Saturday, August 1, 2015

State of the Franchises: NL East

Atlanta Braves: Trading useful short-term assets Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson for two interesting arms is in keeping with the John Hart plan of making sure nobody but the Braves has any pitching in five years. That's fine. But their role in the Dodgers/Marlins megatrade makes even less sense today than it did yesterday, as it's been reported that Atlanta is still paying the nearly $10M owed to Bronson Arroyo. So Hart must really, really like Hector Olivera, because he essentially gave up Alex Wood, Jose Peraza, and Jim Johnson for Olivera, prospect Zach Bird, and a draft pick from Miami. I've sung Hart's praises in this space before, but I don't get this one at all on a short or long term level. If I rooted for the Braves this would confuse and disappoint me, but Hart would have the benefit of my doubt. He's made so many great moves, maybe this one turns out fine. No idea how, but there's always a chance.

Miami Marlins: One of my favorite fantasies is to pretend I own the Marlins. And every time they make a signature Jeffrey Loria move- like giving away Mat Latos just to dump Michael Morse's contract- I say to myself, "OK, I'll take over the team tomorrow." The reality of the Marlins and their owner is nothing less than the opposite of my fondest dreams. Their other deadline trades weren't so bad: Ivan Pineyro, the pitching prospect acquired in exchange for Dan Haren, has some upside. Catcher Tomas Telis was a surprisingly strong return for reliever Sam Dyson. And I have no real problem with dumping Steve Cishek on the Cardinals. But the yo-yo of building and tearing down in Miami is the same embarrassment it's always been. Sell the team, Jeffrey Loria. Please. I want my team of choice- as opposed to my White Sox fandom, which is an inherited trait- to act like a real major league franchise and not a fantasy team run by a guy who sucks at fantasy. If I owned the team, I would pick a direction and stick with it instead of these half-assed attempts to contend that undo all the work of building a farm system. I would also bring back the teal and black. I would use the current uniform design, but replace the "technicolor barfbag" palette with the old colors. I might add a little gold accent in place of the silver in the following picture, but that's all. The team would win and look good doing it. I'm the Everlasting Dave, and I approve this message.

New York Mets: As I said in my trade suggestions post, one big bat wasn't going to solve the Mets' offensive woes. But two league-average players in Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe, plus dynamic outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, fit the bill quite nicely. Hit with the year-long Jenrry Mejia suspension, they also went out and got reliever Tyler Clippard to fill the void. They gave up some prospect depth in each deal, but not from the very top of the system. Just fair prices for necessary upgrades. Am I crazy to think they're lucky the Carlos Gomez trade was scuttled? Zach Wheeler is such a big piece, and they added some lineup depth while keeping their injured, controllable number 2 starter in their back pocket for 2016. Among the three rebuilt teams who found success a year early, I think the Mets hit a sweet spot in supporting a playoff run without compromising the future. The Astros moved much more aggressively, giving up high-end guys as well as depth to push for the division title, while the Cubs did little more than sit on their hands. If I were a Mets fan, I don't think I would have wanted anything more or less than what they did this July. I also think my faith in Sandy Alderson would be at an all-time high.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies finally caught up to rebuilding expectations this July. It started with clearing Jonathan Papelbon's salary while bringing back an OK prospect. Then the long-awaited Cole Hamels blockbuster finally went down, with both quantity (Six players) and quality (Three of them top 100 prospects) coming back from Texas. Finally, they snagged two relief prospects from the Jays for slap-hitting outfielder Ben Revere. With this influx of young talent joining the fruits of three consecutive good drafts, the Phillies skipped right over the "signs of life in the minors" stage of rebuilding to the "collection of promising young talent" phase, with a solid six players in MLB.com's current top 100 prospects list. The major league team will be bad for at least another couple years, but that just means more high draft picks like the ones that netted J.P. Crawford, Aaron Nola, and Cornelius Randolph and more international bonus pool money they can use to find more Maikel Francos. And once enough of them make it to the show, there's no doubt the Phillies will swing the money hammer, just as they have over the past eight years. This renewed commitment to player development is the corpse reviver every Phillies fan needs after the 2013-14 hangover. It doesn't measure up to being a great team for five years, as they so recently were, but watching the pieces fall into place is its own kind of exciting. Just as long as you trust the architects.

Washington Nationals: The Nationals have had some bad injury luck this season, but they're still leading the division and approaching full health as we head into the home stretch. Joe Ross has been outstanding as Stephen Strasburg's replacement, and Clint Robinson has racked up a .349 OBP filling in for Denard Span and Jayson Werth. Tough to complain about that. They also added Jonathan Papelbon, possibly the best reliever traded at the deadline, moving Drew Storen back to his old setup man job. Nats fans can only hope that health and luck are on their side come October, because there's not much more Mike Rizzo and the Lerner family can do. This is a win-now team that's going to have to answer some tough questions after the season, but if Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer can bring this franchise its first title in October that'll take the edge off.  High expectations come with this much talent, and Harper of all people sets a fine example for how to handle them. If I were a Nationals fan I would be supremely confident in my team's ability to hold off the Mets in the regular season, and I would just have to wait and hope they can get lucky against the Cardinals, Dodgers, or any Wild Card upstarts in the playoffs. Harper the likely MVP, Max Scherzer and an outstanding bullpen tandem are pretty good guys on whom to pin your hopes.

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