Monday, August 3, 2015

State of the Franchises: AL Central

Chicago White Sox: Well, at least they didn't give players away like the Marlins. The whole AL Wild Card race is a morass of flawed teams, and it intrigues me that the Sox are part of it. Not a big part, though, because the offense is nonexistent. One could hope for Jose Abreu to catch fire for two months, and for guys like Alexei and Melky to get some positive regression. One could hope for their front four starters to lock in like the 2005 group. But with all the teams they'd have to pass to make it into the one-game series, as bad as those teams are, two of them are bound to have hot streaks that give them some separation. I think the Sox already had their streak, and they peaked at .500. So I'm disappointed, because I thought this was a good team in March, but I didn't want or expect a major selloff at the deadline. I'm sure Shark could have gotten more than a draft pick's worth of talent in a trade, but then we wouldn't have this ridiculous, laughable, but not completely stupid hope that he could start a playoff game. I still trust Rick Hahn to make good decisions, and when we end this season with somewhere between 77-81 wins, he'll get to work and I'll still care. But this whole season has been a big ball of meh.

Cleveland Indians: They decided against making the big move, trading away someone like the slumping Carlos Santana or the amazing Carlos Carrasco, and parted with a couple other minor pieces for minor returns. Rob Kaminsky, acquired from the Cardinals for Brandon Moss, looks like the big prize. It's worth noting, however, that a number of the Indians' best players were acquired as minor returns in minor trades. Finding the Yan Gomeses and Corey Klubers of the world is this front office's best skill. This year has sucked out loud for Cleveland, but for all we know Eric Stamets, the double-A shortstop the Angels gave up for David Murphy, is going to become a star. And with controllable, quality pitching depth, bona fide guys like Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley in the lineup, and the arrival of top prospect Francisco Lindor, it never feels like this team is more than a mid-level upgrade away from contending. Once the Bourn and Swisher contracts stop smothering this small-market franchise after the 2016 season, they might even be able to make that upgrade.

Detroit Tigers: Remember what I said about the morass of flawed teams going for the Wild Card? The Tigers were probably the best of those teams even if they did absolutely nothing, and they decided to White Flag it instead, cashing in David Price, Joakim Soria, and Yoenis Cespedes for prospects. To be fair, every one of those deals returned more prospect value than should have been expected, and few teams needed a farm system rejuvenation as much as the Tigers. On a personal level, I'm delighted, because it means I got one team out of five right in my AL Central predictions and I always like to see titans fall. And standing pat or trading for more help could definitely have been a waste, as the upside was making it to a one-game playoff. So yes, there's a strong argument to be made that this was the right call. It's just not an argument I would give half a crap about if I were a Tigers fan. The one-game playoff would be against an inferior team. And more importantly, the Tigers had already pushed almost all their chips into the pot. They'd bet, raised, and called until there was a huge pile of money in the middle, then they folded instead of putting their last five bucks in. If the rest of the team could manage to stay afloat while Miguel Cabrera healed up, they'd be looking at a stretch run with an ace, a solid closer, a still-fearsome middle of the lineup, and they'd be chasing some just-barely-better-than-average teams in Baltimore, Toronto, Anaheim, and Minnesota. The Detroit Tigers, four-time defending champions of the AL Central, property of Mike "Win me a World Series before I die" Ilitch, looked up at the Twins and the Angels and decided to pack it in. If I were a Tigers fan, I don't think I'd be able to talk about this, much less write about it.

Kansas City Royals: With the Royals, we might be facing the most important three months of baseball for any team in my lifetime. Think I'm exaggerating? I'm not. By trading for Cueto and Zobrist- both costly additions, but also perfect fits for the team- this is the real definition of all-in. They were going to win the division anyway, but now, rings are the thing. Maybe a return to the World Series will be enough. If they succeed, maybe the fans will come back en masse, maybe the Glass family will spend some pittance of their enormous wealth to keep the team's payroll and roster respectable, and maybe Dayton Moore will preside over the most complete and lasting franchise turnaround since Andrew Friedman fixed the Rays. IF they succeed. If they fail, there are no maybes, there are just truths. The Glass family will enact some version of the Jeffrey Loria doctrine: "We spent $100M and didn't win, so we might as well spend $40M and not win." Moore will spin this as "We were overextended with our payroll and we needed to get it back in line with our market size." The Process, as it used to be derisively referred to and is now respected as a real thing, will have to start all over again. The Royals will lose free agent Alex Gordon along with Zobrist and Cueto. Their aging roster and depleted farm system will require a trade of one or more of their core position players to make payroll and undo some of the damage the system sustained this July. In short, Kansas City's renaissance as a baseball town could last a mere 15 months. No pressure, Johnny. And remember, kids, it doesn't matter if the billionaire behind Wal-Mart owns your team. It doesn't matter that revenue sharing and bloated TV deals mean that every owner is making money. The amount of money spent on your team is all about how many people live in your town. For Royals fans, I offer the same advice I give myself every day I wake up cancer-free and moderately sane: Enjoy it while it lasts.

Minnesota Twins: They traded a couple young pitching prospects for Kevin Jepsen, a quality setup man and potential insurance against a Glen Perkins injury. OK, fine. Terry Ryan addressed one of the Twins' weaknesses without committing to the team's tenuous hold on a Wild Card spot. Obviously any fanbase would get fired up over an unexpected playoff berth, but I think Twins fans know that next year isn't here. Staying in the Wild Card race and getting above .500 in 2015 is enough to build some positive momentum for 2016, which should be the first full seasons for superstars-in-waiting Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. The organization still lacks high-ceiling arms, and settling for cheaper, non-strikeout-oriented pitchers is a bad habit that will only make it harder for this team to ascend. If they do find a way to pick up an ace this winter, they could definitely contend again, but next time it won't be a mirage. The only way I would have bought into the 2015 Twins is if they'd jumped the gun a little and brought in someone from the Price/Hamels/Cueto class, but those blockbuster buys have never been the Twins' DNA. It's for the best, anyway. The less emphasis you put on this year's stretch run, the happier you'll be as a Twins fan.

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