And we're back for round 2 of a Hot Stove season that's already given us plenty of heat.
11/17: Braves trade OF Jason Heyward and RP Jordan Walden to the Cardinals for SP Shelby Miller and SP prospect Tyrell Jenkins. We've had some more mind-boggling transactions since this one took place, but in terms of present-day impact it's hard to top adding a player like Heyward. As if there's ever any doubt, the Cards are now primed to enter 2015 as division favorites yet again. That said, Atlanta did well to get Miller and Jenkins in exchange for one year of Heyward and two of Walden. I think people were too hasty in taking the shine off of Miller's star, and there's quite a good chance he turns into an affordable and productive player in Atlanta. Because of the massive gap in years of control and cost certainty, I prefer the Braves' end of the deal.
11/18: Blue Jays sign C Russell Martin, 5 years, $82M. This is basically Brian McCann money, and it's not hard to argue that Martin's worth it. He built a reputation as a great leader of his pitching staff in Pittsburgh while simultaneously posting a .402 OBP in 2014. Still, this is a contract that violates the first principle of free agency: pay for what the player will do, not for what he's already done. Toronto's pushing a lot of chips into the middle of the table in a sincere effort to win the winter, and I respect that. On the other hand, their similar efforts from two years ago have thus far failed to end the Jays' playoff drought. If 2015 is a magical ride through October that revitalizes baseball in Toronto, it's all worth it. If it's not, then this is just another obscene free agent deal given to an over-30 player. It's hard for me to see this any way other than a big win for Martin.
11/18: White Sox sign RP Zach Duke, 3 years, $15M. This is not my most favorite Rick Hahn move ever. There's not a lot in the track record or the peripherals to suggest that Duke is much better than your typical middle reliever, except for a completely bananas jump in strikeout rate in 2014. If that's for real, then maybe this is fine, and I do love the spirit of the whole "Trying to win" thing. As for the winner of this transaction, well, Duke and his agent kind of nailed this one. When you're somewhere around the middle of the ten best free agent relievers and you get a three-year guarantee, that's winning.
11/19: Athletics sign DH Billy Butler, 3 years, $30M. And here's another one for the "smart baseball guys doing dumb stuff" file. This probably isn't crazy exorbitant, but the downsides are striking in particular because he signed with Oakland. Bob Melvin uses a series of platoons and positional rotations to split up at-bats and get the most offensive value he can from each position. A full-time DH with limited power potential and a declining offensive profile simply doesn't have a place on this team. That's the Oakland-specific downside. The more general one is that Butler's days as a useful player might already be over. Let's also give a loss to Royals GM Dayton Moore, who could have gotten some value simply by exercising Butler's 2015 option and trading him for whatever was offered.
11/23: Pirates trade 1B Ike Davis to the Athletics for an international bonus pool slot. The full story of the A's offseason is incomplete, but so far it seems a mess. At this moment, Davis and the aforementioned Butler are going to take the lion's share of 1B/DH at bats, Brandon Moss is the everyday left fielder, and the middle infield is disgraceful. Rather than speculate on Billy Beane's endgame, I'll just evaluate the Davis acquisition on its own merits, say meh, and move on.
11/25: White Sox sign 1B Adam LaRoche, 2 years, $25M. I'm not crazy about the fit here: both LaRoche and Jose Abreu are justifiably going to want to play first, and one of them is going to be forced into a primary DH role. There's nothing wrong with the years or the money; it's right in line with what LaRoche is going to be worth assuming he doesn't decline immediately. I guess I'm obsessing a little on the small chance that messing with Abreu's role on the team could have a negative impact on his production, which (along with Chris Sale's continued health) is the biggest factor in returning the Palehose to contention. The odds are good that LaRoche turns out to be the perfect two in a one-two punch with Abreu. There's every reason to be optimistic that the Sox' offense, led by those two and complimented by Alexei, Avi, and Eaton, turns out to be a real threat. But as much as my brain says that my team just added a left handed bat with middle-of-the-order pop and checked off the number one item on their shopping list, I just don't feel that awesome about it.
11/25: Red Sox sign IF Hanley Ramirez, 4 years, $88M with a vesting option for a fifth year. Like Oakland's roster shuffle, this is another deal that requires a full offseason's worth of perspective to evaluate properly, but let's try anyway. Most importantly, Hanley is a monster at the plate, and moving from Dodger Stadium to Fenway won't hurt. He'll play next year at 31, so while the Red Sox are paying for at least a little of his decline, he's got a shot at outperforming his contract and giving the Sox at least one MVP-caliber year. So in terms of context-independent value, Boston did great and I'll declare them the winner. The thing is, context is everything. Ramirez should have been moved off short years ago (remember the Marlins tried it and he pouted/tanked his way into a trade?), but the Dodgers sucked up the bad defense because his bat more than made up for it. So where do you play him? The next entry in this post will claim the obvious option of third base, and with Pedroia and Bogaerts on board, the middle infield is spoken for. Ortiz has DH locked up. Napoli's at first. That leaves the outfield, where the Red Sox have seven Major League-quality guys jockeying for three spots even before you add Ramirez to the mix. If one could field two lineups instead of a lineup and a pitching staff and play baseball that way, this would be a great team. Instead, I think Red Sox fans have a few pennies-on-the-dollar trades of guys like Yoenis Cespedes, Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava, or possibly Mike Napoli to look forward to. Or maybe they carry the extra outfielder, decide Bogaerts needs more time in the minors, and let Hanley do what he calls "playing shortstop" for a season. Look, there's enough talent here to make the 2015 Red Sox sort of a modern version of the 90's Indians, where they score so many runs that the Joe Kellys of the world are good enough to win games. But the transformation from basement dwellers back to World Series champs is only half complete, and right now, it looks kinda ugly.
11/25: Red Sox sign 3B Pablo Sandoval, 5 years, $95M. As the Sandoval signing and the Ramirez signing are inextricably linked, a lot of what I said above applies here. The major differences are that Sandoval has a position (though he's closer to the worst than the best defensive third baseman) and Sandoval isn't worth his contract. I initially thought the move from San Francisco to Boston would boost his numbers, but the Panda has actually had much more success at home than on the road in his career. You would think Boston is getting the second half of Sandoval's prime, but given his body type it's hard to imagine him aging well. For the $19M annual investment to work out, Boston is going to have to get the Good Panda of 2009 and 2011 (a borderline MVP candidate) and not the Mediocre Panda of the past three years, who is little more than a league-average player. Doesn't strike me as the kind of guy you want to bring into an already crowded roster situation, but hey. Panda got paid.
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