Catching up to real-time in advance of next week's Baseball Christmas, aka the winter meetings...
11/28: Athletics trade 3B Josh Donaldson to Blue Jays for 3B Brett Lawrie and three prospects: LHP Sean Nolin, RHP Kendall Graveman, and SS Franklin Barreto. I joined every other baseball fan in completely losing my mind over this trade, but I've had about a week to collect myself and I think I'm good. Josh Donaldson is a fine player, one of the best third basemen around and utterly deserving of his top-10 MVP finishes the past two years. I don't want to downplay that. Toronto is a considerably better Major League team for doing this trade, and if there's any money left for pitching, they're looking like a potential 2015 powerhouse. Now let's talk about what else Donaldson is: about to turn 29 and get expensive, which is when the A's usually get rid of their really good players. Coming off two great years, he was never going to be as attractive a trade chip as he is right now, so he got cashed in. If they were going to deal Donaldson, it had to be a package like this. The haul isn't exciting in comparison to what Donaldson is- again, RIGHT NOW- but it's a ton of value. They got a much younger third baseman back in Lawrie, one with high offensive potential, albeit with less team control than the guy they gave up. They also got three minor leaguers, two of whom should be mid-to-back-end rotation guys by 2016, and one- Barreto- who has all the makings of elite prospectness. I'm not going to cop out with a win-win here, even though I not only see both teams' perspectives, I admire their respective visions. This is a trade the A's had to make for franchise health purposes, and it's a trade the Jays were lucky they got to make for winning the World Series purposes. I think that makes the Jays the winner. It also makes me wonder why the teams I care about didn't get involved. Donaldson would have looked great at the Cell Block or Jeffrey Loria's Empty Paradise next year.
11/28: Royals trade RHP Aaron Crow to Marlins for LHP Brian Flynn and RHP Reid Redman. Flynn and Redman are probably nothing. Crow is slightly older nothing. Win to the Royals, I guess? Honestly, I decided to put this one in the post before I looked at Crow's numbers. I thought he was significantly better than he is. Oh well. They can't all be Wheeler-for-Beltran.
12/1: Royals decline to tender a contract to LHP Francisley Bueno. This is a tremendous opportunity for the other 29 teams to have the Best Name in Baseball in their organization for 2015. Rest assured that I will be on top of this all winter. Don't let me down, other 29 baseball teams.
12/3: Blue Jays trade LHP J.A. Happ to Mariners for OF Michael Saunders. Both these guys are slightly below-average, with two years of team control remaining. MLBTR told me Happ added a couple MPH to his fastball in 2014, so that's something, but even then he wasn't particularly good and pitchers don't suddenly get better at age 32 anymore. Saunders took a big step forward in his age-27 season, admittedly in about half a season of plate appearances, but his platoon splits suggest he could be fine as an everyday outfielder. Both these teams have a glaring need for pitching, but I think Saunders delivers some value (while filling a clear need for the Jays) and Happ doesn't. Win for Toronto.
12/3: Twins sign OF Torii Hunter, 1 year, $10.5M. Both Hunter and the Twins were pretty great, back in the early 2000's. He can still hit a little, but a yard sign that says "Torii Hunter's Gold Glove Reputation" would play the outfield about as well as Torii himself would in 2015. If he's the regular DH, I kind of like this as a value play. I mean, are there any other productive hitters lining up to take 1-year deals to play for the Twins? But every inning he plays in the field knocks down that marginal value, and there's a chance this is the Jeter situation redux, where everyone says "I know he can't play defense anymore. Do you want to be the one to tell him?" and they suck up a few extra losses because nobody wants to spit on Superman's cape. As a White Sox fan who might get to watch Hawk Harrelson call some Torii Hunter defense next year, I think I'm the winner. There are no losers when Hawk is involved.
12/3: Royals sign RHP Luke Hochevar, 2 years, $10M. The former first-overall draft pick finally came into his own in 2013 with an excellent season in the bullpen, and then promptly snapped a ligament and missed 2014. With this signing, the Royals now have four closer-quality right handed relievers, and $22M committed to them next year. Beyond that, my concern is the $2M in incentives if Hochevar is used as a starter- aka, that thing he was terrible at before they moved him to the 'pen. I think this contract is a bit generous in the abstract, unnecessary in the immediate, and loaded with backfire potential- which is saying a lot for a middle reliever. It could also be fine if Dayton Moore can trade Greg Holland or Kelvin Herrera for a useful position player. Moore has every chance to get this one right, but even coming off a World Series appearance, I can't say I think he will.
12/3: Braves sign OF Nick Markakis, 4 years, $44M. We all assumed Markakis was going back to Baltimore, and I think that's because he's just not that interesting a player and putting more thought into it wasn't fun for anyone. He's a good but declining defensive right fielder. He draws walks but doesn't hit for much power or put up great batting averages. He's a guy who will play every day and won't make or break your team. He's worth the $11M salary, but most players like this don't warrant a 4-year commitment. Atlanta's a work in progress right now, as are all teams, but it seems like this has to be a precursor to an Upton or Gattis trade. Just as we have to factor this signing into the Heyward trade, whatever happens next is more interesting than this. John Hart and the Braves didn't lose or win here, but Markakis's presence will affect my judging of their future moves' winningness or lositude.
12/4: Mariners sign OF Nelson Cruz, 4 years, $57M. The Mariners needed homers, so they signed the best home run hitter of 2014. Sometimes this is easy. They'll be getting Cruz's mid to late 30's, which is not ideal, but other than Victor Martinez I'm not sure one could name a better free agent fit for Seattle. Their Cano/Felix window won't stay open forever, so good on Jack Z for making the addition.
12/5: Yankees sign LHP Andrew Miller, 4 years, $36M. You never want to be the team that gives out this kind of contract. It says your player development has failed so hard you don't even have usable bullpen arms to call up. It also says, in order to get the best available reliever, you have to give him multiple years and subject yourself to the vagaries of inconsistent health and performance synonymous with relief pitchers- which increase exponentially with every year on the deal. Miller might remain a shutdown bullpen guy for the entirety of the contract, but history suggests he'll turn into a pumpkin sooner or later. Also, I don't even get the point of doing this if you're the Yankees. The games Miller pitches in in 2015 will probably not be important ones, so why pay anyone big money to do it?
12/5: In a three-way trade, Yankees send RHP Shane Greene to Tigers, who send LHP Robbie Ray and IF Domingo Leyba to Diamondbacks, who send SS Didi Gregorius to Yankees. So now that Robbie Ray has been traded in consecutive winters for valuable players (Doug Fister last year, Shane Greene now) I decided to give Ray a second look. He'll pitch next year at 23 and has pitched well at every stop in the minors, always young for his league. His K/BB ratio took a hit last year in triple-A, but he's still a pretty good bet to be a major league starting pitcher. Throw in Leyba, a legit shortstop prospect who's a few years away, and that's value for the D-Backs. Shane Greene, the new Tiger, is already a controllable major league starting pitcher and that's exactly what they needed. And the Yankees got their new shortstop in Gregorius, a glove-first 24-year-old with four years of team control left. I like this trade the most for the Tigers, because they just completed their 2015 rotation and it's barely December. If the Yankees dive headfirst into the pitching market and sign everybody they can make up for the loss of Greene, but their rotation is in shambles at the moment. They have to be the loser here.
If previous years are any indication, starting tomorrow we're going to have a spike in trade and free agent activity. I'll be here for it as it happens.
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