Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Winning the Winter, part 6

More thoughts about baseball while I try to process Bad Religion's Christmas album. This is going to be one fine year to be writing a "year in music" post.

12/4: A's sign SP Scott Kazmir, 2 years, $22M. As of now, the bigger-name starting pitchers are all still on the board, but the run on second-tier starters continues here. Kazmir showed better control in 2013 than he ever did before, and the health and command issues that seemingly ended his career in 2011 appear solved. This is still more risk than Oakland typically takes on. The upside is significant, but is there another player who signed an 8-figure deal this winter and could realistically contribute nothing at all? If I'm an A's fan, I'm bummed they didn't get Tim Hudson instead. If I'm Scott Kazmir, I'm doing the happy prospector dance all day every day till spring training.

12/4: Tigers sign RP Joe Nathan, 2 years, $20M. While the huge number of potential closers on the market depressed offers for everyone else, Nathan still snagged a crazy-good deal for a 39-year-old reliever thanks to his status as probably the best one available. His walk rate jumped last year, but an unreal opponents' batting average meant his overall value was around his career peak. From Detroit's standpoint, this is just insurance against a repeat of the 2013 Bruce Rondon/ Jose Valverde shenanigans, and it's an expensive way to go. Even if we assume Nathan remains an elite 9th-inning option, the Tigers could probably have gotten more value out of signing two lesser relievers- keeping Jose Veras and Joaquin Benoit, just to name the obvious- for about the same cost. The blueprint of "Scherzer/Verlander/Sanchez throws 8 innings, Nathan throws 1" won't hold up all that often, so Dave Dombrowski better figure out where his depth's coming from right quick. Nathan wins for being an 8-figure closer, and the Tigers could potentially win if they make the postseason again. I'm not sure they will.

12/4: White Sox sign 1B Paul Konerko, 1 year, $2.25M. Ol' Paulie might be done, but good on the White Sox for letting him end his career on his terms. We've been lucky to watch him for these past 14 years and I'll miss him when he's gone. That said, Rick Hahn did the right thing in finding a new long-term solution (hopefully) in Jose Dariel Abreu. If Konerko hits well and earns a lineup spot over Abreu/Dunn, cool. If he doesn't and this is a farewell tour, that's ok too. Even though $2,250,000 is more money than I'm likely to see in my lifetime, I still feel like Paulie deserves credit for taking a massive pay cut that reflects his current value as a player. It's the kind of thing a player with more accomplishment than ego would do. And yet, we still live in a world where Derek Jeter is the poster-boy for classy baseballing.

12/4: Red Sox sign C A.J. Pierzynski, 1 year, $8.25M. Speaking of aging members of the 2005 White Sox, I love me some A.J. The advanced stats don't agree; they've got him somewhere between below-average and average regular for every year. But for 12 years running, he's been a durable starting catcher, supplied some power, and become as beloved by his teammates as he is behated by the rest of the league. He fits well with the post-Manny Red Sox plan of bringing in guys who are good baseball players and great teammates. I don't see any way this doesn't end with Boston becoming the fifth city to fall for A.J. They'll take a downgrade in production from Saltalamacchia, but a strong upgrade in Idiotness.

12/5: Mariners sign UT Willie Bloomquist, 2 years, $5.8M. Sigh. Stupid Mariners. Let's do a couple more so I don't end this post feeling bad for Dave Schoenfield.

12/5: Twins sign SP Phil Hughes, 3 years, $24M. As bad as the Nolasco signing is and will be, I think this one's got a chance to provide real value. $8M is what a number 4 or 5 starter makes these days, and getting out of Yankee Stadium might just let Hughes, age 27, come into his own as something a little better than that. A look at his home/road splits supports this to a degree, in that his road ERA is close to a full run lower than his home ERA and he's allowed more than twice as many home runs at home.

12/5: Brewers trade OF Norichika Aoki to Royals for RP Will Smith. The Brewers add a good lefty reliever who hasn't hit arbitration yet. Homers are a concern, but he boasts a shiny strikeout rate. In Aoki, the Royals get a good defensive right fielder who draws walks, and is also pre-arb for another year. The anti-Jeff Francoeur, basically. I see this as a steal for the Royals, because Smith would have to cut his homers allowed in half, maintain his strikeout rate, and pitch in the rotation to match Aoki's value. Weird trade for the Brewers to make. Clearing a space for Khris Davis might work out, but they should have been able to get more.

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