The first two sets of predictions were probably the most difficult of this spring, involving hair-splitting, tough calls, and guesswork. So in a way it's a relief that the D6 of baseball justice has sent me to the stratified and apparently predictable land of the NL East for the third part in this series. I racked my brain trying to find a way to pick these teams in anything other than the most obvious order- maybe move the Mets or the Braves up or down- but if there are five tiers of baseball teams, then these teams hit all five tiers.
1. Washington Nationals
2014 record: 96-66 (First place. Lost NLDS to San Francisco.)
Offseason grade: B+
The Nats return most of the important players from their 2014 regular season juggernaut, they added one of baseball's best pitchers in Max Scherzer, and expectations are higher than ever. This has been a World Series-or-Bust team for a few years now, and with a long list of impending free agents, the "bust" might be coming. That's a concern for eight months from now, though. For now, this is as much a superteam as anything the Dodgers have put together in recent years- and more impressive than anything else we've seen in at least a decade. Their number 6 starter would be a 2 on a lot of teams, and their lineup has a blend of young superstars (plural), stars in their prime years, and just a couple guys who are merely solid starters.
How it could all go right: Rings.
How it could all go wrong: Another first-round playoff exit at the hands of a hotter team. I like to find the widest range of outcomes possible at this time of year, but realistically, the rest of the division is fighting for second.
2. Miami Marlins
2014 record: 77-85 (Fourth place)
Offseason grade: B
Just as the White Sox methodically addressed one weakness after another this winter, the Marlins did the same in finally assembling a major league infield. The cost in young talent in doing so was the separator that kept the Marlins out of my best offseasons post. The future is sketchy at best, but for 2015, this is a team worth watching. The only valid criticism is a lack of depth, and yeah, if anyone gets hurt it's a problem. But that's true about most teams. When healthy, it's the deepest lineup the team has had since Fire Sale One, and the rotation goes five deep too- six, if Jose Fernandez comes back strong. There is every reason to expect a good year from the Marlins.
How it could all go right: The pitchers get healthy and stay that way. Giancarlo Stanton gets his MVP. The Marlins win 90-plus and host a playoff game, and then a few more.
How it could all go wrong: So much depends on Stanton, the easiest way for this to collapse would be an early injury to him. If Jeffrey Loria decides to bail after two months of .500 ball, that's another possibility. Jarred Cosart could get busted for betting on baseball. Mat Latos might not make 30 starts. Dan Haren might be done. Dee Gordon isn't the second base solution the team's brass seems to think he is.
3. New York Mets
2014 record: 79-83 (T-second place)
Offseason grade: D
The Mets will welcome Matt Harvey back to the rotation and add Michael Cuddyer to the outfield mix in 2015. As impressive as the young arms are, and as lucky as they've been to see breakouts from Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda, one would think the Mets would have added something more significant than a 36-year-old injury prone corner bat if this is really supposed to be the year they make the leap. As it stands, this is a high-floor, low-ceiling team. There's enough talent across the roster that it's hard to see them being much worse than they were in 2014, but there's nobody from whom we can expect much improvement- apart from Harvey, of course, and his return is mitigated by Zack Wheeler's absence. This is a recipe for a .500 team.
How it could all go right: Matt Harvey is Matt Harvey. Noah Syndergaard forces his way into the rotation and is dominant. It turns out Wilmer Flores was pretty decent all along, David Wright and the old men of the outfield have resurgences, and the lineup goes from just okay to scary. The Mets win 90+, and with Harvey in line to start the Wild Card game, belief starts to happen.
How it could all go wrong: It turns out Lucas Duda's 2014 was a fluke. Cuddyer can't stay healthy. Granderson doesn't have a bounce-back in him. Harvey is something less than the dominant presence he was in 2013. The team struggles to make it to 70 wins.
4. Atlanta Braves
2014 record: 79-83 (T-second place)
Offseason grade: A
I'm going into 2015 a little more bullish on Atlanta than most. Here's what their offseason was: Trading away two impending free agents and one inexpensive, flawed player from one of the worst offenses in baseball. The haul of minor leaguers they got in exchange vaulted the team from near the bottom into the top ten farm systems in the game. The pitching is decent, barring further injuries, and with the prospects on the verge it could look like a dominant staff a year from now. I can't put them higher than fourth, though, because the lineup is only halfway there on a good day. Fixing it will be a multi-year project.
How it could all go right: I thought I could come up with some circumstance where the Braves win 90 games 1-0, but the pitching just isn't good enough yet to be that kind of team. Big steps by the likes of Christian Bethancourt and Jose Peraza in the majors, Rio Ruiz and Braxton Davidson in the minors, a good draft and a smartly aggressive international signing period is what Braves fans should be hoping for.
How it could all go wrong: The Tommy John plague that already claimed Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, and Shae Simmons continues with Craig Kimbrel before John Hart has a chance to cash him in. All the prospects listed above have underwhelming years. Perversely, the offense is good enough to push the team near the .500 mark, denying them a high and protected draft pick in 2016.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
2014 record: 73-89 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: C+
There was a lot to like in what Ruben Amaro did this offseason. Getting a decent prospect for Marlon Byrd, getting two for Jimmy Rollins, not giving in and taking a bad offer for Cole Hamels. So they're in a better position now than they were six months ago, in that they have a few minor league pitchers who could be in the rotation of the next good Phillies team. But Cliff Lee's health issues and Ryan Howard's continued existence mean this is still an old, expensive team without much in the way of long-term solutions.
How it could all go right: Some AL team, desperate for a left handed bat, takes on a little bit of Howard's contract. Hamels jumps out to a fast start and nets the return Amaro (and I) believe he warrants. Cliff Lee retires, freeing up some absurd sum of money. Chad Billingsley gets healthy and becomes an asset, either in trade or as a veteran rotation piece. The Phillies end the calendar year with a cheaper major league roster and a much improved minor league system.
How it could all go wrong: Hamels snaps a ligament and everything else stays the same.
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