I've got 5 days until the regular season starts, so it's time to interrupt this weekly Idol nonsense with something I actually care about: Which group of millionaires I don't know personally will hoist an overly elaborate trophy in October! This series of posts is made possible by Tim Dierkes of MLBTraderumors.com, whose hard work on the "Offseason in Review" series makes bums like myself capable of sounding knowledgeable. Baseball-reference.com and Baseballprospectus.com also played a role. In an effort to get this all done before the first pitch, I'm going to start with the division that's the hardest to predict, so we'll start with the suddenly-interesting AL East.
First place: Tampa Bay Rays
Last season: 90-72, 3rd place
Notable acquisitions: Signed FA SP The Former Fausto Carmona, 1B James Loney, IF Kelly Johnson. Re-signed UT Luke Scott, RP's Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, and Fernando Rodney. Acquired SS Yunel Escobar from Miami. Acquired OF Wil Myers and prospects from Kansas City.
Notable losses: SP James Shields, 1B Carlos Pena, UT Jeff Keppinger, OF B.J. Upton, RP's J.P. Howell and Wade Davis.
The Rays have replaced the Oakland A's as the perennially-contending young team that rebuilds on the fly and is still a factor every year. This winter, the headlines were the loss of Upton to free agency and the cashing in of Shields and Davis for a group of young, cheap, talented players led by Wil Myers. Myers and holdover Desmond Jennings stand a chance of replacing Upton's production, and while the rotation would be better with Shields still in it, the depth of the Rays' pitching should continue to amaze.
Second place: New York Yankees
Last season: 95-67. Won AL East, beat Baltimore in ALDS, lost to Detroit in ALCS
Notable acquisitions: Signed FA 3B Kevin Youkilis, DH Travis Hafner, and OF's Juan Rivera and Matt Diaz. Re-signed FA SP's Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte, OF Ichiro Suzuki, and RP Mariano Rivera. Acquired OF Vernon Wells from The Red Team.
Notable losses: SP Freddy Garcia, RP Rafael Soriano, OF's Nick Swisher, Raul Ibanez, and Andruw Jones, 3B Eric Chavez, C Russell Martin.
There's not a lot to comment on with these moves, as the core of one of baseball's oldest teams comes back to give it one more go. The biggest issue is, and will continue to be, health. Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira are both out for at least two months, and Cap'n Jetes still can't run the bases on his rehabbed ankle. Factor in the losses of Swisher and Martin, and that's a loss of power that would cripple any team without a $180MM payroll. Phil Hughes won't be ready for the start of the season, and all those missed trades the Yanks could have made in years past by including Hughes or Joba Chamberlain look a lot worse in retrospect. Of course, I'm writing this in late March. The baseball season is long, and I expect talent to win out. C.C. Sabathia and Robinson Cano are still elite players- Cano among the five most valuable in the game- and as long as two or three of the team's other horses are healthy at any given time, I'm not exactly putting on my Yankees grave-dancing shoes yet.
Third place: Toronto Blue Jays
Last season: 73-89, 4th place
Notable acquisitions: Signed FA OF Melky Cabrera, IF's Mark Derosa and Maicer Izturis, C Henry Blanco. Re-signed RP Darren Oliver. Acquired SP R.A. Dickey and C's Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas from the New York Mets. Acquired SS Jose Reyes, SP's Josh Johnson and Mark Buerhle, and UT Emilio Bonifacio from Miami.
Notable losses: IF's Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson; SP's Henderson Alvarez and Carlos Villanueva, RP's Jason Frasor and Brandon Lyon, most of their top minor league prospects.
When GM Alex Anthopolous took over, he made the same promises of "Being able to spend when the time is right" that his predecessor made. This time, he followed through and rewrote the rules for when a team gets to say they're "All-in". It's hard enough to obtain an ace, let alone an ace and the two guys who follow him in the rotation. Throw in a perennial All-Star shortstop and a guy who was in the NL MVP discussion before his PED suspension, and it's easy to see why experts, pundits, and expert pundits have a hard time resisting the allure of this team. Even though I'm bullish on all their additions, I still look at a team that's going to have to improve by roughly 20 games to make the playoffs. It's not impossible, but it can't all be the new guys making the difference. Colby Rasmus has to relearn how to hit. Ricky Romero needs to pitch his way back from baseball oblivion. And it'd be nice if Brett Lawrie got healthy, or if Josh Johnson and Jose Bautista stayed that way. Barring all that (Or dueling Cy-Young seasons out of Morrow, Dickey, and Johnson), I pronounce this team overhyped.
Fourth place: Baltimore Orioles
Last season: 93-69, 2nd place. Won the Wild Card game vs. Texas, lost in ALDS to the Yankees.
Notable acquisitions: None.
Notable losses: 1B Mark Reynolds, SP Joe Saunders.
Baltimore was the bane of statheads last year, staying on a 90+-win pace all year despite having a negative run differential until late summer. How it happened is still kind of a mystery, but their anomalous success in games decided by one run points to a deep bullpen and a manager who knows how to use it. That said, that's probably enough to get you to a .600 win percentage. The O's were 29-9 last year in one-run games and that is unsustainable. There's positive momentum here, what with the team's first playoff appearance since 1997 and the arrival of kind-of-a-big-deal prospects Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy, but without any roster reinforcements to counteract the natural regression to the mean, it should surprise nobody if the O's win about 80 games.
Fifth place: Boston Red Sox
Last season: 69-93, 5th place
Notable acquisitions: Signed free agents OF Shane Victorino, SP Ryan Dempster, OF Johnny Gomes, SS Stephen Drew, C David Ross, C/1B Mike Napoli, RP Koji Uehara. Re-signed FA DH David Ortiz. Acquired RP Joel Hanrahan from Pittsburgh. Acquired manager John Farrell from Toronto.
Notable losses: SP Daisuke Matsuzaka, RP Mark Melancon, OF Cody Ross, IF Mike Aviles.
Not listed above is the franchise makeover trade from last August, where the Red Sox traded Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, and Carl Crawford to the Dodgers for salary relief, a pair of interesting young pitchers, and some filler. While they wait for Allan Webster and Rubby de la Rosa to develop, they'll count on bounceback seasons from Clay Buchholtz, Jon Lester, and John Lackey. Ryan Dempster is supposed to provide support, but based on his AL debut last year with Texas, I'm not optimistic. They did better on the offensive side: Mike Napoli came cheap and should hit some bombs, Stephen Drew is an intriguing stopgap at short until one of their young players claims the job, and re-signing Ortiz just seems like the thing to do. The big issue is twofold: The unpredictability of all five starting pitchers, and the age issues exacerbated by signing Dempster and Victorino. Will the Red Sox be better than their 2012 selves? I lean towards yes. But are they better than any other team in their division? I don't think so.
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