Monday, December 16, 2013

Winning the Winter, part 5

Magic tournament cancelled, nothing on TV, and I'm out of beer. I guess that means it's time to hit the most active December day in baseball history.

12/3: Reds trade C Ryan Hanigan to Diamondbacks for SP prospect David Holmberg. Diamondbacks trade Hanigan and RP Heath Bell to Rays for P Justin Choate and a player to be named later. Rays sign Hanigan, 3 years, $10.75M. I love three-way trades, whether they're ridiculously one-sided or they make sense from all sides. This is one of the latter. After signing Jose Molina to an extension, the Rays wanted more offense out of the catcher position. Even in a down year with part-time play, Hanigan walked more times than he struck out, and thanks to a perennially high walk rate he's regarded as a good offensive catcher. The Rays also added Bell, who might be almost finished, but might also provide the Rays with one of their signature out-of-nowhere great relief seasons. Remember, Fernando Rodney was a middle reliever with control issues before going to Tampa Bay and getting MVP votes. The Rays essentially acquired Bell and Hanigan for free by assuming half of Bell's 2013 salary. The Reds were going to give the bulk of catcher at-bats to 25-year-old former prospect Devin Mesoraco anyway, and they managed to get a low-ceiling, high-probability pitching prospect in Holmberg. Arizona was willing to give up that prospect just for the right to relieve themselves of Bell's salary. I think I like the Reds' side the most due to the value of young starting pitching, but if you wanted to argue that Hanigan is going to produce the most value of any of the players, that's fair. And while Arizona soon showed poor judgment in how they spent the money they saved, saving the money to begin with was a fine move. Three winners!

12/3: A's trade OF Seth Smith to Padres for RP Luke Gregerson. Billy Beane followed up his surprise acquisition of Jim Johnson by nabbing a strong setup man. With the exception of 2011, Gregerson has put up strong strikeout numbers and doesn't walk too many guys. Going from one pitcher's park to another should give him a strong platform year before he hits free agency. Smith should be a platoon outfielder, also one year from free agency. This move doesn't increase San Diego's chances of contending any time soon, but it should help Oakland some. A's get an easy win.

12/3: A's trade OF Michael Choice and IF Chris Bostick to Rangers for OF Craig Gentry and P Josh Lindblom. Choice has stuck in center field and shown good offensive ability through 4 years in the A's farm system. Gentry, formerly the Rangers' 4th outfielder, is a slightly above-average offensive player on the strength of good OBPs and baserunning. Lindblom is a quad-A throw-in, and Bostick is a 20 year old second baseman who played in A-ball last year. This might be a push, but I'll give the edge to the Rangers for getting the extra years of team control.

12/3: Yankees sign C Brian McCann, 5 years, $85M. It's good to have the old Yankees back- going all in on free agency to prop up a team that could be described as "aging" for fourteen years running.  It could be that there just isn't enough there to get New York back to the postseason, but this is a legitimate difference-making addition. It also seemed like a foregone conclusion: the Yankees had as much interest in going forward with Francisco Cervelli as McCann did in not getting obscenely paid. Five years may not be too long for him- he'll play next season at 30- and we might see some incredible offensive numbers that deliver on a $17M salary. Nonethesame, 2014 is likely to be his best year in pinstripes and the Yankees' best shot to win with him. I'll call this a win for McCann no matter how the next five years in the Bronx shake down.

12/3: Twins sign SP Ricky Nolasco, 4 years, $47M. The Twins had plenty of space in their rotation after an abysmal 2013, and they've already acted decisively to address it. Aside from a career year at age 25, Nolasco has bounced between 0.7 and 1.8 WAR his entire career- an average pitcher, give or take. Market value for this kind of performance would be something like $28-30M over the same 4 years, so it's hard to say Nolasco didn't win this winter. The Twins are paying a ridiculous premium for health and consistent kind-of-adequacy. Oh, and this is the largest free agent contract the team has ever handed out. It's times like this I'm grateful I'm a White Sox fan.

12/3: Rockies trade OF Dexter Fowler to Astros for OF Brandon Barnes and SP Jordan Lyles. First, the bad news for Houston: Fowler is a Coors Field product, as witnessed by five seasons of OPS's 200 points higher at home. He's also a below-average defensive center fielder. Now, the good news: Barnes is a replacement player, and while Lyles is young enough to improve, three years of declining strikeout rates and climbing walk rates do not bode well for that. So this trade is probably nothing for nothing, with odds of Fowler or Lyles returning value cancelling out. Maybe there's symbolic value in Houston trading for an established Major League outfielder? Sure. Let's give Houston the win. Whatever.

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