12/13/14: Twins sign RHP Ervin Santana, 4 years, $55M. The Twins' offense has already arrived, but with their best pitching prospects either floundering or years away, Terry Ryan is doubling down on "sign average free agent starters and hope for the best". While last year's Ricky Nolasco signing is a disaster so far, Ryan did pick a winner in Phil Hughes. I don't think Santana's going to completely collapse, as he at least has some AL adequacy on his resume, but he wasn't much better than average at his peak and he's entering the typical decline years. Santana's the winner because damn that's a lot of money for a number 4 starter. I think the Twins slipped into the title of "least interesting team in baseball" this month, and if Buxton, Sano, and company bust, they might stay there for a while.
12/15/14: Yankees re-sign 3B Chase Headley, 4 years, $52M. Setting aside his fluky MVP-caliber 2012 season, Headley's still been an above-average hitter who plays third base as well as anyone in the league. And with another year separating him from the injuries that marred his 2013, there's a chance- not a huge one, but more than zero- that he's got another ridiculous offensive season in him. At worst, nobody has to worry about Alex Rodriguez playing third base anymore, which is something the Yankees wanted to avoid. They got a good player here, and they didn't even overpay.
12/15/14: Astros sign SS Jed Lowrie, 3 years, $23M. So they haven't signed Scherzer- yet- but Jeff Luhnow did find a position player willing to take Jim Crane's money. Lowrie had a solid half-season in Houston in 2012 in between the injuries, so there's some familiarity there- both with the player, and his frequent visits to the DL. As aberrant as broken fingers and neck strains might look, the biggest predictor of future injuries is past injuries, and Lowrie's got quite a collection. That explains the relatively low annual value on the contract. The past two seasons in Oakland, though, they were pretty good: a well-above-average bat for a shortstop, defense that was playable if not gold glove-worthy, and just one short DL stint. You know what, I talked myself into it. If Lowrie's done putting his fingers places where they get broken, the Astros got themselves a player. They aren't good yet, but they're getting less jokey.
12/16/14: Rays trade OF Matt Joyce to Angels for RHP Kevin Jepsen. Joyce slots into the Angels' corner outfield/DH rotation with Josh Hamilton, C.J. Cron and Kole Calhoun, and whatever power they lose by benching Cron or Calhoun, they make up for in Joyce's reasonably impressive on-base ability. That adds some balance-if not value- to the Angels' otherwise hackerish lineup. The back end of the Rays' bullpen still looked like an area of strength to me, but I guess they wanted one more closer-quality arm in case Jake McGee is out for a while. Right now, they're looking at Stephen Souza, Kevin Kiermaier, and David Dejesus for their own corner outfield/DH slots. I'd rather keep Joyce than run that out there, but maybe I'm underestimating the younger guys, or maybe there's another move coming. Along those lines, this looked a lot better for Tampa Bay before their most recent blockbuster. For now, win to the Angels.
12/16/14: Dodgers sign RHP Brandon McCarthy, 4 years, $48M. I liked reading Dodgers bossman Andrew Friedman's comments on this contract and the Brett Anderson deal. To briefly restate: If there's a guy with an injury history who you think has turned a corner, you'd rather sign him than a guy with a clean health history but recent warning signs. But McCarthy just hasn't been that good, healthy or not. $12M a year is probably about right, but if the choices were McCarthy at this price or Francisco Liriano at his price of 3/$39M, I would take Liriano. And I would take Jason Hammel at 2/$20M over either one. Maybe that half season in New York was the real Brandon McCarthy, in which case the Dodgers just picked the perfect guy to fill out their rotation. But if you're the Dodgers and money isn't a limiting factor, why wouldn't you just give James Shields too many years and too much money?
12/16/14: Royals sign DH Kendrys Morales, 2 years, $17M. Okay, so this is one of those deals that everyone is sure won't work. I'm not. Here's the problems with Morales: he's had a few serious injuries in his career, he sat out the first two months of the 2014 season due to a qualifying offer he should have just accepted and never got things going, and his K/BB ratio is not where you want a middle of the order slugger to be. Here's the good stuff: when he's healthy, he hits for both pretty good average and pretty good power. Um, isn't that exactly what the Royals (and every other team) need out of their DH? I mean, they still could have exercised Billy Butler's option and either kept him or gotten something of value for him. This doesn't negate that. But I don't think it makes another magical run in 2015 any less likely than it was before they signed Morales. I think I have to give the win to the Royals here. *is surprised*
12/16/14: Indians sign RHP Gavin Floyd, 1 year, $4M plus incentives. When the Braves gave Floyd basically this same deal a year ago, I said it would probably work out fine, because Gavin Floyd gave the best years of his career to the White Sox and that makes him great forever in this space. Sadly, he only managed nine starts for Atlanta before going under the knife thanks to a fractured elbow, and now he has to go the incentive-based single year route again. If he's healthy, he's a perfectly adequate number 4 with deep AL Central roots. If not, Cleveland can scrape together a back of the rotation from the likes of Zach McAllister and Josh Tomlin. What I'm rooting for is Floyd good, Indians bad, June trade out of the AL Central to a team I can get behind. What I'm predicting is an occasionally injured, often mediocre season from Floyd.
12/16/14: White Sox sign OF Melky Cabrera, 3 years, $42M. Yet again, the White Sox needed a specific player and got him. First it was a left-handed 1B/DH. Then a bullpen tandem. Then a righthanded number 2 starting pitcher. This time, they needed a productive number 2 hitter, preferably an outfielder. Melky Cabrera is exactly that guy, nothing more, nothing less. Rick Hahn makes GMing look easy, and he makes commentary pointless. When he took over from Kenny Williams, he said "Huh. We have no prospects. *gets prospects*" This winter, he's been all "So any team that tries to win can win? Cool! *tries to win*" Maybe Cabrera's not a defensive asset, and maybe he'll just be OK and not electric at the plate. Nobody in Chicago will care because he's not Dayan Viciedo, and that's all we ever wanted. Not Dayan Viciedo.
12/15/14: Astros sign SS Jed Lowrie, 3 years, $23M. So they haven't signed Scherzer- yet- but Jeff Luhnow did find a position player willing to take Jim Crane's money. Lowrie had a solid half-season in Houston in 2012 in between the injuries, so there's some familiarity there- both with the player, and his frequent visits to the DL. As aberrant as broken fingers and neck strains might look, the biggest predictor of future injuries is past injuries, and Lowrie's got quite a collection. That explains the relatively low annual value on the contract. The past two seasons in Oakland, though, they were pretty good: a well-above-average bat for a shortstop, defense that was playable if not gold glove-worthy, and just one short DL stint. You know what, I talked myself into it. If Lowrie's done putting his fingers places where they get broken, the Astros got themselves a player. They aren't good yet, but they're getting less jokey.
12/16/14: Rays trade OF Matt Joyce to Angels for RHP Kevin Jepsen. Joyce slots into the Angels' corner outfield/DH rotation with Josh Hamilton, C.J. Cron and Kole Calhoun, and whatever power they lose by benching Cron or Calhoun, they make up for in Joyce's reasonably impressive on-base ability. That adds some balance-if not value- to the Angels' otherwise hackerish lineup. The back end of the Rays' bullpen still looked like an area of strength to me, but I guess they wanted one more closer-quality arm in case Jake McGee is out for a while. Right now, they're looking at Stephen Souza, Kevin Kiermaier, and David Dejesus for their own corner outfield/DH slots. I'd rather keep Joyce than run that out there, but maybe I'm underestimating the younger guys, or maybe there's another move coming. Along those lines, this looked a lot better for Tampa Bay before their most recent blockbuster. For now, win to the Angels.
12/16/14: Dodgers sign RHP Brandon McCarthy, 4 years, $48M. I liked reading Dodgers bossman Andrew Friedman's comments on this contract and the Brett Anderson deal. To briefly restate: If there's a guy with an injury history who you think has turned a corner, you'd rather sign him than a guy with a clean health history but recent warning signs. But McCarthy just hasn't been that good, healthy or not. $12M a year is probably about right, but if the choices were McCarthy at this price or Francisco Liriano at his price of 3/$39M, I would take Liriano. And I would take Jason Hammel at 2/$20M over either one. Maybe that half season in New York was the real Brandon McCarthy, in which case the Dodgers just picked the perfect guy to fill out their rotation. But if you're the Dodgers and money isn't a limiting factor, why wouldn't you just give James Shields too many years and too much money?
12/16/14: Royals sign DH Kendrys Morales, 2 years, $17M. Okay, so this is one of those deals that everyone is sure won't work. I'm not. Here's the problems with Morales: he's had a few serious injuries in his career, he sat out the first two months of the 2014 season due to a qualifying offer he should have just accepted and never got things going, and his K/BB ratio is not where you want a middle of the order slugger to be. Here's the good stuff: when he's healthy, he hits for both pretty good average and pretty good power. Um, isn't that exactly what the Royals (and every other team) need out of their DH? I mean, they still could have exercised Billy Butler's option and either kept him or gotten something of value for him. This doesn't negate that. But I don't think it makes another magical run in 2015 any less likely than it was before they signed Morales. I think I have to give the win to the Royals here. *is surprised*
12/16/14: Indians sign RHP Gavin Floyd, 1 year, $4M plus incentives. When the Braves gave Floyd basically this same deal a year ago, I said it would probably work out fine, because Gavin Floyd gave the best years of his career to the White Sox and that makes him great forever in this space. Sadly, he only managed nine starts for Atlanta before going under the knife thanks to a fractured elbow, and now he has to go the incentive-based single year route again. If he's healthy, he's a perfectly adequate number 4 with deep AL Central roots. If not, Cleveland can scrape together a back of the rotation from the likes of Zach McAllister and Josh Tomlin. What I'm rooting for is Floyd good, Indians bad, June trade out of the AL Central to a team I can get behind. What I'm predicting is an occasionally injured, often mediocre season from Floyd.
12/16/14: White Sox sign OF Melky Cabrera, 3 years, $42M. Yet again, the White Sox needed a specific player and got him. First it was a left-handed 1B/DH. Then a bullpen tandem. Then a righthanded number 2 starting pitcher. This time, they needed a productive number 2 hitter, preferably an outfielder. Melky Cabrera is exactly that guy, nothing more, nothing less. Rick Hahn makes GMing look easy, and he makes commentary pointless. When he took over from Kenny Williams, he said "Huh. We have no prospects. *gets prospects*" This winter, he's been all "So any team that tries to win can win? Cool! *tries to win*" Maybe Cabrera's not a defensive asset, and maybe he'll just be OK and not electric at the plate. Nobody in Chicago will care because he's not Dayan Viciedo, and that's all we ever wanted. Not Dayan Viciedo.
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