And we roll on with the NL Central, which could be the most tightly bunched division of them all in 2015. Will the Pirates continue their rise? Will the Cubs make their long-awaited run? Will anyone outside of the Midwest pay any attention to the Brewers or the Reds? Maybe, but I'm guessing no. Read on.
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2014 record: 90-72 (First place. Beat Los Angeles in NLDS. Lost to San Francisco in NLCS.)
Offseason grade: C
The Cardinals' winter started on the worst possible note with the death of top outfield prospect Oscar Taveres, and nothing baseball-related has any significance compared to that. That said, these posts are about talking baseball, so I'm going to do so. Jason Heyward was probably the second-best player traded this winter, and his addition will take some pressure off a lineup that struggled throughout 2014. It's a stretch to think he'll hit for enough power to make this a good offensive unit, though. I'm also little concerned about the pitching, but people who know their stuff think that Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzalez are both ready to fill rotation spots if Michael Wacha or Jaime Garcia (Or John Lackey, or Lance Lynn, or Adam Wainwright- they all have question marks) falter. This is the same "imported stars surrounded by a deep homegrown cast" formula that's treated the Cardinals so well for so long. While I'm not confident this team is any better than the one that just barely won the division last year, I don't think they have to be to win this year's Central.
How it could all go right: Adam Wainwright remains ace-like, Michael Wacha comes back strong, John Lackey pitches like he wants another contract, the offense does just enough, and the Cards continue alternating NL Pennants with the Giants.
How it could all go wrong: Lackey, Wainwright, Yadi Molina, and Matt Holliday finally get old. Kolten Wong's bat fails to develop. The Cardinals are suddenly a team made up entirely of average players and finish around .500, out of the playoffs.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
2014 record: 88-74 (Second place. Lost Wild Card game to San Francisco.)
Offseason grade: C
The Pirates are coming off consecutive playoff appearances, which is a victory in itself for the former doormat. The payroll is starting to grow along with the expectations, as we saw with the Liriano extension, but not by enough to keep Russell Martin around. This is still a pretty good team without him, and I have no problems with the players they brought in this winter. I get that the team couldn't afford the contract Toronto gave Martin and they probably shouldn't have tried, but that's a significant player to lose for just a draft pick. They could win 88 games again, and maybe that'll be enough for another Wild Card slot, but I can't pick them to pass the Cardinals. Not when the Cards added an excellent player and the Pirates lost one.
How it could all go right: Francisco Cervelli proves adept at handling a pitching staff. Gerrit Cole becomes a short-list number 1 starter. A.J. Burnett's return is triumphant. Gregory Polanco breaks out in a big way. Jung-Ho Kang wrestles shortstop away from Jordy Mercer and wins Rookie of the Year. The Pirates take another step forward and win the division.
How it could all go wrong: Liriano looks more like his old self than his Pirates self, and the rotation is Cole and a bunch of back end guys. Polanco's major league struggles aren't over just yet. Josh Harrison's 2014 was a fluke. The Pirates disappoint everybody by finding their way back to the basement in a very competitive division.
3. Chicago Cubs
2014 record: 73-89 (Fifth place)
Offseason grade: A
The Cubs got a double writeup in my winter wrap posts, so I'll just sum it up here: The offseason was smart and aggressive, the supply of prospects is still better than any other team's both in terms of depth and superstar upside, and they need a few of those guys to produce this year if they're going to contend. They'll be better than they were last year, and there's a chance they'll be a lot better, but I'll believe it when I see it. Remember Corey Patterson.
How it could all go right: Kris Bryant is as good as everyone says. Javier Baez looks like he belongs in the majors. The bullpen is better than it looks on paper. The Wrigley Field construction gets done at some point, and they get to host a playoff game or three.
How it could all go wrong: Baez is a total bust, and the rest of the top prospects are blocked (Russell) or inconsistent (Bryant). The pitching staff behind Lester and Arrieta falls apart. 2015 winds up being a treading water year, and the Cubs finish with a win total in the 70's.
4. Milwaukee Brewers
2014 record: 82-80 (Third place)
Offseason grade: B-
The Brew Crew quietly had a solid winter, re-signing Francisco Rodriguez and Aramis Ramirez, adding a playable first baseman in Adam Lind, and trading erstwhile staff ace Yovanni Gallardo to Texas for three prospects. For them to improve on last year's mildly surprising winning season, they're going to have to get big years out of Jimmy Nelson, Wily Peralta, and Mike Fiers in the rotation and continued excellence from their offensive core of Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Gomez, and Ryan Braun. This group could conceivably win the division, but they lack the growth potential of the two teams I've ranked directly above them and they lack the pitching depth of St. Louis.
How it could all go right: Peralta and Nelson turn into a 1-2 punch while the other guys pitch like 3s. Lucroy and Gomez put together strong cases for MVP and Braun hits for power. K-Rod keeps it together. The Brewers are healthier and luckier than the more talented teams in their division and end up in first.
How it could all go wrong: Jean Segura really is as bad as he looked in 2014. Kyle Lohse falls off the age cliff. Scooter Gennett and Khris Davis fail to turn into productive bats. Ryan Braun is either injured or unproductive. The team has a mini-fire sale and finishes in the basement.
5. Cincinnati Reds
2014 record: 76-86 (Fourth place)
Offseason grade: C-
I was on board with the Reds' winter through the Simon and Latos trades, as they acquired present-day value as well as future value. When they turned around and traded prospect Ben Lively to the Phillies for one year of 37-year-old Marlon Byrd, it gave back some of that depth and made the team look rudderless. The Reds still enter the season with one of the best pitchers and (maybe) one of the best hitters in the NL, so we can't write them off entirely. But I think the window is closed.
How it could all go right: Joey Votto rediscovers his MVP form. Billy Hamilton makes enough adjustments to become an asset at the top of the order. Raisel Iglesias and somebody else step up to prevent a Maholm/Marquis back of the rotation. Devin Mesoraco continues to develop, joining the Posey/Lucroy/Molina tier of elite catchers by season's end. The Reds sneak into a Wild Card spot.
How it could all go wrong: Brandon Phillips does more talking than doing when it comes to what makes hitters valuable. Votto and Bruce are hobbled yet again. Cueto isn't healthy or effective enough to make the kind of trade the Reds need to make. Paul Maholm and Jason Marquis combine for 30 or more starts. The Reds lose 95 games.
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