Friday, July 31, 2015

State of the Franchises: NL Central

Chicago Cubs: If Theo Epstein were Dayton Moore, this is the point where he should tell the fans to "trust the process" or something like that. Because twenty- and thirty-something Cubs fans like to pretend they've been around for the entire existence of the Billy Goat Curse. They see a team with a winning record and start talking about how long they've been waiting for a World Series, so it better happen RIGHT NOW. This nonsense is why I could never be a Cubs fan. The 2015 Cubs are a pretty good team, and they have a shot at catching the Giants or Pirates to make the Wild Card game. Renting David Price or taking a huge bite out of the farm system to get Cole Hamels just doesn't move the needle on that possibility enough. If they were neck-and-neck with the Cardinals, and adding a win here or there meant skipping the Wild Card game entirely, then sure, make a push. But as it stands, I would be a little psyched about adding Dan Haren to the back of the rotation, I would be moderately psyched that they didn't sell low on Starlin Castro, and I would still be hella psyched that the 2016 Cubs, with another big addition or two, will be ready to start breaking baseball. Of course, that's a hypothetical from the mind of this proud White Sox and Marlins fan. If I were actually a Cubs fan, I would never have bothered to learn baseball and would be cursing Theo's name for not overpaying for two months of Price.

Cincinnati Reds: Like everyone else, I had my doubts on how far the Reds would take their selloff. And given that they still have expensive and lights-out closer Aroldis Chapman on their roster, those doubts seem appropriate now. I have no qualms with the Cueto haul: Finnegan, Lamb, and another potential starting pitcher is a lot for two months of anybody. I think they did fine on Mike Leake: the Giants may have a terrible farm system, but at least they got their best guy. Were I a Reds fan, I would be moderately impressed with my team's moves right now, just as I was when they traded Alfredo Simon and Mat Latos for useful, controllable players last winter. My concern would be this: By only trading the pending free agents and nobody else, that might telegraph some really stupid intentions for the winter. There's bound to be a temptation for Castellini and Jocketty to reload instead of rebuild, to keep treating Votto, Bruce, Frazier, and Phillips as a championship-caliber core. Don't do it, dudes. Save your money and plant the seeds. Maybe they'll grow before Votto is useless.

Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers were a lot worse in the first half than I thought they'd be, but I think they handled it just fine. Sending Aramis back to the Pirates for one last playoff run is something the baseball gods will smile upon, and getting a prospect package with a real top-tier headliner for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers could wind up as a classic win-win trade. Getting anything at all for Jonathan Broxton was the capper on a solid July for Doug Melvin. I don't know if I'd be that positive if I rooted for the Brewers, though. After the illusion of a .500 season in 2014, to collapse so completely that trading Gomez made sense would be a kick in the junk. So if I were a Brewers fan, I would listen to Dashboard Confessional in a dark room until November, and then see what happens after the World Series. That's probably what I'll do anyway, as my teams are just as bad.

Pittsburgh Pirates: In acquiring Tigers closer Joakim Soria at the deadline, the Buccos added an arm comparable to Jonathan Papelbon at a fraction of the financial cost. They also added a mediocre back-of-the-rotation arm in J.A. Happ to go with the ones they already had, a sort-of-usable middle relief option in Joe Blanton, and they've given a last chance to Aramis Ramirez thanks to the Josh Harrison injury. I can't complain about Soria- that was the kind of move that can loom large in the postseason by shortening the game. But all the rest were no-risk, no-reward moves, and this is a team that needed another bat and another legitimate starting pitcher if they had designs on leveling up this year. Unless the light goes on for Gregory Polanco, this could be another one-and-done October. For that matter, they've banked plenty of wins but their lead in the Wild Card isn't so big that they couldn't fall out of it entirely. I say this as someone who respects the hell out of the job Neal Huntington has done to get his team to this point, but I would be very disappointed and nervous if I were a Pirates fan. Just as a fan of baseball, I don't want the 2013 NLDS to be the furthest Andrew McCutchen goes with the Pirates. I want them to have a year, and I don't think 2015 is it.

St. Louis Cardinals: GM John Mozeliak basically shrugged his way through July- Jonathan Broxton, Steve Cishek, and Brandon Moss are the baseball version of a shrug- and why not: the Cardinals have the best record and second-best run differential in the game. Kolten Wong and Randal Grichuk are hitting, with Stephen Piscotty just called up to join them. Their front four starting pitchers have been nails, leading the best pitching staff in baseball, and that's without Adam Wainwright. All Cards fans have to worry about is Matt Holliday's health, but even if he's not good to go, the rest of the lineup's shown the ability to pick up the slack. I guess running into a buzzsaw team in the NLDS is still possible, but you can't worry about that now, and does anyone even think that's likely? I can't even imagine myself as a Cardinals fan. I'm not equipped to handle that much happiness.

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