. I know lineup protection is a myth, and I know he makes a ton of money for a mid-market team, but having Joey Votto around as new position players break into the majors seems good for a lot of reasons.

5. Milwaukee Brewers. David Stearns has already filled out the lineup with players other teams didn't value. If he can do the same thing with the pitching staff, maybe there's something here.

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers. Hill and Kazmir start the year on the DL, and they're like, whatever. We have 8 starting pitchers for a reason. I'm not going to underrate Kershaw, Seager, and this depth.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks. This is so simple: Jeff Mathis is catching Zack Greinke, Taijuan Walker, and Shelby Miller. And A.J. Pollock is back.

3. San Francisco Giants. The offense needs a lot of help. They would still line up well in a playoff series with two aces and a couple shutdown relievers, but I don't think they get there.

4. Colorado Rockies. I get why some people think this is a sleeper team, but so much has to go right. With young starting pitchers. At Coors.

5. San Diego Padres. Three Rule 5 picks. Three!

NL East

1. Washington Nationals. Let's not forget Mike Rizzo got Trea Turner and Joe Ross for Steven Souza. There's no shortage of reasons to pick the Nats for first, but that's the one I'm going with.

2. New York Mets. I don't love this team, but they're probably good enough to beat up on the rest of their division. As always it comes down to health, so who knows. They could crater.

3. Atlanta Braves. Is it so unreasonable to think R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon have one more great run, Matt Kemp hits a ton of homers, and this weird team takes a Wild Card? Yes. Yes it is.

4. Philadelphia Phillies. Some Proven Veteran pitchers, some already-promoted guys and successful Rule 5 guys, and a bunch of players we'll see in September.

5. Miami Marlins. I guess. Let's get the Derek Jeter ownership group in there. Yeah Jeets.

Playoffs: Diamondbacks over Mets, Dodgers over Diamondbacks, Cubs over Nationals, Dodgers over Cubs

AL West

1. Seattle Mariners. This could be an ugly division, but this time around I'm going with Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, and Robinson Cano. I think they have some other players too.l

2. Texas Rangers. Of course it could just be Darvish, Hamels, and a deep bullpen that winds up on top. As long as Beltre's there, there's no discounting them.

3. Houston Astros. I don't get the air of inevitability about this team. Bregman, Correa, and Springer might yet do unprecedented things, but who else on the roster will?

4. The Red Team. There's a weird Dorian Grey thing going on here. Mike Trout keeps getting better, the rest of the Angels keep getting worse.

5. Oakland Athletics. Did I overlook the A's when I named the Rockies baseball's most boring team? Or is this group of pitchers just much better than I think they are?

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians. A lot went right for the Indians last year, but there's some room to improve when it comes to health. Hard to see them falling back to this particular pack.

2. Detroit Tigers. Some teams trade for tons of prospects. The Tigers traded for a handful of them two years ago, and are now leaning on those same players to keep their window open. It'll be tough.

3. Kansas City Royals. Serious question: what happens when Ned Yost has to find new 7th and 8th inning guys?

4. Chicago White Sox. If they keep selling off players and tank further, I'm cool with that. The higher the draft pick the better.

5. Minnesota Twins. Organizational garbage fires are a rarity in this day and age, so before the new guys have a chance to fix it, let's continue to enjoy the pitching staff "we don't care about strikeouts" gets you.

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox. As funny as it would be to watch this team collapse, there's just too many awesome players.

2. Baltimore Orioles. Every year I look at the O's roster and I'm like "oh, Wade Miley/Ubaldo Jimenez/other bad pitcher. They'll be horrible." Not this year. I'm getting ahead of the game and Wade Miley is the new market inefficiency.

3. Toronto Blue Jays. As much as I love Josh Donaldson and the rotation, I'm worried that Tulo, Martin, and Bautista will be liabilities big enough to sink even a big-payroll team.

4. Tampa Bay Rays. The pitching is there to make a run, as usual. And as usual there are some unexpected starters. Derek Norris? Still with Logan Morrison? Meh.

5. New York Yankees. Unless Greg Bird and Aaron Judge are really good, right away, and they can also pitch.

Playoffs: Blue Jays over Orioles, Indians over Blue Jays, Red Sox over Mariners, Red Sox over Indians

World Series: Dodgers over Red Sox

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