Saturday, December 21, 2013

Winning the Winter, part 7

Teams keep making moves, so I have to keep saying stuff about them. That's how it works.

12/6: Marlins sign C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 3 years, $21M. In an offseason where most free agents are exceeding their expected contracts, this one stands out as a team-friendly deal. Poor OBP's and strikeout rates have nearly canceled out Salty's power throughout his career, but he can hit better than most catchers. His defensive numbers are mixed, but he ranked second in the AL last year in throwing out baserunners. To Marlins fans, the addition of any above-average position player should feel like a huge win, and that's how I see this one. Unless Marlins Park completely robs him of his offensive value, he'll more than earn his contract.

12/6: Astros sign SP Scott Feldman, 3 years, $30M. This is the opposite of the Salty deal. Feldman is a well below-average pitcher, and there's no reason to believe he's about to turn a corner. The argument of "someone has to throw those innings" only flies when you're defending cheap, short-term contracts like the kind Feldman should have been offered. He won't even be an appealing piece of July trade bait unless he stays healthy and adequate till July 2016. On the other hand, if the goal is to make it 4 first-overall draft picks in 4 years, then the Astros win this deal.

12/6: Red Sox re-sign 1B Mike Napoli, 2 years, $32M. Napoli was in line for a three year deal last winter before his physical revealed a hip issue and the Red Sox lowered their offer to $5M with incentives for one year. After he hit all the incentives in that contract, the Sox chose to keep him around for two more years. Had they just kept the original contract, they would have saved something in the $12M range. Still, these are the World Series champions we're talking about, and keeping their second-best power hitter and first-best beard seems like a good call. There's risk, but power is expensive and hard to find. I think the Red Sox did well to keep what they had.

12/7: Yankees sign CF Jacoby Ellsbury, 7 years, $153M. I'll admit it, I enjoyed reading the news of this signing. While everyone was waiting for the Yankees to "get serious" about negotiating with Robinson Cano, they go out and steal one of the best players from their biggest rival instead. That was a sick burn on both Cano and the Red Sox, who I count as losers here. That doesn't necessarily make the Yankees winners, though. Once you go up over $20M a year on a player, it makes it difficult for the player to produce enough to justify the cost. Right now, Ellsbury's an asset whose combination of up-the-middle defense, speed, and on-base ability enable him to deliver that kind of value. There's little question that he'll be worth it in 2014, and little question that he'll be an albatross by 2020. It's just a matter of when he stops being a borderline MVP candidate, and how far this winter's spending spree takes the Yankees. One World Series ring, especially on the heels of Boston's third title of the century, would make all kinds of negative consequences palatable to the Steinbrenners and Yankee fans. But since "I guess we'll see" is a copout, I'll say I think Cano will come closer to living up to his contract than Ellsbury. And who knows, if the Yankees had just gone to $200M early in November, maybe that gets it done with Cano.

12/7: Yankees re-sign SP Hiroki Kuroda, 1 year, $16M. With the Yankees so starved for pitching, this deal was practically a necessity. Kuroda's been outstanding in his two years in New York, and although he'll be 39 before the start of the season, he'll still likely be the Yankees' best or second-best starting pitcher. I think the people of Japan are losers here since Kuroda's pitching career will now likely end stateside. The Yankees are winners in the sense that had Kuroda chosen Japan or retirement, it wouldn't have been realistic for them to build a decent pitching staff without blowing past the luxury tax threshold. It might not be realistic anyway.

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