Wherein we cover the action of the first half of the winter meetings.
12/8/14: Athletics trade 1B/OF Brandon Moss to Indians for IF prospect Joey Wendle. Moss is yet another player who revived his career in Oakland after multiple other teams cut bait on him. He rewarded the A's with 76 homers and 4.8 WAR over three inexpensive seasons, but the WAR figure is not really a good indicator because it's pretty clear Moss is a DH and his value's been compromised by being forced to play in the field. He might face the same obstacle in Cleveland, where he, Nick Swisher, and Carlos Santana all have a good case for being the everyday DH. On the Oakland side, Moss is far from irreplaceable, but this is part of a series of Billy Beane moves that don't make sense yet. Joey Wendle could conceivably be part of the solution to the A's lack of middle infielders, and it's always good when you can get a player whose at-bat music picks itself, but he's hardly a reason by himself to further weaken the major league team. I don't get it for either team. I mean, Cleveland really doesn't need Moss, they're a budget conscious team, and his power numbers mean he's probably going to be paid pretty well in arbitration. So I guess Oakland wins because they save some money.
12/8/14: Diamondbacks sign OF Yasmany Tomas, 6 years, $68.5M. As I said last year with Jose Abreu, we're kidding ourselves if we think we can predict what Cuban pro players are going to do in the majors. Aroldis Chapman and Abreu came over and dominated immediately, Yoenis Cespedes is a useful but flawed player, and there have been more than a few busts. I looked at Abreu's Serie Nacional numbers a year ago and they made my head explode. Tomas's stats are respectable, but he'll have to fully repeat them in Arizona to be a star player. Another concern is that the Diamondbacks want to give him the third base job, and he is a large man. They do have some advanced third base prospects in the minors, so if that doesn't pan out it doesn't ruin everything, but if I were Dave Stewart I would try to trade Mark Trumbo, assume Tomas is an outfielder, and go from there. Working in Tomas's favor is his age (24) and people's tendency to base predictions off of the most recent data they arbitrarily decide is relevant- in this case, Abreu's monster rookie season. Maybe Tomas is another stud, and even if he isn't, $11M isn't totally unreasonable for the prime years of a decent player. Taking away the positional nonsense, I like the signing for that reason: Arizona isn't paying for the best possible version of Tomas, they're paying for what he's most likely to be.
12/9/14: Athletics trade RHPs Jeff Samardzija and Michael Ynoa to White Sox for IF Marcus Semien, C Josh Phegley, RHP Chris Bassitt, and 1B Rangel Ravelo. Have you ever been in a fantasy league and gotten a trade offer that's clearly "All the guys I don't want for the one guy of yours I want"? That's the offer Billy Beane got for Samardzija, and he freaking took it. I'm still amused. The biggest name going back to Oakland is probably Semien, who does finally give them a usable middle infielder, but beyond that Bassitt is the only one who registers as a prospect, and that's only because the A's and White Sox both have miserable farm systems. The argument against this is that Beane got four controllable players for one, and that's fine, but I've seen Phegley and Semien. You can have them, Oakland. Ynoa, a 23-year-old reliever, is about as notable as any of the names going back to the A's, and Samardzija will give the Sox a strong top of the rotation when he joins Sale and Quintana. There's still work to be done on the Sox- I would really like to see an upgrade at second, third, and/or catcher- but the team's direction is clear, their moves make obvious sense in that context, and their division won't be particularly strong in 2015. I love everything about this trade.
12/9/14: Diamondbacks trade C Miguel Montero to Cubs for RHP prospects Jeferson Mejia and Zack Godley. This is a pure salary dump for Arizona. Montero is set to make $40M for the next 3 seasons, and is a player in decline at 31. Godley is a 24-year-old who hasn't yet made it to double-A, and Mejia is a 20-year-old reliever with some potential. MLBTR mentions the possibility of platooning Montero with Wellington Castillo, which sounds plausible. Of course, maybe Montero is just following the usual age curve for catchers and he'll be finished before his contract is. That's the risk, and I think it's a reasonable one to take. The Cubs have the money to spend and trading for an expensive catcher is one way of loudly proclaiming that the transition from building to contending is underway. It may or may not work out baseball-wise for the Cubs (seriously, 31-year-old catcher. Your guess is as good as mine.), but getting out from under Montero's contract is definitely good for Arizona. Even if it means they have to use a dude named Tuffy at catcher in 2015. Seriously. Tuffy Gosewisch. That is the name of a real person.
12/10/14: Phillies trade LHP Antonio Bastardo to Pirates for LHP prospect Joely Rodriguez. Pittsburgh gets a strong second lefty for their bullpen, and Philly gets a 23-year-old who hasn't shown any signs of prospectitude as of yet. I guess it's good to see Ruben Amaro get to work, but it's better to see the Pirates keep adding.
12/10/14: White Sox sign RHP David Robertson, 4 years, $46M. I'm kind of baseball hipsterish in that I see paying closers more than setup men as very 2004. You only have so much money to spend on incremental free agent upgrades, and the difference between the best relief pitcher and the worst is something like 4 wins, whereas the difference between an elite starting pitcher or position player and the worst is more like 8. More importantly, the difference between that $12M closer and that $4M middle reliever is maybe one win. That said, my remarks on the Samardzija trade stand here as well. The Sox weren't going to be competitive with the bullpen they had at the end of the 2014 season. Duke and Robertson are expensive fixes relative to their value, but together their additions probably mean the bullpen will be serviceable in 2015. And David Robertson is probably the best relief pitcher to hit free agency since Jonathan Papelbon, who got $4 more over the same term after the 2011 season. Are they overpaid? Obviously. Every free agent that gets a multiyear deal is overpaid because that's how the market works. Teams that offer reasonable contracts are eliminated in the first round of bidding. But at least the Sox overpaid for the exact player they needed.
12/10/14: Cubs sign LHP Jon Lester, 6 years, $155M. A chatter on ESPN.com asked a great question last week: "When did everyone decide Jon Lester is an ace?" Um, I don't know. Let's forget about the mystique and aura of everyone who helps Boston win a World Series or two, and just look at the player. He's about to turn 31. He was dominant in the regular season from 2008-11, then bad, then good, then very good in again 2014. He earned a reputation as a postseason stud by going 4-1 in the 2013 postseason, but bombed in the A's only 2014 postseason game, which was only one game so really I shouldn't bother mentioning it. The problem with knowing all this is people- apparently well paid, knowledgeable, powerful people in the baseball world- are paying for what he's already done and not what he will do. They know how Jon Lester spent his 20's, and now so do you. In those years, he had a handful of seasons that delivered something like $26M worth of value. Does anybody think he's going to be that good in his 30's? Maybe this is just the statement signing it was meant to be, when some hack realized "Hey the Cubs are rebuilding and Jon Lester is a free agent in 2014 OMG THE CUBS SHOULD TOTALLY SIGN JON LESTER!!!!ONE" two years ago. Let's ignore that the Cubs could have gotten more value out of signing two mid-rotation guys than one Lester. Let's forget about developing your own starting pitching. Let's just nod appreciatively at Hoyer and Epstein cause they got their guy. Go Cubs go.
More things are happening as I write this, but I'll wait for some official announcements before I do another one of these.
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